LaxPower Back-Up Stick

U.S. Adds 1.4 Million New Jobs in August, Showing Slow Recovery https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/09/04 ... oronavirus

Matnum PI wrote: ↑Fri Sep 04, 2020 9:22 am U.S. Adds 1.4 Million New Jobs in August, Showing Slow Recovery https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/09/04 ... oronavirus

Huh? Dow futures are up 200 points after unemployment rate falls more than expected.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/03/stock-m ... -news.html

Pete, you sure have quite the investment in touch.

One mention of the market from you and it goes in the tank.

Maybe you are walking on the beach looking for dead sharks and things will turn around by the time you get back.

I'm certain that PBE (were he here then) and many of our other erstwhile Trumpublicons used to VERY quickly jump on financial news like this as YUGE positive during Obama's administration...

Oh, wait...

..

njbill wrote: ↑Fri Sep 04, 2020 10:29 am Pete, you sure have quite the investment in touch.

One mention of the market from you and it goes in the tank.

Maybe you are walking on the beach looking for dead sharks and things will turn around by the time you get back.

Patience, grasshopper.

Aren’t you guys in mourning today?

I guess the market is reacting to reports that Trump won’t accept the election results and will try to start a revolution.

A lot of workers are about to be unemployed by Nov3rd. Who do you think they will blame and who do you think they will vote for?

https://bethesdamagazine.com/bethesda-b ... dquarters/

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronaviru ... c-downturn

https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/25/business ... index.html

https://www.kiplinger.com/economic-forecasts/gdp


Wall Street vs Main Street

https://www.wsj.com/articles/jpmorgan-i ... yURL_share

What a surprise.... misusing the PPP program

CU88 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 04, 2020 11:46 am A lot of workers are about to be unemployed by Nov3rd. Who do you think they will blame and who do you think they will vote for?

https://bethesdamagazine.com/bethesda-b ... dquarters/

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronaviru ... c-downturn

https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/25/business ... index.html

https://www.kiplinger.com/economic-forecasts/gdp


Wall Street vs Main Street

Is that the Main Street that has been torched, looted, and destroyed by Democrats? Lotsa jobs lost there.

https://thehill.com/policy/finance/5155 ... illion-cbo

I hope Joe has a plan to dig out of this hole.

cradleandshoot wrote: ↑Wed Sep 09, 2020 7:33 am https://thehill.com/policy/finance/5155 ... illion-cbo

I hope Joe has a plan to dig out of this hole.

I hope you’re right Cradle. If you’re wrong and we have to rely on Mitch and the Duce the mantra will be CUT TAXES!, and all know how that’s worked.

cradleandshoot wrote: ↑Wed Sep 09, 2020 7:33 am https://thehill.com/policy/finance/5155 ... illion-cbo

I hope Joe has a plan to dig out of this hole.

Joe's plan will be to eat soup dinner at 4 pm at The Villages in Florida. He isn't gonna be in DC, I keep having to tell you.

The Trumper is in for 4 more; bank on it.

“Bank on it.”

Will that be Deutsche Bank or some Russian bank?

Edelman Financial Engines
Sept. 8, 2020

As you know, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all steadily – and rapidly – climbed over the past five months, and the Dow and S&P both reached new all-time highs last Wednesday.

As stock prices have been rising, our concern has been rising, too. Almost every week on my radio show, you’ve heard me note the disconnect between the stock market and the economy.

The struggling economy due to Covid-19 has left 10 million unemployed and caused a 90% drop in travel (hitting cruise lines, airlines, hotels and restaurants), closures of public venues (sports arenas, theaters, museums and shopping malls) and more. Some 20% of small businesses have already closed, and 65% say they might by year-end; 8,000 hotels face closure this month alone. The sharp drop in business and employment has reduced tax revenue, creating 20% budget shortfalls for states, cities and towns nationwide. Amtrak just announced it’s laying off 10% of its workforce; airlines are doing the same, as are city transit systems, including those in New York and Washington, DC. School budgets from K-12 to universities are being cut, too, with both sports and degree programs being cancelled. Everyone’s calling for Congress to provide another stimulus package, but so far Capitol Hill remains gridlocked.

The three major market indexes have been oblivious to all this: They’ve each posted the highest five-month percentage gains since 1938! Indeed, as of last Wednesday, the Dow was up 50% since the March 23 low, the S&P 500 was up 53% and the Nasdaq was up 72%. In August alone, the S&P 500 rose 7%, the Dow went up 8% and the Nasdaq jumped 10%. All that would be hard to do during even excellent economic times. In the midst of a pandemic, it’s simply unfathomable.

Lots of investors realize this, demonstrated by the fact that measures of volatility have been rising along with the stock market. It’s rare for volatility to increase at the same time as stocks, but that’s what has been happening. In fact, not since the Dot-Com Bubble has the Volatility Index, or VIX, risen more than 5% at the same time the S&P rose more than 1% to a record high. Historically, when this happens, the market falls the following month.

And that’s exactly what the market did after stock prices reached yet another all-time high last Wednesday. The next day, the Dow fell 3%, the S&P 500 fell 4.3% and the Nasdaq fell 6.2%. They experienced further losses on Friday and again today, resulting in the worst three-day period for the Dow and S&P since the second week of June, and the worst for the Nasdaq since the third week of March.

We aren’t the only ones expressing concern. E-Trade released a survey early last week showing that, for the first time in years, a majority of financial advisors are now bearish. Tiger 21, an organization of multimillionaires, said last week that its members have raised their cash holdings to 19% of total assets. And hedging hit an all-time high before Thursday’s decline – higher than during the 2008 Obama-McCain election, and even higher than the 2016 Clinton-Trump election. Volatility in the dollar yen futures market is also at the highest level since 1999.

And all this came right before September, notorious for being the worst month for the stock market. Since 1950, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac, the Dow has declined an average of 0.8% in September, while the S&P 500 has fallen an average of 0.5%. There are lots of theories as to why this occurs, but there’s no assurance it will occur every year – or even during this one. (Past performance does not guarantee future results. Or, as Mark Twain put it, “October: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August and February.”)

As we’ve said before, we’re not trying to scare you; we’re trying to prepare you. The market’s big drop on Thursday, Friday and today shouldn’t be a surprise to you. Given our warnings to you for the past five months, your reaction to last week’s volatility should have been, “I’m surprised it didn’t fall sooner,” rather than “Whaaaat!?”

Already facing a dire financial reality, states have had yet another significant fiscal and administrative burden placed upon them by the recent presidential order to provide certain unemployment benefits by using disaster-relief funds and a new contribution by states.

In the recent report on 2nd quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP), state and local spending declined at a 5.6 percent rate. The national unemployment rate is 10.2 percent — still above the peak during the Great Recession — and is even higher in many areas.

“Top economists including Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, former Chairman Ben Bernanke and the leading ratings agencies agree that helping states, territories, counties, cities and towns will blunt the worst effects of the recession and help build a stronger recovery,” the associations said. “There is wide bipartisan agreement that state and local governments came into this recession with unprecedented rainy-day reserves to help deal with the next downturn. No one could have anticipated a once-in-a-century pandemic combined with the worst economic conditions since the Great Depression, but with lives and livelihoods on the line, state and local governments are stepping up and answering the call.

https://www.nga.org/news/press-releases ... -position/

From today's NYT:

A Free Market Manifesto That Changed the World, Reconsidered

Milton Friedman’s libertarian economics influenced presidents and inspired “greed is good.” So what did Friedman get right — and wrong? Today’s business leaders and economists weigh in.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/11/busi ... iness.html

At DealBook, we wanted to mark the occasion by stirring a series of discussions and debates. So, in conjunction with The Times Magazine, we assembled 22 experts — including C.E.O.s, Nobel laureate economists and top think-tank leaders — and asked them to respond to Friedman’s essay. Some cited specific passages, and some took on (and took issue with) Friedman’s entire argument.

You can read the original essay in its entirety here: https://www.nytimes.com/1970/09/13/arch ... is-to.html. Below are quotations from Friedman’s landmark essay, along with the experts’ responses.

Really worth your time to read the comments in the article...

Why is the market at 27,600? I thought we were in a depression?

Any questions?