All things CoronaVirus

[Kismet]

Kinsa Health tracking map which is produced from internet-connected thermometers which is beginning to show possible slowing of infections (via fever tracking). A database of daily fever readings shows that the numbers declined as people disappeared indoors.

https://healthweather.us/

Also check out this graph of NYC v Bay Area where the mayor mandated shelter in place orders on March 16

[foreverlax]

Hey Bill -- we clearly need to do all of the above to get past this thing

Stay safe my legal friend.

gg

Hate when the parents argue....

[Bart]

Kinsa Health tracking map which is produced from internet-connected thermometers which is beginning to show possible slowing of infections (via fever tracking). A database of daily fever readings shows that the numbers declined as people disappeared indoors.

https://healthweather.us/

Also check out this graph of NYC v Bay Area where the mayor mandated shelter in place orders on March 16

Welcome to the world of big data.

[runrussellrun]

Here are the numbers in the US I have been following on Worldometers since March 18:

Date, new deaths, new cases

Mar.18, 44, 2954
19 61 4606
20 49 5604
21 68 6728
22 117 9339
23 140 10168
24 225 11074
25 247 13347
26 266 17027
27 400 18691
28 525 19185
29 362 19710
30 573 20071

Sorry for the compressed presentation. I can't ever get this site to present my lists as I type them up. Nonetheless the numbers speak for themselves from a trend standpoint. Worldometers sites their sources so the figures are probably reasonable. I leave it to whoever sees them to interpret them as they see fit, including R3 who probably still thinks Furman should be a top twenty team.

Considering the CDC has this season's FLU number deaths anywhere from 20000 to 40000......big swing....COULD it not be possible that the COVID death count, has the same "accurate" tallyman at the CDC? Again, I am just talking USA. Seems like much spitballing.

I really hope I am wrong.......that deaths due to this horrible attack on the unwell's lungs will NOT even come close to the projections.....seems like you guys are hoping the numbers, like it's some knife reward sales contest, reach those projections. Odd. It is still taking mostly the unwell, the old.

Beyond that, if you , collective, aren't interested in numbers, data, and how its gathered, etc. Didn't the Wuhan hospital reporting system fail early this winter in China? Why did it fail?

[Bart]

Here are the numbers in the US I have been following on Worldometers since March 18:

Date, new deaths, new cases

Mar.18, 44, 2954
19 61 4606
20 49 5604
21 68 6728
22 117 9339
23 140 10168
24 225 11074
25 247 13347
26 266 17027
27 400 18691
28 525 19185
29 362 19710
30 573 20071

Sorry for the compressed presentation. I can't ever get this site to present my lists as I type them up. Nonetheless the numbers speak for themselves from a trend standpoint. Worldometers sites their sources so the figures are probably reasonable. I leave it to whoever sees them to interpret them as they see fit, including R3 who probably still thinks Furman should be a top twenty team.

Considering the CDC has this season's FLU number deaths anywhere from 20000 to 40000......big swing....COULD it not be possible that the COVID death count, has the same "accurate" tallyman at the CDC? Again, I am just talking USA. Seems like much spitballing.

I really hope I am wrong.......that deaths due to this horrible attack on the unwell's lungs will NOT even come close to the projections.....seems like you guys are hoping the numbers, like it's some knife reward sales contest, reach those projections. Odd. It is still taking mostly the unwell, the old.

Beyond that, if you , collective, aren't interested in numbers, data, and how its gathered, etc. Didn't the Wuhan hospital reporting system fail early this winter in China? Why did it fail?

Honest question: what would you think the variability should be? How tight should the numbers be?

I will agree that the numbers could swing like you said. These are all just models right now and the COVID-19 model makes, imho, a bunch of assumptions that are completely untested.

[runrussellrun]

The White House’s coronavirus coordinator on Monday warned that the pandemic could kill as many as 200,000 Americans in even a best-case scenario as state officials intensified their stay-at-home directives — further erasing any hope that the country would have a speedy recovery from the global health crisis.

As deaths across the world from covid-19 climbed above 37,000 and those in the United States rose to more than 2,900, federal and state officials offered grim warnings that the country should expect things to get worse before they get better.

Deborah Birx, the coronavirus coordinator, told NBC News that the United States could record 200,000 deaths even “if we do things together well, almost perfectly.” President Trump, who a day earlier announced that officials would extend their guidance to Americans to practice social distancing through the end of April, said the move was necessary to prevent catastrophe: He now expects that virus-related deaths will not peak for an additional two weeks.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national ... story.html

By comparison, South Korea, which identified its first case on the same day as the United States, has fewer than 10,000 cases and fewer than 200 deaths.

The difference?

South Korea responded immediately while Trump delayed action for 6 precious weeks while he indulged in his narcissistic delusions.

If you supported Trump, you share in the moral culpability for his catastrophic failure of leadership ... and possibly the deaths of tens of thousands of innocent American souls.

We warned you ... Trump was unfit to be president. Your failure to heed that warning has resulted in this unfolding tragedy.

DocBarrister

Possibly........you pear forn lovers really really wish this to happen. You will have an investigation into the delay.

Meanwhile. What is Mexico up too? And the rest of our neighbors in the Southern Americans ? They shutting everything down? Yet, not a word of vitriol towards those leaders.

[Trinity]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/30/us/p ... virus.html

Trump’s defense is usually an attack on a woman.

[youthathletics]

How many people, in the USA, have tested positive to the annual INFLUENZA, this season ? Can't find that stat. Please help.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

Wait....what, the CDC, has a 20,000 body count difference....for just THIS FLU season ?

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-sho ... delers-say

This year's flu season started picking up steam around Thanksgiving.

The CDC doesn't test everyone who has flu symptoms to be certain they really have flu, rather than some other viral infection. Still, the CDC estimates are reckoned to be pretty accurate, and they are updated regularly.

"So far this season we've had between 30 and 40 million illnesses in the United States," Martin says.


Of that number, about half were ill enough to seek medical care, and between 300,000 to 500,000 people required hospitalization.


The CDC estimates that there have been 20,000 to 40,000 deaths in the United States so far this year.

Just for comparison, that's a thousand times more deaths in the United States than have been blamed on the coronavirus so far.

Anti-Vaxxer

Oligarch . Of Pretend. you ain't one of them, no matter how much you think you "earn" Keep it up. No room in the "ark" for you and I. Only difference is, I realize it. you don't.

Good luck trying to have a rational conversation on this specific topic. I tried it a couple weeks ago and got the same push back. Most here are taking samples from a small window of time. I am with you RRR, until all the data is settled.....maybe in a year It'll all settle and we'll know for certain.

[runrussellrun]

Considering the CDC has this season's FLU number deaths anywhere from 20000 to 40000......big swing....COULD it not be possible that the COVID death count, has the same "accurate" tallyman at the CDC? Again, I am just talking USA. Seems like much spitballing.

I really hope I am wrong.......that deaths due to this horrible attack on the unwell's lungs will NOT even come close to the projections.....seems like you guys are hoping the numbers, like it's some knife reward sales contest, reach those projections. Odd. It is still taking mostly the unwell, the old.

Beyond that, if you , collective, aren't interested in numbers, data, and how its gathered, etc. Didn't the Wuhan hospital reporting system fail early this winter in China? Why did it fail?

Honest question: what would you think the variability should be? None. How tight should the numbers be? I like to know what the numbers mean. Most don't. IE: A 90 year old is told they tested positive for covid, but has zero symptoms. Upon hearing the news, the die of an apparent heart attack. What is listed on the death certificate?

I will agree that the numbers could swing like you said. These are all just models right now and the COVID-19 model makes, imho, a bunch of assumptions that are completely untested.
[/quote]

In the USA, the third highest killer is from a product that was once illegal due to a US Constitution, ..........oh, it's suddenly, we can't worry about EVERYTHING.


got it.

[Bart]

Considering the CDC has this season's FLU number deaths anywhere from 20000 to 40000......big swing....COULD it not be possible that the COVID death count, has the same "accurate" tallyman at the CDC? Again, I am just talking USA. Seems like much spitballing.

I really hope I am wrong.......that deaths due to this horrible attack on the unwell's lungs will NOT even come close to the projections.....seems like you guys are hoping the numbers, like it's some knife reward sales contest, reach those projections. Odd. It is still taking mostly the unwell, the old.

Beyond that, if you , collective, aren't interested in numbers, data, and how its gathered, etc. Didn't the Wuhan hospital reporting system fail early this winter in China? Why did it fail?

Honest question: what would you think the variability should be? None. How tight should the numbers be? I like to know what the numbers mean. Most don't. IE: A 90 year old is told they tested positive for covid, but has zero symptoms. Upon hearing the news, the die of an apparent heart attack. What is listed on the death certificate?

I will agree that the numbers could swing like you said. These are all just models right now and the COVID-19 model makes, imho, a bunch of assumptions that are completely untested.

In the USA, the third highest killer is from a product that was once illegal due to a US Constitution, ..........oh, it's suddenly, we can't worry about EVERYTHING.


got it.
[/quote]
Got it. Thanks. I do not believe there will never be any variability in numbers. Your 90 yo example points to that. There will always be ambiguity in some cases. I do not see how you remove the ambiguity in a case like you proposed. If you make a rubric indicating that since he tested positive it is a COVID19 incident you may over estimate the number of fatalities. If you make a rubric in the other direction, you underestimate the number of fatalities. There, imo, will always be incidences like this and hence why the models so a degree of variability.

What these numbers mean are, to me, more of a frame work of what is going on not an exact snap shot. But your point is taken.

[Peter Brown]

Considering the CDC has this season's FLU number deaths anywhere from 20000 to 40000......big swing....COULD it not be possible that the COVID death count, has the same "accurate" tallyman at the CDC? Again, I am just talking USA. Seems like much spitballing.

I really hope I am wrong.......that deaths due to this horrible attack on the unwell's lungs will NOT even come close to the projections.....seems like you guys are hoping the numbers, like it's some knife reward sales contest, reach those projections. Odd. It is still taking mostly the unwell, the old.

Beyond that, if you , collective, aren't interested in numbers, data, and how its gathered, etc. Didn't the Wuhan hospital reporting system fail early this winter in China? Why did it fail?

Honest question: what would you think the variability should be? None. How tight should the numbers be? I like to know what the numbers mean. Most don't. IE: A 90 year old is told they tested positive for covid, but has zero symptoms. Upon hearing the news, the die of an apparent heart attack. What is listed on the death certificate?

I will agree that the numbers could swing like you said. These are all just models right now and the COVID-19 model makes, imho, a bunch of assumptions that are completely untested.

In the USA, the third highest killer is from a product that was once illegal due to a US Constitution, ..........oh, it's suddenly, we can't worry about EVERYTHING.


got it.
[/quote]



CNN Alyson Camerata this morning kept showing some tweets from some random doctor supposedly in NY, about how this doctor had to intubate a colleague, and Alyson saying how "our entire medical system is on the verge of collapse". jfc

My cousin went to NY a few days ago as a doctor volunteer from DC; he would no more be filmed on a camera than he would become a New York Giants fan. He's too busy actually working, than to have free time to virtue signal to the press about how Trump stinks. Brought his own supplies with his colleagues, they hit the ground running. You will not catch him on television or Twitter, I assure you.

I swear every time you can not hate our press more, they ratchet it up a notch or two. Disgusting 'fear porn', as someone here said a few days ago.

[DocBarrister]

By comparison, South Korea, which identified its first case on the same day as the United States, has fewer than 10,000 cases and fewer than 200 deaths.

The difference?

South Korea responded immediately while Trump delayed action for 6 precious weeks while he indulged in his narcissistic delusions.

S.Korea is currently listed as having 125 new cases on World Meter, so things might be breaking out again there.

Don’t know about that. South Korea has been fairly flat in their daily new case count for weeks.

It’s telling that 24 states had more new cases yesterday than all of South Korea, a very densely populated country.

Over 20,000 new cases versus 125. That pretty much tells the story of Trump’s incompetence.

DocBarrister

[foreverlax]

Considering the CDC has this season's FLU number deaths anywhere from 20000 to 40000......big swing....COULD it not be possible that the COVID death count, has the same "accurate" tallyman at the CDC? Again, I am just talking USA. Seems like much spitballing.

I really hope I am wrong.......that deaths due to this horrible attack on the unwell's lungs will NOT even come close to the projections.....seems like you guys are hoping the numbers, like it's some knife reward sales contest, reach those projections. Odd. It is still taking mostly the unwell, the old.

Beyond that, if you , collective, aren't interested in numbers, data, and how its gathered, etc. Didn't the Wuhan hospital reporting system fail early this winter in China? Why did it fail?

Honest question: what would you think the variability should be? None. How tight should the numbers be? I like to know what the numbers mean. Most don't. IE: A 90 year old is told they tested positive for covid, but has zero symptoms. Upon hearing the news, the die of an apparent heart attack. What is listed on the death certificate?

I will agree that the numbers could swing like you said. These are all just models right now and the COVID-19 model makes, imho, a bunch of assumptions that are completely untested.

In the USA, the third highest killer is from a product that was once illegal due to a US Constitution, ..........oh, it's suddenly, we can't worry about EVERYTHING.


got it.

CNN Alyson Camerata this morning kept showing some tweets from some random doctor supposedly in NY, about how this doctor had to intubate a colleague, and Alyson saying how "our entire medical system is on the verge of collapse". jfc

My cousin went to NY a few days ago as a doctor volunteer from DC; he would no more be filmed on a camera than he would become a New York Giants fan. He's too busy actually working, than to have free time to virtue signal to the press about how Trump stinks. Brought his own supplies with his colleagues, they hit the ground running. You will not catch him on television or Twitter, I assure you.

I swear every time you can not hate our press more, they ratchet it up a notch or two. Disgusting 'fear porn', as someone here said a few days ago.
[/quote]

...and yet, your point doesn't address the point of the story - our healthcare system will be swamped.

[6ftstick]

(CNN)Access to abortion is an essential service and a fundamental human right. Period. The denial of it, including in times of global crisis like the Covid-19 pandemic, constitutes cruel, inhuman and degrading treatment.

... Abortion services are essential services. Cutting back access to them violates fundamental human rights and will undoubtedly lead to a sharp increase in unsafe abortion procedures. And in a world where global health systems are already overwhelmed with Covid-19 responses, access to emergency medical care to manage the consequences of unsafe abortions will diminish further.

... These are exactly the types of actions that human rights experts have been warning about: states of emergency cannot be used to curtail fundamental human rights. Emergency declarations should never function as a cover for repressive action under the guise of protecting people's health.

... So let's call these restrictions what they really are: an opportunistic moment for a radical right-wing agenda to restrict women's rights, which, leading up to now, we have seen in every aspect of this administration ....

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/28/opinions ... index.html

DocBarrister

2600 babies were aborted yesterday. 2600 will be aborted today and 2600 will be aborted tomorrow. And everyday after that. A little ghoulish to suggest we need more of this at the same time ranting about the death toll of coronavirus.

[6ftstick]

How many people, in the USA, have tested positive to the annual INFLUENZA, this season ? Can't find that stat. Please help.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

Wait....what, the CDC, has a 20,000 body count difference....for just THIS FLU season ?

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-sho ... delers-say

This year's flu season started picking up steam around Thanksgiving.

The CDC doesn't test everyone who has flu symptoms to be certain they really have flu, rather than some other viral infection. Still, the CDC estimates are reckoned to be pretty accurate, and they are updated regularly.

"So far this season we've had between 30 and 40 million illnesses in the United States," Martin says.


Of that number, about half were ill enough to seek medical care, and between 300,000 to 500,000 people required hospitalization.


The CDC estimates that there have been 20,000 to 40,000 deaths in the United States so far this year.

Just for comparison, that's a thousand times more deaths in the United States than have been blamed on the coronavirus so far.

3000 dead as of tonight. This year's flu is only 10 times more. The flu season is basically over. It is not clear coronavirus has a season. Everyone thinks it may slowdown over the summer, but that is very far from clear. That is also a slowdown - NOT A HALT. We will lose a lot more before this is over.

Only 10X more. Like it's nothing.

[MDlaxfan76]

Not sure PB will actually care until his own local health system is swamped and someone he cares about needs help and can't get it.

Even then he'll be telling us that the media is 'fear porn' and Trump and DeSantis are heroes.

Nah, I'll take that back, PB probably does care, he just won't be able to say that his pal Ron should have handled differently.

[MDlaxfan76]

(CNN)Access to abortion is an essential service and a fundamental human right. Period. The denial of it, including in times of global crisis like the Covid-19 pandemic, constitutes cruel, inhuman and degrading treatment.

... Abortion services are essential services. Cutting back access to them violates fundamental human rights and will undoubtedly lead to a sharp increase in unsafe abortion procedures. And in a world where global health systems are already overwhelmed with Covid-19 responses, access to emergency medical care to manage the consequences of unsafe abortions will diminish further.

... These are exactly the types of actions that human rights experts have been warning about: states of emergency cannot be used to curtail fundamental human rights. Emergency declarations should never function as a cover for repressive action under the guise of protecting people's health.

... So let's call these restrictions what they really are: an opportunistic moment for a radical right-wing agenda to restrict women's rights, which, leading up to now, we have seen in every aspect of this administration ....

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/28/opinions ... index.html

DocBarrister

2600 babies were aborted yesterday. 2600 will be aborted today and 2600 will be aborted tomorrow. And everyday after that. A little ghoulish to suggest we need more of this at the same time ranting about the death toll of coronavirus.

You'd rather that they be done third trimester?

[6ftstick]

The White House’s coronavirus coordinator on Monday warned that the pandemic could kill as many as 200,000 Americans in even a best-case scenario as state officials intensified their stay-at-home directives — further erasing any hope that the country would have a speedy recovery from the global health crisis.

As deaths across the world from covid-19 climbed above 37,000 and those in the United States rose to more than 2,900, federal and state officials offered grim warnings that the country should expect things to get worse before they get better.

Deborah Birx, the coronavirus coordinator, told NBC News that the United States could record 200,000 deaths even “if we do things together well, almost perfectly.” President Trump, who a day earlier announced that officials would extend their guidance to Americans to practice social distancing through the end of April, said the move was necessary to prevent catastrophe: He now expects that virus-related deaths will not peak for an additional two weeks.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national ... story.html

By comparison, South Korea, which identified its first case on the same day as the United States, has fewer than 10,000 cases and fewer than 200 deaths.

The difference?

South Korea responded immediately while Trump delayed action for 6 precious weeks while he indulged in his narcissistic delusions.

If you supported Trump, you share in the moral culpability for his catastrophic failure of leadership ... and possibly the deaths of tens of thousands of innocent American souls.

We warned you ... Trump was unfit to be president. Your failure to heed that warning has resulted in this unfolding tragedy.

DocBarrister

By comparison

South Korea is the size of Missouri and has 1/6th the population.

And still as of yesterday we've tested a million people they've tested only 395,000. Thats why we have more cases.

[MDlaxfan76]

How many people, in the USA, have tested positive to the annual INFLUENZA, this season ? Can't find that stat. Please help.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

Wait....what, the CDC, has a 20,000 body count difference....for just THIS FLU season ?

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-sho ... delers-say

This year's flu season started picking up steam around Thanksgiving.

The CDC doesn't test everyone who has flu symptoms to be certain they really have flu, rather than some other viral infection. Still, the CDC estimates are reckoned to be pretty accurate, and they are updated regularly.

"So far this season we've had between 30 and 40 million illnesses in the United States," Martin says.


Of that number, about half were ill enough to seek medical care, and between 300,000 to 500,000 people required hospitalization.


The CDC estimates that there have been 20,000 to 40,000 deaths in the United States so far this year.

Just for comparison, that's a thousand times more deaths in the United States than have been blamed on the coronavirus so far.

3000 dead as of tonight. This year's flu is only 10 times more. The flu season is basically over. It is not clear coronavirus has a season. Everyone thinks it may slowdown over the summer, but that is very far from clear. That is also a slowdown - NOT A HALT. We will lose a lot more before this is over.

Only 10X more. Like it's nothing.

6ft, you've been on the board long enough to have seen the math. And unless you had your head stuck up some dark place the last 24 hours, you heard Birx say that if we do everything going forward "almost perfectly" we will be in the 100k-200k range. And it's well recognized that we aren't doing everything 'almost perfectly'. Trump may say everything's 'perfect' but we all do know better, and even Trump is telling the nation to stay home for another 30 days, with the potential of longer.

You know this.
So, please don't repeat the same dumb stuff just to troll.

[Peter Brown]

The White House’s coronavirus coordinator on Monday warned that the pandemic could kill as many as 200,000 Americans in even a best-case scenario as state officials intensified their stay-at-home directives — further erasing any hope that the country would have a speedy recovery from the global health crisis.

As deaths across the world from covid-19 climbed above 37,000 and those in the United States rose to more than 2,900, federal and state officials offered grim warnings that the country should expect things to get worse before they get better.

Deborah Birx, the coronavirus coordinator, told NBC News that the United States could record 200,000 deaths even “if we do things together well, almost perfectly.” President Trump, who a day earlier announced that officials would extend their guidance to Americans to practice social distancing through the end of April, said the move was necessary to prevent catastrophe: He now expects that virus-related deaths will not peak for an additional two weeks.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national ... story.html

By comparison, South Korea, which identified its first case on the same day as the United States, has fewer than 10,000 cases and fewer than 200 deaths.

The difference?

South Korea responded immediately while Trump delayed action for 6 precious weeks while he indulged in his narcissistic delusions.

If you supported Trump, you share in the moral culpability for his catastrophic failure of leadership ... and possibly the deaths of tens of thousands of innocent American souls.

We warned you ... Trump was unfit to be president. Your failure to heed that warning has resulted in this unfolding tragedy.

DocBarrister

By comparison

South Korea is the size of Missouri and has 1/6th the population.

And still as of yesterday we've tested a million people they've tested only 395,000. Thats why we have more cases.

I'm detecting positivity and hope from one group of Americans, negativity and fear from the other. Guess which one is more prone to authoritarianism?