Johns Hopkins 2023

[Sagittarius A*]

The Blue Hens present some issues. Face-off man at 56% but against their two toughest opponents he was slightly under 50%. Our crew has struggled the last few games since Dunn's effort against Cole. Kurtz and Ward certainly have eye-popping stats - 74 points combined in 7 games - not hard math. I would recommend guarding those two. They have a 50% EMO and they don't foul alot. 33 ground balls a game 15 turnovers a game. TO have any chance the possession battle has to lean Hopkins way to combat any fatigue issue. PM has certainly created a challenge - if they win they will hopefully carry some confidence up to Ann Arbor.

Well this game is certainly where the rubber hits the road. One thing that was smart about the Navy game was the way they played a lot of personnel. They were running essentially three midfields plus subbing people out on D. Among other things I thought they wore Navy out in the fourth quarter and also had Nawreski and their three top middies pretty much fresh for that final stretch, which really paid off for them.
I assume they will use a similar strategy tonight, but perhaps the team is not as worn down as they might normally be.
I did think Navy was more athletic and outplayed us between the lines. The Jays need to clean up all the unforced turnovers if they hope to win many games in the BIG. Not sure there are any easy teams in the BIG right now. Jays need to win tonight and win 3 in conference to be in good shape for a bid.

[51percentcorn]

Jays need to win tonight and win 3 in conference to be in good shape for a bid

To quote Kyle's mom Sheila Brovlovsky - "Wha Wha Wha What?"

Here are just 4 pearls of wisdom from the past 2-5 months

This looks to me like an active attempt to change the culture. Hiring a coach who doesn't actually care about the program probably reduced stress on both JB and RD.

If Daniels goal was to tank the program, he's well on his way to achieving it.

Let the program slip back and it's not a headache for him anymore. The problem is, once it tanks, it's hard to get it back up again. I suspect we're going to have to wait until he moves on before any realistic attempt is going to be made to bring our Lacrosse program back to prominence. Sorry I'm not more blindly optimistic, but I try to deal in realities.

Hey I would like them to win as much as anyone. I'd love to see some quality play from the stands while I'm out there freezing. But based on the last few years it's hard to be optimistic. Last year they couldn't clear the ball, they couldn't get ground balls, they were sloppy, etc. Poor poor fundamentals. And in their opening press conference the new coaches were so so over confident. It was like "we're going to score a lot of goals" and the past doesn't matter and we know what we're doing....and all we got was a team with poor fundamentals.
Coaches: This is easy. Reality: We have no idea what we're doing.
It's hard to watch a team with really bad fundamentals. First rule in sports: Don't beat yourself.
I have other issues as well. On top of that I don't think the HC really gives a damn one way or the other to be honest.
So, sorry, not optimistic.

Frankly, PM just plain scares me. I think we would have been much better off with Marr concerning recruits, transfers, and the roster overall.
The players also wanted Marr. If you go out on a limb with a hire, you better have results to show for it and so far they've been middling ~.500 or worse. The rest of the season projects to be about the same. I guess we'll see but it's hard to be optimistic at this point.

It definitely looks like a collision between the talent and the schedule coming up soon.
Given Hop has like zero preseason AA's (they don't seem to have any top 50 players although Degnon and Narewski are both pretty darn good) I think I would do everything I could to soften the schedule to try to achieve a winning record. The two games they won last year against Cuse and Loyola at home are now at their places and much much harder to win.

Back on the Divalproex again?

[DocBarrister]

PM wasn’t some cheap hire. They stole him away from Cornell. I’m not a big PM fan, but his hire was hardly a sign of indifference or antagonism towards the program.

Preseason AAs do not matter. I think Smith, Marcille, Mazzone, Collison, and Angelus (and maybe one or two others) are having AA-quality seasons.

Delaware, practically speaking, is a must-win game. B1G conference is brutal this season.

If I had to guess, I think the Blue Jays need four more wins (any four wins) to be an NCAA tournament bubble team, and five more wins (any five wins) to pretty much ensure they will play in May.

DocBarrister

[Sagittarius A*]

Have the last two seasons been disasters? Yes.
Has this season been an improvement so far? Again, yes, but there's still a long way to go.
I attribute the turnaround to adding both coaches Kelly and Crawley frankly. What has changed since last year? Essentially the additions of those two who have helped on both ends of the field, plus the additions of Collison and Melendez and finally, finally, waking up and starting Marcille in goal.
That has made all the difference.
PM and RD are along for the ride as far as I can tell, but again there's a long way to go this season, so we shall see.
I think things would have been better sooner, if not for those two, and there is much that should not be forgotten nor forgiven.

[DocBarrister]

Have the last two seasons been disasters? Yes.
Has this season been an improvement so far? Again, yes, but there's still a long way to go.
I attribute the turnaround to adding both coaches Kelly and Crawley frankly. What has changed since last year? Essentially the additions of those two who have helped on both ends of the field, plus the additions of Collison and Melendez and finally, finally, waking up and starting Marcille in goal.
That has made all the difference.
PM and RD are along for the ride as far as I can tell, but again there's a long way to go this season, so we shall see.
I think things would have been better sooner, if not for those two, and there is much that should not be forgotten nor forgiven.

As I said, I’m not a big PM fan. However, I think he deserves both credit for his team’s successes and blame for their failures.

Lots of lacrosse left to play, as Petro often remarked.

DocBarrister

[HopFan16]

plus the additions of Collison and Melendez

Really breezing by this point huh. Without those two you are definitely losing to Georgetown and maybe even to Syracuse and/or Navy too.

Coach Kelly has been a positive and energetic presence on the sideline — have heard good things about him. Giving him sole credit for Marcille's development, however, is nuts. You're taking all the agency away from the player and giving it to the magical volunteer assistant? You have no idea what's going on behind the scenes.

I like our offense this year better than last, but a lot of that has to do with personnel (namely those aforementioned two guys but also Angelus finally playing his natural position after being miscast as a midfielder for 2.5 seasons under two different coaching staffs). Crawley has a bright bright future as a coach — he's got head coach written all over him — but statistically the offense still has lots of room to improve. I think it'll continue to get better.

It's just funny to see someone try to give the credit to everyone other than the head coach — the assistants, the ball boy, the scorekeeper, the Cordish janitor, Cornell Willis — anyone and everyone except the guy who puts it all together. He's just "along for the ride." It's all just very transparent and immature.

[MDlaxfan76]

plus the additions of Collison and Melendez

Really breezing by this point huh. Without those two you are definitely losing to Georgetown and maybe even to Syracuse and/or Navy too.

Coach Kelly has been a positive and energetic presence on the sideline — have heard good things about him. Giving him sole credit for Marcille's development, however, is nuts. You're taking all the agency away from the player and giving it to the magical volunteer assistant? You have no idea what's going on behind the scenes.

I like our offense this year better than last, but a lot of that has to do with personnel (namely those aforementioned two guys but also Angelus finally playing his natural position after being miscast as a midfielder for 2.5 seasons under two different coaching staffs). Crawley has a bright bright future as a coach — he's got head coach written all over him — but statistically the offense still has lots of room to improve. I think it'll continue to get better.

It's just funny to see someone try to give the credit to everyone other than the head coach — the assistants, the ball boy, the scorekeeper, the Cordish janitor, Cornell Willis — anyone and everyone except the guy who puts it all together. He's just "along for the ride." It's all just very transparent and immature.

Obviously, Marcille’s play has been a huge positive, but it’s not like he didn’t have prior opportunities to prove he could be an elite performer… or just a 50+ % performer.

We don’t know whether simply more maturity, or off season training, or some other new influence is making the difference, but trying to blame coaches for not using him before is simply BS.

Better to just be glad he’s playing well.

[Sagittarius A*]

Obviously, Marcille’s play has been a huge positive, but it’s not like he didn’t have prior opportunities to prove he could be an elite performer… or just a 50+ % performer.

We don’t know whether simply more maturity, or off season training, or some other new influence is making the difference, but trying to blame coaches for not using him before is simply BS.

Better to just be glad he’s playing well.

I would dispute this. Marcille started two years ago to finish out the season and led the team to the BIG finals. His counterpart's record was never near .500. It wasn't hard to figure out who the better goalie was.

[MDlaxfan76]

Obviously, Marcille’s play has been a huge positive, but it’s not like he didn’t have prior opportunities to prove he could be an elite performer… or just a 50+ % performer.

We don’t know whether simply more maturity, or off season training, or some other new influence is making the difference, but trying to blame coaches for not using him before is simply BS.

Better to just be glad he’s playing well.

I would dispute this. Marcille started two years ago to finish out the season and led the team to the BIG finals. His counterpart's record was never near .500. It wasn't hard to figure out who the better goalie was.

What were his stats each year?

Of course, that doesn’t mean that with more time he wouldn’t have done better, separating from all others…but that didn’t happen. But let’s not claim he didn’t get the starts to prove it.

[nyjay]

I think it's a game Hop should win. But there's been a fair number of games over the last few years where they haven't won those types of games. I do think this year's team is a little different though and so I think they pull it out. I think with injuries, Navy is a little bit offensively challenged, but I think they'll put in a good defensive effort, leading to a fairly low scoring game. Bookmakers have it at Hop -5, with the O/U at 23.5 (which lines up perfectly with Doc's guess). I'd guess Hop to win but not cover and the under, 12-8.

51, if you're not going to give Doc credit for calling the Navy game, maybe I can get some?

Tonight, we have Hop at -1.5 with the O/U at 24.5. I think our boys will a little humbled by the performance they put in on Friday (and by last year's loss). I think they come out of the gate quickly, build up a decent size lead and then stave off a Hens' run in the fourth quarter. 15-12 Hop.

[nyjay]

Obviously, Marcille’s play has been a huge positive, but it’s not like he didn’t have prior opportunities to prove he could be an elite performer… or just a 50+ % performer.

We don’t know whether simply more maturity, or off season training, or some other new influence is making the difference, but trying to blame coaches for not using him before is simply BS.

Better to just be glad he’s playing well.

I would dispute this. Marcille started two years ago to finish out the season and led the team to the BIG finals. His counterpart's record was never near .500. It wasn't hard to figure out who the better goalie was.

Maybe my memory is fading, but didn't Marcille only start a handful of games before this year? And in at least one of them (MD, regular season), he was outstanding. So I'm not sure he really every had the opportunity (in games at least) to really prove himself. While it's impossible to know, I do tend to believe he would have outperformed Kirson last year if given the opportunity.

[gymman1031]

Predictions for Delaware game?

[molo]

Embarrassed by their lackluster but winning performance against the reeling Mids, the BJs will come out energized in the crisp evening air to stave off the visitors, who don’t look as good this year as they did last May despite returning most key players. Hopkins 14-10.

[jrn19]

These are Marcille's games prior to this year:

Maryland 2021 reg season: 11 saves, 14 GA, 44% SV%
Penn State 2021 B1G QF: 12 saves, 6 GA, 67% SV%
Rutgers 2021 B1G SF: 12 saves, 10 GA, 55% SV%
Maryland 2021 B1G CG: 3 saves, 12 GA, 20% SV%

Total: 38 saves, 42 GA, 48% sv%

That 48% was basically the exact number Kirson put up last year. If you use Lax Ref's excess saves per attempt, basically how many saves he made above what an average D1 goalie would have been expected to make, he was in the 30th percentile. Kirson last year was 42nd. Based on Marcille's past performance there wasn't much indication he'd be an upgrade over what Kirson was last year. Guess you could always argue for giving it a shot, but the evidence suggested and I'm presuming practice did as well you'd get similar results. And Kirson didn't really have any terrible games last year, just lot of not quite good enough, generally not the ones where you pull them for a goalie who you feel is about the same. But I understand the sentiment, however it feels very hindsight driven based on how Marcille is performing now. The evidence doesn't exist for this prior to 2023 though. Kirson had some great games at times himself. Also bad ones.

Marcille seemingly just got a lot better.

[Sagittarius A*]

These are Marcille's games prior to this year:

Maryland 2021 reg season: 11 saves, 14 GA, 44% SV%
Penn State 2021 B1G QF: 12 saves, 6 GA, 67% SV%
Rutgers 2021 B1G SF: 12 saves, 10 GA, 55% SV%
Maryland 2021 B1G CG: 3 saves, 12 GA, 20% SV%

Total: 38 saves, 42 GA, 48% sv%

That 48% was basically the exact number Kirson put up last year. If you use Lax Ref's excess saves per attempt, basically how many saves he made above what an average D1 goalie would have been expected to make, he was in the 30th percentile. Kirson last year was 42nd. Based on Marcille's past performance there wasn't much indication he'd be an upgrade over what Kirson was last year. Guess you could always argue for giving it a shot, but the evidence suggested and I'm presuming practice did as well you'd get similar results. And Kirson didn't really have any terrible games last year, just lot of not quite good enough, generally not the ones where you pull them for a goalie who you feel is about the same. But I understand the sentiment, however it feels very hindsight driven based on how Marcille is performing now. The evidence doesn't exist for this prior to 2023 though. Kirson had some great games at times himself. Also bad ones.

Marcille seemingly just got a lot better.

This is an example of how to misuse statistics. Two of Marcille's games were against one of the very best teams in the country, UMD, who almost won the NC that year. Nobody else did consistently great against them either. Another game was against Rutgers who had a very high powered offense and was also a playoff caliber team. This is one of those fallacies where you don't consider the quality of the opponent to generate your overall stats. Comparing these overall stats against the highest quality teams to Kirson's overall stats where he isn't playing that level of quality over the course of the season is ridiculous, unfair, and misleading.

[51percentcorn]

Hard to mis-use a 20% save percentage especially after your defense limits the opponent to 15 SOG. Unfortunately for Tim that was the last performance on tape. And in '22 how many practices did you observe exactly? And in '22 please enumerate the folloiwng games where a goalie would have made a diffrence - the 8 goal loss to Georgetown, the 5 goal loss to UNC that was at one time 14-6, the 11 goal loass to UVA, the 2 goal loss to Delaware where Kirson was above 50%, the 5 goal loss against Rutgers where Hopkins scored 7, the 15 goal loss to Maryland or the 5 goal loss to Maryland. The only 2 games where you have an argument is Navy and Ohio State. The ONLY game in the 9 losses where Hopkins scored more than 10 goals was the meaningless 11 th goal against Maryland. Kirson was not a solution but he was the furthest thing from the problem. Also the two biggest wins of the season - Loyola and Syracuse don't happen without his performance.

[nyjay]

These are Marcille's games prior to this year:

Maryland 2021 reg season: 11 saves, 14 GA, 44% SV%
Penn State 2021 B1G QF: 12 saves, 6 GA, 67% SV%
Rutgers 2021 B1G SF: 12 saves, 10 GA, 55% SV%
Maryland 2021 B1G CG: 3 saves, 12 GA, 20% SV%

Total: 38 saves, 42 GA, 48% sv%

That 48% was basically the exact number Kirson put up last year. If you use Lax Ref's excess saves per attempt, basically how many saves he made above what an average D1 goalie would have been expected to make, he was in the 30th percentile. Kirson last year was 42nd. Based on Marcille's past performance there wasn't much indication he'd be an upgrade over what Kirson was last year. Guess you could always argue for giving it a shot, but the evidence suggested and I'm presuming practice did as well you'd get similar results. And Kirson didn't really have any terrible games last year, just lot of not quite good enough, generally not the ones where you pull them for a goalie who you feel is about the same. But I understand the sentiment, however it feels very hindsight driven based on how Marcille is performing now. The evidence doesn't exist for this prior to 2023 though. Kirson had some great games at times himself. Also bad ones.

Marcille seemingly just got a lot better.

Small sample size. So who knows. I probably would have given Marcille a shot last year. I mean, pretty sure they weren’t going to win a championship, Kirson was a grad student, Marcille had ahown something and had two more years of eligibility. Doesn’t matter at this point, but is pretty amazing that he’s been on the bench for the last three (well 2 1/2) years given how he’s playing now.

[HopFan16]

Petro played Darby over Marcille. Maybe the kid just got better. It happens.

Peshko back up to the first line tonight in place of Bauer. Rest of the lineup is the same as the Navy game.

Delaware's Mike Robinson who killed us last year is back in their lineup after he missed the early part of the season. Can't give him time and room.

[primitiveskills]

Great start

[jhu06]

holy cow they're firing hard.