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Re: Johns Hopkins vs. Notre Dame
Posted: Thu May 18, 2023 12:20 pm
by Big Dog
"As the Wizard said "Play fast - don't hurry""
Small nit, it was "Be quick but don't hurry" (which applies to sports as well as life)
Re: Johns Hopkins vs. Notre Dame
Posted: Thu May 18, 2023 1:18 pm
by DocBarrister
Finster wrote: ↑Thu May 18, 2023 11:51 am
Sagittarius A* wrote: ↑Thu May 18, 2023 8:39 am
It's really hard to beat a first team AA goalie.
And if he's got an elite defenseman in front of him like Chris Fake, then it's doubly hard, especially if he can hold Angelus or Melendez in check.
You have to move the goalie. Passes across the crease, skip passes, things that make him move in goal are the way to beat him.
Jays really need to play team offense and wait for quality shots. They need to keep the ball moving and avoid low angle shots. The Jays need to ride hard, break some clears, and get some transition goals. Difficult, not impossible.
Hopefully, ND will be looking past them to UVA.
I agree about shot quality. That’s why Hop should limit the time of a Grimes, who every time I see him shoot, it’s an outside heater with feet firmly planted. That is truly the bread and butter save of Liam Entenmann.
Hopkins needs foot movement and smart shooters.
Blue Jays need to play to their own strengths, or at least they need to try. They can’t simply assume Entenmann will save those shots. They need to test him. If Entenmann makes those saves, then adjust and try something else.
Blue Jays have their share of offensive weapons. They need to have confidence in those weapons and at least try to play their game.
DocBarrister
Re: Johns Hopkins vs. Notre Dame
Posted: Thu May 18, 2023 3:50 pm
by Sagittarius A*
Re: Johns Hopkins vs. Notre Dame
Posted: Thu May 18, 2023 4:45 pm
by coda
they are 4.5 pt dogs, largest line of the weekend. +370 = 21% chance, but there is vig in there, so call it high teens probability according Vegas.
Re: Johns Hopkins vs. Notre Dame
Posted: Thu May 18, 2023 4:51 pm
by 10stone5
“vig in there”
Re: Johns Hopkins vs. Notre Dame
Posted: Thu May 18, 2023 5:02 pm
by coda
10stone5 wrote: ↑Thu May 18, 2023 4:51 pm
“vig in there”
there is..
+370= 21.28%
-600= 85.71
21.28%+85.71%= 107%
Vegas has to eat.
Re: Johns Hopkins vs. Notre Dame
Posted: Thu May 18, 2023 5:53 pm
by 10stone5
coda wrote: ↑Thu May 18, 2023 5:02 pm
10stone5 wrote: ↑Thu May 18, 2023 4:51 pm
“vig in there”
there is..
+370= 21.28%
-600= 85.71
21.28%+85.71%= 107%
Vegas has to eat.
As long as its not any “Good Fellas” vig.
Re: Johns Hopkins vs. Notre Dame
Posted: Thu May 18, 2023 5:56 pm
by Mr3Putt
Caused turnovers- ND 5th in NCAA D1 stats . Hopkins w high efficiency in TOP. Along w Entenmann another plus for ND.
Re: Johns Hopkins vs. Notre Dame
Posted: Sat May 20, 2023 6:10 pm
by DocBarrister
I’m calling this Johns Hopkins 14, ND 13.
DocBarrister
Re: Johns Hopkins vs. Notre Dame
Posted: Sat May 20, 2023 9:22 pm
by DocBarrister
To win this game I think the Blue Jays will need at least:
(1) 15 saves in goal,
(2) half the FOs and gbs, and
(3) 14 or fewer TOs.
DocBarrister
Re: Johns Hopkins vs. Notre Dame
Posted: Sun May 21, 2023 1:43 am
by JHU69
Think the Jays cover. Doubt they win but, can always hope.
Re: Johns Hopkins vs. Notre Dame
Posted: Sun May 21, 2023 6:14 am
by DocBarrister
Terry Foy and Ty Xanders are picking the Blue Jays to beat ND.
https://www.insidelacrosse.com/article/ ... wins/61550
Should be a hard-fought game.
DocBarrister
Re: Johns Hopkins vs. Notre Dame
Posted: Sun May 21, 2023 7:02 am
by Farfromgeneva
I’m sure I’ll be accused as a hater or some petty nonsense but I don’t see this one being much better than Mich fared vs Duke yesterday.
Re: Johns Hopkins vs. Notre Dame
Posted: Sun May 21, 2023 7:03 am
by Farfromgeneva
coda wrote: ↑Thu May 18, 2023 5:02 pm
10stone5 wrote: ↑Thu May 18, 2023 4:51 pm
“vig in there”
there is..
+370= 21.28%
-600= 85.71
21.28%+85.71%= 107%
Vegas has to eat.
Eat better than payday lenders and check cashing businesses…
Re: Johns Hopkins vs. Notre Dame
Posted: Sun May 21, 2023 8:02 am
by jhu06
Farfromgeneva wrote: ↑Sun May 21, 2023 7:02 am
I’m sure I’ll be accused as a hater or some petty nonsense but I don’t see this one being much better than Mich fared vs Duke yesterday.
IL's coverage has used the nd stat that they've given most of their opponents their worst loss of the season so far so could get ugly if it goes against Hopkins.
Re: Johns Hopkins vs. Notre Dame
Posted: Sun May 21, 2023 8:13 am
by molo
I’m sticking with my admittedly less than totally rational pick of Hopkins to pull off the upset.
Re: Johns Hopkins vs. Notre Dame
Posted: Sun May 21, 2023 9:02 am
by 51percentcorn
To some degree there's a matter of averages and probabilities and those don't favor Hopkins. Notre Dame averages 46 shots per game and puts 62% of those on goal. That's 28.5 shots on goal - So even if Marcille has a pretty good day at the office with Doc B's 15 saves - I almost never say this but he's right on point 15 would appear to be the absolute minimum required for an upset - that means Notre Dame is putting up 13-14 on the scoreboard and can Hopkins get to one more? ND has given up 15 in one game - 12 in 3 others - rational thinking says something quite unusual has to happen. If you won 75% of the face-offs and didn't turn the ball over alot - Marcille stands on his head with 19-20 saves - it's hard to see a consistent path. Hoping for it - but as a wise man once told me "Hope is a $#!++^ hedge". UVA has the key which is taking the brothers out of the game - have to come up with that formula. As I said before - tell me how many points they have and I'll be able to tell yo whether Hopkins was in the game or not.
Re: Johns Hopkins vs. Notre Dame
Posted: Sun May 21, 2023 10:08 am
by coda
51percentcorn wrote: ↑Sun May 21, 2023 9:02 am
To some degree there's a matter of averages and probabilities and those don't favor Hopkins. Notre Dame averages 46 shots per game and puts 62% of those on goal. That's 28.5 shots on goal - So even if Marcille has a pretty good day at the office with Doc B's 15 saves - I almost never say this but he's right on point 15 would appear to be the absolute minimum required for an upset - that means Notre Dame is putting up 13-14 on the scoreboard and can Hopkins get to one more? ND has given up 15 in one game - 12 in 3 others - rational thinking says something quite unusual has to happen. If you won 75% of the face-offs and didn't turn the ball over alot - Marcille stands on his head with 19-20 saves - it's hard to see a consistent path. Hoping for it - but as a wise man once told me "Hope is a $#!++^ hedge". UVA has the key which is taking the brothers out of the game - have to come up with that formula. As I said before - tell me how many points they have and I'll be able to tell yo whether Hopkins was in the game or not.
My opinion Hopkins needs to win the special teams. I characterize Goalie, Faceoff, and Clear/ride as special teams. ND struggles at the X, but they do a good job of making it a 50/50 ball and making those 60/40 balls. Then there is a the Kavanaugh factor. They seem to convert 3-5 goals from balls off the ground a game. Clean up rebounds on the 1st attempt and clear efficiently. You can’t allow those Kavanaugh effort goals, if you want to pull the upset. Also need to push the ball and get transition goals. ND always plays good 6 v 6 defense. Scoring before they can settle in a on defense will be big for Hop
Re: Johns Hopkins vs. Notre Dame
Posted: Sun May 21, 2023 10:50 am
by a fan
Pulling for your team, Doc. Best of luck. Send them back to South Bend with a L.
Re: Johns Hopkins vs. Notre Dame
Posted: Sun May 21, 2023 11:24 am
by BlueJaySince1947
molo wrote: ↑Sun May 21, 2023 8:13 am
I’m sticking with my admittedly less than totally rational pick of Hopkins to pull off the upset.
Why do you suggest it would be an upset ???