Fast money prop desk and HF traders move on this and some will say “see proof”! But either way jobs numbers this am (tomorrow (or next Friday should be first Friday of month but may get kicked w the 4th on Saturday) are more important
Employment Situation Summary
Transmission of material in this news release is embargoed until USDL-20-1310
8:30 a.m. (ET) Thursday, July 2, 2020
Technical information:
Household data:
[email protected] *
www.bls.gov/cps
Establishment data:
[email protected] *
www.bls.gov/ces
Media contact: (202) 691-5902 *
[email protected]
THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- JUNE 2020
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 4.8 million in June, and the unemployment rate
declined to 11.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. These
improvements in the labor market reflected the continued resumption of economic activity
that had been curtailed in March and April due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic
and efforts to contain it. In June, employment in leisure and hospitality rose sharply.
Notable job gains also occurred in retail trade, education and health services, other
services, manufacturing, and professional and business services.
This news release presents statistics from two monthly surveys. The household survey
measures labor force status, including unemployment, by demographic characteristics.
The establishment survey measures nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings by industry.
For more information about the concepts and statistical methodology used in these two
surveys, see the Technical Note.
Household Survey Data
The unemployment rate declined by 2.2 percentage points to 11.1 percent in June, and
the number of unemployed persons fell by 3.2 million to 17.8 million. Although
unemployment fell in May and June, the jobless rate and the number of unemployed are up
by 7.6 percentage points and 12.0 million, respectively, since February. (See table A-1.
For more information about how the household survey and its measures were affected by
the coronavirus pandemic, see the box note at the end of the news release.)
Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates declined in June for adult men
(10.2 percent), adult women (11.2 percent), teenagers (23.2 percent), Whites (10.1
percent), Blacks (15.4 percent), and Hispanics (14.5 percent). The jobless rate for
Asians (13.8 percent) changed little over the month. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)
The number of unemployed persons who were on temporary layoff decreased by 4.8 million
in June to 10.6 million, following a decline of 2.7 million in May. The number of
permanent job losers continued to rise, increasing by 588,000 to 2.9 million in June.
The number of unemployed reentrants to the labor force rose by 711,000 to 2.4 million.
(Reentrants are persons who previously worked but were not in the labor force prior to
beginning their job search.) (See table A-11.)
The number of unemployed persons who were jobless less than 5 weeks declined by 1.0
million to 2.8 million in June. Unemployed persons who were jobless 5 to 14 weeks
numbered 11.5 million, down by 3.3 million over the month, and accounted for 65.2
percent of the unemployed. By contrast, the number of persons jobless 15 to 26 weeks
and the long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) saw over-the-month
increases (+825,000 to 1.9 million and +227,000 to 1.4 million, respectively). (See
table A-12.)
The labor force participation rate increased by 0.7 percentage point in June to 61.5
percent, but is 1.9 percentage points below its February level. Total employment, as
measured by the household survey, rose by 4.9 million to 142.2 million in June. The
employment-population ratio, at 54.6 percent, rose by 1.8 percentage points over the
month but is 6.5 percentage points lower than in February. (See table A-1.)
In June, the number of persons who usually work full time increased by 2.4 million to
118.9 million, and the number who usually work part time also rose by 2.4 million to
23.2 million. (See table A-9.)
The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons declined by 1.6 million
to 9.1 million in June but is still more than double its February level. These
individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time
because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs. This
group includes persons who usually work full time and persons who usually work part
time. (See table A-8.)
The number of persons not in the labor force who currently want a job, at 8.2 million,
declined by 767,000 in June but remained 3.2 million higher than in February. These
individuals were not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking for
work during the last 4 weeks or were unavailable to take a job. (See table A-1.)
Persons marginally attached to the labor force--a subset of persons not in the labor
force who currently want a job--numbered 2.5 million in June, little different from the
prior month. These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available
for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months but had not looked
for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. Discouraged workers, a subset of the
marginally attached who believed that no jobs were available for them, numbered 681,000
in June, essentially unchanged from the previous month. (See Summary table A.)
Establishment Survey Data
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 4.8 million in June, following an increase
of 2.7 million in May. These gains reflect a partial resumption of economic activity
that had been curtailed due to the coronavirus pandemic in April and March, when
employment fell by a total of 22.2 million in the 2 months combined. In June, nonfarm
employment was 14.7 million, or 9.6 percent, lower than its February level. Employment
in leisure and hospitality rose sharply in June. Notable job gains also occurred in
retail trade, education and health services, other services, manufacturing, and
professional and business services. Employment continued to decline in mining. (See
table B-1. For more information about how the establishment survey and its measures
were affected by the coronavirus pandemic, see the box note at the end of the news
release.)
In June, employment in leisure and hospitality increased by 2.1 million, accounting
for about two-fifths of the gain in total nonfarm employment. Over the month,
employment in food services and drinking places rose by 1.5 million, following a gain
of the same magnitude in May. Despite these gains, employment in food services and
drinking places is down by 3.1 million since February. Employment also rose in June
in amusements, gambling, and recreation (+353,000) and in the accommodation industry
(+239,000).
In June, employment in retail trade rose by 740,000, after a gain of 372,000 in May
and losses totaling 2.4 million in March and April combined. On net, employment in the
industry is 1.3 million lower than in February. In June, notable job gains occurred in
clothing and clothing accessories stores (+202,000), general merchandise stores
(+108,000), furniture and home furnishings stores (+84,000), and motor vehicle and
parts dealers (+84,000).
Employment increased by 568,000 in education and health services in June but is 1.8
million below February's level. Health care employment increased by 358,000 over the
month, with gains in offices of dentists (+190,000), offices of physicians (+80,000),
and offices of other health practitioners (+48,000). Elsewhere in health care, job
losses continued in nursing care facilities (-18,000). Employment increased in the
social assistance industry (+117,000), reflecting gains in child day care services
(+80,000) and in individual and family services (+28,000). Employment in private
education rose by 93,000 over the month.
Employment increased in the other services industry in June (+357,000), with about
three-fourths of the increase occurring in personal and laundry services (+264,000).
Since February, employment in the other services industry is down by 752,000.
In June, manufacturing employment rose by 356,000 but is down by 757,000 since
February. June employment increases were concentrated in the durable goods component,
with motor vehicles and parts (+196,000) accounting for over half of the job gain in
manufacturing. Employment also increased over the month in miscellaneous durable
goods manufacturing (+26,000) and machinery (+18,000). Within the nondurable goods
component, the largest job gain occurred in plastics and rubber products (+22,000).
Professional and business services added 306,000 jobs in June, but employment is 1.8
million below its February level. In June, employment rose in temporary help services
(+149,000), services to buildings and dwellings (+53,000), and accounting and
bookkeeping services (+18,000). By contrast, employment declined in computer systems
design and related services (-20,000).
Construction employment increased by 158,000 in June, following a gain of 453,000 in
May. These gains accounted for more than half of the decline in March and April
(-1.1 million combined). Over-the-month gains occurred in specialty trade contractors
(+135,000), with growth about equally split between the residential and nonresidential
components. Job gains also occurred in construction of buildings (+32,000).
Transportation and warehousing added 99,000 jobs in June, following declines in the
prior 2 months (-588,000 in April and May combined). In June, employment rose in
warehousing and storage (+61,000), couriers and messengers (+21,000), truck
transportation (+8,000), and support activities for transportation (+7,000).
Wholesale trade employment rose by 68,000 in June but is down by 317,000 since
February. In June, job gains occurred in the durable goods (+39,000) and nondurable
goods (+27,000) components.
Financial activities added 32,000 jobs in June, with over half of the gain in real
estate (+18,000). Since February, employment in financial activities is down by
237,000.
Government employment changed little in June (+33,000), as job gains in local
government education (+70,000) were partially offset by job losses in state government
(-25,000). Government employment is 1.5 million below its February level.
Mining continued to lose jobs in June (-10,000), with most of the decline occurring in
support activities for mining (-7,000). Mining employment is down by 123,000 since a
recent peak in January 2019, although nearly three-fourths of the decline has occurred
since February 2020.
In June, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls fell by
35 cents to $29.37. Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and
nonsupervisory employees decreased by 23 cents to $24.74 in June. The decreases in
average hourly earnings largely reflect job gains among lower-paid workers; these
changes put downward pressure on the average hourly earnings estimates. (See tables
B-3 and B-8.)
The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls decreased by 0.2
hour to 34.5 hours in June. In manufacturing, the workweek rose by 0.5 hour to 39.2
hours, and overtime was unchanged at 2.4 hours. The average workweek for production
and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls fell by 0.2 hour to 33.9
hours. The recent employment changes, especially in industries with shorter workweeks,
complicate monthly comparisons of the average weekly hours estimates. (See tables B-2
and B-7.)
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for April was revised down by 100,000,
from -20.7 million to -20.8 million, and the change for May was revised up by 190,000,
from +2.5 million to +2.7 million. With these revisions, employment in April and May
combined was 90,000 higher than previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from
additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last
published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.)
_____________
The Employment Situation for July is scheduled to be released on Friday, August 7,
2020, at 8:30 a.m. (ET).
_______________________________________________________________________________________
| |
| |
| Coronavirus (COVID-19) Impact on June 2020 Establishment and Household Survey Data |
| |
| |
| Data collection for both surveys was affected by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. |
| In the establishment survey, approximately one-fifth of the data is assigned to four |
| regional data collection centers. Although these centers were closed, interviewers at |
| these centers worked remotely to collect data by telephone. Additionally, BLS |
| encouraged businesses to report electronically. The collection rate for the |
| establishment survey in June was 63 percent, lower than collection rates prior to the |
| pandemic. The household survey is generally collected through in-person and telephone |
| interviews, but personal interviews were not conducted for the safety of interviewers |
| and respondents. The household survey response rate, at 65 percent, was about 18 |
| percentage points lower than in months prior to the pandemic. |
| |
| In the establishment survey, workers who are paid by their employer for all or any |
| part of the pay period including the 12th of the month are counted as employed, even |
| if they were not actually at their jobs. Workers who are temporarily or permanently |
| absent from their jobs and are not being paid are not counted as employed, even if |
| they are continuing to receive benefits. |
| |
| In the household survey, individuals are classified as employed, unemployed, or not |
| in the labor force based on their answers to a series of questions about their |
| activities during the survey reference week (June 7th through June 13th). Workers who |
| indicate they were not working during the entire survey reference week and expect to |
| be recalled to their jobs should be classified as unemployed on temporary layoff. In |
| June, a large number of persons were classified as unemployed on temporary layoff. |
| |
| As was the case in March, April, and May, household survey interviewers were |
| instructed to classify employed persons absent from work due to temporary, |
| coronavirus-related business closures as unemployed on temporary layoff. BLS and |
| Census Bureau analyses of the underlying data suggest that this group still included |
| some workers affected by the pandemic who should have been classified as unemployed |
| on temporary layoff. |
| |
| The degree of misclassification declined considerably in June. BLS and Census Bureau |
| staff have been reviewing survey responses that might have been misclassified. The |
| misclassification hinges on a question about the main reason people were absent from |
| their jobs. If people who were absent due to temporary, pandemic-related closures |
| were recorded as absent due to "other reasons," they could have been misclassified. |
| When interviewers record a response of "other reason," they also add a few words |
| describing that other reason. The review of these brief descriptions found that the |
| share of responses that may have been misclassified was much smaller in June than in |
| prior months. BLS and the Census Bureau are continuing to investigate the |
| misclassification and are taking additional steps to address the issue. |
| |
| If the workers who were recorded as employed but absent from work due to "other |
| reasons" (over and above the number absent for other reasons in a typical June) had |
| been classified as unemployed on temporary layoff, the overall unemployment rate |
| would have been about 1 percentage point higher than reported (on a not seasonally |
| adjusted basis). However, this represents the upper bound of our estimate of |
| misclassification and probably overstates the size of the misclassification error. |
| |
| According to usual practice, the data from the household survey are accepted as |
| recorded. To maintain data integrity, no ad hoc actions are taken to reclassify |
| survey responses. |
| |
| More information is available at |
|
www.bls.gov/cps/employment-situation-co ... e-2020.pdf. |
| |
|_______________________________________________________________________________________|
Good luck with that.