The Nation's Financial Condition

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MDlaxfan76
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by MDlaxfan76 »

cradleandshoot wrote: Sun Jun 14, 2020 9:22 am
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Fri Jun 12, 2020 1:07 pm
CU88 wrote: Fri Jun 12, 2020 12:07 pm
Nigel wrote: Fri Jun 12, 2020 10:48 am
CU88 wrote: Fri Jun 12, 2020 8:39 am BREAKING NEWS: On Thursday, June 11th, 502,209 people came through @TSA security checkpoints nationwide. It marked the first time the traveler count surpassed a half million since March 21st. One year ago, 2,675,686 travelers were screened at checkpoints across the country.

My son-in-law took a early morning flight from DCA to MSP yesterday and said that the flight was 100% full!!!!!!!!!!
Is that good news or bad news to you on both items?

Glass half full - travelers are returning, first time TSA # over half a million in 2+ mos.
Glass half empty - travelers staying away, only 20% thru TSA vs one year ago.

Glass half full - early morning flight booked full, airlines recovering.
Glass half empty - son-in-law's flight was full and he was what? Upset he had a seat neighbor? Upset he might be more likely to get CV19? What?

Are you blaming Trump for this or not? Everything else is his fault in your world.
Everything is political in your world view.
I understood it.

Planes are inherently not safe at this point for anyone who is in a high risk group or who is going to come in contact with those in a high risk group, and full planes are begging for accelerated transmission rates. Bad for all the rest of us.

My family and I want to get on a plane in late July. I've been hoping that airlines will institute procedures that greatly reduce transmission risk. I'm willing to pay double or triple to have that be the case.

But will airlines do so?
Sounds like no, they're just going to wing it.

None of that is about politics.
If your worried about planes you should talk with my oldest son. He is a Federal Air Marshall. You know what they deal with everyday, especially on overseas flights? They deal with the understanding that bad people are trying non stop to blow these planes up in mid air. You would be most disconcerted if you knew just how close they are getting to be able to accomplish that. Covid is something to be concerned about. Being blown up in a plane at 35,000 feet is more of a threat than you realize.
Coffee time, cradle.
We were talking about COVID risk, packed plane.

Not sure how the threat of a bomb is related to COVID, but rest assured, I'm glad that we have Air Marshalls and all sorts of technologies and other measures to reduce that risk. No denial here that such risk remains real. Yet thankfully, it's quite rare to actually happen as a result of those preventive efforts. Much more likely at this point to have a ground to air attack, and way, way, way more likely to have an equipment failure or pilot error disaster.

None of those has nearly the much greater likelihood of contracting COVID on a packed plane during the COVID pandemic. Now, if you are a young person without other risk factors and know that you will not be near those who are more vulnerable, it may well be a risk you decide is 'safe' enough for you.

But for all of us who have substantial negative risks or who will definitely be with others who are vulnerable?
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cradleandshoot
Posts: 15400
Joined: Fri Oct 05, 2018 4:42 pm

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by cradleandshoot »

MDlaxfan76 wrote: Sun Jun 14, 2020 9:36 am
cradleandshoot wrote: Sun Jun 14, 2020 9:22 am
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Fri Jun 12, 2020 1:07 pm
CU88 wrote: Fri Jun 12, 2020 12:07 pm
Nigel wrote: Fri Jun 12, 2020 10:48 am
CU88 wrote: Fri Jun 12, 2020 8:39 am BREAKING NEWS: On Thursday, June 11th, 502,209 people came through @TSA security checkpoints nationwide. It marked the first time the traveler count surpassed a half million since March 21st. One year ago, 2,675,686 travelers were screened at checkpoints across the country.

My son-in-law took a early morning flight from DCA to MSP yesterday and said that the flight was 100% full!!!!!!!!!!
Is that good news or bad news to you on both items?

Glass half full - travelers are returning, first time TSA # over half a million in 2+ mos.
Glass half empty - travelers staying away, only 20% thru TSA vs one year ago.

Glass half full - early morning flight booked full, airlines recovering.
Glass half empty - son-in-law's flight was full and he was what? Upset he had a seat neighbor? Upset he might be more likely to get CV19? What?

Are you blaming Trump for this or not? Everything else is his fault in your world.
Everything is political in your world view.
I understood it.

Planes are inherently not safe at this point for anyone who is in a high risk group or who is going to come in contact with those in a high risk group, and full planes are begging for accelerated transmission rates. Bad for all the rest of us.

My family and I want to get on a plane in late July. I've been hoping that airlines will institute procedures that greatly reduce transmission risk. I'm willing to pay double or triple to have that be the case.

But will airlines do so?
Sounds like no, they're just going to wing it.

None of that is about politics.
If your worried about planes you should talk with my oldest son. He is a Federal Air Marshall. You know what they deal with everyday, especially on overseas flights? They deal with the understanding that bad people are trying non stop to blow these planes up in mid air. You would be most disconcerted if you knew just how close they are getting to be able to accomplish that. Covid is something to be concerned about. Being blown up in a plane at 35,000 feet is more of a threat than you realize.
Coffee time, cradle.
We were talking about COVID risk, packed plane.

Not sure how the threat of a bomb is related to COVID, but rest assured, I'm glad that we have Air Marshalls and all sorts of technologies and other measures to reduce that risk. No denial here that such risk remains real. Yet thankfully, it's quite rare to actually happen as a result of those preventive efforts. Much more likely at this point to have a ground to air attack, and way, way, way more likely to have an equipment failure or pilot error disaster.

None of those has nearly the much greater likelihood of contracting COVID on a packed plane during the COVID pandemic. Now, if you are a young person without other risk factors and know that you will not be near those who are more vulnerable, it may well be a risk you decide is 'safe' enough for you.

But for all of us who have substantial negative risks or who will definitely be with others who are vulnerable?
I know exactly what you were talking about. Your piddling in your pants worried about getting covid from a packed airplane. You should be piddling in your pants about that plane blowing up at 35,000 feet. Hey if you are the unlucky guy to be on that plane, you can rest easy, you wont have to worry about covid anymore. FYI, the threat is more real than you can possibly understand. My son will never tell what he knows. What he knows should scare the effing hell out of you. Carry on my friend, you ain't got nuthin to worry about. Complacency is the terrorists best friend. Our people have to be right every damn day. The bad guys, they just need to be right one day.
We don't make mistakes, we have happy accidents.
Bob Ross:
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MDlaxfan76
Posts: 27093
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by MDlaxfan76 »

cradleandshoot wrote: Sun Jun 14, 2020 9:49 am
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Sun Jun 14, 2020 9:36 am
cradleandshoot wrote: Sun Jun 14, 2020 9:22 am
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Fri Jun 12, 2020 1:07 pm
CU88 wrote: Fri Jun 12, 2020 12:07 pm
Nigel wrote: Fri Jun 12, 2020 10:48 am
CU88 wrote: Fri Jun 12, 2020 8:39 am BREAKING NEWS: On Thursday, June 11th, 502,209 people came through @TSA security checkpoints nationwide. It marked the first time the traveler count surpassed a half million since March 21st. One year ago, 2,675,686 travelers were screened at checkpoints across the country.

My son-in-law took a early morning flight from DCA to MSP yesterday and said that the flight was 100% full!!!!!!!!!!
Is that good news or bad news to you on both items?

Glass half full - travelers are returning, first time TSA # over half a million in 2+ mos.
Glass half empty - travelers staying away, only 20% thru TSA vs one year ago.

Glass half full - early morning flight booked full, airlines recovering.
Glass half empty - son-in-law's flight was full and he was what? Upset he had a seat neighbor? Upset he might be more likely to get CV19? What?

Are you blaming Trump for this or not? Everything else is his fault in your world.
Everything is political in your world view.
I understood it.

Planes are inherently not safe at this point for anyone who is in a high risk group or who is going to come in contact with those in a high risk group, and full planes are begging for accelerated transmission rates. Bad for all the rest of us.

My family and I want to get on a plane in late July. I've been hoping that airlines will institute procedures that greatly reduce transmission risk. I'm willing to pay double or triple to have that be the case.

But will airlines do so?
Sounds like no, they're just going to wing it.

None of that is about politics.
If your worried about planes you should talk with my oldest son. He is a Federal Air Marshall. You know what they deal with everyday, especially on overseas flights? They deal with the understanding that bad people are trying non stop to blow these planes up in mid air. You would be most disconcerted if you knew just how close they are getting to be able to accomplish that. Covid is something to be concerned about. Being blown up in a plane at 35,000 feet is more of a threat than you realize.
Coffee time, cradle.
We were talking about COVID risk, packed plane.

Not sure how the threat of a bomb is related to COVID, but rest assured, I'm glad that we have Air Marshalls and all sorts of technologies and other measures to reduce that risk. No denial here that such risk remains real. Yet thankfully, it's quite rare to actually happen as a result of those preventive efforts. Much more likely at this point to have a ground to air attack, and way, way, way more likely to have an equipment failure or pilot error disaster.

None of those has nearly the much greater likelihood of contracting COVID on a packed plane during the COVID pandemic. Now, if you are a young person without other risk factors and know that you will not be near those who are more vulnerable, it may well be a risk you decide is 'safe' enough for you.

But for all of us who have substantial negative risks or who will definitely be with others who are vulnerable?
I know exactly what you were talking about. Your piddling in your pants worried about getting covid from a packed airplane. You should be piddling in your pants about that plane blowing up at 35,000 feet. Hey if you are the unlucky guy to be on that plane, you can rest easy, you wont have to worry about covid anymore. FYI, the threat is more real than you can possibly understand. My son will never tell what he knows. What he knows should scare the effing hell out of you. Carry on my friend, you ain't got nuthin to worry about. Complacency is the terrorists best friend. Our people have to be right every damn day. The bad guys, they just need to be right one day.
Again, time for another cup of coffee, my friend.
No one is debating you about the importance of your son's gig.

Most of those in my family group that would be traveling in late July are over 60, one is Type II diabetic, one is turning 90. And on return, by plane, the 90 year old would be returning to a senior living center, I and my wife and my brother in law (Type II) would be back in my home with my 84 year old mom.

so, yeah, a packed plane during the pandemic represents a very real, serious risk.
I'd be willing to pay double or triple if the airlines took measures to dramatically reduce that risk.
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cradleandshoot
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by cradleandshoot »

MDlaxfan76 wrote: Sun Jun 14, 2020 9:58 am
cradleandshoot wrote: Sun Jun 14, 2020 9:49 am
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Sun Jun 14, 2020 9:36 am
cradleandshoot wrote: Sun Jun 14, 2020 9:22 am
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Fri Jun 12, 2020 1:07 pm
CU88 wrote: Fri Jun 12, 2020 12:07 pm
Nigel wrote: Fri Jun 12, 2020 10:48 am
CU88 wrote: Fri Jun 12, 2020 8:39 am BREAKING NEWS: On Thursday, June 11th, 502,209 people came through @TSA security checkpoints nationwide. It marked the first time the traveler count surpassed a half million since March 21st. One year ago, 2,675,686 travelers were screened at checkpoints across the country.

My son-in-law took a early morning flight from DCA to MSP yesterday and said that the flight was 100% full!!!!!!!!!!
Is that good news or bad news to you on both items?

Glass half full - travelers are returning, first time TSA # over half a million in 2+ mos.
Glass half empty - travelers staying away, only 20% thru TSA vs one year ago.

Glass half full - early morning flight booked full, airlines recovering.
Glass half empty - son-in-law's flight was full and he was what? Upset he had a seat neighbor? Upset he might be more likely to get CV19? What?

Are you blaming Trump for this or not? Everything else is his fault in your world.
Everything is political in your world view.
I understood it.

Planes are inherently not safe at this point for anyone who is in a high risk group or who is going to come in contact with those in a high risk group, and full planes are begging for accelerated transmission rates. Bad for all the rest of us.

My family and I want to get on a plane in late July. I've been hoping that airlines will institute procedures that greatly reduce transmission risk. I'm willing to pay double or triple to have that be the case.

But will airlines do so?
Sounds like no, they're just going to wing it.

None of that is about politics.
If your worried about planes you should talk with my oldest son. He is a Federal Air Marshall. You know what they deal with everyday, especially on overseas flights? They deal with the understanding that bad people are trying non stop to blow these planes up in mid air. You would be most disconcerted if you knew just how close they are getting to be able to accomplish that. Covid is something to be concerned about. Being blown up in a plane at 35,000 feet is more of a threat than you realize.
Coffee time, cradle.
We were talking about COVID risk, packed plane.

Not sure how the threat of a bomb is related to COVID, but rest assured, I'm glad that we have Air Marshalls and all sorts of technologies and other measures to reduce that risk. No denial here that such risk remains real. Yet thankfully, it's quite rare to actually happen as a result of those preventive efforts. Much more likely at this point to have a ground to air attack, and way, way, way more likely to have an equipment failure or pilot error disaster.

None of those has nearly the much greater likelihood of contracting COVID on a packed plane during the COVID pandemic. Now, if you are a young person without other risk factors and know that you will not be near those who are more vulnerable, it may well be a risk you decide is 'safe' enough for you.

But for all of us who have substantial negative risks or who will definitely be with others who are vulnerable?
I know exactly what you were talking about. Your piddling in your pants worried about getting covid from a packed airplane. You should be piddling in your pants about that plane blowing up at 35,000 feet. Hey if you are the unlucky guy to be on that plane, you can rest easy, you wont have to worry about covid anymore. FYI, the threat is more real than you can possibly understand. My son will never tell what he knows. What he knows should scare the effing hell out of you. Carry on my friend, you ain't got nuthin to worry about. Complacency is the terrorists best friend. Our people have to be right every damn day. The bad guys, they just need to be right one day.
Again, time for another cup of coffee, my friend.
No one is debating you about the importance of your son's gig.

Most of those in my family group that would be traveling in late July are over 60, one is Type II diabetic, one is turning 90. And on return, by plane, the 90 year old would be returning to a senior living center, I and my wife and my brother in law (Type II) would be back in my home with my 84 year old mom.

so, yeah, a packed plane during the pandemic represents a very real, serious risk.
I'd be willing to pay double or triple if the airlines took measures to dramatically reduce that risk.
I am not touting the importance of what my son does. I am just telling you that the threat exists. If you are bringing your brother in law on this flight he should be worried. There is a greater chance of you throwing him out of the plane before he ever gets covid.
We don't make mistakes, we have happy accidents.
Bob Ross:
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MDlaxfan76
Posts: 27093
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by MDlaxfan76 »

cradleandshoot wrote: Sun Jun 14, 2020 10:10 am
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Sun Jun 14, 2020 9:58 am
cradleandshoot wrote: Sun Jun 14, 2020 9:49 am
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Sun Jun 14, 2020 9:36 am
cradleandshoot wrote: Sun Jun 14, 2020 9:22 am
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Fri Jun 12, 2020 1:07 pm
CU88 wrote: Fri Jun 12, 2020 12:07 pm
Nigel wrote: Fri Jun 12, 2020 10:48 am
CU88 wrote: Fri Jun 12, 2020 8:39 am BREAKING NEWS: On Thursday, June 11th, 502,209 people came through @TSA security checkpoints nationwide. It marked the first time the traveler count surpassed a half million since March 21st. One year ago, 2,675,686 travelers were screened at checkpoints across the country.

My son-in-law took a early morning flight from DCA to MSP yesterday and said that the flight was 100% full!!!!!!!!!!
Is that good news or bad news to you on both items?

Glass half full - travelers are returning, first time TSA # over half a million in 2+ mos.
Glass half empty - travelers staying away, only 20% thru TSA vs one year ago.

Glass half full - early morning flight booked full, airlines recovering.
Glass half empty - son-in-law's flight was full and he was what? Upset he had a seat neighbor? Upset he might be more likely to get CV19? What?

Are you blaming Trump for this or not? Everything else is his fault in your world.
Everything is political in your world view.
I understood it.

Planes are inherently not safe at this point for anyone who is in a high risk group or who is going to come in contact with those in a high risk group, and full planes are begging for accelerated transmission rates. Bad for all the rest of us.

My family and I want to get on a plane in late July. I've been hoping that airlines will institute procedures that greatly reduce transmission risk. I'm willing to pay double or triple to have that be the case.

But will airlines do so?
Sounds like no, they're just going to wing it.

None of that is about politics.
If your worried about planes you should talk with my oldest son. He is a Federal Air Marshall. You know what they deal with everyday, especially on overseas flights? They deal with the understanding that bad people are trying non stop to blow these planes up in mid air. You would be most disconcerted if you knew just how close they are getting to be able to accomplish that. Covid is something to be concerned about. Being blown up in a plane at 35,000 feet is more of a threat than you realize.
Coffee time, cradle.
We were talking about COVID risk, packed plane.

Not sure how the threat of a bomb is related to COVID, but rest assured, I'm glad that we have Air Marshalls and all sorts of technologies and other measures to reduce that risk. No denial here that such risk remains real. Yet thankfully, it's quite rare to actually happen as a result of those preventive efforts. Much more likely at this point to have a ground to air attack, and way, way, way more likely to have an equipment failure or pilot error disaster.

None of those has nearly the much greater likelihood of contracting COVID on a packed plane during the COVID pandemic. Now, if you are a young person without other risk factors and know that you will not be near those who are more vulnerable, it may well be a risk you decide is 'safe' enough for you.

But for all of us who have substantial negative risks or who will definitely be with others who are vulnerable?
I know exactly what you were talking about. Your piddling in your pants worried about getting covid from a packed airplane. You should be piddling in your pants about that plane blowing up at 35,000 feet. Hey if you are the unlucky guy to be on that plane, you can rest easy, you wont have to worry about covid anymore. FYI, the threat is more real than you can possibly understand. My son will never tell what he knows. What he knows should scare the effing hell out of you. Carry on my friend, you ain't got nuthin to worry about. Complacency is the terrorists best friend. Our people have to be right every damn day. The bad guys, they just need to be right one day.
Again, time for another cup of coffee, my friend.
No one is debating you about the importance of your son's gig.

Most of those in my family group that would be traveling in late July are over 60, one is Type II diabetic, one is turning 90. And on return, by plane, the 90 year old would be returning to a senior living center, I and my wife and my brother in law (Type II) would be back in my home with my 84 year old mom.

so, yeah, a packed plane during the pandemic represents a very real, serious risk.
I'd be willing to pay double or triple if the airlines took measures to dramatically reduce that risk.
I am not touting the importance of what my son does. I am just telling you that the threat exists. If you are bringing your brother in law on this flight he should be worried. There is a greater chance of you throwing him out of the plane before he ever gets covid.
:lol: Tempting.

But unfortunately, you are absolutely out of your gourd to think his risk of contracting COVID on a packed plane is low. And with his diabetes and general poor health despite our best efforts (he's lost 100 lbs since he moved in with us), his outcomes are pretty likely to be ugly if he did contract it. The inflammation response related to COVID is much, much worse with those already compromised with such chronically.

His 90 year old mom, even worse, my 84 year old mom as well.

My point is that my concern is for those I love. My wife and I are by far the most healthy of our 60+ year old clan, but I'm nevertheless concerned about her getting it and having a bad reaction. I'm even concerned about my 26 year old son who is in excellent shape.

My point is that airlines could dramatically reduce risk, but it appears that they are not doing so. That's disappointing, and concerning.
Farfromgeneva
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Farfromgeneva »

I don’t agree with this position but could be a very interesting test case for our economy.

https://www.fastcompany.com/90515205/it ... LqCTvkYvH0
Now I love those cowboys, I love their gold
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
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CU77
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by CU77 »

MDlaxfan76 wrote: Sun Jun 14, 2020 10:59 am My family and I want to get on a plane in late July. I've been hoping that airlines will institute procedures that greatly reduce transmission risk.
I don't see that as being possible.

Back in the days when smoking was allowed on planes, it was a nightmare for my wife, who has asthma and other lung issues. I would always book seats in coach EXACTLY between the coach smoking section and the first/business class smoking section. Even so, within a minute or so of the "no smoking" light going off, we would start to smell smoke. Several times after a five-hour plane trip, she ended up with bronchitis.

Substitute covid droplets for smoke, and we have a real problem.
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CU77
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by CU77 »

cradleandshoot wrote: Sun Jun 14, 2020 9:49 am FYI, the threat is more real than you can possibly understand.
Oh please. Scare words like "more real than you can possibly understand" are no help in quantifying the threat.

What I want to know is, what is the estimated probability of getting blown up on any particular plane trip?

Let's do some math. Pre-covid, there were about 100,000 flights per day worldwide. So even if the terrorists were blowing up one randomly-selected plane every single day, the odds that it would be my plane that gets hit are 100,000 to 1 against.

And, in case you hadn't noticed, the terrorists are not blowing up one plane per day.
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holmes435
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by holmes435 »

COVID kills the same number of Americans as 9/11 every 4 days right now. ~2 days a month ago. Just for comparison.
Farfromgeneva
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Farfromgeneva »

So why didn’t we put up some housing or something more productive in place of the towers on the tiny island of Manhattan that is home to millions of folks but rather built a park?

But good random comparison for context.
Now I love those cowboys, I love their gold
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
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cradleandshoot
Posts: 15400
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by cradleandshoot »

CU77 wrote: Sun Jun 14, 2020 10:34 pm
cradleandshoot wrote: Sun Jun 14, 2020 9:49 am FYI, the threat is more real than you can possibly understand.
Oh please. Scare words like "more real than you can possibly understand" are no help in quantifying the threat.

What I want to know is, what is the estimated probability of getting blown up on any particular plane trip?

Let's do some math. Pre-covid, there were about 100,000 flights per day worldwide. So even if the terrorists were blowing up one randomly-selected plane every single day, the odds that it would be my plane that gets hit are 100,000 to 1 against.

And, in case you hadn't noticed, the terrorists are not blowing up one plane per day.
That is why my son and people that work with him do what they do. You would be surprised at the freedom FAMs are granted in the use of lethal force. It is not about statistics or probability. The fact is there are bad people working on ever more sophisticated technology that will blow up a plane in mid air. They have not succeeded yet but don't kid yourself into thinking they have given up. I am not downplaying the risk of covid on a crowded plane. If you want to travel across country quickly, you don't have alot of options. If you have business overseas, flying is your only practical option. There is no doubt that sooner or later the bad people will have what they need. It may not be one plane, it might be 10 planes. You think covid is bad? What do you think happens when folks are too scared to even get on a plane. My son does overseas flights because he has to. He is involved in a high tech game of Russian roulette. He has a wife and 2 kids to think about. He knows and understands the threat in the real world. They get intell on these people and what they are up to everyday. The funny thing is that when this happens, and it will, everybody will be pointing fingers at the government saying"you knew about this threat and did nothing about it." :roll:
We don't make mistakes, we have happy accidents.
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CU88
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by CU88 »

cradleandshoot wrote: Mon Jun 15, 2020 6:48 am
CU77 wrote: Sun Jun 14, 2020 10:34 pm
cradleandshoot wrote: Sun Jun 14, 2020 9:49 am FYI, the threat is more real than you can possibly understand.
Oh please. Scare words like "more real than you can possibly understand" are no help in quantifying the threat.

What I want to know is, what is the estimated probability of getting blown up on any particular plane trip?

Let's do some math. Pre-covid, there were about 100,000 flights per day worldwide. So even if the terrorists were blowing up one randomly-selected plane every single day, the odds that it would be my plane that gets hit are 100,000 to 1 against.

And, in case you hadn't noticed, the terrorists are not blowing up one plane per day.
That is why my son and people that work with him do what they do. You would be surprised at the freedom FAMs are granted in the use of lethal force. It is not about statistics or probability. The fact is there are bad people working on ever more sophisticated technology that will blow up a plane in mid air. They have not succeeded yet but don't kid yourself into thinking they have given up. I am not downplaying the risk of covid on a crowded plane. If you want to travel across country quickly, you don't have alot of options. If you have business overseas, flying is your only practical option. There is no doubt that sooner or later the bad people will have what they need. It may not be one plane, it might be 10 planes. You think covid is bad? What do you think happens when folks are too scared to even get on a plane. My son does overseas flights because he has to. He is involved in a high tech game of Russian roulette. He has a wife and 2 kids to think about. He knows and understands the threat in the real world. They get intell on these people and what they are up to everyday. The funny thing is that when this happens, and it will, everybody will be pointing fingers at the government saying"you knew about this threat and did nothing about it." :roll:
I wish that the Fed's put the same funds & energy to protect us from COVID deaths as they do from the air terror threats. 117,000 US citizens dead in last 3 months; and counting...
by cradleandshoot » Fri Aug 13, 2021 8:57 am
Mr moderator, deactivate my account.
You have heck this forum up to making it nothing more than a joke. I hope you are happy.
This is cradle and shoot signing out.
:roll: :roll: :roll:
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CU77
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by CU77 »

cradleandshoot wrote: Mon Jun 15, 2020 6:48 am It is not about statistics or probability.
Actually it is. If you are going to avoid every risk, no matter how low the probability, you will never leave your couch. Each of us is assessing all sorts of risks every day, and deciding whether or not the reward is worth the risk. I might get hit by a drunk driver while driving to the grocery store, but I drive there anyway.
cradleandshoot wrote: Mon Jun 15, 2020 6:48 amThe fact is there are bad people working on ever more sophisticated technology that will blow up a plane in mid air. They have not succeeded yet but don't kid yourself into thinking they have given up.
I'm sure this is true.
cradleandshoot wrote: Mon Jun 15, 2020 6:48 amThere is no doubt that sooner or later the bad people will have what they need. It may not be one plane, it might be 10 planes.
Which would be 1 in 10,000 of planes in the air that day. And would kill about 3% of the number of Americans already dead from covid.

Bad, but hardly apocalyptic.
cradleandshoot wrote: Mon Jun 15, 2020 6:48 amYou think covid is bad? What do you think happens when folks are too scared to even get on a plane.
LOL! Have you not noticed that air travel has already dropped to something like 20% of what it was pre-covid? People are too scared to even get on a plane right now!
cradleandshoot wrote: Mon Jun 15, 2020 6:48 amMy son does overseas flights because he has to. He is involved in a high tech game of Russian roulette. He has a wife and 2 kids to think about. He knows and understands the threat in the real world. They get intell on these people and what they are up to everyday. The funny thing is that when this happens, and it will, everybody will be pointing fingers at the government saying"you knew about this threat and did nothing about it." :roll:
Maybe. Depends on how it goes down.

Back in the days when movie theaters used actual film in their projectors, one of the new shows like 60 Minutes did a piece on how easy it was to get a large film canister shipped as cargo on pretty much any passenger flight. The canisters were marked "Film: do not open, do not Xray". Pack one with explosives and a timer instead of film, and boom! I'd be very interested to know if and how this risk was mitigated.
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RedFromMI
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by RedFromMI »

Already developed film is not changed by x-ray exposure at the level required to probe. And a metal film canister would be opened anyway to see inside if it blocked x-rays.
Farfromgeneva
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Farfromgeneva »

Driven early on in the cycle by energy complex, and I happen to be in discussions with a bank between $25-$75Bn in assets about managing their special assets NOL which is growing, based in the Mid South, but we’re already up to a high yield default rate of around 5% from more or less historical lows. This is for the speculative, or below investment grade universe. Financial crisis peak was around 11%.

https://www.abladvisor.com/news/18718/u ... nkruptcies
Now I love those cowboys, I love their gold
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
Farfromgeneva
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Farfromgeneva »

Hilton cutting 22% of workforce

https://www.wsj.com/articles/hilton-cut ... 60?mod=mhp

BP took a Goodwill charge/writedown yesterday of $17.5Bn, the O&G industry is on the ropes and that’s 7.5% of US Employment.

And, Powell notes yesterday that the risk of longer term damage is great despite reopening. Everyone wants to respond to daily market moves then apply a narrative fallacy but miss the intermediate term perspective. This stuff is going to flow through starting late Q3-Q1 2020. Forecast for S&P forward earnings are around $150 which might justify 3,000 at the fully valued top end of range (really that 22x high water mark is on T-12 earnings not forward) except everyone expects those forecasts to be reduced, they are basically every year from where they start out because no one on the street can really forecast that very well. There’s basically 10-15 names driving the marker, FAANG plus a handful of others and the broader market is soft. Opportunity feels more in small and mid cap which is actually more domestically revenue driven businesses generally speaking.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/powell-say ... 1592316029
Now I love those cowboys, I love their gold
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
Farfromgeneva
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Farfromgeneva »

Not sure if these stories are resonating at all but AT&T is cutting 4,600 jobs, approx 3,400 technical gigs and 1,200 or so related to their closing of 250 stores (which are cope gtd but more retail space that’ll need to be back filled and also have a capital requirement as new tenants will require substantial TI allowance (tenant improvement, landlords typically deliver raw space and give a allowance or cut a check that’s often as much as 1/2 - 1.5yrs worth do the rent on a 5-10yr lease).
Now I love those cowboys, I love their gold
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
Peter Brown
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Peter Brown »

Farfromgeneva wrote: Tue Jun 16, 2020 9:00 pm Not sure if these stories are resonating at all but AT&T is cutting 4,600 jobs, approx 3,400 technical gigs and 1,200 or so related to their closing of 250 stores (which are cope gtd but more retail space that’ll need to be back filled and also have a capital requirement as new tenants will require substantial TI allowance (tenant improvement, landlords typically deliver raw space and give a allowance or cut a check that’s often as much as 1/2 - 1.5yrs worth do the rent on a 5-10yr lease).


The Left is like an ear wedgie drone of bad news.

I see you missed yesterday's real historic news so let me help:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/16/us-reta ... -2020.html
foreverlax
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by foreverlax »

Peter Brown wrote: Wed Jun 17, 2020 8:51 am
Farfromgeneva wrote: Tue Jun 16, 2020 9:00 pm Not sure if these stories are resonating at all but AT&T is cutting 4,600 jobs, approx 3,400 technical gigs and 1,200 or so related to their closing of 250 stores (which are cope gtd but more retail space that’ll need to be back filled and also have a capital requirement as new tenants will require substantial TI allowance (tenant improvement, landlords typically deliver raw space and give a allowance or cut a check that’s often as much as 1/2 - 1.5yrs worth do the rent on a 5-10yr lease).


The Left is like an ear wedgie drone of bad news.

I see you missed yesterday's real historic news so let me help:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/16/us-reta ... -2020.html
Here is a simple math lesson - when you go down 50%, you need 100% to get you back to even. 100% sure sounds good, until you realize you're right back where you started from....which in this case we're not.
Peter Brown
Posts: 12878
Joined: Fri Mar 15, 2019 11:19 am

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Peter Brown »

foreverlax wrote: Wed Jun 17, 2020 9:00 am
Peter Brown wrote: Wed Jun 17, 2020 8:51 am
Farfromgeneva wrote: Tue Jun 16, 2020 9:00 pm Not sure if these stories are resonating at all but AT&T is cutting 4,600 jobs, approx 3,400 technical gigs and 1,200 or so related to their closing of 250 stores (which are cope gtd but more retail space that’ll need to be back filled and also have a capital requirement as new tenants will require substantial TI allowance (tenant improvement, landlords typically deliver raw space and give a allowance or cut a check that’s often as much as 1/2 - 1.5yrs worth do the rent on a 5-10yr lease).


The Left is like an ear wedgie drone of bad news.

I see you missed yesterday's real historic news so let me help:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/16/us-reta ... -2020.html
Here is a simple math lesson - when you go down 50%, you need 100% to get you back to even. 100% sure sounds good, until you realize you're right back where you started from....which in this case we're not.


Perception is reality in so many cases, and perception here is positive. People generally want to feel good, not morose.
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