LaxPower Back-Up Stick

njbill wrote: ↑Thu Jul 25, 2024 9:42 pm Don’t tell ggait, but the new battleground polls show Harris doing either about the same or worse than Joe in each state.

Oh, no. How could the computers be wrong? Unpossible. Crunch the numbers again. Get out the abacuses.

No surprise that the sugar high bump, which appears to have resonated nationally, is not resonating in the critical swing states.

njbill wrote: ↑Thu Jul 25, 2024 6:42 pm
Don’t tell ggait, but the new battleground polls show Harris doing either about the same or worse than Joe in each state.

youthathletics wrote: ↑Fri Jul 26, 2024 12:03 pm Some levity, this young lady is good: https://x.com/mommyrn88/status/1815379600563736599

njbill wrote: ↑Fri Jul 26, 2024 12:34 pm I think Maya Rudolph has that gig locked up, but this lady, no doubt, would be cheaper.

jhu72 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 26, 2024 1:36 pm .... a democratic voter poll has chosen Mark Kelly by a 2:1 margin over the field, as the most desirable VP candidate.

cradleandshoot wrote: ↑Fri Jul 26, 2024 2:03 pm

jhu72 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 26, 2024 1:36 pm .... a democratic voter poll has chosen Mark Kelly by a 2:1 margin over the field, as the most desirable VP candidate.

He would be a very good choice.

Seacoaster(1) wrote: ↑Fri Jul 26, 2024 2:54 pm Recent Trump speech, verbatim:

“Which is incapable of solvin’ even the sollest problem. We are an institute in a powerful death penalty. We will put this on.”

America’s representative to the world. How proud am I?

ggait wrote: ↑Fri Jul 26, 2024 2:43 pm Bill -- while we wait for the computers to reboot on the entire state-by-state analysis, here's a current partial snapshot.

To keep it apples-to-apples, let's just look at the Emerson poll.

The 7/15-16 Emerson poll showed Biden behind in every single swing state. Both two man race and also with third party candidates included.

With third parties included, Joe was -10 in AZ, -5 in GA, -3 in Mich, -3 in NV, -9 in NC, -6 in PA, -3 in WI.

The 7/22-23 Emerson Poll with third parties has Harris at -8 in AZ (better than Joe), -3 in GA (better than Joe); tied in Mich (better than Joe), NV n/a, NC n/a, -2 in PA (better than Joe), tied in WI (better than Joe).

If you give Harris the ties in Mich and WI, she loses 251/287 in the EC. Joe was losing 226/312 when he dropped out.

So far, seems like bringing Harris in from the bullpen was a good move. But the Dems are still losing.

njbill wrote: ↑Fri Jul 26, 2024 11:04 am You must have loved Bill Clinton and Dick Morris. They would poll on what tie Bill should wear that day. (Hint: the one Monica got him).

Better tell your computers to get crackin' and stop slackin'. Or are they down due to the Microsoft issues?

Yes, Harris will do better with the demos you mentioned and worse with older white voters and black males than Joe. Enough to win NAG? I think those states are going red this cycle. Kelly could help in AZ. Maybe. But Dems are worried about losing his Senate seat. Yes, the Dem governor will appoint a successor, but there will be a relatively early election to pick his replacement (well before his current term expires in 2028).

As I have been saying, Dems need to win all three blue wall states to win this year. Joe was built to win in those states. Kamala is not.

In PA, the question is whether she'll get enough young and black women voters to offset her losses with older whites and black men. PA's voters tend to be older so I don't like her chances. Shapiro would help in PA, but may hurt in Michigan given his very pro-Israel, anti-Palestinian actions. Enough to get her across the finish line in PA? Maybe but I'd be surprised. People always think the VP nominee matters, but it really doesn't. Maybe Tina Fey in 2008, but that was an outlier. People make their decision on who is on top of the ticket. For frigs sake, HW won with Quayle.

Cooper is an interesting possibility since he is term limited. Don't know much about him. Maybe he could help in NC and in the blue wall states, but again, voters don't decide based on who the VP is.

As to Emerson, their polls differ from the ones I mentioned. Not surprising, as polls vary. I note you didn't mention the headline: "New Emerson College Polling/The Hill polling in five swing states finds Vice President Kamala Harris trailing former President Donald Trump in four states, and tied in Wisconsin." Thus, she is still behind Trump. Critically, to my thinking, these polls could be highs for Harris (maybe post-convention will be better) while, as I have said, the recent polls were likely Joe's low numbers. Plus, the article does not mention the differential between Joe and Trump, which is the most important metric. Maybe's Trump's numbers went up when he was pitted againt Harris. To use AZ as an example, Emerson has Trump at 49 and Harris at 44. The article says Joe was at 40. But where was Trump when Joe was at 40? I certainly don't recall Joe being down 9 points to Trump in AZ.

As to the NYT poll, interesting responses but, as I have said over and over, the only important question is who would you vote for? At the end of the day, people would have voted for Joe over the alternative (America's Hitler according to JD) even if they wanted him to drop out.