2024

[njbill]

Don’t tell ggait, but the new battleground polls show Harris doing either about the same or worse than Joe in each state.

Oh, no. How could the computers be wrong? Unpossible. Crunch the numbers again. Get out the abacuses.

No surprise that the sugar high bump, which appears to have resonated nationally, is not resonating in the critical swing states.

[old salt]

KY Governor Andy Bashear is running hard to be Kamala's wingman. His battle with JD Vance over which one is the most authentic hillbilly has great comedic potential. I wonder if young Andy had sugary soda in his baby bottle, growing up in the state capital ?
It was clever of JD to specify Diet Mountain Dew. Round One goes to Vance

[Kismet]

Keep defending idiots who you claim not to support. Your attempts at humor are not even humorous.
Your latest hero now wants to criminalize women traveling out of state for healthcare. Brilliant.

After listening to Vance, now can understand why Neanderthals went extinct!

Have you checked to see if your brown shirt is ready at the cleaners yet?

[ggait]

Don’t tell ggait, but the new battleground polls show Harris doing either about the same or worse than Joe in each state.

Oh, no. How could the computers be wrong? Unpossible. Crunch the numbers again. Get out the abacuses.

No surprise that the sugar high bump, which appears to have resonated nationally, is not resonating in the critical swing states.

Bill -- The computers, my South Jersey barrister friend, are currently silent. They are waiting for sufficient new data to emerge before rebooting their forecasts.

The homepage of 538 this morning says "Forecast suspended."

The Economist says this: "Editor’s note (July 21st): Joe Biden has stepped down as the Democratic nominee. We have paused the forecast until we have sufficient polling data about his successor."

Silver Bulletin says this: "We’ll turn the model back on in a week or so once we’ve gotten enough polling on Kamala Harris and/or other prospective Democratic nominees."

No surprise that initial polls show Harris doing better with young, female, brown and black voters (GA, AZ, NV). And not as good as Joe with white working class men and oldsters (Blue Wall). Good that Harris has basically erased the downdraft from Joe's catastrophic debate face plant. Also interesting that Kamala is doing even better when RFK Jr. is included. A tea leaf that RFK Jr. may now be hurting Trump more in a Harris/Trump race than a Biden/Harris race.

But we really don't know what the Electoral College net net will be until SkyNet tells us. My "gut" is a higher win prob for Harris than than Joe, but still an underdog.

So let's regroup once the computers actually start to talk again. And when we do that, remember that the computer's benchmark is Joe's turbo-charged 10-15% forecasted win probability. Which is roughly the same chance as drawing to an inside straight.

ggait, esq. : )


P.S. Did you see that today's NY Times poll says 87% of Americans agree with Joe dropping out. 87%!!! You can't get 87% of Americans to agree that today is Friday.

[ggait]

Bill -- so what's your opinion of Shapiro as veep?

Seems like the obvious choice, given his popularity in very important PA.

But do you think a Jewish lawyer from the Philly suburbs is really going to make the difference in the Rust Belt? Maybe Kelly (macho) or Cooper (bubba) would pull more votes from the white guys?

[ggait]

njbill wrote: ↑Thu Jul 25, 2024 6:42 pm
Don’t tell ggait, but the new battleground polls show Harris doing either about the same or worse than Joe in each state.

Yesterday's Emerson College poll disagrees with this:

Support for Harris surpassed Biden’s support from earlier this month in all five states; in Arizona, by four points (Biden’s 40% to Harris’ 44%), Georgia by five points (41% to 46%), Michigan by three points (42% to 45%), Pennsylvania by three points (43% to 46%), and Wisconsin by four points (43% to 47%).

“Harris has recovered a portion of the vote for the Democrats on the presidential ticket since the fallout after the June 27 debate,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Harris’ numbers now reflect similar support levels to those of Biden back in March.”

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/july- ... wisconsin/

[njbill]

You must have loved Bill Clinton and Dick Morris. They would poll on what tie Bill should wear that day. (Hint: the one Monica got him).

Better tell your computers to get crackin' and stop slackin'. Or are they down due to the Microsoft issues?

Yes, Harris will do better with the demos you mentioned and worse with older white voters and black males than Joe. Enough to win NAG? I think those states are going red this cycle. Kelly could help in AZ. Maybe. But Dems are worried about losing his Senate seat. Yes, the Dem governor will appoint a successor, but there will be a relatively early election to pick his replacement (well before his current term expires in 2028).

As I have been saying, Dems need to win all three blue wall states to win this year. Joe was built to win in those states. Kamala is not.

In PA, the question is whether she'll get enough young and black women voters to offset her losses with older whites and black men. PA's voters tend to be older so I don't like her chances. Shapiro would help in PA, but may hurt in Michigan given his very pro-Israel, anti-Palestinian actions. Enough to get her across the finish line in PA? Maybe but I'd be surprised. People always think the VP nominee matters, but it really doesn't. Maybe Tina Fey in 2008, but that was an outlier. People make their decision on who is on top of the ticket. For frigs sake, HW won with Quayle.

Cooper is an interesting possibility since he is term limited. Don't know much about him. Maybe he could help in NC and in the blue wall states, but again, voters don't decide based on who the VP is.

As to Emerson, their polls differ from the ones I mentioned. Not surprising, as polls vary. I note you didn't mention the headline: "New Emerson College Polling/The Hill polling in five swing states finds Vice President Kamala Harris trailing former President Donald Trump in four states, and tied in Wisconsin." Thus, she is still behind Trump. Critically, to my thinking, these polls could be highs for Harris (maybe post-convention will be better) while, as I have said, the recent polls were likely Joe's low numbers. Plus, the article does not mention the differential between Joe and Trump, which is the most important metric. Maybe's Trump's numbers went up when he was pitted againt Harris. To use AZ as an example, Emerson has Trump at 49 and Harris at 44. The article says Joe was at 40. But where was Trump when Joe was at 40? I certainly don't recall Joe being down 9 points to Trump in AZ.

As to the NYT poll, interesting responses but, as I have said over and over, the only important question is who would you vote for? At the end of the day, people would have voted for Joe over the alternative (America's Hitler according to JD) even if they wanted him to drop out.

[youthathletics]

Some levity, this young lady is good: https://x.com/mommyrn88/status/1815379600563736599

[cradleandshoot]

Some levity, this young lady is good: https://x.com/mommyrn88/status/1815379600563736599

I wonder if she'll get a call from SNL? She nailed her voice like spot on.

[njbill]

I think Maya Rudolph has that gig locked up, but this lady, no doubt, would be cheaper.

[cradleandshoot]

I think Maya Rudolph has that gig locked up, but this lady, no doubt, would be cheaper.

You wouldn't think it would be so, but good political satire can be brutal. I expect that in some format this woman is going to make a bundle of money.

[jhu72]

.... a democratic voter poll has chosen Mark Kelly by a 2:1 margin over the field, as the most desirable VP candidate.

[cradleandshoot]

.... a democratic voter poll has chosen Mark Kelly by a 2:1 margin over the field, as the most desirable VP candidate.

He would be a very good choice.

[ggait]

Bill -- while we wait for the computers to reboot on the entire state-by-state analysis, here's a current partial snapshot.

To keep it apples-to-apples, let's just look at the Emerson poll.

The 7/15-16 Emerson poll showed Biden behind in every single swing state. Both two man race and also with third party candidates included.

With third parties included, Joe was -10 in AZ, -5 in GA, -3 in Mich, -3 in NV, -9 in NC, -6 in PA, -3 in WI.

The 7/22-23 Emerson Poll with third parties has Harris at -8 in AZ (better than Joe), -3 in GA (better than Joe); tied in Mich (better than Joe), NV n/a, NC n/a, -2 in PA (better than Joe), tied in WI (better than Joe).

If you give Harris the ties in Mich and WI, she loses 251/287 in the EC. Joe was losing 226/312 when he dropped out.

So far, seems like bringing Harris in from the bullpen was a good move. But the Dems are still losing.

[Seacoaster(1)]

Recent Trump speech, verbatim:

“Which is incapable of solvin’ even the sollest problem. We are an institute in a powerful death penalty. We will put this on.”

America’s representative to the world. How proud am I?

[jhu72]

.... a democratic voter poll has chosen Mark Kelly by a 2:1 margin over the field, as the most desirable VP candidate.

He would be a very good choice.

... we once again agree.

[jhu72]

Recent Trump speech, verbatim:

“Which is incapable of solvin’ even the sollest problem. We are an institute in a powerful death penalty. We will put this on.”

America’s representative to the world. How proud am I?

... he speaks words real good. No problem with this old man brain!

[jhu72]

Opus Dei involved in Project 2025.

[njbill]

Bill -- while we wait for the computers to reboot on the entire state-by-state analysis, here's a current partial snapshot.

To keep it apples-to-apples, let's just look at the Emerson poll.

The 7/15-16 Emerson poll showed Biden behind in every single swing state. Both two man race and also with third party candidates included.

With third parties included, Joe was -10 in AZ, -5 in GA, -3 in Mich, -3 in NV, -9 in NC, -6 in PA, -3 in WI.

The 7/22-23 Emerson Poll with third parties has Harris at -8 in AZ (better than Joe), -3 in GA (better than Joe); tied in Mich (better than Joe), NV n/a, NC n/a, -2 in PA (better than Joe), tied in WI (better than Joe).

If you give Harris the ties in Mich and WI, she loses 251/287 in the EC. Joe was losing 226/312 when he dropped out.

So far, seems like bringing Harris in from the bullpen was a good move. But the Dems are still losing.

You are relying on that one poll, as you know. The polls I mentioned have different results.

And I believe Harris may be at her high, although the high could be post convention, while Joe was at his low. I know the computers don’t like to look at anything except numbers, but real world factors should be taken into account as well.

Again, I certainly hope she wins. I hope the Dems have some tricks up their sleeves for October. I’ve mentioned one I hope they have. Still a long way to go.

[PizzaSnake]

You must have loved Bill Clinton and Dick Morris. They would poll on what tie Bill should wear that day. (Hint: the one Monica got him).

Better tell your computers to get crackin' and stop slackin'. Or are they down due to the Microsoft issues?

Yes, Harris will do better with the demos you mentioned and worse with older white voters and black males than Joe. Enough to win NAG? I think those states are going red this cycle. Kelly could help in AZ. Maybe. But Dems are worried about losing his Senate seat. Yes, the Dem governor will appoint a successor, but there will be a relatively early election to pick his replacement (well before his current term expires in 2028).

As I have been saying, Dems need to win all three blue wall states to win this year. Joe was built to win in those states. Kamala is not.

In PA, the question is whether she'll get enough young and black women voters to offset her losses with older whites and black men. PA's voters tend to be older so I don't like her chances. Shapiro would help in PA, but may hurt in Michigan given his very pro-Israel, anti-Palestinian actions. Enough to get her across the finish line in PA? Maybe but I'd be surprised. People always think the VP nominee matters, but it really doesn't. Maybe Tina Fey in 2008, but that was an outlier. People make their decision on who is on top of the ticket. For frigs sake, HW won with Quayle.

Cooper is an interesting possibility since he is term limited. Don't know much about him. Maybe he could help in NC and in the blue wall states, but again, voters don't decide based on who the VP is.

As to Emerson, their polls differ from the ones I mentioned. Not surprising, as polls vary. I note you didn't mention the headline: "New Emerson College Polling/The Hill polling in five swing states finds Vice President Kamala Harris trailing former President Donald Trump in four states, and tied in Wisconsin." Thus, she is still behind Trump. Critically, to my thinking, these polls could be highs for Harris (maybe post-convention will be better) while, as I have said, the recent polls were likely Joe's low numbers. Plus, the article does not mention the differential between Joe and Trump, which is the most important metric. Maybe's Trump's numbers went up when he was pitted againt Harris. To use AZ as an example, Emerson has Trump at 49 and Harris at 44. The article says Joe was at 40. But where was Trump when Joe was at 40? I certainly don't recall Joe being down 9 points to Trump in AZ.

As to the NYT poll, interesting responses but, as I have said over and over, the only important question is who would you vote for? At the end of the day, people would have voted for Joe over the alternative (America's Hitler according to JD) even if they wanted him to drop out.

Trump’s campaign had better stop fcuking with Taylor Swift. There are a lot of Swifties…