LaxPower Back-Up Stick

Laxxal22 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 28, 2024 2:25 pm

Laxattackjack wrote: ↑Sun Jan 28, 2024 9:20 am Tufts on the other hand, seems to be going in the other direction. They had an undergrad enrollment of 5200 in 2016 and for 2021, it says 6800.
2016 had an acceptance rate of 40%, 2021 is 10%

In the spirit of "How many Duke players..."

If it's announced this week that Tufts is joining the Patriot League beginning the 2025/26 academic year, where do you think they are by 2030 when they'd first be eligible for postseason play?

In my opinion they'd get on track pretty fast. The majority of current players/commits cool with moving to a D1 athlete's lifestyle could still contribute, so there wouldn't be the need to reset the program's identity with 30 freshmen + transfers. And the school's draws give it a higher ceiling than most of the D2/D3 teams that have moved up, which would put them in play for pretty high level recruits by year 2-3 of the transition as postseason play would be possible for at least half of their careers.

It might be aggressive, but I think they'd be PL tournament-worthy by the first year of eligibility and pretty quickly move into the BU, Villanova, Richmond tier of teams. To me this highlights how unique Tufts is within the NESCAC, as I think every other team in the league would be a poor man's Hobart at best if they transitioned. The strength of those schools is in being a strong alternative to D1—Tufts actually has the bones to grow into a D1 program.

Yea, but if you want to talk how close the divisions in lacrosse are, it works both ways, take NJIT for example. Drop them in the NESCAC, they’re immediately in the top grouping, and in 2-3 years of learning the landscape, it’s their conference to lose.

Tufts
NJIT / Bowdoin / Amherst
Williams
Weslyan
….

RE6ULATOR wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2024 9:18 am

Laxxal22 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 28, 2024 2:25 pm

Laxattackjack wrote: ↑Sun Jan 28, 2024 9:20 am Tufts on the other hand, seems to be going in the other direction. They had an undergrad enrollment of 5200 in 2016 and for 2021, it says 6800.
2016 had an acceptance rate of 40%, 2021 is 10%

In the spirit of "How many Duke players..."

If it's announced this week that Tufts is joining the Patriot League beginning the 2025/26 academic year, where do you think they are by 2030 when they'd first be eligible for postseason play?

In my opinion they'd get on track pretty fast. The majority of current players/commits cool with moving to a D1 athlete's lifestyle could still contribute, so there wouldn't be the need to reset the program's identity with 30 freshmen + transfers. And the school's draws give it a higher ceiling than most of the D2/D3 teams that have moved up, which would put them in play for pretty high level recruits by year 2-3 of the transition as postseason play would be possible for at least half of their careers.

It might be aggressive, but I think they'd be PL tournament-worthy by the first year of eligibility and pretty quickly move into the BU, Villanova, Richmond tier of teams. To me this highlights how unique Tufts is within the NESCAC, as I think every other team in the league would be a poor man's Hobart at best if they transitioned. The strength of those schools is in being a strong alternative to D1—Tufts actually has the bones to grow into a D1 program.

Yea, but if you want to talk how close the divisions in lacrosse are, it works both ways, take NJIT for example. Drop them in the NESCAC, they’re immediately in the top grouping, and in 2-3 years of learning the landscape, it’s their conference to lose.

Tufts
NJIT / Bowdoin / Amherst
Williams
Weslyan
….

This theory doesn’t hold water anymore. We had three real world examples of top 15 level D3 easily handling lower level D1 teams this past weekend. These were legit scrimmages with starters playing for all teams. CNU pulled the starters in the first half and still beat Hampton by 20
York opened up the bench early in the third , up 15-6 and was basically playing freshman by the 4th .
Denison was up on Cleveland state until they cleared the bench after the 3rd.

The top 25 D1 teams are elite. The next 25 are still pretty good. But by the time you get to then bottom 1/4 of d1, the talent really drops off

NJIT might not even score a goal against Tufts. They aren’t beating any of the top NESCAC teams. After this weekend, I don’t even think NJIT or a Wagner would win the MAC Freedom conference.

Actually drop NJIT into the NESCAC and for the first year or two they are indeed maybe 3 or 4 in the conference but after that they rapidly get worse. They are the worst academic school in the conference and, without any ability to give scholarships anymore and located in Newark, there is no reason for any player who could get into one of the other NESCACs to chose them. Their roster sinks even lower than it is now.

RE6ULATOR wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2024 9:18 am

Laxxal22 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 28, 2024 2:25 pm

Laxattackjack wrote: ↑Sun Jan 28, 2024 9:20 am Tufts on the other hand, seems to be going in the other direction. They had an undergrad enrollment of 5200 in 2016 and for 2021, it says 6800.
2016 had an acceptance rate of 40%, 2021 is 10%

In the spirit of "How many Duke players..."

If it's announced this week that Tufts is joining the Patriot League beginning the 2025/26 academic year, where do you think they are by 2030 when they'd first be eligible for postseason play?

In my opinion they'd get on track pretty fast. The majority of current players/commits cool with moving to a D1 athlete's lifestyle could still contribute, so there wouldn't be the need to reset the program's identity with 30 freshmen + transfers. And the school's draws give it a higher ceiling than most of the D2/D3 teams that have moved up, which would put them in play for pretty high level recruits by year 2-3 of the transition as postseason play would be possible for at least half of their careers.

It might be aggressive, but I think they'd be PL tournament-worthy by the first year of eligibility and pretty quickly move into the BU, Villanova, Richmond tier of teams. To me this highlights how unique Tufts is within the NESCAC, as I think every other team in the league would be a poor man's Hobart at best if they transitioned. The strength of those schools is in being a strong alternative to D1—Tufts actually has the bones to grow into a D1 program.

Yea, but if you want to talk how close the divisions in lacrosse are, it works both ways, take NJIT for example. Drop them in the NESCAC, they’re immediately in the top grouping, and in 2-3 years of learning the landscape, it’s their conference to lose.

Tufts
NJIT / Bowdoin / Amherst
Williams
Weslyan
….

I think this belief is misguided, would NJIT be in the middle group probably but would certainly lose to the top 3 based on last year's schedule where the only best 3 of the worst teams in D1 while also losing to a bad Wagner team. it seems pretty clear based on Saturday's scrimmage results< which were in effect game scrimmages for the D1 schools, that even good top 20 schools in D3 can play with the bottom of D1. It is probably not fair to assess the CNU/Hampton scrimmage but the way that York dismantled Wagner was telling in both respects as York is a fringe top 10 team in D3.

I also do not think you are taking into account the idea that kids want to say they play D1 lacrosse which makes schools Like NJIT attractive. the exodus would be similar to Hartford where kids believed that they could play D1 and they left. Put NJIT in D3 and their recruiting would change. Too bad we can't get a NJIT vs. Stevens match-up I rthink that would be a good game.

Laxattackjack wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2024 9:46 am

RE6ULATOR wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2024 9:18 am

Laxxal22 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 28, 2024 2:25 pm

Laxattackjack wrote: ↑Sun Jan 28, 2024 9:20 am Tufts on the other hand, seems to be going in the other direction. They had an undergrad enrollment of 5200 in 2016 and for 2021, it says 6800.
2016 had an acceptance rate of 40%, 2021 is 10%

In the spirit of "How many Duke players..."

If it's announced this week that Tufts is joining the Patriot League beginning the 2025/26 academic year, where do you think they are by 2030 when they'd first be eligible for postseason play?

In my opinion they'd get on track pretty fast. The majority of current players/commits cool with moving to a D1 athlete's lifestyle could still contribute, so there wouldn't be the need to reset the program's identity with 30 freshmen + transfers. And the school's draws give it a higher ceiling than most of the D2/D3 teams that have moved up, which would put them in play for pretty high level recruits by year 2-3 of the transition as postseason play would be possible for at least half of their careers.

It might be aggressive, but I think they'd be PL tournament-worthy by the first year of eligibility and pretty quickly move into the BU, Villanova, Richmond tier of teams. To me this highlights how unique Tufts is within the NESCAC, as I think every other team in the league would be a poor man's Hobart at best if they transitioned. The strength of those schools is in being a strong alternative to D1—Tufts actually has the bones to grow into a D1 program.

Yea, but if you want to talk how close the divisions in lacrosse are, it works both ways, take NJIT for example. Drop them in the NESCAC, they’re immediately in the top grouping, and in 2-3 years of learning the landscape, it’s their conference to lose.

Tufts
NJIT / Bowdoin / Amherst
Williams
Weslyan
….

This theory doesn’t hold water anymore. We had three real world examples of top 15 level D3 easily handling lower level D1 teams this past weekend. These were legit scrimmages with starters playing for all teams. CNU pulled the starters in the first half and still beat Hampton by 20
York opened up the bench early in the third , up 15-6 and was basically playing freshman by the 4th .
Denison was up on Cleveland state until they cleared the bench after the 3rd.

The top 25 D1 teams are elite. The next 25 are still pretty good. But by the time you get to then bottom 1/4 of d1, the talent really drops off

NJIT might not even score a goal against Tufts. They aren’t beating any of the top NESCAC teams. After this weekend, I don’t even think NJIT or a Wagner would win the MAC Freedom conference.

Hampton? Dude, Hampton has not won a game in against a D1 program yet. The last time NJIT played them, NJIT won 24-7. Do some homework because your take is lazy as turd. CNU scrimmages Hampton every year due the close proximity of the campuses, 17 miles a part, and the "Grow the Game" theme that gets regurgitated over and over.

As he continently ignores the Cleveland state and Wagner results.

Checks 2023 results….. sees that Wagner and NJIT are very similar teams.

Laxattackjack wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2024 10:35 am As he continently ignores the Cleveland state and Wagner results.

Checks 2023 results….. sees that Wagner and NJIT are very similar teams.

I know nothing about Cleveland state, but I doubt they played starters deep, they open the season this Saturday, 2/3.

York is a very good team, well coached. Wagner is a mess and lost a lot of kids, including their goalie and ssdm, both went to Ohio St, a pole that went to Kean, and an LSM whereabouts unknown. Wagner may not win a game this year, so I'm not surprised at all.

I went the NJIT/Sacred Heart scrimmage this past Saturday, and they're much better then 2022-23. They may win 4-5 games this year, but if you drop them in a D3 conference, other than CLC, Liberty, they win the conference. NESCAC would be tough, but Tufts lost too much.

laxdad1434 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2024 11:01 am

Laxattackjack wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2024 10:35 am As he continently ignores the Cleveland state and Wagner results.

Checks 2023 results….. sees that Wagner and NJIT are very similar teams.

I know nothing about Cleveland state, but I doubt they played starters deep, they open the season this Saturday, 2/3.

York is a very good team, well coached. Wagner is a mess and lost a lot of kids, including their goalie and ssdm, both went to Ohio St, a pole that went to Kean, and an LSM whereabouts unknown. Wagner may not win a game this year, so I'm not surprised at all.

I went the NJIT/Sacred Heart scrimmage this past Saturday, and they're much better then 2022-23. They may win 4-5 games this year, but if you drop them in a D3 conference, other than CLC, Liberty, they win the conference. Tufts would be tough, but they too much.

I love how the D1 scrimmage holds more credence to you than the D1/D3 scrimmage even though they were likely played in excatly the same fashion. And then you are using a scrimmage result from a team that was equally bad to NJIT to prove that NJIT is better, that is funny. As I said if NJIT went to the NESCAC their recruiting would get worse because they could not sell the "D1" thing to the parents

[/quote]

Yea, but if you want to talk how close the divisions in lacrosse are, it works both ways, take NJIT for example. Drop them in the NESCAC, they’re immediately in the top grouping, and in 2-3 years of learning the landscape, it’s their conference to lose.

Tufts
NJIT / Bowdoin / Amherst
Williams
Weslyan
….
[/quote]

Do you have a beef with Coach Campbell? You're certainly consistent. Gentlemen's bet on whether all 5 of your higher seeds actually finish above Midd in the Nescac standing(s)?

lax1983 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2024 8:30 am

Can Opener wrote: ↑Sun Jan 28, 2024 9:22 pm Interesting data point yesterday as Denison led Cleveland State 12-8 after the first three quarters of their scrimmage. Both teams substituted liberally in Q4 and CSU eked out a one-goal win. Cleveland State finished last season ranked #54 in RPI, just behind Lafayette and ahead of Bucknell, Colgate and Holy Cross. If Denison can do that, there is little doubt Tufts would be in the mix for a PL playoff spot immediately. On a related note, York manhandled D1 Wagner yesterday.

But they also lost to d2 mercyhurst ;]

Denison’s first unit played 3Q against Clev State as pointed out above. I doubt very much they would have rolled them back out to play Mercyhurst right after. They played back to back. So I think we can assume the Denison lineup vs Mercyhurst was underclassman and FY’s.

Chipzhoo wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2024 11:45 am

Yea, but if you want to talk how close the divisions in lacrosse are, it works both ways, take NJIT for example. Drop them in the NESCAC, they’re immediately in the top grouping, and in 2-3 years of learning the landscape, it’s their conference to lose.

Tufts
NJIT / Bowdoin / Amherst
Williams
Weslyan
….
[/quote]

Do you have a beef with Coach Campbell? You're certainly consistent. Gentlemen's bet on whether all 5 of your higher seeds actually finish above Midd in the Nescac standing(s)?
[/quote]

Who is “Coach Campbell?”

pcowlax wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2024 9:51 am Actually drop NJIT into the NESCAC and for the first year or two they are indeed maybe 3 or 4 in the conference but after that they rapidly get worse. They are the worst academic school in the conference and, without any ability to give scholarships anymore and located in Newark, there is no reason for any player who could get into one of the other NESCACs to chose them. Their roster sinks even lower than it is now.

So flip it. Bring NESCAC to DI. They keep their academic standards, they still play second fiddle to IVY, and they still get the same kids. NJIT gets same kids they have been. Now what?

pcowlax wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2024 9:51 am Actually drop NJIT into the NESCAC and for the first year or two they are indeed maybe 3 or 4 in the conference but after that they rapidly get worse. They are the worst academic school in the conference and, without any ability to give scholarships anymore and located in Newark, there is no reason for any player who could get into one of the other NESCACs to chose them. Their roster sinks even lower than it is now.

The same kids that want to be doctors, engineers and scientists will go to NJIT. Why would that change?

RE6ULATOR wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2024 11:56 am

pcowlax wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2024 9:51 am Actually drop NJIT into the NESCAC and for the first year or two they are indeed maybe 3 or 4 in the conference but after that they rapidly get worse. They are the worst academic school in the conference and, without any ability to give scholarships anymore and located in Newark, there is no reason for any player who could get into one of the other NESCACs to chose them. Their roster sinks even lower than it is now.

So flip it. Bring NESCAC to DI. They keep their academic standards, they still play second fiddle to IVY, and they still get the same kids. NJIT gets same kids they have been. Now what?

NESCAC with scholarships, yes they would outpace NJIT almost as quickly.

RE6ULATOR wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2024 11:56 am

pcowlax wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2024 9:51 am Actually drop NJIT into the NESCAC and for the first year or two they are indeed maybe 3 or 4 in the conference but after that they rapidly get worse. They are the worst academic school in the conference and, without any ability to give scholarships anymore and located in Newark, there is no reason for any player who could get into one of the other NESCACs to chose them. Their roster sinks even lower than it is now.

So flip it. Bring NESCAC to DI. They keep their academic standards, they still play second fiddle to IVY, and they still get the same kids. NJIT gets same kids they have been. Now what?

That’s a little better question. I would assume that NESCACs would not in fact offer athletic scholarships, ala the IVYs, both due to academic philosophy and the small sizes of the schools. They would never-the-less get better as some of the sort of players who went IVY or Duke and sat on the bench would choose Middlebury to be at a great school, be able to say they were playing D1 and to see the field. The gap would close a bit with IVYs but there would still be a gap. Tufts would still stomp Dartmouth (pending any further improvement by them) and would probably be better than the 6th place Ivy as well. There would remain a gap however both due to the residual advantage in name cache for Ivys and for the inability of NESCACs to bring in as many lax tips due to the differences in school sizes. They would never have comparable depth. NESCAC going D1 would not affect NJIT at all, as there are no kids there who would have and could have gone NESCAC but chose NJIT for the D1 name. Instead of being the 3rd or 4th best team, they would be 5th or 6th after a few years.

laxdad1434 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2024 12:08 pm

pcowlax wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2024 9:51 am Actually drop NJIT into the NESCAC and for the first year or two they are indeed maybe 3 or 4 in the conference but after that they rapidly get worse. They are the worst academic school in the conference and, without any ability to give scholarships anymore and located in Newark, there is no reason for any player who could get into one of the other NESCACs to chose them. Their roster sinks even lower than it is now.

The same kids that want to be doctors, engineers and scientists will go to NJIT. Why would that change?

Your persistence in believing NJIT is some sort of prestigious school because it has “IT” in its name is endearing.

pcowlax wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2024 12:31 pm

laxdad1434 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2024 12:08 pm

pcowlax wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2024 9:51 am Actually drop NJIT into the NESCAC and for the first year or two they are indeed maybe 3 or 4 in the conference but after that they rapidly get worse. They are the worst academic school in the conference and, without any ability to give scholarships anymore and located in Newark, there is no reason for any player who could get into one of the other NESCACs to chose them. Their roster sinks even lower than it is now.

The same kids that want to be doctors, engineers and scientists will go to NJIT. Why would that change?

Your persistence in believing NJIT is some sort of prestigious school because it has “IT” in its name is endearing.

Persistence, prestigious? It's a very good STEM school that doesn't cost $70k a year. New England and Upstate NY isn't for everyone.

As to how well NJIT would do in the NESCAC, please consider where they stack up in the pecking order of D1. Last year they finished with a worse record and 10 places behind Cleveland State in the D1 RPI. Denison’s starters “won” over the CSU starters on the road, leading at halftime and leading after three quarters. Denison is currently ranked #18 in the IL preseason poll, behind Tufts, Bowdoin, Middlebury and Amherst. That would maybe put CSU somewhere in the Williams/Wesleyan/Trinity/Hamilton range. But please remember that last year, NJIT was worse than CSU, ranked #64 with a 3-10 record. Those three wins came over Lindenwood, Wagner and UMass Lowell, 3 of the 7 worst teams in D1. Those NJIT wins were by a combined total of 4 goals. I know the transitive property is flawed with respect to sports teams, but it is safe to say that NJIT was a worse team than CSU in 2023, which would place NJIT in the bottom third of the NESCAC.

Obviously the Denison/CSU scrimmage is a small sample size, but it is probably the best data point out there, reinforced by the York scrimmage win over Wagner. (Wagner led NJIT 7-5 after three quarters on the road last year before giving up 5 goals in the fourth quarter to lose 10-8.)

If you want to play around with your own relative rankings, the final 2023 D1 RPI from the NCAA website is below. As I mentioned in an earlier post, please ask yourself how many of the schools on this 34-75 list you would send your son to over a high academic/high lacrosse NESCAC. The answer to that question also provides the answer as to why the NESCAC consistently out-recruits most of this list.
https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/lacrosse- ... crosse-rpi

34 Bellarmine ASUN 11-6
35 High Point Atlantic 10 9-8
36 UMBC America East 8-5
37 UAlbany America East 6-10
38 Marquette Big East 6-8
39 Marist MAAC 10-8
40 Binghamton America East 9-5
41 Towson CAA 6-9
42 Drexel CAA 8-6
43 Stony Brook CAA 9-7
44 Navy Patriot 8-8
45 Manhattan MAAC 10-5
46 Providence Big East 6-9
47 Merrimack America East 7-7
48 Dartmouth Ivy League 6-6
49 Lafayette Patriot 6-10
50 Mount St. Mary's MAAC 8-8
51 Robert Morris ASUN 8-8
52 Hobart Atlantic 10 5-8
53 Siena MAAC 9-7
54 Cleveland St. ASUN 6-7
55 Mercer ASUN 6-10
56 Quinnipiac MAAC 7-7
57 Fairfield CAA 5-9
58 Hofstra CAA 5-9
59 Monmouth CAA 5-9
60 Sacred Heart MAAC 5-10
61 St. John's Big East 0-14
62 Bucknell Patriot 3-10
63 Colgate Patriot 2-9
64 NJIT America East 3-10
65 VMI MAAC 6-9
66 Detroit Mercy ASUN 2-11
67 St. Bonaventure Atlantic 10 1-13
68 LIU MAAC 5-9
69 Lindenwood ASUN 2-10
70 Wagner MAAC 3-11
71 Canisius MAAC 2-13
72 Queens ASUN 2-12
73 Holy Cross Patriot 1-13
74 UMass Lowell America East 0-13
75 Hampton CAA 0-12

One other quick thought about why top D3 teams are able to outperform lower D1 teams. Lacrosse is different from almost every other sport in that it only takes two or three excellent players to be able to stay in most games. If you have a dominant FO guy -- as Tufts, Bowdoin and Denison did last year -- that alone can help prevent getting blown out. Most college coaches will tell you that FO is by far the most difficult position to evaluate and recruit. It is very easy for a Kohn or Barnard to get missed by the Ivies, for example, and wind up at a NESCAC, only to bloom in college. An excellent goalie is similar and can often get passed over by D1 coaches because of size or unorthodox technique. I would also add to that list athletic, lockdown defenders who are shorter than 6'. D1 coaches like Lars Tiffany love recruiting velociraptors who stand 6' 3" or more.

If you have a hot goalie and a skilled FO guy teamed with an excellent defender who can handle the #1 attackman from a D1 school in the 35-75 RPI range, you will have a chance to win many games. That is different from sports like football, hockey, soccer or basketball where you need strength across the starting lineup or weaknesses will be exploited.

Can Opener wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2024 1:15 pm One other quick thought about why top D3 teams are able to outperform lower D1 teams. Lacrosse is different from almost every other sport in that it only takes two or three excellent players to be able to stay in most games. If you have a dominant FO guy -- as Tufts, Bowdoin and Denison did last year -- that alone can help prevent getting blown out. Most college coaches will tell you that FO is by far the most difficult position to evaluate and recruit. It is very easy for a Kohn or Barnard to get missed by the Ivies, for example, and wind up at a NESCAC, only to bloom in college. An excellent goalie is similar and can often get passed over by D1 coaches because of size or unorthodox technique. I would also add to that list athletic, lockdown defenders who are shorter than 6'. D1 coaches like Lars Tiffany love recruiting velociraptors who stand 6' 3" or more.

If you have a hot goalie and a skilled FO guy teamed with an excellent defender who can handle the #1 attackman from a D1 school in the 35-75 RPI range, you will have a chance to win many games. That is different from sports like football, hockey, soccer or basketball where you need strength across the starting lineup or weaknesses will be exploited.

NJIT