Johns Hopkins 2022

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Homer
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Re: Johns Hopkins 2022

Post by Homer »

OCanada wrote: Wed Mar 16, 2022 10:30 am All your “facts” ate Irrelevant to the question. Fact.
The question you claim to be answering remains elusive to me. You kindly responded last week to my request to clarify the "point" the rest of us keep infuriating you by missing. So far as I can tell, it boils down to:

1. Hopkins' offers of admission to early recruits were always "conditional."
2. Bobby Benson told you that Matt Rambo was set on coming to Hopkins, but they couldn't "get him in."

Absolutely nobody has disagreed with you on Point 1, and for good reason: it's such a vague and obvious claim as to be virtually meaningless. Of course they were "conditional" acceptances; almost everything in life comes with conditions.

The point 51% has made is that, given that about 80-90% of the publicly known commitments resulted in eventual enrollment, the conditions must have been pretty relaxed. The only other possibility is a very stringent screening on the front end. But what 51%'s saying, and what I've said on this in the past, is that it's hard to see how that would even be possible given the minimal academic record (not even taken the PSAT, etc.) available at the time recruits were committing. I haven't seen you refute, or even acknowledge, this argument in any way, shape, or form.

On Point 2, I think the response you've gotten is basically: "It seems unlikely, given the publicly known and privately circulated facts about Rambo's recruitment, that that's exactly what happened. Maybe it was. Still, even if things did go down that way, it's hard to see it, in light of the Hopkins administration's general acquiescence in early recruiting, as indicating a changed approach that's responsible for the program's struggles."

I gather this response is enraging to you. But I have literally no idea what your actual objection to it is.

Honestly, I suspect this gets us closer to the heart of the issue:
Normally i don’t bring personal matters into this kind if steaming pile you have created but just this once. I served on the Board of Blue Jays Unlimited, I was one of the firsf five or so to join Hopkins Hundreds when it begsn amd from the mid 1990s i was in the Athletic Center frequently. I was in the building the day after it was “reported”. I was there.
Okay, so you're a booster! Maybe a big one. You get put on committees. You have access. You're proud of this. I don't mean to diminish it in any way. I just want to try to put in perspective why other people maybe don't treat your position as the trump card you think it should be.

To somebody who wasn't "in the building the day after it was 'reported,'" what you look like is this. You're the guy who gets to stand four places to the left of Brezhnev when they all come out to watch the tanks parade through Red Square. Congratulations, a huge number of people aspire to that spot. But the thing of it is, that guy is the most lied-to person in the world. He's close enough for his support to matter, so that the people closer in have an incentive to spin him, but not close enough to control anything directly or check up on anybody's story.

So there you are watching the tanks, and the guy three places to Brezhnev's left is in your ear: "I have it on good authority from the Deputy Commissar in Magnitogorsk that they were on track to hit their steel quota, until they were sabotaged by that capitalist running dog lackey Kirilenko standing over there two places to Brezhnev's right."

You know about stuff that's going on! -- sort of. You can draw a very reasonable inference that Magnitogorsk isn't going to hit its steel quota this year. Accepting at face value the explanation you've been given as to why it won't would be idiotic. Your credibility to a third-party observer depends on how much you seem to be engaging in the first mode of thought as opposed to the second.

I'm using this absurd analogy precisely because I don't want to impugn any real person's character, but just to point out the structure of relationships. You (booster) are talking to the person (coach) who has most incentive to lie to you about what was said by the person (recruit) who has most incentive to lie to him. I'm not saying the story you were told is untrue! I'm just trying to explain why people don't automatically defer to it.

Am I being unfair with this analogy? Maybe. Still, it was you who came out with this amazing sentence, in which I search in vain for the slightest trace of irony. Comrade Okanadov couldn't have said it better:
Pull up a chair snd listen instead of trying to feed your inductively reasoned agenda
wgdsr
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Re: Johns Hopkins 2022

Post by wgdsr »

brilliant.
10stone5
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Re: Johns Hopkins 2022

Post by 10stone5 »

Geez,
what would things be like here if the Jays had lost
to Syracuse ?
Catbird
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Re: Johns Hopkins 2022

Post by Catbird »

Basically the same?
51percentcorn
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Re: Johns Hopkins 2022

Post by 51percentcorn »

Friday will be interesting - the statistics through 7 games are very similar but given no common opponents much harder to draw conclusions. With G'town, UNC and UVA one would say Hopkins has played the tougher schedule to date.

I see a couple things to be thoughtful about if I were PM:
Navy - with just a slight edge in Face-off % to Hopkins (51-49 percent) averages 8 more ground balls per game. They also clear at 88% (though this is where the competition angle may enter into it)
Navy top leading point producers are listed as middies - Skalniak and Swanson and they are both big kids - hopefully the Hopkins defensive mid-field can keep them to a dull roar
Both teams are at 17/18 turnovers a game

Neither team has demonstrated a ton of scoring - so whatever team gets to more ground balls and employs better ball security is a likely winner
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HopFan16
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Re: Johns Hopkins 2022

Post by HopFan16 »

The schedules are so different as to render the statistical comparison basically meaningless. Had we played Manhattan, MSM, Hofstra, and Mercer instead of 3 ACC teams and Georgetown, our clearing numbers would be better, the FO% would be higher, and the number in the win column would be bigger.

That said, we have enough historical data/adjusted metrics about Navy teams to know a few things: They play solid defense and have continued to do so this year even after adjusting for their competition. They are big, athletic and physical and have a fairly good goaltender who saved 56% at Lehigh a few weeks ago. The Jays will not be taking them lightly.

Things will go poorly if they're looking ahead to Sunday against a good Delaware team. Last time we had a Friday/Sunday doubleheader, the Jays played well in their Friday night game (Sunday not so much) so I'm not too worried about them overlooking their opponent — but whenever you play two games in one weekend weird things can happen.

I caught a little bit of Navy's close win over Colgate and Skalniak immediately stood out. Have to pole him obviously and wouldn't be surprised to see Smith follow him around the field like he did with Cuse's Brendan Curry last weekend.
Last edited by HopFan16 on Thu Mar 17, 2022 9:42 am, edited 1 time in total.
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ohmilax34
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Re: Johns Hopkins 2022

Post by ohmilax34 »

51percentcorn wrote: Thu Mar 17, 2022 9:22 am Friday will be interesting - the statistics through 7 games are very similar but given no common opponents much harder to draw conclusions. With G'town, UNC and UVA one would say Hopkins has played the tougher schedule to date.

I see a couple things to be thoughtful about if I were PM:
Navy - with just a slight edge in Face-off % to Hopkins (51-49 percent) averages 8 more ground balls per game. They also clear at 88% (though this is where the competition angle may enter into it)
Navy top leading point producers are listed as middies - Skalniak and Swanson and they are both big kids - hopefully the Hopkins defensive mid-field can keep them to a dull roar
Both teams are at 17/18 turnovers a game

Neither team has demonstrated a ton of scoring - so whatever team gets to more ground balls and employs better ball security is a likely winner
I didn't see any of Navy's last game, but I saw Arline had a bunch of shots. I imagine he's only going to get better and make the team better.
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MDlaxfan76
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Re: Johns Hopkins 2022

Post by MDlaxfan76 »

10stone5 wrote: Thu Mar 17, 2022 8:18 am Geez,
what would things be like here if the Jays had lost
to Syracuse ?
:lol: :lol:
Catbird
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Re: Johns Hopkins 2022

Post by Catbird »

Two good teams staring us in the face this weekend, but both winnable games in which we should be favorites if the kids continue to improve and clean some things up from last week. If not it could be one or two long nights. Sunday probably a pick'em on the road in a second game of the weekend split. Ultimately I like this as it prepares the team well for the schedule of B1G tournament in May and maybe the Final Four if we can get back there some year.

Should be 70 and beautiful at gametime tomorrow night, hoping for a good crowd for a great local rivalry. Quint better get his hotdog order in early tomorrow.

A bunch of guys have gotten runs on the 2nd midfield line so far this season, hopefully should pay dividends down the line as the weather improves and Grimes returns.
jhu06
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Re: Johns Hopkins 2022

Post by jhu06 »

What we've learned about Hopkins thus far this year is that when teams play to a winning mid to late may standard -uva/unc/georgetown/towson in the third quarter, it gets ugly in a hurry and when they don't there's enough on this roster in terms of coaching and talent to win.

Narewski returning will help a lot in generating possessions, taking the pressure off the defense, giving dunn a break, helping the wings and enabling the offense to get into more of a rhythm. Navy sounds like a high floor low ceiling Patriot league team that at its best plays efficiently but won't blow your doors off.

For the quint haters looks like he's doing wrestling championships this week so not sure he'll be on the call.

I guess there was a d2 game at homewood this week. I don't know if that's new but cool that other schools want to use our venue for in season games.

Of the second midfield rotation raposo seems to have the most confidence right now week to week, evans flashed earlier this year. Not sure why mcdermott has not been able to build on last spring.
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HopFan16
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Re: Johns Hopkins 2022

Post by HopFan16 »

jhu06 wrote: Thu Mar 17, 2022 12:22 pm Not sure why mcdermott has not been able to build on last spring.
i know "noticing things" is not your strong suit but you are aware that he missed a game with an injury and has been playing, sparingly, with a knee brace since, right? right?

peshko was bumped up to the first line against cuse and that decision paid off in a big way. will be huge for his confidence moving forward

i will say: with the raposo/evans/mcdermott/bauer group providing very little lately, i think it's time they give someone like phillips a chance
jhu06
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Re: Johns Hopkins 2022

Post by jhu06 »

HopFan16 wrote: Thu Mar 17, 2022 12:34 pm
jhu06 wrote: Thu Mar 17, 2022 12:22 pm Not sure why mcdermott has not been able to build on last spring.
i know "noticing things" is not your strong suit but you are aware that he missed a game with an injury and has been playing, sparingly, with a knee brace since, right? right?

peshko was bumped up to the first line against cuse and that decision paid off in a big way. will be huge for his confidence moving forward

i will say: with the raposo/evans/mcdermott/bauer group providing very little lately, i think it's time they give someone like phillips a chance
I'm not personally privy to team insider injury reports of second midfielders.
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HopFan16
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Re: Johns Hopkins 2022

Post by HopFan16 »

jhu06 wrote: Thu Mar 17, 2022 1:50 pm
HopFan16 wrote: Thu Mar 17, 2022 12:34 pm
jhu06 wrote: Thu Mar 17, 2022 12:22 pm Not sure why mcdermott has not been able to build on last spring.
i know "noticing things" is not your strong suit but you are aware that he missed a game with an injury and has been playing, sparingly, with a knee brace since, right? right?

peshko was bumped up to the first line against cuse and that decision paid off in a big way. will be huge for his confidence moving forward

i will say: with the raposo/evans/mcdermott/bauer group providing very little lately, i think it's time they give someone like phillips a chance
I'm not personally privy to team insider injury reports of second midfielders.
it's not an "insider report" — he didn't play against loyola and since he's returned he's been wearing a knee brace which is visible to anyone with functioning eyes
a fan
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Re: Johns Hopkins 2022

Post by a fan »

wgdsr wrote: Thu Mar 17, 2022 7:53 ambrilliant.
....enjoying some lacrosse talk with coffee, and, boom, out of nowhere.....Brezhnev and tank columns.

Yes. Brilliant.
jhu06
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Re: Johns Hopkins 2022

Post by jhu06 »

notes have blake rodgers added at lsm. No narewski or fernandez. I thought bauer was running w/the 2 mids but they have him at attack still.

Delaware (high scoring offense) navy (strong defense) two different game plans I guess we'll see but both know how to manage the ball either with faceoffs (navy) or clearing and not giving it away (delaware). I'm sure the staff learned a lot about the conditioning of many players particularly the poles, ssdms, and dunn in the georgetown/towson weekend so we'll see how that plays out as well.

https://hopkinssports.com/news/2022/3/1 ... notes.aspx
DocBarrister
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Mid-Season Status

Post by DocBarrister »

From what I have seen, the Blue Jays still have a lot of upside.

They have displayed talent and skill in just about every area of the game, but not consistently, and they have never put together a complete game.

We have seen occasional glimpses of something resembling an efficient motion offense.

A competent on-ball and off-ball defense, capable of physical play and causing turnovers, has been seen from time to time.

Tyler Dunn in some games was dominant at the faceoff x. We haven’t even seen Narewski yet.

Kirson looked mediocre earlier in the season, but has been spectacular the last few games.

Even clears have sometimes seemed adequate (North Carolina), but can be described generously as a work in progress.

The Blue Jays have some depth at every position.

Bottom line … the pieces and potential are there. If the Blue Jays can consistently put together a relatively complete game, they will be hard to beat.

I still think there is an outside shot at a 10-4 regular season record.

DocBarrister
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HopFan16
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Re: Mid-Season Status

Post by HopFan16 »

DocBarrister wrote: Thu Mar 17, 2022 6:47 pm I still think there is an outside shot at a 10-4 regular season record.

DocBarrister
welp you can kiss the season goodbye

you've posted something like this at multiple points in every season dating back a decade+ on laxpower and seemingly every time you do we immediately lose by 15
51percentcorn
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Re: Johns Hopkins 2022

Post by 51percentcorn »

HopFan16 wrote: Thu Mar 17, 2022 7:24 pm decade+ on laxpower
definitely the + I distinctly recall our beloved poster maintaining Hopkins had the talent to win the national championship in 2009 right up to and beyond sustaining the worst playoff loss in history to date. Does what he always does - shrugs and says - well they didn't put it together. There seems to be no correlation with talent and "putting it together".
DocBarrister wrote: Thu Mar 17, 2022 6:47 pm Bottom line … the pieces and potential are there. If the Blue Jays can consistently put together a relatively complete game, they will be hard to beat.
Not for UVA
DocBarrister
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Re: Mid-Season Status

Post by DocBarrister »

HopFan16 wrote: Thu Mar 17, 2022 7:24 pm
DocBarrister wrote: Thu Mar 17, 2022 6:47 pm I still think there is an outside shot at a 10-4 regular season record.

DocBarrister
welp you can kiss the season goodbye

you've posted something like this at multiple points in every season dating back a decade+ on laxpower and seemingly every time you do we immediately lose by 15
I’m rational and my statements are based on objective observations and visually verifiable facts.

In contrast, you pay homage to luck and superstition.

I’m a complex algorithm … you are a wooden toothpick that ancient Romans used to remove remnants of fish sauce from their teeth.

I hope that sets the record straight.

DocBarrister 8-)
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HopFan16
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Re: Mid-Season Status

Post by HopFan16 »

DocBarrister wrote: Thu Mar 17, 2022 7:47 pm
HopFan16 wrote: Thu Mar 17, 2022 7:24 pm
DocBarrister wrote: Thu Mar 17, 2022 6:47 pm I still think there is an outside shot at a 10-4 regular season record.

DocBarrister
welp you can kiss the season goodbye

you've posted something like this at multiple points in every season dating back a decade+ on laxpower and seemingly every time you do we immediately lose by 15
I’m rational and my statements are based on objective observations and visually verifiable facts.

In contrast, you pay homage to luck and superstition.

I’m a complex algorithm … you are a wooden toothpick that ancient Romans used to remove remnants of fish sauce from their teeth.

I hope that sets the record straight.

DocBarrister 8-)
superstition is empirically a lot more accurate than your prognostications
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