LaxPower Back-Up Stick

Bart wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:33 pm

DocBarrister wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:10 pm

6ftstick wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:07 pm

DocBarrister wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 11:56 am The United States is on pace to surpass 100,000 confirmed cases later today.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

DocBarrister

Half of them in NYC. Could this be the reason.

Sunday, February 2, 2020
CHINATOWN, Manhattan (WABC) -- Despite increasing fears of coronavirus in New York City, the Chinatown Lunar New Year Parade and Festival will go on as scheduled next week.

The parade is scheduled for Feb. 9 at 1 p.m.

Democrat Elected officials are urging the public to take normal precautions against illness, but not to let fears concerning coronavirus stop them from participating in the event.

"I am here along with other elected officials to show support for Chinatown and for the Chinese community all across New York City, and we have heard reports that many businesses in Chinatown and in Flushing and in Sunset Park and in other parts of the city have seen a downturn in business since this news came out and this is really an important time of year because of Lunar New Year, a lot of these businesses count on an increase of business during Lunar New Year, and so we want to assure the public that we have the greatest health department in the world," NYC Council Speaker Corey Johnson said.

Democrat NYC Health Commissioner Oxiris Barbot:
✔
@NYCHealthCommr
Today our city is celebrating the #LunarNewYear parade in Chinatown, a beautiful cultural tradition with a rich history in our city. I want to remind everyone to enjoy the parade and not change any plans due to misinformation spreading about #coronavirus. https://on.nyc.gov/377LlcH

So woke!

Button up that shirt.

Your racism is showing again.

DocBarrister

Call me a skeptic on this. Looking past the woke comment.........I did not see it as racist at all. MatnumPI put an article regarding potential for the outbreak in Italy and Spain to be the result of a soccer match. Huge number of people in a small confined space. Add to that the fact that NYC has the most dense population in the United States and don't you think that mabee.........just a little bit there could be something to this?

DocBarrister wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:50 pm

Bart wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:33 pm

DocBarrister wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:10 pm

6ftstick wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:07 pm

DocBarrister wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 11:56 am The United States is on pace to surpass 100,000 confirmed cases later today.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

DocBarrister

Half of them in NYC. Could this be the reason.

Sunday, February 2, 2020
CHINATOWN, Manhattan (WABC) -- Despite increasing fears of coronavirus in New York City, the Chinatown Lunar New Year Parade and Festival will go on as scheduled next week.

The parade is scheduled for Feb. 9 at 1 p.m.

Democrat Elected officials are urging the public to take normal precautions against illness, but not to let fears concerning coronavirus stop them from participating in the event.

"I am here along with other elected officials to show support for Chinatown and for the Chinese community all across New York City, and we have heard reports that many businesses in Chinatown and in Flushing and in Sunset Park and in other parts of the city have seen a downturn in business since this news came out and this is really an important time of year because of Lunar New Year, a lot of these businesses count on an increase of business during Lunar New Year, and so we want to assure the public that we have the greatest health department in the world," NYC Council Speaker Corey Johnson said.

Democrat NYC Health Commissioner Oxiris Barbot:
✔
@NYCHealthCommr
Today our city is celebrating the #LunarNewYear parade in Chinatown, a beautiful cultural tradition with a rich history in our city. I want to remind everyone to enjoy the parade and not change any plans due to misinformation spreading about #coronavirus. https://on.nyc.gov/377LlcH

So woke!

Button up that shirt.

Your racism is showing again.

DocBarrister

Call me a skeptic on this. Looking past the woke comment.........I did not see it as racist at all. MatnumPI put an article regarding potential for the outbreak in Italy and Spain to be the result of a soccer match. Huge number of people in a small confined space. Add to that the fact that NYC has the most dense population in the United States and don't you think that mabee.........just a little bit there could be something to this?

But there were countless mass events in New York. Why focus on a Chinese event? Why not an Italian source? What about basketball games?

It’s a knee-jerk focus on the Chinese, which is part of the problem ... an unjust blaming of Asian AMERICANS, who did not start this pandemic.

Seriously, the tone deafness here needs to stop. Begin by changing the name of this thread, which was changed when Trump started his latest xenophobic and racist campaign.

DocBarrister

MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 10:07 am

Bart wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 10:05 am

Bart wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 10:02 am

RedFromMI wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 9:53 am

MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 9:37 am

Matnum PI wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 8:56 am

youthathletics wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 8:44 am Your quoting of my response without the reference video is not cool. You have once again, played judge, jury, and shot the messenger. The entire point of the video reference, was to discuss REAL DATA and MODELS from the UK that have significantly changed their projected outcomes. Why you continually want to find fault in everything befuddles me.

People already saw it and can see it again by scrolling up. we don't need exact quotes of posts, especially multiple posts. Just reminders.

Thanks.

That was indeed my intent youth.
No need to copy everything again and again.

But thanks for posting.
Not sure what aspect of my post was not appropriately responsive, much less "shot the messenger" if you mean you, youth. Certainly not intended.

I do think she was quite misleading or actually out of touch on the statement about beds and vents. Not sure which, or why.

On the second, I just pointed out the nuance of her statement as to timing and the reality of what she's saying. IE It won't that bad because we're actually doing something to prevent it.

But the conclusion shouldn't be to not worry about the challenge, but rather to stay the course.

I did take a 'shot' at anyone who mis-reads this to think the CV-19 should just be treated like another flu, just grind through it. There have been some rather stupid posts to that effect and I did challenge that ridiculous position...I haven't read you as being amongst that crowd, youth.

Hope you aren't.

How about this: (Twitter last night)


Marc Lipsitch

@mlipsitch

Infectious disease epidemiologist and microbiologist, aspirational barista. [email protected] Director @CCDD_HSPH

Boston, MA · hsph.harvard.edu/faculty/marc-l…

Tonight #DeborahBirx stated that models anticipating large-scale transmission of COVID-19 do not match reality on the ground. Our modeling (done by @StephenKissler based on work with @ctedijanto and @yhgrad and me) is one of the models she is talking about.

We received a request to model dozens of scenarios from the US government at 5pm on Tuesday. We responded to many of these on Wednesday evening, thanks to fast and careful work by @StephenKissler. This was done in good faith in order to help support the USG response.

Modeling the scenario of intense social distancing for a temporary period, followed by a letup, produces predictions of resurgent transmission and large epidemics, with the exact consequences depending on the degree and duration of reduced transmission during social distancing.

Dr. Birx's statements today https://t.co/AAff8ThmuF indicated that "when people start talking about 20% of a population getting infected, it's very scary, but we don't have data that matches that based on our experience."

True. We are near the beginning of the epidemic, with most people still susceptible. China and Korea have suppressed transmission by massive testing, combined in China with far more intense distancing than here and in Korea with significant distancing https://t.co/3xLNnFuGG7

If our social distancing works it is possible we will not just flatten the curve, but get a decline in cases. Under a best-case scenario, we will keep that policy in place long enough to get down to very, very few cases domestically.

If at the same time we ramp up testing capacity and the ability to trace contacts, in a very best-case scenario, we might conceivably be able to turn to a Korea- or Singapore-style mix of less intense distancing combined with super-intense contact tracing, isolation, quarantine

That will not be easy with this virus as our @CCDD_HSPH analysis has shown https://t.co/xmC114peJW but as some (mainly island) countries have shown, it may be just possible. We should do everything we can to reach for this goal, even if it is unattainable.

But here's why it is a best-case, likely unattainable scenario. 1) We have not proven that US-style social distancing can produce R_effective<1 (declining case numbers). On this I'm hopeful, but it's a hope not a fact.

2) we remain woefully behind on testing capacity, especially in many parts of the country. Like a forest fire, intense control in one place fails if there are sparks from other places. We must strengthen the weak links. But test reagents, swabs, PPE remain in short supply.

Solving the testing problems will not be easy, despite heroic local and state efforts to make up for the feckless federal efforts on this front. Supply chains are delicate and it may not be possible to come from behind and establish Korea-level testing capacity.

3) We have never accomplished contact tracing on the scale that will be necessary -- and again, to keep cases low, we will have to accomplish that everywhere, not just some places.

4) If we manage all of that, there will still be a world of COVID-19 transmission throwing sparks back at us. Like China today reuters.com/article/us-hea… we will be in a long-term effort to prevent these sparks from starting new chains of transmission.

The sparks from abroad won't be stopped by detection at the border; we don't do that too well as we showed empirically https://t.co/2N3skKoK22 and others @cmmid_lshtm showed theoretically https://t.co/2K6c3DoUXS

So the scenario Dr. Birx is "assuring" us about is one in which we somehow escape Italy's problem of overloaded healthcare system despite the fact that social distancing is not really happening in large parts of the US https://t.co/aNnoduaR3O

That is unlikely. Then the rosy scenario assumes we get to minimal numbers of cases everywhere, develop and maintain testing and tracing capacity, execute well on it, don't miss imported cases that spark new chains of transmission, and somehow maintain this delicate balance...

For the 12-18 months (best case under current models) till a vaccine. I desperately hope she is right, because much suffering will be avoided. But reassurance that this is likely, or even plausible, with the disorganized track record of the US response, is false reassurance.

We should work our hardest to create the conditions to make the scenarios being described here (one bad wave, contained by social distancing, and we're down to a point of controllable spread) a reality. Doing so will make us better prepared, even if they don't come to pass.

But it would be extremely naive to imagine that they are likely, and what do I know, but it seems like bad politics to "assure" the American people that they will come to pass when so many things could go wrong, any one of which leads to much worse outcomes.

On a simpler level, saying that "facts on the ground" are not consistent with 20% of the population getting infected is really quite deceptive. Likely, no population has 20% yet infected (though we can't be completely sure until serologic testing is widespread).

But this virus has shown in countries around the world that it can spread rapidly, and a small problem can become a big problem -- that is how exponential growth works.

It is a fundamental scientific error to take the current success of containment in some places as a sign that permanent containment is possible. We should work to make it possible, but 1918 flu and, frankly, the germ theory of disease show that containment is a temporary victory

From an expert, but my bolding...

Thanks, that is interesting indeed. This is if there is no seasonality to the virus, no evidence there is or isn't at this point.

seasonality (sunlight not heat) would indeed help some slow down, potentially enough to catch up with testing, tracing capacity...but only if we recognize that the fall will be coming very soon and prepare feverishly. Apparently that's what happened in the 1918 bug, the fall was much worse than the original outbreak.

wgdsr wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:15 pm

DocBarrister wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:33 pm Looks like a single Republican moron from Kentucky (are those words redundant?), Rep. Thomas Massie, is refusing to back a voice vote on the rescue package, forcing the entire House to scramble back to Washington, DC. This could delay passage by a day or two.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congre ... l-n1170051

DocBarrister

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/25/politics ... index.html

aoc maybe gave him the idea.
you're old enough, doc, our politicians aren't out there to protect or advance our nterests.
it is a cesspool and shows no signs of letting up. even as they will all likely claim their lever here is all about them being bipartisan and magnanimous for we the people.

DocBarrister wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:50 pm

Bart wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:33 pm

DocBarrister wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:10 pm

6ftstick wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:07 pm

DocBarrister wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 11:56 am The United States is on pace to surpass 100,000 confirmed cases later today.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

DocBarrister

Half of them in NYC. Could this be the reason.

Sunday, February 2, 2020
CHINATOWN, Manhattan (WABC) -- Despite increasing fears of coronavirus in New York City, the Chinatown Lunar New Year Parade and Festival will go on as scheduled next week.

The parade is scheduled for Feb. 9 at 1 p.m.

Democrat Elected officials are urging the public to take normal precautions against illness, but not to let fears concerning coronavirus stop them from participating in the event.

"I am here along with other elected officials to show support for Chinatown and for the Chinese community all across New York City, and we have heard reports that many businesses in Chinatown and in Flushing and in Sunset Park and in other parts of the city have seen a downturn in business since this news came out and this is really an important time of year because of Lunar New Year, a lot of these businesses count on an increase of business during Lunar New Year, and so we want to assure the public that we have the greatest health department in the world," NYC Council Speaker Corey Johnson said.

Democrat NYC Health Commissioner Oxiris Barbot:
✔
@NYCHealthCommr
Today our city is celebrating the #LunarNewYear parade in Chinatown, a beautiful cultural tradition with a rich history in our city. I want to remind everyone to enjoy the parade and not change any plans due to misinformation spreading about #coronavirus. https://on.nyc.gov/377LlcH

So woke!

Button up that shirt.

Your racism is showing again.

DocBarrister

Call me a skeptic on this. Looking past the woke comment.........I did not see it as racist at all. MatnumPI put an article regarding potential for the outbreak in Italy and Spain to be the result of a soccer match. Huge number of people in a small confined space. Add to that the fact that NYC has the most dense population in the United States and don't you think that mabee.........just a little bit there could be something to this?

But there were countless mass events in New York. Why focus on a Chinese event? Why not an Italian source? What about basketball games?

It’s a knee-jerk focus on the Chinese, which is part of the problem ... an unjust blaming of Asian AMERICANS, who did not start this pandemic.

Seriously, the tone deafness here needs to stop. Begin by changing the name of this thread, which was changed to include “Chinese” when Trump started his latest xenophobic and racist campaign.

DocBarrister

jhu72 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:57 pm

MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 10:07 am

Bart wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 10:05 am

Bart wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 10:02 am

RedFromMI wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 9:53 am

MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 9:37 am

Matnum PI wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 8:56 am

youthathletics wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 8:44 am Your quoting of my response without the reference video is not cool. You have once again, played judge, jury, and shot the messenger. The entire point of the video reference, was to discuss REAL DATA and MODELS from the UK that have significantly changed their projected outcomes. Why you continually want to find fault in everything befuddles me.

People already saw it and can see it again by scrolling up. we don't need exact quotes of posts, especially multiple posts. Just reminders.

Thanks.

That was indeed my intent youth.
No need to copy everything again and again.

But thanks for posting.
Not sure what aspect of my post was not appropriately responsive, much less "shot the messenger" if you mean you, youth. Certainly not intended.

I do think she was quite misleading or actually out of touch on the statement about beds and vents. Not sure which, or why.

On the second, I just pointed out the nuance of her statement as to timing and the reality of what she's saying. IE It won't that bad because we're actually doing something to prevent it.

But the conclusion shouldn't be to not worry about the challenge, but rather to stay the course.

I did take a 'shot' at anyone who mis-reads this to think the CV-19 should just be treated like another flu, just grind through it. There have been some rather stupid posts to that effect and I did challenge that ridiculous position...I haven't read you as being amongst that crowd, youth.

Hope you aren't.

How about this: (Twitter last night)


Marc Lipsitch

@mlipsitch

Infectious disease epidemiologist and microbiologist, aspirational barista. [email protected] Director @CCDD_HSPH

Boston, MA · hsph.harvard.edu/faculty/marc-l…

Tonight #DeborahBirx stated that models anticipating large-scale transmission of COVID-19 do not match reality on the ground. Our modeling (done by @StephenKissler based on work with @ctedijanto and @yhgrad and me) is one of the models she is talking about.

We received a request to model dozens of scenarios from the US government at 5pm on Tuesday. We responded to many of these on Wednesday evening, thanks to fast and careful work by @StephenKissler. This was done in good faith in order to help support the USG response.

Modeling the scenario of intense social distancing for a temporary period, followed by a letup, produces predictions of resurgent transmission and large epidemics, with the exact consequences depending on the degree and duration of reduced transmission during social distancing.

Dr. Birx's statements today https://t.co/AAff8ThmuF indicated that "when people start talking about 20% of a population getting infected, it's very scary, but we don't have data that matches that based on our experience."

True. We are near the beginning of the epidemic, with most people still susceptible. China and Korea have suppressed transmission by massive testing, combined in China with far more intense distancing than here and in Korea with significant distancing https://t.co/3xLNnFuGG7

If our social distancing works it is possible we will not just flatten the curve, but get a decline in cases. Under a best-case scenario, we will keep that policy in place long enough to get down to very, very few cases domestically.

If at the same time we ramp up testing capacity and the ability to trace contacts, in a very best-case scenario, we might conceivably be able to turn to a Korea- or Singapore-style mix of less intense distancing combined with super-intense contact tracing, isolation, quarantine

That will not be easy with this virus as our @CCDD_HSPH analysis has shown https://t.co/xmC114peJW but as some (mainly island) countries have shown, it may be just possible. We should do everything we can to reach for this goal, even if it is unattainable.

But here's why it is a best-case, likely unattainable scenario. 1) We have not proven that US-style social distancing can produce R_effective<1 (declining case numbers). On this I'm hopeful, but it's a hope not a fact.

2) we remain woefully behind on testing capacity, especially in many parts of the country. Like a forest fire, intense control in one place fails if there are sparks from other places. We must strengthen the weak links. But test reagents, swabs, PPE remain in short supply.

Solving the testing problems will not be easy, despite heroic local and state efforts to make up for the feckless federal efforts on this front. Supply chains are delicate and it may not be possible to come from behind and establish Korea-level testing capacity.

3) We have never accomplished contact tracing on the scale that will be necessary -- and again, to keep cases low, we will have to accomplish that everywhere, not just some places.

4) If we manage all of that, there will still be a world of COVID-19 transmission throwing sparks back at us. Like China today reuters.com/article/us-hea… we will be in a long-term effort to prevent these sparks from starting new chains of transmission.

The sparks from abroad won't be stopped by detection at the border; we don't do that too well as we showed empirically https://t.co/2N3skKoK22 and others @cmmid_lshtm showed theoretically https://t.co/2K6c3DoUXS

So the scenario Dr. Birx is "assuring" us about is one in which we somehow escape Italy's problem of overloaded healthcare system despite the fact that social distancing is not really happening in large parts of the US https://t.co/aNnoduaR3O

That is unlikely. Then the rosy scenario assumes we get to minimal numbers of cases everywhere, develop and maintain testing and tracing capacity, execute well on it, don't miss imported cases that spark new chains of transmission, and somehow maintain this delicate balance...

For the 12-18 months (best case under current models) till a vaccine. I desperately hope she is right, because much suffering will be avoided. But reassurance that this is likely, or even plausible, with the disorganized track record of the US response, is false reassurance.

We should work our hardest to create the conditions to make the scenarios being described here (one bad wave, contained by social distancing, and we're down to a point of controllable spread) a reality. Doing so will make us better prepared, even if they don't come to pass.

But it would be extremely naive to imagine that they are likely, and what do I know, but it seems like bad politics to "assure" the American people that they will come to pass when so many things could go wrong, any one of which leads to much worse outcomes.

On a simpler level, saying that "facts on the ground" are not consistent with 20% of the population getting infected is really quite deceptive. Likely, no population has 20% yet infected (though we can't be completely sure until serologic testing is widespread).

But this virus has shown in countries around the world that it can spread rapidly, and a small problem can become a big problem -- that is how exponential growth works.

It is a fundamental scientific error to take the current success of containment in some places as a sign that permanent containment is possible. We should work to make it possible, but 1918 flu and, frankly, the germ theory of disease show that containment is a temporary victory

From an expert, but my bolding...

Thanks, that is interesting indeed. This is if there is no seasonality to the virus, no evidence there is or isn't at this point.

seasonality (sunlight not heat) would indeed help some slow down, potentially enough to catch up with testing, tracing capacity...but only if we recognize that the fall will be coming very soon and prepare feverishly. Apparently that's what happened in the 1918 bug, the fall was much worse than the original outbreak.

Over 600,000 deaths in a couple months in the fall of 1918. People though they had it beat in the spring, early summer (wave). They were wrong. Scaling for today's population, that would be slightly under 2 million dead in a couple months. Except we know this virus is more transmissible.

DocBarrister wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:59 pm

wgdsr wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:15 pm

DocBarrister wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:33 pm Looks like a single Republican moron from Kentucky (are those words redundant?), Rep. Thomas Massie, is refusing to back a voice vote on the rescue package, forcing the entire House to scramble back to Washington, DC. This could delay passage by a day or two.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congre ... l-n1170051

DocBarrister

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/25/politics ... index.html

aoc maybe gave him the idea.
you're old enough, doc, our politicians aren't out there to protect or advance our nterests.
it is a cesspool and shows no signs of letting up. even as they will all likely claim their lever here is all about them being bipartisan and magnanimous for we the people.

AOC came out in support of the bill.

It’s pretty much all on Massie. Even Trump thinks Massie is an idiot

DocBarrister

ChairmanOfTheBoard wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 1:10 pm time for a comic interlude: https://www.upi.com/Odd_News/2020/03/26 ... 585247357/

Bart wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:54 pm

DocBarrister wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:50 pm

Bart wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:33 pm

DocBarrister wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:10 pm

6ftstick wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:07 pm

DocBarrister wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 11:56 am The United States is on pace to surpass 100,000 confirmed cases later today.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

DocBarrister

Half of them in NYC. Could this be the reason.

Sunday, February 2, 2020
CHINATOWN, Manhattan (WABC) -- Despite increasing fears of coronavirus in New York City, the Chinatown Lunar New Year Parade and Festival will go on as scheduled next week.

The parade is scheduled for Feb. 9 at 1 p.m.

Democrat Elected officials are urging the public to take normal precautions against illness, but not to let fears concerning coronavirus stop them from participating in the event.

"I am here along with other elected officials to show support for Chinatown and for the Chinese community all across New York City, and we have heard reports that many businesses in Chinatown and in Flushing and in Sunset Park and in other parts of the city have seen a downturn in business since this news came out and this is really an important time of year because of Lunar New Year, a lot of these businesses count on an increase of business during Lunar New Year, and so we want to assure the public that we have the greatest health department in the world," NYC Council Speaker Corey Johnson said.

Democrat NYC Health Commissioner Oxiris Barbot:
✔
@NYCHealthCommr
Today our city is celebrating the #LunarNewYear parade in Chinatown, a beautiful cultural tradition with a rich history in our city. I want to remind everyone to enjoy the parade and not change any plans due to misinformation spreading about #coronavirus. https://on.nyc.gov/377LlcH

So woke!

Button up that shirt.

Your racism is showing again.

DocBarrister

Call me a skeptic on this. Looking past the woke comment.........I did not see it as racist at all. MatnumPI put an article regarding potential for the outbreak in Italy and Spain to be the result of a soccer match. Huge number of people in a small confined space. Add to that the fact that NYC has the most dense population in the United States and don't you think that mabee.........just a little bit there could be something to this?

But there were countless mass events in New York. Why focus on a Chinese event? Why not an Italian source? What about basketball games?

It’s a knee-jerk focus on the Chinese, which is part of the problem ... an unjust blaming of Asian AMERICANS, who did not start this pandemic.

Seriously, the tone deafness here needs to stop. Begin by changing the name of this thread, which was changed when Trump started his latest xenophobic and racist campaign.

DocBarrister

Is there a quote from the NYC commissioner of health saying those type of event should go on? Are they on the same scale? What you perceive to be a knee-jerk response I see as an interesting opening point for further look into the data.

Bart wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 1:02 pm

jhu72 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:57 pm

MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 10:07 am

Bart wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 10:05 am

Bart wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 10:02 am

RedFromMI wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 9:53 am

MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 9:37 am

Matnum PI wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 8:56 am

youthathletics wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 8:44 am Your quoting of my response without the reference video is not cool. You have once again, played judge, jury, and shot the messenger. The entire point of the video reference, was to discuss REAL DATA and MODELS from the UK that have significantly changed their projected outcomes. Why you continually want to find fault in everything befuddles me.

People already saw it and can see it again by scrolling up. we don't need exact quotes of posts, especially multiple posts. Just reminders.

Thanks.

That was indeed my intent youth.
No need to copy everything again and again.

But thanks for posting.
Not sure what aspect of my post was not appropriately responsive, much less "shot the messenger" if you mean you, youth. Certainly not intended.

I do think she was quite misleading or actually out of touch on the statement about beds and vents. Not sure which, or why.

On the second, I just pointed out the nuance of her statement as to timing and the reality of what she's saying. IE It won't that bad because we're actually doing something to prevent it.

But the conclusion shouldn't be to not worry about the challenge, but rather to stay the course.

I did take a 'shot' at anyone who mis-reads this to think the CV-19 should just be treated like another flu, just grind through it. There have been some rather stupid posts to that effect and I did challenge that ridiculous position...I haven't read you as being amongst that crowd, youth.

Hope you aren't.

How about this: (Twitter last night)


Marc Lipsitch

@mlipsitch

Infectious disease epidemiologist and microbiologist, aspirational barista. [email protected] Director @CCDD_HSPH

Boston, MA · hsph.harvard.edu/faculty/marc-l…

Tonight #DeborahBirx stated that models anticipating large-scale transmission of COVID-19 do not match reality on the ground. Our modeling (done by @StephenKissler based on work with @ctedijanto and @yhgrad and me) is one of the models she is talking about.

We received a request to model dozens of scenarios from the US government at 5pm on Tuesday. We responded to many of these on Wednesday evening, thanks to fast and careful work by @StephenKissler. This was done in good faith in order to help support the USG response.

Modeling the scenario of intense social distancing for a temporary period, followed by a letup, produces predictions of resurgent transmission and large epidemics, with the exact consequences depending on the degree and duration of reduced transmission during social distancing.

Dr. Birx's statements today https://t.co/AAff8ThmuF indicated that "when people start talking about 20% of a population getting infected, it's very scary, but we don't have data that matches that based on our experience."

True. We are near the beginning of the epidemic, with most people still susceptible. China and Korea have suppressed transmission by massive testing, combined in China with far more intense distancing than here and in Korea with significant distancing https://t.co/3xLNnFuGG7

If our social distancing works it is possible we will not just flatten the curve, but get a decline in cases. Under a best-case scenario, we will keep that policy in place long enough to get down to very, very few cases domestically.

If at the same time we ramp up testing capacity and the ability to trace contacts, in a very best-case scenario, we might conceivably be able to turn to a Korea- or Singapore-style mix of less intense distancing combined with super-intense contact tracing, isolation, quarantine

That will not be easy with this virus as our @CCDD_HSPH analysis has shown https://t.co/xmC114peJW but as some (mainly island) countries have shown, it may be just possible. We should do everything we can to reach for this goal, even if it is unattainable.

But here's why it is a best-case, likely unattainable scenario. 1) We have not proven that US-style social distancing can produce R_effective<1 (declining case numbers). On this I'm hopeful, but it's a hope not a fact.

2) we remain woefully behind on testing capacity, especially in many parts of the country. Like a forest fire, intense control in one place fails if there are sparks from other places. We must strengthen the weak links. But test reagents, swabs, PPE remain in short supply.

Solving the testing problems will not be easy, despite heroic local and state efforts to make up for the feckless federal efforts on this front. Supply chains are delicate and it may not be possible to come from behind and establish Korea-level testing capacity.

3) We have never accomplished contact tracing on the scale that will be necessary -- and again, to keep cases low, we will have to accomplish that everywhere, not just some places.

4) If we manage all of that, there will still be a world of COVID-19 transmission throwing sparks back at us. Like China today reuters.com/article/us-hea… we will be in a long-term effort to prevent these sparks from starting new chains of transmission.

The sparks from abroad won't be stopped by detection at the border; we don't do that too well as we showed empirically https://t.co/2N3skKoK22 and others @cmmid_lshtm showed theoretically https://t.co/2K6c3DoUXS

So the scenario Dr. Birx is "assuring" us about is one in which we somehow escape Italy's problem of overloaded healthcare system despite the fact that social distancing is not really happening in large parts of the US https://t.co/aNnoduaR3O

That is unlikely. Then the rosy scenario assumes we get to minimal numbers of cases everywhere, develop and maintain testing and tracing capacity, execute well on it, don't miss imported cases that spark new chains of transmission, and somehow maintain this delicate balance...

For the 12-18 months (best case under current models) till a vaccine. I desperately hope she is right, because much suffering will be avoided. But reassurance that this is likely, or even plausible, with the disorganized track record of the US response, is false reassurance.

We should work our hardest to create the conditions to make the scenarios being described here (one bad wave, contained by social distancing, and we're down to a point of controllable spread) a reality. Doing so will make us better prepared, even if they don't come to pass.

But it would be extremely naive to imagine that they are likely, and what do I know, but it seems like bad politics to "assure" the American people that they will come to pass when so many things could go wrong, any one of which leads to much worse outcomes.

On a simpler level, saying that "facts on the ground" are not consistent with 20% of the population getting infected is really quite deceptive. Likely, no population has 20% yet infected (though we can't be completely sure until serologic testing is widespread).

But this virus has shown in countries around the world that it can spread rapidly, and a small problem can become a big problem -- that is how exponential growth works.

It is a fundamental scientific error to take the current success of containment in some places as a sign that permanent containment is possible. We should work to make it possible, but 1918 flu and, frankly, the germ theory of disease show that containment is a temporary victory

From an expert, but my bolding...

Thanks, that is interesting indeed. This is if there is no seasonality to the virus, no evidence there is or isn't at this point.

seasonality (sunlight not heat) would indeed help some slow down, potentially enough to catch up with testing, tracing capacity...but only if we recognize that the fall will be coming very soon and prepare feverishly. Apparently that's what happened in the 1918 bug, the fall was much worse than the original outbreak.

Over 600,000 deaths in a couple months in the fall of 1918. People though they had it beat in the spring, early summer (wave). They were wrong. Scaling for today's population, that would be slightly under 2 million dead in a couple months. Except we know this virus is more transmissible.

Absolutely true. It is also true both our knowledge of pandemics and our medical technology have increased no? Time will tell if our medical technology proves fruitful and if we learn our lessons from the past. From what Dr Fauci said in that interview at least he sees what will need to be done during the lull (if there is one). That begs the question is the nation will have the stomach for that if this thing does go away.

Bart wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 1:02 pm

jhu72 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:57 pm

MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 10:07 am

Bart wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 10:05 am

Bart wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 10:02 am

RedFromMI wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 9:53 am

MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 9:37 am

Matnum PI wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 8:56 am

youthathletics wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 8:44 am Your quoting of my response without the reference video is not cool. You have once again, played judge, jury, and shot the messenger. The entire point of the video reference, was to discuss REAL DATA and MODELS from the UK that have significantly changed their projected outcomes. Why you continually want to find fault in everything befuddles me.

People already saw it and can see it again by scrolling up. we don't need exact quotes of posts, especially multiple posts. Just reminders.

Thanks.

That was indeed my intent youth.
No need to copy everything again and again.

But thanks for posting.
Not sure what aspect of my post was not appropriately responsive, much less "shot the messenger" if you mean you, youth. Certainly not intended.

I do think she was quite misleading or actually out of touch on the statement about beds and vents. Not sure which, or why.

On the second, I just pointed out the nuance of her statement as to timing and the reality of what she's saying. IE It won't that bad because we're actually doing something to prevent it.

But the conclusion shouldn't be to not worry about the challenge, but rather to stay the course.

I did take a 'shot' at anyone who mis-reads this to think the CV-19 should just be treated like another flu, just grind through it. There have been some rather stupid posts to that effect and I did challenge that ridiculous position...I haven't read you as being amongst that crowd, youth.

Hope you aren't.

How about this: (Twitter last night)


Marc Lipsitch

@mlipsitch

Infectious disease epidemiologist and microbiologist, aspirational barista. [email protected] Director @CCDD_HSPH

Boston, MA · hsph.harvard.edu/faculty/marc-l…

Tonight #DeborahBirx stated that models anticipating large-scale transmission of COVID-19 do not match reality on the ground. Our modeling (done by @StephenKissler based on work with @ctedijanto and @yhgrad and me) is one of the models she is talking about.

We received a request to model dozens of scenarios from the US government at 5pm on Tuesday. We responded to many of these on Wednesday evening, thanks to fast and careful work by @StephenKissler. This was done in good faith in order to help support the USG response.

Modeling the scenario of intense social distancing for a temporary period, followed by a letup, produces predictions of resurgent transmission and large epidemics, with the exact consequences depending on the degree and duration of reduced transmission during social distancing.

Dr. Birx's statements today https://t.co/AAff8ThmuF indicated that "when people start talking about 20% of a population getting infected, it's very scary, but we don't have data that matches that based on our experience."

True. We are near the beginning of the epidemic, with most people still susceptible. China and Korea have suppressed transmission by massive testing, combined in China with far more intense distancing than here and in Korea with significant distancing https://t.co/3xLNnFuGG7

If our social distancing works it is possible we will not just flatten the curve, but get a decline in cases. Under a best-case scenario, we will keep that policy in place long enough to get down to very, very few cases domestically.

If at the same time we ramp up testing capacity and the ability to trace contacts, in a very best-case scenario, we might conceivably be able to turn to a Korea- or Singapore-style mix of less intense distancing combined with super-intense contact tracing, isolation, quarantine

That will not be easy with this virus as our @CCDD_HSPH analysis has shown https://t.co/xmC114peJW but as some (mainly island) countries have shown, it may be just possible. We should do everything we can to reach for this goal, even if it is unattainable.

But here's why it is a best-case, likely unattainable scenario. 1) We have not proven that US-style social distancing can produce R_effective<1 (declining case numbers). On this I'm hopeful, but it's a hope not a fact.

2) we remain woefully behind on testing capacity, especially in many parts of the country. Like a forest fire, intense control in one place fails if there are sparks from other places. We must strengthen the weak links. But test reagents, swabs, PPE remain in short supply.

Solving the testing problems will not be easy, despite heroic local and state efforts to make up for the feckless federal efforts on this front. Supply chains are delicate and it may not be possible to come from behind and establish Korea-level testing capacity.

3) We have never accomplished contact tracing on the scale that will be necessary -- and again, to keep cases low, we will have to accomplish that everywhere, not just some places.

4) If we manage all of that, there will still be a world of COVID-19 transmission throwing sparks back at us. Like China today reuters.com/article/us-hea… we will be in a long-term effort to prevent these sparks from starting new chains of transmission.

The sparks from abroad won't be stopped by detection at the border; we don't do that too well as we showed empirically https://t.co/2N3skKoK22 and others @cmmid_lshtm showed theoretically https://t.co/2K6c3DoUXS

So the scenario Dr. Birx is "assuring" us about is one in which we somehow escape Italy's problem of overloaded healthcare system despite the fact that social distancing is not really happening in large parts of the US https://t.co/aNnoduaR3O

That is unlikely. Then the rosy scenario assumes we get to minimal numbers of cases everywhere, develop and maintain testing and tracing capacity, execute well on it, don't miss imported cases that spark new chains of transmission, and somehow maintain this delicate balance...

For the 12-18 months (best case under current models) till a vaccine. I desperately hope she is right, because much suffering will be avoided. But reassurance that this is likely, or even plausible, with the disorganized track record of the US response, is false reassurance.

We should work our hardest to create the conditions to make the scenarios being described here (one bad wave, contained by social distancing, and we're down to a point of controllable spread) a reality. Doing so will make us better prepared, even if they don't come to pass.

But it would be extremely naive to imagine that they are likely, and what do I know, but it seems like bad politics to "assure" the American people that they will come to pass when so many things could go wrong, any one of which leads to much worse outcomes.

On a simpler level, saying that "facts on the ground" are not consistent with 20% of the population getting infected is really quite deceptive. Likely, no population has 20% yet infected (though we can't be completely sure until serologic testing is widespread).

But this virus has shown in countries around the world that it can spread rapidly, and a small problem can become a big problem -- that is how exponential growth works.

It is a fundamental scientific error to take the current success of containment in some places as a sign that permanent containment is possible. We should work to make it possible, but 1918 flu and, frankly, the germ theory of disease show that containment is a temporary victory

From an expert, but my bolding...

Thanks, that is interesting indeed. This is if there is no seasonality to the virus, no evidence there is or isn't at this point.

seasonality (sunlight not heat) would indeed help some slow down, potentially enough to catch up with testing, tracing capacity...but only if we recognize that the fall will be coming very soon and prepare feverishly. Apparently that's what happened in the 1918 bug, the fall was much worse than the original outbreak.

Over 600,000 deaths in a couple months in the fall of 1918. People though they had it beat in the spring, early summer (wave). They were wrong. Scaling for today's population, that would be slightly under 2 million dead in a couple months. Except we know this virus is more transmissible.

Absolutely true. It is also true both our knowledge of pandemics and our medical technology have increased no? Time will tell if our medical technology proves fruitful and if we learn our lessons from the past. From what Dr Fauci said in that interview at least he sees what will need to be done during the lull (if there is one). That begs the question is the nation will have the stomach for that if this thing does go away.

Trinity wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 1:21 pm Saw someone opine that the only way now to get the South to buy-in to shelter in place is to have the college football coaches explain that if that action doesn’t happen now, there will no be games this fall.

6ftstick wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 1:04 pm

DocBarrister wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:59 pm

wgdsr wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:15 pm

DocBarrister wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:33 pm Looks like a single Republican moron from Kentucky (are those words redundant?), Rep. Thomas Massie, is refusing to back a voice vote on the rescue package, forcing the entire House to scramble back to Washington, DC. This could delay passage by a day or two.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congre ... l-n1170051

DocBarrister

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/25/politics ... index.html

aoc maybe gave him the idea.
you're old enough, doc, our politicians aren't out there to protect or advance our nterests.
it is a cesspool and shows no signs of letting up. even as they will all likely claim their lever here is all about them being bipartisan and magnanimous for we the people.

AOC came out in support of the bill.

It’s pretty much all on Massie. Even Trump thinks Massie is an idiot

DocBarrister

AOC wanted checks to go to illegal immigrants. How xenophobic of me to bring that up.

Open borders are great in times like these.

DocBarrister wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 1:22 pm That probably reflects the insidious racist effect of calling coronavirus a “Chinese virus.”

jhu72 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 1:25 pm

Trinity wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 1:21 pm Saw someone opine that the only way now to get the South to buy-in to shelter in place is to have the college football coaches explain that if that action doesn’t happen now, there will no be games this fall.

Good one!

6ftstick wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 1:15 pm

ChairmanOfTheBoard wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 1:10 pm time for a comic interlude: https://www.upi.com/Odd_News/2020/03/26 ... 585247357/

Saw a funny one on Facebook this morning—

A guy was teleconferencing with 18 people. One dog started to bark. Then a second responde. a third etc.. till all dogs were barking.

Couldn't continue the meeting.

Matnum PI wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 1:31 pm

DocBarrister wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 1:22 pm That probably reflects the insidious racist effect of calling coronavirus a “Chinese virus.”

Some people need a scapegoat. Mexicans, inner-city blacks... Chinese. Life needs to be composed of us and thems. It's awful, simply disgusting. But, for some people, they seemingly cannot operate any other way.

Peter Brown wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 1:32 pm

jhu72 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 1:25 pm

Trinity wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 1:21 pm Saw someone opine that the only way now to get the South to buy-in to shelter in place is to have the college football coaches explain that if that action doesn’t happen now, there will no be games this fall.

Good one!

Bless your hearts.

(also, we are a hospitable land and we welcome Yankees but not the freeloading kind, so please keep your high taxes and nanny state-itis in those absolutely god-awful miserable states you leave behind...one of the reasons you move to us, and never the other way around, is because we still act like America in the South! You Dems can woke yourselves to death for all I care, just not down here lol!!!!)