Big Ten 2023

[44WeWantMore]

Maybe PM was waiting for a close game before he would ask the refs.

[keno in reno]

Maybe PM was waiting for a game where he didn't blow a 5-0 lead and have a shot clock violation on the final possession of regulation

[Wheels]

Anyone want to talk about what an even match-up looks like?

Maryland: 30th adjusted offense eff, 9th adjusted defense eff, 1st adjusted faceoff percent, 14th adjusted save percent

Rutgers: 28th adjusted offense eff, 9th adjusted defense eff, 17th adjusted faceoff percent, 23rd adjusted save percent

Add in that Rutgers plays better at home, and they should be considered the favorite this weekend.

[1766]

Anyone want to talk about what an even match-up looks like?

Maryland: 30th adjusted offense eff, 9th adjusted defense eff, 1st adjusted faceoff percent, 14th adjusted save percent

Rutgers: 28th adjusted offense eff, 9th adjusted defense eff, 17th adjusted faceoff percent, 23rd adjusted save percent

Add in that Rutgers plays better at home, and they should be considered the favorite this weekend.

It's a monkey the program needs to get off of it's back.

How about the Big Ten? What an exciting conference. It feels like anyone can win it and any one can come in last.

The tournament is going to be incredible.

[AreaLax]

[gymman1031]

Predictions for Rutgers @ Penn State, Ohio State @ Michigan, and Hopkins @ Maryland?

[Wheels]

Given everything Rutgers lost, it's not too surprising they took a step back this season. Given everything OSU brought back, especially on defense, it is surprising how bad they've been.

[Wheels]

Myers leaving Wahlund in there to get lit up. Maybe he needs to go yell at someone about gloves or something.

[Henpecked]

Given everything Rutgers lost, it's not too surprising they took a step back this season. Given everything OSU brought back, especially on defense, it is surprising how bad they've been.

Legit question, who has Rutgers beaten this year? Not a hater. Just asking. They’ve beaten 2 teams with winning records this year. Seriously, Is this a team that can get an at large?

[10stone5]

They weren’t exactly kicking it,

but yeah, that bad decision by Meyers had the reverse effect,
they’ve played deflated since then.

[10stone5]

Given everything Rutgers lost, it's not too surprising they took a step back this season. Given everything OSU brought back, especially on defense, it is surprising how bad they've been.

Legit question, who has Rutgers beaten this year? Not a hater. Just asking. They’ve beaten 2 teams with winning records this year. Seriously, Is this a team that can get an at large?

No,
they’re out.

[jhu06]

So after tonight
Penn State 1 or 2.
Maryland 1 or 3
Hopkins 2 or 3
Michigan 4
Ohio State 5
Rutgers 6

am I wrong?

[laxreference]

Given everything Rutgers lost, it's not too surprising they took a step back this season. Given everything OSU brought back, especially on defense, it is surprising how bad they've been.

Legit question, who has Rutgers beaten this year? Not a hater. Just asking. They’ve beaten 2 teams with winning records this year. Seriously, Is this a team that can get an at large?

Not saying they've got an amazing set of wins, but this time of year is all about comparison. Using the current RPI ranking of their opponents, Rutgers's wins collectively rank better than the wins of all these teams:

Denver
Villanova
UNC
Penn
Syracuse

They've got the 10th best set of wins, but the issue for them is that their set of losses rank 19th.

[AreaLax]

So after tonight
Penn State 1 or 2.
Maryland 1 or 3
Hopkins 2 or 3
Michigan 4
Ohio State 5
Rutgers 6

am I wrong?

Yup. Maryland wins tonight the are #1 seed, lose they are #3 seed

[wgdsr]

Given everything Rutgers lost, it's not too surprising they took a step back this season. Given everything OSU brought back, especially on defense, it is surprising how bad they've been.

Legit question, who has Rutgers beaten this year? Not a hater. Just asking. They’ve beaten 2 teams with winning records this year. Seriously, Is this a team that can get an at large?

Not saying they've got an amazing set of wins, but this time of year is all about comparison. Using the current RPI ranking of their opponents, Rutgers's wins collectively rank better than the wins of all these teams:

Denver
Villanova
UNC
Penn
Syracuse

They've got the 10th best set of wins, but the issue for them is that their set of losses rank 19th.

is that by average rpi? the committee often stresses which top wins (and losses), not average. for that, rutgers doesn't come out great.

then again, semi-new committee in '23, and we broke the straight rpi streak last year.

[laxreference]

Not saying they've got an amazing set of wins, but this time of year is all about comparison. Using the current RPI ranking of their opponents, Rutgers's wins collectively rank better than the wins of all these teams:

Denver
Villanova
UNC
Penn
Syracuse

They've got the 10th best set of wins, but the issue for them is that their set of losses rank 19th.

is that by average rpi? the committee often stresses which top wins (and losses), not average. for that, rutgers doesn't come out great.

then again, semi-new committee in '23, and we broke the straight rpi streak last year.

No, it's not average RPI. I look at every team's best win and assign points based on the opponent's RPI. Then every team's second best weight (although that receives less weight), and so on down to their least impressive wins, which barely add anything to their total.

So Denver's best win (Villanova) earns them 64 Strength-of-Record (SOR) points. Nova's best win (PSU) earns them 70 points. Rutgers best win (Princeton) earns them 61 points. So their best win doesn't match up against those teams, but when you look at the entirety of their list of wins, it's the best of this comparison group. This approach puts the most weight on your best victory, but doesn't discount the quality of the others.

( I also have the settings such that a team's wins are more important to their resume than their losses (personal preference on that one. )

RutgersExample.PNG (64.74 KiB) Viewed 492 times

[wgdsr]

Not saying they've got an amazing set of wins, but this time of year is all about comparison. Using the current RPI ranking of their opponents, Rutgers's wins collectively rank better than the wins of all these teams:

Denver
Villanova
UNC
Penn
Syracuse

They've got the 10th best set of wins, but the issue for them is that their set of losses rank 19th.

is that by average rpi? the committee often stresses which top wins (and losses), not average. for that, rutgers doesn't come out great.

then again, semi-new committee in '23, and we broke the straight rpi streak last year.

No, it's not average RPI. I look at every team's best win and assign points based on the opponent's RPI. Then every team's second best weight (although that receives less weight), and so on down to their least impressive wins, which barely add anything to their total.

So Denver's best win (Villanova) earns them 64 Strength-of-Record (SOR) points. Nova's best win (PSU) earns them 70 points. Rutgers best win (Princeton) earns them 61 points. So their best win doesn't match up against those teams, but when you look at the entirety of their list of wins, it's the best of this comparison group. This approach puts the most weight on your best victory, but doesn't discount the quality of the others.

( I also have the settings such that a team's wins are more important to their resume than their losses (personal preference on that one. )


RutgersExample.PNG

ok. are you projecting an outcome with your formula here, or just your preferred ranking?

[laxreference]

ok. are you projecting an outcome with your formula here, or just your preferred ranking?

If you are asking whether I'm projecting what the committee would do with these teams, not really. But this is basically the idea of tiers taken to the logical extension of using tier sizes of one team each, so it's not implausible that they could look at it this way.

I am also using a setting that weights victories more than losses, and there's no guarantee that they would use the same approach. And in fact, if you were to emphasize losses but the same amount that I had wins emphasized, these three teams would see their SOR flipped, with Rutgers coming in last.

You can play around with whatever setting you want here.

[wgdsr]

ok. are you projecting an outcome with your formula here, or just your preferred ranking?

If you are asking whether I'm projecting what the committee would do with these teams, not really. But this is basically the idea of tiers taken to the logical extension of using tier sizes of one team each, so it's not implausible that they could look at it this way.

I am also using a setting that weights victories more than losses, and there's no guarantee that they would use the same approach. And in fact, if you were to emphasize losses but the same amount that I had wins emphasized, these three teams would see their SOR flipped, with Rutgers coming in last.

You can play around with whatever setting you want here.

gotcha and thanks. question... why does your rpi have vermont dropping from ~15 to 23 during the week? laxnumbers still has them at 15.

[laxreference]

gotcha and thanks. question... why does your rpi have vermont dropping from ~15 to 23 during the week? laxnumbers still has them at 15.

Fixed. Thanks for pointing that out. Their game against BU was updated on the NCAA site a bit weird; didn't realize that would remove their result against the Terriers from their RPI calc.