Crime and Punishment

[MDlaxfan76]

Dark times here in America.
Chaos in the streets.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/10/us/us-vi ... index.html

Statistics are fun things to manipulate. I don't know of any Americans who feel safer in our country today.

Emotions are much easier to "manipulate".

Especially fear.

These are "statistics" gathered the same way over time by the most credible non-partisan group we have.
At different points in time, the numbers may indicate bad news just as they may indicate good news, all based on same fact gathering practices.

The trendlines are real. Sometimes good, sometimes bad.

However, the peddler's profit is in the fear. Beware the source who profits from fear. Examine whether they are peddling anecdotes to demonstrate a reason to be fearful and ignoring actual facts that belie their hyper fear mongering. That's likely on purpose.

Note the numbers don't indicate causal reasons for the trendline, that's where additional analysis of correlation and causation is necessary. And indeed, it's worth examining whether such analysis has an agenda and there may be other, more accurate analyses.

But these numbers are just reported as the best estimate available of factual reality, for better or worse.

I actually agree with you that people are more fearful right now about street crime than they have been in a couple of decades despite good factual reasons not to be, and especially in contrast with several earlier periods in our lifetime, much less earlier times. But I don't chalk up that fear to actual reality, rather it's a combination of our hyper media attention to "if it bleeds it leads" and the ubiquity of instantaneous awareness of various tragic events in a much wider radius, regardless of whether the actual incidence of such is going up versus down. We're simply more aware of more events.

And some of that media, heck all of that media, profits by drawing our attention...and some media and politicians specifically profit from the manipulation of our emotions, doing so quite intentionally and with no compunction about untruthful information.

So unless my memory fails me MD lax you live in such a secure home environment you don't even feel the need to lock your doors at night. It must be nice to have that sense of security that a rich Republican like you enjoys.

Yes, it's a heck of a lot safer where I live now than most of the places I lived the bulk of my life, especially my early adulthood.

The neighborhoods I lived in in Boston in the '80's, Cambridge then the South End, were way, way more dangerous in those years than they are today...same neighborhoods. The South End in particular was 'transitional' with our block being half boarded up shells of brownstones and everything north of us on Columbus Ave to Mass Ave and Roxbury beyond being 100% boarded up. Car broken into many times, house several times, purse snatch right in front of home walking back from dinner. That said, we enjoyed it a lot. Today it's entirely renovated and very safe, at least in comparison to that period.

There are, of course, also neighborhoods in various towns and cities that are less safe....but the number don't lie about the trendline to safer overall. And that's a very good thing.

[Farfromgeneva]

There was an interesting event last week at a local Big Lots Store near our house. A shop lifter in the process of leaving the store with his bag of goodies punched the assistant manager in the face. The manager, witnessing the assault called police and followed the bad actor into the parking lot. The police were unable to locate the individual. Two weeks later the manager was fired for violating Big Lots policy by calling the police without approval by his district manager. Big Lots policy is to not impede or interfere or confront any shop lifter. Even if that individual assaults one of your employees. If I was a shoplifter I would do all of my thieving at Big Lots. They are shoplifter friendly for sure. If you ask nicely they might even give you a bag to put your goodies in. It is quite the dilemma for Big Lots. They don't want to confront these people out of fear of them becoming violent. The down side is they are being shop lifted out of existence. These bad actors understand store policy and will happily take advantage of it. It has to be frustrating for any manager to just watch stolen merchandise walking out the door and all you can do is watch and then make a report to upper management. Who said crime doesn't pay because apparently it does.

FTR for what it is worth, I use to shop at this same Big Lots store fairly frequently. I didn't know the manager in question. I do know in the year or so he was the manager of that store he busted his ass and turned it from a chaotic mess into a well run and organized store. This Big Lots is a stones throw away from the Wegmans I shop at every week. The Wegman family has taken a different approach, if you try to walk out of their store with a bag full of stolen merchandise you will meet the asset protection people up close and personal. Why Big Lots has chosen this path to bankruptcy is painfully clear. They are more concerned about a violent and combative thief being injured and suing the crap out of them. The moral of the story is you can be a dedicated store manager who becomes nothing more than a scape goat for corporate America. How frustrating must it be for a store manager to watch his merchandise walking out the front door and all you can do is watch and shake your head. The thief assaulting one of your employees doesn't even change those dynamics. I call this the death of common sense. Whoever said crime doesn't pay should be the new CEO of Big Lots. BTW, I will never shop at Big Lots again not like they will be in business for very much longer with some of their present policies.

You think shoplifting is why Big Lots is in the toilet?

Depends on how much shrinkage of inventory they can sustain. I do know shoplifting is becoming a huge problem for retail establishments. I do know that an increasing # of future 5 finger discounters have figured out no one is going to stop them. So what your clumsily trying to say is that retail theft is NBD...got it...

Hes not saying that hes' questioning your relatively thin business analysis. Otherwise 100% of businesses in NYC from 1965 - 1990 wouldve failed and that didn't happen.

If the Big Lots store I am speaking about goes OOB then my business analysis becomes irrelevant to something both you and I might refer to as reality. Your a business and financial guy. How much shrinkage can a retail store like Big Lots survive? The point you may have missed or glossed over was this... The manager that was fired was transferred by Big Lots to help out this store that was struggling terribly for a number of reasons. He did an excellent job from what I could see. The store while under his management has become squared away. The Big Lots policy about how they deal with shoplifting is their business. In this instance one of his employees was assaulted as the alleged shoplifter left the premises. This was no longer simply an issue dealing with a shoplifter it became an assault on a Big Lots employee. Bottom line is the manager was fired and if this particular Big Lots store stays open until December I will be impressed. FTR when this store goes OOB I will keep you in the loop in regards to my " thin business" analysis. I may not have a doctorate in finance but I spent 45 years working in food service in regards to restaurants and retail stores. When a bunch of dumbasses took over the old Jillian's in downtown Rochester I installed all of the beverage dispensers in that location. I paid very close attention to what their business model was going to be. I predicted they would be OOB in 6 months. I was wrong, they lasted for 4 months.
BTW I mentioned to you awhile back about the owner of Nick Tahous selling the historic restaurant building. It could be a money pit but it is a magnificent old building. I bet if you looked at closely you would agree it has serious possibilities.

All that doesn’t change anything. You could trip across the right outcome and be wrong in your analysis. But I know you don’t get that and aren’t trying to get it. FFG says as matter of fact with maybe a hint of fatigue form trying previously not insulting it’s how you like it. Trust me I learned if just fine with your expert analysis and masters in hard knocks as it relates to mental health and the science an ditching of addiction. Plus like 75 other topics. But I suppose I occasionally still try because I thinj your good people under the willful ignorance you enjoy like a warm blanket in a cold, scary and dark winter.

So somewhere in your psychoanalysis of me you lost tract of my question. I'll try it one more time... How much inventory shrinkage can a retail store like Big Lots absorb? That is after all the entire point of my post. Do you wish to give a clear and concise answer?

You started out with "they are being shoplifted out of existence" then when questioned insist I do the work you can do on the google machine btw. Seems very lazy on your part. Look at all the claims you made plus the one time you guessed and were right. This is lazy to demand others do the work to support or refute your claims based on these bolded and other comments embedded. Yes I absolutley am smarter and know more than you about business and there's no point in debating that further. Does that make you happy that the mean educmacated guy (and I'll throw down on school of hard knocks with you all day and night, I'm obviously superior to your dead friend becuase my relationship with my children is thriving right now and there's someone on this board who I think would testify he saw a glimpse of that very recently in person - other than he might say I'm a fatty now and my hairline is more than just "creeping at the corners" which I can't dent my lack of exercise lately and lack of effciacy of nioxin shampoo).

This daring me to prove it to you is just stupid in the arena of finance and especially more stressed or distressed or structured areas of finance. its akin to me going to Little TLD (whos not so little now) and saying "bro I dare you to try and dodge by me and score!" (except I'm dirty and the minute his first move has me falling on my face im grabbing his a** and taking him down with me and going "see I told ya"!)

The manager of the Big Lots store that was canned stated that this particular store was being shoplifted out of business. It's called paying attention to detail something that you clearly struggle at. Perhaps Big Lots should give you a crack at managing this store. You could use your vocabulary skills to talk these folks out of robbing you blind. Or you might just bore them silly and they will punch you in the face on the way out the door.

Ok. a store manager equals corporate finance expertise. I was bored while collecting my severance in NYC and applied to be manager at a circuit city, the regional manager said "you are great, but this is silly, you are overqualified to have my job" - 16yrs ago.

What if I talked to the treasuer or CFO of Big Lots and they told me the opposite. Would you still be right?

[Farfromgeneva]

This is every bit ugly as the the equivocation on the right and why younger so little support. Because this behavior will turn your cohort on the left further towards populist authoritarianism as you compete the circle with maga by not holding your own accountsbility and consistently distracting from self accountability required to have any moral or other authority instead of screaming form the internet until death.

translation please

Phone typing. You're yelling at everyone here while equivocating and look like a populist tool no different than the people you hate so much. Better?

Keep looking the other way at your own people, it's helpful in coalescing agreement or support for sure.

[Farfromgeneva]

There was an interesting event last week at a local Big Lots Store near our house. A shop lifter in the process of leaving the store with his bag of goodies punched the assistant manager in the face. The manager, witnessing the assault called police and followed the bad actor into the parking lot. The police were unable to locate the individual. Two weeks later the manager was fired for violating Big Lots policy by calling the police without approval by his district manager. Big Lots policy is to not impede or interfere or confront any shop lifter. Even if that individual assaults one of your employees. If I was a shoplifter I would do all of my thieving at Big Lots. They are shoplifter friendly for sure. If you ask nicely they might even give you a bag to put your goodies in. It is quite the dilemma for Big Lots. They don't want to confront these people out of fear of them becoming violent. The down side is they are being shop lifted out of existence. These bad actors understand store policy and will happily take advantage of it. It has to be frustrating for any manager to just watch stolen merchandise walking out the door and all you can do is watch and then make a report to upper management. Who said crime doesn't pay because apparently it does.

FTR for what it is worth, I use to shop at this same Big Lots store fairly frequently. I didn't know the manager in question. I do know in the year or so he was the manager of that store he busted his ass and turned it from a chaotic mess into a well run and organized store. This Big Lots is a stones throw away from the Wegmans I shop at every week. The Wegman family has taken a different approach, if you try to walk out of their store with a bag full of stolen merchandise you will meet the asset protection people up close and personal. Why Big Lots has chosen this path to bankruptcy is painfully clear. They are more concerned about a violent and combative thief being injured and suing the crap out of them. The moral of the story is you can be a dedicated store manager who becomes nothing more than a scape goat for corporate America. How frustrating must it be for a store manager to watch his merchandise walking out the front door and all you can do is watch and shake your head. The thief assaulting one of your employees doesn't even change those dynamics. I call this the death of common sense. Whoever said crime doesn't pay should be the new CEO of Big Lots. BTW, I will never shop at Big Lots again not like they will be in business for very much longer with some of their present policies.

You think shoplifting is why Big Lots is in the toilet?

Depends on how much shrinkage of inventory they can sustain. I do know shoplifting is becoming a huge problem for retail establishments. I do know that an increasing # of future 5 finger discounters have figured out no one is going to stop them. So what your clumsily trying to say is that retail theft is NBD...got it...

Hes not saying that hes' questioning your relatively thin business analysis. Otherwise 100% of businesses in NYC from 1965 - 1990 wouldve failed and that didn't happen.

If the Big Lots store I am speaking about goes OOB then my business analysis becomes irrelevant to something both you and I might refer to as reality. Your a business and financial guy. How much shrinkage can a retail store like Big Lots survive? The point you may have missed or glossed over was this... The manager that was fired was transferred by Big Lots to help out this store that was struggling terribly for a number of reasons. He did an excellent job from what I could see. The store while under his management has become squared away. The Big Lots policy about how they deal with shoplifting is their business. In this instance one of his employees was assaulted as the alleged shoplifter left the premises. This was no longer simply an issue dealing with a shoplifter it became an assault on a Big Lots employee. Bottom line is the manager was fired and if this particular Big Lots store stays open until December I will be impressed. FTR when this store goes OOB I will keep you in the loop in regards to my " thin business" analysis. I may not have a doctorate in finance but I spent 45 years working in food service in regards to restaurants and retail stores. When a bunch of dumbasses took over the old Jillian's in downtown Rochester I installed all of the beverage dispensers in that location. I paid very close attention to what their business model was going to be. I predicted they would be OOB in 6 months. I was wrong, they lasted for 4 months.
BTW I mentioned to you awhile back about the owner of Nick Tahous selling the historic restaurant building. It could be a money pit but it is a magnificent old building. I bet if you looked at closely you would agree it has serious possibilities.

All that doesn’t change anything. You could trip across the right outcome and be wrong in your analysis. But I know you don’t get that and aren’t trying to get it. FFG says as matter of fact with maybe a hint of fatigue form trying previously not insulting it’s how you like it. Trust me I learned if just fine with your expert analysis and masters in hard knocks as it relates to mental health and the science an ditching of addiction. Plus like 75 other topics. But I suppose I occasionally still try because I thinj your good people under the willful ignorance you enjoy like a warm blanket in a cold, scary and dark winter.

So somewhere in your psychoanalysis of me you lost tract of my question. I'll try it one more time... How much inventory shrinkage can a retail store like Big Lots absorb? That is after all the entire point of my post. Do you wish to give a clear and concise answer?

I mean this is just silly I lived in high yield for a number of years where retail is a common industry represented. You want me to run circles around you on this topic and you know it or just accept your anecdotal local store analysis is lacking. I’m not answering because you ever read mortally or the to understand so it is just you wanting to waste my time for no useful outcome. That’s why I’m not bothering. I’ve been explain credit products and trade / supply chain finance all last week often to execs or c suites at major public financial institutions (CPACE tax lien financing on a BK biodiesel plant, bidding on a existing lending business in the Midwest with a friends LP investor money, how you get incremental support by both factoring and taking a promissory note from the buyer in short term credit. Have a call on Weds with a CFO to explain how risk weighting works and structure of “on balance sheet securitization”. And I even once underwrote a loan on a. Couple of “anchored” (big lots doesn’t fit the definition of anchor but drives a light amount of traffic to the “in line tenants” and has to
Do a global occupancy costs analysis to see if rents were healthy or hitting the tenant (Big Lots) and makes shutting those specific stores down more at risk if they weren’t strategic and operating less efficiently on the margin.

I’ll give you a takedown if you promise and honor liek a man that promise to truly try and understand. I stink do business analysis on “man that’s store has some bad urban teens walking around it”…

I just would like for you to stop chasing your tail long enough to answer my very simple question. I'll try it yet again... How much shrinkage of inventory can a store like Big Lots continue to sustain? Once we get past that then please climb back up on your soapbox and continue on trying to enlighten me. The secondary issue which you overlooked was the manager of this store witnessed his assistant manager being assaulted by the alleged thief. I will do you a favor. This Big Lots store has hit its own iceberg and is slowly sinking to the bottom of the ocean. I'll let you know when their going out business sale starts. Maybe you can find some good steals, oops I mean deals.

Not going to bother its not worth it because I could get the founder of finance to explain things to you and your idiot buddy down the street will tell you different and youll believe that guy.

I'm not talking about the theft in one store Im talking about all your conclusions and rigid declarations that demonstrate you know nothing about business at all but call everyone a dumbass while looking for easy button answers. There is no fixed % you heck moron. There is a range and subject to other fixed and variable costs and the heck strategy for growth vs preservation set by a board and you want a dumbass easy button answer which doesnt exist.

Fat lazy and stupid is no way to go through life son. (watch this nimord call me dumbass becuase he thinks I don't know the line is "fat drunk and stupid..)

[Farfromgeneva]

There was an interesting event last week at a local Big Lots Store near our house. A shop lifter in the process of leaving the store with his bag of goodies punched the assistant manager in the face. The manager, witnessing the assault called police and followed the bad actor into the parking lot. The police were unable to locate the individual. Two weeks later the manager was fired for violating Big Lots policy by calling the police without approval by his district manager. Big Lots policy is to not impede or interfere or confront any shop lifter. Even if that individual assaults one of your employees. If I was a shoplifter I would do all of my thieving at Big Lots. They are shoplifter friendly for sure. If you ask nicely they might even give you a bag to put your goodies in. It is quite the dilemma for Big Lots. They don't want to confront these people out of fear of them becoming violent. The down side is they are being shop lifted out of existence. These bad actors understand store policy and will happily take advantage of it. It has to be frustrating for any manager to just watch stolen merchandise walking out the door and all you can do is watch and then make a report to upper management. Who said crime doesn't pay because apparently it does.

FTR for what it is worth, I use to shop at this same Big Lots store fairly frequently. I didn't know the manager in question. I do know in the year or so he was the manager of that store he busted his ass and turned it from a chaotic mess into a well run and organized store. This Big Lots is a stones throw away from the Wegmans I shop at every week. The Wegman family has taken a different approach, if you try to walk out of their store with a bag full of stolen merchandise you will meet the asset protection people up close and personal. Why Big Lots has chosen this path to bankruptcy is painfully clear. They are more concerned about a violent and combative thief being injured and suing the crap out of them. The moral of the story is you can be a dedicated store manager who becomes nothing more than a scape goat for corporate America. How frustrating must it be for a store manager to watch his merchandise walking out the front door and all you can do is watch and shake your head. The thief assaulting one of your employees doesn't even change those dynamics. I call this the death of common sense. Whoever said crime doesn't pay should be the new CEO of Big Lots. BTW, I will never shop at Big Lots again not like they will be in business for very much longer with some of their present policies.

You think shoplifting is why Big Lots is in the toilet?

Depends on how much shrinkage of inventory they can sustain. I do know shoplifting is becoming a huge problem for retail establishments. I do know that an increasing # of future 5 finger discounters have figured out no one is going to stop them. So what your clumsily trying to say is that retail theft is NBD...got it...

Hes not saying that hes' questioning your relatively thin business analysis. Otherwise 100% of businesses in NYC from 1965 - 1990 wouldve failed and that didn't happen.

If the Big Lots store I am speaking about goes OOB then my business analysis becomes irrelevant to something both you and I might refer to as reality. Your a business and financial guy. How much shrinkage can a retail store like Big Lots survive? The point you may have missed or glossed over was this... The manager that was fired was transferred by Big Lots to help out this store that was struggling terribly for a number of reasons. He did an excellent job from what I could see. The store while under his management has become squared away. The Big Lots policy about how they deal with shoplifting is their business. In this instance one of his employees was assaulted as the alleged shoplifter left the premises. This was no longer simply an issue dealing with a shoplifter it became an assault on a Big Lots employee. Bottom line is the manager was fired and if this particular Big Lots store stays open until December I will be impressed. FTR when this store goes OOB I will keep you in the loop in regards to my " thin business" analysis. I may not have a doctorate in finance but I spent 45 years working in food service in regards to restaurants and retail stores. When a bunch of dumbasses took over the old Jillian's in downtown Rochester I installed all of the beverage dispensers in that location. I paid very close attention to what their business model was going to be. I predicted they would be OOB in 6 months. I was wrong, they lasted for 4 months.
BTW I mentioned to you awhile back about the owner of Nick Tahous selling the historic restaurant building. It could be a money pit but it is a magnificent old building. I bet if you looked at closely you would agree it has serious possibilities.

All that doesn’t change anything. You could trip across the right outcome and be wrong in your analysis. But I know you don’t get that and aren’t trying to get it. FFG says as matter of fact with maybe a hint of fatigue form trying previously not insulting it’s how you like it. Trust me I learned if just fine with your expert analysis and masters in hard knocks as it relates to mental health and the science an ditching of addiction. Plus like 75 other topics. But I suppose I occasionally still try because I thinj your good people under the willful ignorance you enjoy like a warm blanket in a cold, scary and dark winter.

So somewhere in your psychoanalysis of me you lost tract of my question. I'll try it one more time... How much inventory shrinkage can a retail store like Big Lots absorb? That is after all the entire point of my post. Do you wish to give a clear and concise answer?

I mean this is just silly I lived in high yield for a number of years where retail is a common industry represented. You want me to run circles around you on this topic and you know it or just accept your anecdotal local store analysis is lacking. I’m not answering because you ever read mortally or the to understand so it is just you wanting to waste my time for no useful outcome. That’s why I’m not bothering. I’ve been explain credit products and trade / supply chain finance all last week often to execs or c suites at major public financial institutions (CPACE tax lien financing on a BK biodiesel plant, bidding on a existing lending business in the Midwest with a friends LP investor money, how you get incremental support by both factoring and taking a promissory note from the buyer in short term credit. Have a call on Weds with a CFO to explain how risk weighting works and structure of “on balance sheet securitization”. And I even once underwrote a loan on a. Couple of “anchored” (big lots doesn’t fit the definition of anchor but drives a light amount of traffic to the “in line tenants” and has to
Do a global occupancy costs analysis to see if rents were healthy or hitting the tenant (Big Lots) and makes shutting those specific stores down more at risk if they weren’t strategic and operating less efficiently on the margin.

I’ll give you a takedown if you promise and honor liek a man that promise to truly try and understand. I stink do business analysis on “man that’s store has some bad urban teens walking around it”…

I just would like for you to stop chasing your tail long enough to answer my very simple question. I'll try it yet again... How much shrinkage of inventory can a store like Big Lots continue to sustain? Once we get past that then please climb back up on your soapbox and continue on trying to enlighten me. The secondary issue which you overlooked was the manager of this store witnessed his assistant manager being assaulted by the alleged thief. I will do you a favor. This Big Lots store has hit its own iceberg and is slowly sinking to the bottom of the ocean. I'll let you know when their going out business sale starts. Maybe you can find some good steals, oops I mean deals.

First of all it’s company wide not store specifics. Store locations come and go. Secondarily it involved. Gross margin - cost of goods sold.

There no one answer it’s based on VARIABLEs like labor costs and supply chain and others. Your need for a ways button solution says it all. But as pointed out by another its far higher than they are experiencing. Only an idiot would think one number fixed is an answer for this. Microsoft allowed Vhins to private windows for years there’s internal communication that’s been made public to this effect and heredity as getting everyone hooked on their software and OS. So they accepted massive theft. Anyone dealing in China does.

Give you a number and you still won’t understand anything and make the same stupid localized anecdote claims about the world you are honestly afraid of stepping into at this point. I wish could help with that rather than give you a useless number here.

You love your petty everyone’s an jerk soapbox as we can see from the genesis of this thread. But oh god anyone explain anything to you rationally and it’s a soapbox. heck it not worth it-your behavior you still serve the same human rights as others but beyond that you just are increasingly ignored by the world and your solution is to shout louder. Brilliant.

FTR everyone is not a jerk with the exception of you. Why did you choose to deviate from the topic at hand and make this personal? If that is the road you want to go down then a piece of white trash from Rochester is more than up to the challenge. How is your ticker doing? You seen your cardiologist recently?

Great health in every way. Only issue is my GP left his finger in there longer than felt necessary but I take that as a compliment as well.

Yeah, you soapbox while insisting everyone is a dumbass and you know better from local anecdotes. This whole inquiry is a circle jerk you don't care about understanding anything and simply afraid of the world. Just wasting peoples time to get your rocks off. Nice.

[Farfromgeneva]

Dark times here in America.
Chaos in the streets.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/10/us/us-vi ... index.html

Statistics are fun things to manipulate. I don't know of any Americans who feel safer in our country today.

Emotions are much easier to "manipulate".

Especially fear.

These are "statistics" gathered the same way over time by the most credible non-partisan group we have.
At different points in time, the numbers may indicate bad news just as they may indicate good news, all based on same fact gathering practices.

The trendlines are real. Sometimes good, sometimes bad.

However, the peddler's profit is in the fear. Beware the source who profits from fear. Examine whether they are peddling anecdotes to demonstrate a reason to be fearful and ignoring actual facts that belie their hyper fear mongering. That's likely on purpose.

Note the numbers don't indicate causal reasons for the trendline, that's where additional analysis of correlation and causation is necessary. And indeed, it's worth examining whether such analysis has an agenda and there may be other, more accurate analyses.

But these numbers are just reported as the best estimate available of factual reality, for better or worse.

I actually agree with you that people are more fearful right now about street crime than they have been in a couple of decades despite good factual reasons not to be, and especially in contrast with several earlier periods in our lifetime, much less earlier times. But I don't chalk up that fear to actual reality, rather it's a combination of our hyper media attention to "if it bleeds it leads" and the ubiquity of instantaneous awareness of various tragic events in a much wider radius, regardless of whether the actual incidence of such is going up versus down. We're simply more aware of more events.

And some of that media, heck all of that media, profits by drawing our attention...and some media and politicians specifically profit from the manipulation of our emotions, doing so quite intentionally and with no compunction about untruthful information.

Your responding to the secret essence of fear in your post.

[Farfromgeneva]

Dark times here in America.
Chaos in the streets.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/10/us/us-vi ... index.html

Statistics are fun things to manipulate. I don't know of any Americans who feel safer in our country today.

Emotions are much easier to "manipulate".

Especially fear.

These are "statistics" gathered the same way over time by the most credible non-partisan group we have.
At different points in time, the numbers may indicate bad news just as they may indicate good news, all based on same fact gathering practices.

The trendlines are real. Sometimes good, sometimes bad.

However, the peddler's profit is in the fear. Beware the source who profits from fear. Examine whether they are peddling anecdotes to demonstrate a reason to be fearful and ignoring actual facts that belie their hyper fear mongering. That's likely on purpose.

Unrelated to the topic and sorry if I shortened your post, but this same fear and hysteria applies to "Ice Age", "Acid Rain", "Global Warming" and "Climate Change". Man will eventually adapt to actual change. If the seas are rising at less than an inch a year we can probably out run the advance.

How do you feel about "probably"??

I agree, alarmists, like extremists, can come in all shapes and sizes, including political persuasions.

On this particular matter, the issue isn't a slow change, it's the potential for a tipping point to accelerate the problem beyond our immediate capacity to withstand without enormous human tragedy and financial collapse. At a minimum, even slow change is going to mean huge financial costs.

That said, I agree that a slow change is bearable, at least to some extent, through migration and mitigation, and slow change allows for the possibility of technological answers to reverse the course that is pretty clearly happening otherwise.

But a tipping point in which trapped gases are released from tundra could rapidly accelerate the problem. We need to not get to that tipping point.

So, can we do reasonable things now that slow the change enough to find superior answers in time?

Most folks overvalue Probability of event rather than impact (severity or gain) from the event if it occurs - hence Taleb became a rock star for pointing this out. In debt investment which translates elsewere its PD * LGD (or LS) = expected value - we're supposed to decision off expected value as much as probibility of event.

[Farfromgeneva]

Dark times here in America.
Chaos in the streets.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/10/us/us-vi ... index.html

Statistics are fun things to manipulate. I don't know of any Americans who feel safer in our country today.

Emotions are much easier to "manipulate".

Especially fear.

These are "statistics" gathered the same way over time by the most credible non-partisan group we have.
At different points in time, the numbers may indicate bad news just as they may indicate good news, all based on same fact gathering practices.

The trendlines are real. Sometimes good, sometimes bad.

However, the peddler's profit is in the fear. Beware the source who profits from fear. Examine whether they are peddling anecdotes to demonstrate a reason to be fearful and ignoring actual facts that belie their hyper fear mongering. That's likely on purpose.

Note the numbers don't indicate causal reasons for the trendline, that's where additional analysis of correlation and causation is necessary. And indeed, it's worth examining whether such analysis has an agenda and there may be other, more accurate analyses.

But these numbers are just reported as the best estimate available of factual reality, for better or worse.

I actually agree with you that people are more fearful right now about street crime than they have been in a couple of decades despite good factual reasons not to be, and especially in contrast with several earlier periods in our lifetime, much less earlier times. But I don't chalk up that fear to actual reality, rather it's a combination of our hyper media attention to "if it bleeds it leads" and the ubiquity of instantaneous awareness of various tragic events in a much wider radius, regardless of whether the actual incidence of such is going up versus down. We're simply more aware of more events.

And some of that media, heck all of that media, profits by drawing our attention...and some media and politicians specifically profit from the manipulation of our emotions, doing so quite intentionally and with no compunction about untruthful information.

So what are you afraid of? A hardcore life long Republican like yourself shouldn't have a fear in the world. Unless of course if you suddenly realize that Republicans understand finally your blowing smoke up their ass.

And I'm the only jerk...

[Brooklyn]

Phone typing. You're yelling at everyone here while equivocating and look like a populist tool no different than the people you hate so much. Better?

Keep looking the other way at your own people, it's helpful in coalescing agreement or support for sure.


And I'm the only jerk...

You said it, not me.

[Typical Lax Dad]

https://apple.news/AR9TGB2YmQnGTfo6bhz3Q5Q

Abused by the badge
A Washington Post investigation found hundreds of law enforcement officers in the United States have sexually exploited kids. Many avoid prison time.

[Farfromgeneva]

Phone typing. You're yelling at everyone here while equivocating and look like a populist tool no different than the people you hate so much. Better?

Keep looking the other way at your own people, it's helpful in coalescing agreement or support for sure.


And I'm the only jerk...

You said it, not me.

That’s fine at least I’m honest and transparent and open about my biases and still ask questions and defer to the experiences AND domain knowledge of others. And have none of the agendas or bad faith in my Rick roll. I do challenge, live by being an empirical skeptic and flanuer and don’t blindly accept the conflation of domain knowledge with thoughtfulness, empathy and intellect.

[Brooklyn]

honest and transparent

You forgot to add
the NONPAREIL of humanity
the epitome of excellence, and
the paradigm of perfection.



After all, you mustn't sell yourself short.

[youthathletics]

This should be a crime, for a man to not know how to grill a burger with cheese: https://x.com/catturd2/status/1802509569022656741

They are now saying he deleted the tweet: https://x.com/libsoftiktok/status/1802542623434915853

Comments are priceless.

[youthathletics]

This should be a crime, for a man to not know how to grill a burger with cheese: https://x.com/catturd2/status/1802509569022656741

They are now saying he deleted the tweet: https://x.com/libsoftiktok/status/1802542623434915853

Comments are priceless.

Follow up meme… https://x.com/wallstreetsilv/status/180 ... a82I2GssRg

[a fan]

This should be a crime, for a man to not know how to grill a burger with cheese: https://x.com/catturd2/status/1802509569022656741

They are now saying he deleted the tweet: https://x.com/libsoftiktok/status/1802542623434915853

Comments are priceless.

Okay...now that's funny.

[youthathletics]

Racketeering by a poltician....no way: https://x.com/BehizyTweets/status/1802867919388324350

[Seacoaster(1)]

Racketeering by a poltician....no way: https://x.com/BehizyTweets/status/1802867919388324350

Guy is quite the thug. He sat in the front row of the prosecutor's press conference announcing the indictment, with loafers and no socks. Is that a Jersey thing?