Is a 2021 season going to happen?

[HooDat]

It seems like air circulation is another key factor for indoor activities.

What is truly odd to me is how more people aren't dealing with the cognitive dissonance that should occur when thinking about the fact that air travel (with full flights including middle seats) has been given the go-ahead, but sports have not.... I don't care what side of the aisle you are on: either both are ok, or neither are ok. Instead we have lobbying groups and money dictating what is and is not allowed....

[Bart]

An interesting article on the Ohio State myocarditis study. : https://www.buckeyextra.com/sports/2020 ... cel-sports

[TNLAX]

So Big Ten football will play this fall, so it appears. What changed in the past month? Does this change anyone's thoughts on lacrosse this spring?

[FMUBart]

So Big Ten football will play this fall, so it appears. What changed in the past month? Does this change anyone's thoughts on lacrosse this spring?

https://nypost.com/2020/09/16/big-ten-v ... -decision/

Definitely good news for this spring!!

[10stone5]

So Big Ten football will play this fall, so it appears. What changed in the past month? Does this change anyone's thoughts on lacrosse this spring?

Pressure to get on the field,
the SEC decision to play,

yes, it changes the game completely for Spring sports.

[BR83]

It seems like air circulation is another key factor for indoor activities.

What is truly odd to me is how more people aren't dealing with the cognitive dissonance that should occur when thinking about the fact that air travel (with full flights including middle seats) has been given the go-ahead, but sports have not.... I don't care what side of the aisle you are on: either both are ok, or neither are ok. Instead we have lobbying groups and money dictating what is and is not allowed....

Air travel is (although certainly not in all cases) more "essential" than sports, but I agree that the rules and expectations do vary in odd and maddening ways. The problem with football is not what's happening on the field, but elsewhere. I live in Ann Arbor, and I can tell you that football games are the biggest party event of the year. That's probably also true across the state of Michigan. Expect spikes at perfectly predictable dates after game days. The good news is that lacrosse in Michigan is the exact opposite in terms of interest - nobody I know here is aware that Michigan even has a team .

[Farfromgeneva]

https://www.espn.com/college-football/s ... oronavirus

[xxxxxxx]

More good news, the chance of lacrosse in the spring looks better every week. Obviously it needs to go well for these other sports.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-baske ... ncaa-vote/

[flyerfan17]

HockeyEast will be back soon as well

[bananas]

On 11/4th, the coronavirus will still be around but we'll be better able to cope with it and resume more activities irregardless of upticks.

[HooDat]

None of the above is to say that data could not come out showing that COVID has some unique association with cardiac disease not seen with other viruses, or that patients with severe COVID have more cardiac sequelae that other critically ill patients or that the virus is trophic for myocytes. I would/will happy acknowledge such data were it published. It has not however been published to date and it does a service to no one to shove out sensationalist drivel that would cause people to think that, on the basis of a 26 patient study whose topline finding could legitimately be that exercise is bad for your heart, 1/7 patients with COVID get myocarditis.

Not sure where else to ask this. pcowlax, I would be curious to hear your thoughts on the following: https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3563

it talks about herd immunity.

[pcowlax]

None of the above is to say that data could not come out showing that COVID has some unique association with cardiac disease not seen with other viruses, or that patients with severe COVID have more cardiac sequelae that other critically ill patients or that the virus is trophic for myocytes. I would/will happy acknowledge such data were it published. It has not however been published to date and it does a service to no one to shove out sensationalist drivel that would cause people to think that, on the basis of a 26 patient study whose topline finding could legitimately be that exercise is bad for your heart, 1/7 patients with COVID get myocarditis.

Not sure where else to ask this. pcowlax, I would be curious to hear your thoughts on the following: https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3563

it talks about herd immunity.

Thanks for posting that HooDat. In my opinion, an emphatic yes. I mentioned the data contained in there in a few other posts. When talking about achieving herd immunity, most people have focused on the % of the population with detectable antibodies to COVID-19. The percentage that you need to have a functional herd immunity is not the same across pathogens (depends on contagiousness, airborne vs respiratory, interaction with comorbidities and presence of those in the community and many other factors) but can often run north of 60%. Even in the worst hit areas there really haven't been many large studies finding the population antibody seropositivity above 20-25% yet the infection has died down in those places and has not not back nearly as aggressively as they have started to reopen (this focuses more on hard hit cities than countries as a whole). The curve has looked about the same everywhere, it always peaks around the same time-frame and comes down. Some of that undoubtedly is do to those communities taking it very seriously once it gets bad, staying home, masking, etc and the roughly 2-4 week lag that this will have before it bends the curve. It seems though that there is something else, that the spread buts up against somewhat of a ceiling. This is likely due to population T-cell immunity against prior coronaviruses and their at least partial cross reactivity with this one. It is much harder to measure pathogen specific T-cells than to do serology testing for antibodies so this is not done as routine screening. In multiple studies however, including some in that article, from different countries, between 20-50% of patients not exposed to COVID have T-cells reactive against SARS-COV-2 (including from samples of old blood donors before the emergence of COVID). These may not confer the degree of immunity of anti-bodies (although they may in fact do so) but it would be expected to provide at least some protection. Being "immune" to something does not mean you have a force field around you against that bug. It still gets in your nose, in your mucosa, and starts to replicate. If you have a prior exposure and have developed immunulogic memory to it, that means the body can immediately ramp up an adaptive, rather than just innate, immune response to it and clear it out before it gets established. This exists on a spectrum. It may mean you have no symptoms at all, it may be that it is only very mild instead of severe. It seems very likely to me that one of the primary reasons say, NYC, is seeing so few cases now as it reopens is that a very large percentage of the remaining population is immune; 20-25% who were exposed, were vulnerable, "got" the infection and and developed antibodies and another, who knows, 20-40% who had T-cell immunity and, if exposed, did not allow it to take hold enough to even develop antibodies. Put those together and you have something like 50-60% and may have the making of herd immunity. Important to note that herd immunity, unless you are talking something like a polio eradication regimen where literally everyone is vaccinate, does not mean that no one will get it or that it will not become endemic to a population, it will just be kept at a low levels and not experience any exponential growth.

[stupefied]

Writeup above makes sense based on what Ive seen..Impact and fear has subsided rightfully or not. Kids are all over the fields huddling and practicing whether it be club or capt practices. The gatherings are seen and known by town and school officials as well as parents .

See a tweet showing UVA started practice just the other day , most others haven't but would assume a mater of time. Not sure how this all pans out going forward but becoming more optimistic that season will come off. Just hope that colleges dont overreact to a few cases that will occur but can be controlled

[Laxfandad]

IMO
I believe it could be done. I don't think it would be the traditional season as we know it. The schools/teams would need to buy-in to an "altered" approach.

Here's my thinking.

Forget conferences exactly as we know it. Create geographically sensible 6 team conferences and "bubble these teams" near the selected school (maybe the school that was slotted to host the conference tournament). Play 15 round-robin games in total plus 2 semis and a final (18 games). Give teams an off day in-between game. 11-day tourney. The final two teams are going to the NCAA tournament.

Don't know how seeding would work in this manner. No one really knows how it works in today's model.

Re-bubble these teams. The 24 team tournament would be a single-elimination as we know.

Issues
Seeding
Schoolwork
Handling positive Covid cases
Cost should be comparable or even less than typical travel (especially for teams like Denver,Air Force)
Getting buy-in from all teams

[viper]

None of the above is to say that data could not come out showing that COVID has some unique association with cardiac disease not seen with other viruses, or that patients with severe COVID have more cardiac sequelae that other critically ill patients or that the virus is trophic for myocytes. I would/will happy acknowledge such data were it published. It has not however been published to date and it does a service to no one to shove out sensationalist drivel that would cause people to think that, on the basis of a 26 patient study whose topline finding could legitimately be that exercise is bad for your heart, 1/7 patients with COVID get myocarditis.

Not sure where else to ask this. pcowlax, I would be curious to hear your thoughts on the following: https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3563

it talks about herd immunity.

I am far from an expert on this subject but wanted to throw out another article by William Haseltine who does bring some gravitas to the conversation with regard to achieving herd immunity....

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/18/opinions ... index.html

[bauer4429]

I think teams need to keep a watchful eye on athletes that carry the sickle cell trait. They seem to be at risk for getting severely ill from Covid. Protective measures should be put in place for them, and they should be allowed to sit this year out if they choose and return next year.

[FMUBart]

On 11/4th, the coronavirus will still be around but we'll be better able to cope with it and resume more activities irregardless of upticks.

I agree with the timing..however, "irregardless" ain't a word

[FMUBart]

I think teams need to keep a watchful eye on athletes that carry the sickle cell trait. They seem to be at risk for getting severely ill from Covid. Protective measures should be put in place for them, and they should be allowed to sit this year out if they choose and return next year.

Or any pre-existing, for that matter...

[HooDat]

Thanks for posting that HooDat.

Thanks for the thoughtful reply - nice to hear from someone who knows what they are talking about.

[bananas]

On 11/4th, the coronavirus will still be around but we'll be better able to cope with it and resume more activities irregardless of upticks.

I agree with the timing..however, "irregardless" ain't a word

Im not bananas!

https://www.npr.org/2020/07/07/88764901 ... -is-a-word