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Re: Lacrosse Analytics
Posted: Mon Apr 18, 2022 10:08 am
by lorin
masondixonlax wrote: ↑Mon Apr 18, 2022 9:41 am
laxreference wrote: ↑Mon Apr 18, 2022 9:11 am
Here's what I submitted for my Top-20 this week. What do you think?
lacrossereference_rankings_20220417_NCAAD1Men.jpg
IMO Cornell is way to high, as is UNC and Saint Joseph's. Brown should be near top 10
Did u watch any games this week. seriously putting Cornell at # 3.
Re: Lacrosse Analytics
Posted: Mon Apr 18, 2022 11:09 am
by laxreference
ICGrad wrote: ↑Mon Apr 18, 2022 9:53 am
Cornell #3 even after the loss to Army? Surprising...
They definitely fell in the model. Last week, they were in a bunch with Maryland/Georgetown. This week they are in a 2nd tier with Rutgers. At the end of the day, especially in the Elo ratings, they had enough of a cushion built up that a loss to Army just doesn't drop them enough to fall out of that spot.
Re: Lacrosse Analytics
Posted: Mon Apr 18, 2022 11:11 am
by laxreference
Gobigred wrote: ↑Mon Apr 18, 2022 9:34 am
Brown too low after wins over Penn and Yale.
They are definitely hot. But at the moment, Brown has just the 17th best
Strength-of-Record. As good as their last 2 games have been, the model takes into account the 4 lackluster losses too since it's roughly half based on the full season resume.
Re: Lacrosse Analytics
Posted: Mon Apr 18, 2022 2:53 pm
by joewillie78
Are we getting the top individual performers from this past weekend or did I miss it?
GOBIGRED
Joewillie78
Re: Lacrosse Analytics
Posted: Mon Apr 18, 2022 3:01 pm
by laxreference
joewillie78 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 18, 2022 2:53 pm
Are we getting the top individual performers from this past weekend or did I miss it?
GOBIGRED
Joewillie78
As always, here is the top individual EGA performances of the past week. The
full post is here, but here are the highlights...
Marc O'Rourke (
BRY) finally got loose for Bryant and put up a 10.23 EGA spot against Sacred Heart. He's been the focus of opposing defenses all year, so we haven't seen his name too much. That changed this week.
Here is how the rest of the top 10 shook out:
Alston Tarry (
BUCK) - 8.02 EGA
Justin Coppola (
NOVA) - 8.05 EGA
Will Coletti (
ARMY) - 7.96 EGA
Brandon Dodd (
AFA) - 7.39 EGA
John Piatelli (
COR) - 7.06 EGA
Jackson Intrieri (
JAV) - 6.67 EGA
Brennan O'Neill (
DUKE) - 6.58 EGA
Nicholas Ramsey (
YALE) - 7.05 EGA
Jack Kiernan (
SIE) - 6.70 EGA
Re: Lacrosse Analytics
Posted: Sat Apr 23, 2022 2:50 pm
by laxreference
Re: Lacrosse Analytics
Posted: Sat Apr 23, 2022 8:19 pm
by laxreference
Here's how the model sees the bubble right now. OSU/ND/BU all have work to do.
- Screenshot 2022-04-23 201823.jpg (29.11 KiB) Viewed 1411 times
Re: Lacrosse Analytics
Posted: Sat Apr 23, 2022 8:45 pm
by MoralTerpitude
laxreference wrote: ↑Sat Apr 23, 2022 8:19 pm
Here's how the model sees the bubble right now. OSU/ND/BU all have work to do.
Screenshot 2022-04-23 201823.jpg
Can you predict what will happen if Notre Dame beats Duke? Would the model put both of them over 50% for an at-large?
I am also curious about how a Rutgers-OSU semifinal result would change the at-large picture.
Believe those are by far the two most impactful games left regarding the at-large picture, though I guess Princeton-Cornell may now be in the mix too.
Re: Lacrosse Analytics
Posted: Sat Apr 23, 2022 9:03 pm
by CU77
The loser of Princeton-Cornell will not make the Ivy League Tournament.
Re: Lacrosse Analytics
Posted: Mon Apr 25, 2022 11:59 am
by laxreference
As always, here is the top individual EGA performances of the past week. The
full post is here, but here are the highlights...
Adam Shea (
HOB) took the top spot with a 7.70 EGA performance. After losing Blanchard the Statesmen are still the 16th best adjusted FO unit.
Here is how the rest of the top 10 shook out:
Petey LaSalla (
UVA) - 7.48 EGA
Kevin Winkoff (
BING) - 6.82 EGA
Ryan Archer (
HOB) - 6.36 EGA
Thomas Colucci (
COL) - 6.63 EGA
Luke Keating (
NOVA) - 6.04 EGA
Luke Rusterucci (
VMI) - 6.02 EGA
Jeff Conner (
UVA) - 5.86 EGA
Jack Myers (
OSU) - 6.14 EGA
Logan Wisnauskas (
MD) - 5.93 EGA
Re: Lacrosse Analytics
Posted: Sat Apr 30, 2022 9:41 am
by laxreference
Updated
Bracketology after last night's games. List of teams alive for an at-large
Duke
OSU
Harvard
UNC
Denver
Notre Dame
BU (very slightly)
Re: Lacrosse Analytics
Posted: Sat Apr 30, 2022 9:51 am
by lorin
laxreference wrote: ↑Sat Apr 30, 2022 9:41 am
Updated
Bracketology after last night's games. List of teams alive for an at-large
Duke
OSU
Harvard
UNC
Denver
Notre Dame
BU (very slightly)
Waste of time , What a shocker 3 ACC teams still have chance, congrats you learned fast how to keep your boss happy.
Re: Lacrosse Analytics
Posted: Sat Apr 30, 2022 10:54 am
by MoralTerpitude
lorin wrote: ↑Sat Apr 30, 2022 9:51 am
laxreference wrote: ↑Sat Apr 30, 2022 9:41 am
Updated
Bracketology after last night's games. List of teams alive for an at-large
Duke
OSU
Harvard
UNC
Denver
Notre Dame
BU (very slightly)
Waste of time , What a shocker 3 ACC teams still have chance, congrats you learned fast how to keep your boss happy.
That’s not really fair. The three are technically all alive for probably one at-large berth, but will be essentially playing elimination games over the next week. If ND loses to Duke or Syracuse, they’re likely eliminated. If Duke falls to UNC or ND, they’re likely eliminated. And UNC could win against Duke and still not make the bracket. And things could happen in other tournaments (like someone other than Georgetown winning the Big East, or a bottom-three B1G team winning) that could push all three off the bubble entirely.
Not an ACC fan, but rewatching the Terps-ND game, definitely feel it would be a shame if ND missed the tournament. They are a scrappy and well coached team, and are certainly one of the top ten or so in the nation. But they’ll need to prove it tomorrow and Thursday.
Re: Lacrosse Analytics
Posted: Sat Apr 30, 2022 11:39 am
by laxreference
MoralTerpitude wrote: ↑Sat Apr 30, 2022 10:54 am
lorin wrote: ↑Sat Apr 30, 2022 9:51 am
laxreference wrote: ↑Sat Apr 30, 2022 9:41 am
Updated
Bracketology after last night's games. List of teams alive for an at-large
Duke
OSU
Harvard
UNC
Denver
Notre Dame
BU (very slightly)
Waste of time , What a shocker 3 ACC teams still have chance, congrats you learned fast how to keep your boss happy.
That’s not really fair. The three are technically all alive for probably one at-large berth, but will be essentially playing elimination games over the next week. If ND loses to Duke or Syracuse, they’re likely eliminated. If Duke falls to UNC or ND, they’re likely eliminated. And UNC could win against Duke and still not make the bracket. And things could happen in other tournaments (like someone other than Georgetown winning the Big East, or a bottom-three B1G team winning) that could push all three off the bubble entirely.
Not an ACC fan, but rewatching the Terps-ND game, definitely feel it would be a shame if ND missed the tournament. They are a scrappy and well coached team, and are certainly one of the top ten or so in the nation. But they’ll need to prove it tomorrow and Thursday.
Your analysis is spot on. These are the teams that earned an at-large in at least one of the simulation runs; hence they are technically alive. You are right to point out that the chances are better for some than others. Denver/UNC/Harvard/BU/ND are in must-win situations. OSU/Duke are the ones that can survive a potential loss.
Re: Lacrosse Analytics
Posted: Sat Apr 30, 2022 12:18 pm
by laxreference
Re: Lacrosse Analytics
Posted: Mon May 02, 2022 8:52 am
by laxreference
Here's what I submitted for my Top-20 this week...
- lacrossereference_rankings_20220501_NCAAD1Men.jpg (112.57 KiB) Viewed 971 times
Re: Lacrosse Analytics
Posted: Mon May 02, 2022 8:56 am
by MDlaxfan76
laxreference wrote: ↑Mon May 02, 2022 8:52 am
Here's what I submitted for my Top-20 this week...
lacrossereference_rankings_20220501_NCAAD1Men.jpg
Did you simply forget Harvard?
Re: Lacrosse Analytics
Posted: Mon May 02, 2022 9:07 am
by lorin
MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Mon May 02, 2022 8:56 am
laxreference wrote: ↑Mon May 02, 2022 8:52 am
Here's what I submitted for my Top-20 this week...
lacrossereference_rankings_20220501_NCAAD1Men.jpg
Did you simply forget Harvard?
was thinking same thing
Re: Lacrosse Analytics
Posted: Mon May 02, 2022 9:15 am
by Can Opener
laxreference wrote: ↑Mon May 02, 2022 8:52 am
Here's what I submitted for my Top-20 this week...
lacrossereference_rankings_20220501_NCAAD1Men.jpg
Brown has beaten Yale, Cornell and Penn, yet you rank all three ahead of the Bears.
Re: Lacrosse Analytics
Posted: Mon May 02, 2022 9:18 am
by laxreference
As always, here is the top individual EGA performances of the past week. The
full post is here, but here are the highlights...
Matt Brandau (
YALE) put up a gaudy 8.61 EGA against Quinnipiac. His performance against Harvard may have been more impactful, but the combination of production/efficiency against the Bobcats took the top spot.
Here is how the rest of the top 10 shook out:
Jacob Buck (
CAN) - 7.39 EGA
Pat Kavanagh (
ND) - 7.28 EGA
Quinn McConnaughey (
PC) - 7.36 EGA
Nicholas Ramsey (
YALE) - 7.05 EGA
Richie LaCalandra (
LIU) - 6.67 EGA
Sam English (
PRIN) - 5.93 EGA
Matt Grillo (
PC) - 5.83 EGA
Michael Long (
COR) - 5.62 EGA
Jake Naso (
DUKE) - 6.05 EGA