School Closings

[Farfromgeneva]

That ones all you.

[DU-fan]

I can't wait for summer ball and fall ball. I am very curious to see what the NCAA does on eligibility.

I think the NCAA will do the right thing and give every player an extra year.

If they do, I hope they give the schools an additional 3.15 scholarships (12.6/4). If they do it will also have an impact on roster sizes and recruiting for the years to come.

[DU-fan]

Good news

SPRING ATHLETES GRANTED EXTRA YEAR OF ELIGIBILITY BY NCAA
FRI MAR 13 2020 | KENNY DEJOHN | COLLEGE

https://www.uslaxmagazine.com/college/s ... ty-by-ncaa

[a fan]

Nicely done, PB.

[44WeWantMore]

I am pretty sure I was the first to provide graphs of Philadelphia versus St. Louis during the Spanish Flu, and the first to provide the flattening the curve graph, but here are two takes.

Optimistic from the WP, with some neat simulations, assuming we take our social distancing seriously (I understand there is no paywall for the time being): https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics ... simulator/

Pessimistic, assuming our health care 'spare' capacity is minimal: https://medium.com/@joschabach/flatteni ... a324fe9727 Note that for the Spanish flu, there were lots of surplus WWI cots and tents for makeshift hospitals (and even some evidence that fresh air and sunshine was more effective than 100-year-old hospitalization protocols).

[bearlaxfan]

Too soon to tell from warmer parts of the globe if the weather will be of any aid, but history is clear that the Spanish flu came roaring back in the colder weather. And yes, StL did a better job than elsewhere.

Side note: I believe geneticists and epidemiologists have traced the 'Spanish' flu back to its origin on a Kansas duck farm. Methodology waaaayyyy above my pay scale.

[44WeWantMore]

I head over to the Covid-19 (or whatever that thread is called over the Politics area) to post this, and I was reminded of why I left the LP equivalent, so I am posting two points of light here instead:

First, it is maybe looking as if Italy's new cases and new deaths are both peaking. Italy is not Singapore, Japan, or even South Korea. If they can do it, then so can we.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... try/italy/

Second, the Diamond Princess, possibly a model for a worst-case scenario appears to be less terrifying that many fear:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/03/16/ ... mysteries/

[Bart]

I head over to the Covid-19 (or whatever that thread is called over the Politics area) to post this, and I was reminded of why I left the LP equivalent, so I am posting two points of light here instead:

First, it is maybe looking as if Italy's new cases and new deaths are both peaking. Italy is not Singapore, Japan, or even South Korea. If they can do it, then so can we.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... try/italy/

Second, the Diamond Princess, possibly a model for a worst-case scenario appears to be less terrifying that many fear:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/03/16/ ... mysteries/

Yup, Italy new cases are flattening out at ~3500/day. Good news. Total shut down but good news.

[pcowlax]

Italy with huge jump to 4200 cases and 475 deaths today. So no flattening yet.

[OCanada]

LA has had a big jump. 70% of GOP thinks the virus is either a fraud or overhyped. Expecting numbers from the south. WVA got its first case and they are concerned there is no testing and its masking much bigger numbers

[44WeWantMore]

Italy with huge jump to 4200 cases and 475 deaths today. So no flattening yet.

Thanks. It appears that my site (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... try/italy/) might be a secondary source, and is therefore a day behind yours. May I ask where you got your numbers?

[xxxxxxx]

The NESCAC was the first league to cancel spring sports and now Bowdoin and Williams are cancelling fall sports, I hope history is not repeating itself.

https://www.williams.edu/coronavirus/

[pcowlax]

It seems inevitable (which is very different from saying it is correct). If schools are not going to allow students to eat together in cafeterias, how on earth can they allow them to, say, play football, with all of the close contact, sweating, spitting, slobbering, etc that comes with it. For NESCAC, where football only plays league games and there is extraordinary homogeneity of thought amongst administrators, I think this announcement does it. You aren't going to see say, 6 teams playing and 4 not, it was always going to be virtually all yes or all no, I am afraid the Nos are going to have it. I certainly don't agree with much of this but the writing is on the wall. Spring 2021 athletics is, at best, in serious doubt. It will be a fascinating sociology experiment to see what happens with D1 football. Everyone knows that playing will increase spread (and for that matter that virtually every kid who gets it will be fine) and for almost every other setting the potential/promise of increased spread guarantees an activity being shut down but oh, the $$$$$. It's the immovable object of D1 football money and Big State U athletic budgets vs the irresistible object of social media/public pressure. Honestly not sure how this will play out.

[notentitled]

Saw the latest posts about Williams canceling sports in the Fall- it's a different game. For some areas surrounding the D1 schools, a program like PSU supplies the economy. Every little hotel around State College Pennsylvania sees a surge in occupancy , gas stations sell more goods, etc. Williams and the Nescac schools do not support local economies. Thus, for a state like Pennsylvania it is a big deal.

[cuseman4133]

I saw something on Twitter say watch what the NESCAC does. Usually an early indicator of what will happen.

I think there's a legit chance spring football happens, but we're comparing NESCAC to the ACC and Big Ten and SEC and the rest of the FBS which really depends and gets a ton of money off football. They're going to try to move every stone possible to have a fall season. I think they would suffer a bit if the season was pushed back to the spring.

Would wonder if D2 and D3 decide to play football and their other fall sports in the spring, while D1 stays as normal as possible.

[PicLax]

With Williams cancelling fall sports, I imagine rest of NESCAC will follow path taken by Bowdoin and Williams. From boththe conservative approach being taken toward campus activity during the virus, coupled with sports being non-revenue (and in fact having a cost), would not be surprised to see sports cancelled for the whole year. This might cascade to other D3 schools for similar reasons. With revenue generated by football, D1 going to try to hold out as long as possible to have sports. But if football goes away, think very possible they too will cancel all sports. If move football to spring, think it would be a challenge for all other normal spring sports to co-exist, and some non-revenue sports might be in trouble.

[bauer4429]

I certainly hope D1 athletics can start their fall seasons as usual. There’s a big difference between D3 and D1. The most significant difference being the fact D3 does not offer athletic scholarships and are focused on academics. Athletics are just a nice extra curricular activity to enhance your experience. D1 is a whole different ball game.

[Farfromgeneva]

Keep in mind for football the NESCAC is a closed loop, almost like D4. They have no interleague involvement and don't participate in the Division 3 playoffs. This isn't meant as a criticism of those athletes, but compared with the other 300+ participating D3 football institutions it's tantamount to club football. With top shelf educations. I know a lot of NESCAC folks who've tried to claim they could easily be top 20 in D3, I think reality is somewhere between that and them being completely noncompetitive as some D3 football folks I know claim, but it doesn't matter as they simply don't participate with the rest of Division 3.

Now soccer may be almost more important in fall to many of those schools, a friend's father was the longtime Williams soccer coach who won at least one D3 championship. But they haven't showed much care for football overall so less of a canary to me.

[cc2519]

With Williams cancelling fall sports, I imagine rest of NESCAC will follow path taken by Bowdoin and Williams. From boththe conservative approach being taken toward campus activity during the virus, coupled with sports being non-revenue (and in fact having a cost), would not be surprised to see sports cancelled for the whole year. This might cascade to other D3 schools for similar reasons. With revenue generated by football, D1 going to try to hold out as long as possible to have sports. But if football goes away, think very possible they too will cancel all sports. If move football to spring, think it would be a challenge for all other normal spring sports to co-exist, and some non-revenue sports might be in trouble.

It's madness. With AZ, TX, NY, NJ and Los Angeles announcing more closures, delays, etc. - no business /organization can continue to operate with this kind of uncertainty. Imagine you have a restaurant and just bought $$ of inventory b/c you planned to open later this week. And now that money is GONE. So is the PPP money that was allowing them to make payroll. Businesses that have been holding on by a thread will start throwing in the towel, for good.

This is fundamentally unsustainable. It's as if this country is in the midst of some kind of mass hysteria. This is going to get MUCH worse before it gets better.

[Wheels]

I certainly hope D1 athletics can start their fall seasons as usual. There’s a big difference between D3 and D1. The most significant difference being the fact D3 does not offer athletic scholarships and are focused on academics. Athletics are just a nice extra curricular activity to enhance your experience. D1 is a whole different ball game.

Aside from generating a ton of enrollment $$, yes, D3 sports do enhance student experience. D3 administrators probably hope that their athletes still decide to remain enrolled and not take gap years.