LaxPower Back-Up Stick

Updated list of Live Win Probability Links

- Duke vs Syracuse
- Detroit vs High Point
- Air Force vs Marquette
- Bryant vs Hobart
- Merrimack vs LIU
- Canisius vs Vermont
- Holy Cross vs Navy
- St. John's vs Jacksonville
- Monmouth vs Quinnipiac
- Mount St Marys vs Sacred Heart
- VMI vs Cleveland State
- Georgetown vs Lehigh
- Lafayette vs Boston U
- Cornell vs Penn
- Notre Dame vs Virginia
- Army vs Loyola
- UMass vs Brown
- Drexel vs Robert Morris
- Stony Brook vs Albany
- UMBC vs Binghamton
- Hofstra vs Providence
- Manhattan vs St. Bonaventure
- Mercer vs Utah
- Towson vs Denver
- Michigan vs Johns Hopkins
- Saint Joseph's vs Wagner
- Bellarmine vs North Carolina
- Richmond vs Hampton
- Princeton vs Yale
- Delaware vs Villanova
- Dartmouth vs Harvard
- Colgate vs Bucknell
- Siena vs Marist
- UMass-Lowell vs NJIT

As always, here is the top individual EGA performances of the past week. The full post is here, but here are the highlights...

Conor Calderone (BU) had 31 faceoff wins (and 9.27 EGA) in the Terriers' demolition of Lafayette. It was a dominant performance, and when you pair it with D'Alto's 7 goals and 7 assists; it is one of the best 1-2 teammate combo days I've ever seen.


Here is how the rest of the top 10 shook out:

Vince D'Alto (BU) - 8.16 EGA
Asher Nolting (HPU) - 8.27 EGA
Matt Brandau (YALE) - 7.99 EGA
Sam King (HARV) - 7.76 EGA
Cole Brams (UTAH) - 8.11 EGA
Richie LaCalandra (LIU) - 7.48 EGA
Tucker Dordevic (SYR) - 7.19 EGA
Max Semple (DREX) - 6.64 EGA
Matt Campbell (NOVA) - 6.56 EGA

Duke's outlook has been a hot topic of discussion this week. I think their NCAA chances are probably a lot higher than people think.

Updated list of Live Win Probability Links

- Marist vs Quinnipiac
- Robert Morris vs Detroit
- Siena vs Monmouth
- Canisius vs Manhattan
- High Point vs Jacksonville
- Navy vs Boston U
- Lehigh vs Lafayette
- Maryland vs Michigan
- Virginia vs Richmond
- Princeton vs Brown
- UMBC vs Vermont
- LIU vs Bryant
- Loyola vs Holy Cross
- Providence vs Marquette
- Cleveland State vs Bellarmine
- Mercer vs VMI
- Villanova vs St. John's
- Delaware vs UMass
- Cornell vs Dartmouth
- Colgate vs Harvard
- Army vs Bucknell
- Hobart vs Saint Joseph's
- Mount St Marys vs Merrimack
- Hofstra vs Fairfield
- Duke vs North Carolina
- Utah vs Air Force
- Georgetown vs Denver
- Syracuse vs Notre Dame
- Penn vs Yale
- Towson vs Drexel
- Sacred Heart vs Wagner
- Albany vs UMass-Lowell
- Binghamton vs NJIT

Live Win Probability Links w/ Recap Analyses

- Marist vs Quinnipiac
- Robert Morris vs Detroit
- Siena vs Monmouth
- Canisius vs Manhattan
- High Point vs Jacksonville
- Navy vs Boston U (Recap Analysis)
- Lehigh vs Lafayette
- Maryland vs Michigan
- Virginia vs Richmond (Recap Analysis)
- Princeton vs Brown (Recap Analysis)
- UMBC vs Vermont
- LIU vs Bryant
- Loyola vs Holy Cross
- Providence vs Marquette (Recap Analysis)
- Cleveland State vs Bellarmine
- Mercer vs VMI (Recap Analysis)
- Villanova vs St. John's
- Delaware vs UMass
- Cornell vs Dartmouth
- Colgate vs Harvard
- Army vs Bucknell
- Hobart vs Saint Joseph's
- Mount St Marys vs Merrimack
- Hofstra vs Fairfield (Recap Analysis)
- Duke vs North Carolina
- Utah vs Air Force
- Georgetown vs Denver
- Syracuse vs Notre Dame
- Penn vs Yale
- Towson vs Drexel
- Sacred Heart vs Wagner
- Albany vs UMass-Lowell
- Binghamton vs NJIT

Here's a quick rundown of some of the finals

Boston U vs Navy

Does BU stand for Bully University?

For the season, the Terriers have turned over their opponent on 50.7% of the possessions they have faced. And that doesn't include failed clears. That's right. If a team clears the ball against BU, there is still a better than even odds chances that ... Read More

Richmond vs Virginia

I've been talking about the Richmond offense all season. We've been used to the Spiders' defense being formidable, but coming into this game, the Richmond offense was the #11 opponent-adjusted offense in the country. I don't think we should be looking at this game as a failure of the UVA ... Read More

Brown vs Princeton

Things you love to see. Players increasing their volume without sacrificing their efficiency. That was Alex Slusher against Brown, who took a season-high 12 shots and still shot 50%. The 6 goals was a season high and most importantly, it was also one of his most efficient games of ... Read More

Marquette vs Providence

Yes, the Providence defense entered this one as the 58th rated opponent-adjusted defense in the country. But still, you don't see 9-goal quarters very often. It was just the 22nd time that's happened this year.

The Golden Eagles onslaught included 17 shots, of which 13 were on cage. ... Read More

VMI vs Mercer

Kudos to the Keydets for finishing this one against Mercer. Coming in to this game, their goal margins by quarter went:

Q1: -8
Q2: -10
Q3: -27
Q4: -37

For whatever reason, they've had a hard time finishing games. Not today. Today, in the 4th quarter, VMI held their ground.

Sure, you could argue that ... Read More

Fairfield vs Hofstra

Oof. With 10:19 left in Q4, the Pride scored to go up 10-8 on Fairfield. At the time, their win probability was 83%.

Over the final 10 minutes, Hofstra then put a grand total of 1 shots on cage. The watched as Fairfield scored the final 4 tallies, including 3 goals ... Read More

North Carolina vs Duke

It's never been one thing for Duke this year. They just seem to either be in a funk or not so much.

But one stat to keep an eye on is their turnover rate. In 9 wins this year, the Blue Devils have turned the ball over 30.6% of the ... Read More

And the links for the rest of the day's games...
Marist vs Quinnipiac
Robert Morris vs Detroit
Siena vs Monmouth
Canisius vs Manhattan
High Point vs Jacksonville
Lehigh vs Lafayette
Maryland vs Michigan
UMBC vs Vermont
LIU vs Bryant
Loyola vs Holy Cross
Cleveland State vs Bellarmine
Villanova vs St. John's
Delaware vs UMass
Cornell vs Dartmouth
Colgate vs Harvard
Army vs Bucknell
Hobart vs Saint Joseph's
Mount St Marys vs Merrimack
Utah vs Air Force
Georgetown vs Denver
Syracuse vs Notre Dame
Penn vs Yale
Towson vs Drexel
Sacred Heart vs Wagner
Albany vs UMass-Lowell
Binghamton vs NJIT

As always, here is the top individual EGA performances of the past week. The full post is here, but here are the highlights...

Brennan O'Neill (DUKE) had 6.80 EGA in the win over UNC. Was this the Duke offense turning a corner? Or should we expect at least one more dud the rest of the way?


Here is how the rest of the top 10 shook out:

Cj Kirst (COR) - 7.03 EGA
Timmy Ley (BU) - 6.21 EGA
Luke Wierman (MD) - 6.84 EGA
Johnny Richiusa (CAN) - 6.85 EGA
Alex Slusher (PRIN) - 6.32 EGA
Will Coletti (ARMY) - 6.56 EGA
Matt Constantinides (TOW) - 6.58 EGA
Pat Kavanagh (ND) - 5.85 EGA
Bobby O'Grady (MARQ) - 5.94 EGA

Live Win Probability Links

- Air Force vs Detroit
- Richmond vs Jacksonville
- Utah vs Cleveland State
- Quinnipiac vs Canisius
- Georgetown vs Providence
- Johns Hopkins vs Ohio State
- Yale vs Dartmouth
- Hofstra vs Delaware
- UMass vs Towson
- Albany vs UMBC
- LIU vs Mount St Marys
- Monmouth vs St. Bonaventure
- Merrimack vs Sacred Heart
- Wagner vs Hobart
- Manhattan vs Siena
- Marquette vs St. John's
- NJIT vs Stony Brook
- Lafayette vs Holy Cross
- Hampton vs Mercer
- Notre Dame vs Duke
- Denver vs Villanova
- Boston U vs Princeton
- Brown vs Penn
- Bryant vs Saint Joseph's
- Loyola vs Navy
- Fairfield vs Drexel
- Harvard vs Cornell
- Bellarmine vs Robert Morris
- Colgate vs Army
- North Carolina vs Virginia
- Vermont vs UMass-Lowell

Here's what I submitted for my Top 20 this week.

As always, here is the top individual EGA performances of the past week. The full post is here, but here are the highlights...

Luke Williams (MARQ) put up 8.43 EGA against STJ. As Georgetown has risen over the past few years, it's taken some of the shine off of Marquette, but he's a guy that's going to have to keep developing for them to challenge at the top of the Big East.


Here is how the rest of the top 10 shook out:

Chris Lyons (YALE) - 7.37 EGA
Matt Brandau (YALE) - 6.73 EGA
Will Lynch (ND) - 7.32 EGA
Brandon Dodd (AFA) - 6.91 EGA
Michael McCormack (UVM) - 6.21 EGA
Asher Nolting (HPU) - 6.29 EGA
Mikey Sisselberger (LEH) - 6.38 EGA
Dylan Pallonetti (STNY) - 5.79 EGA
Pat Kavanagh (ND) - 5.98 EGA

laxreference wrote: ↑Mon Apr 11, 2022 9:50 am As always, here is the top individual EGA performances of the past week. The full post is here, but here are the highlights...

Luke Williams (MARQ) put up 8.43 EGA against STJ. As Georgetown has risen over the past few years, it's taken some of the shine off of Marquette, but he's a guy that's going to have to keep developing for them to challenge at the top of the Big East.


Here is how the rest of the top 10 shook out:

Chris Lyons (YALE) - 7.37 EGA
Matt Brandau (YALE) - 6.73 EGA
Will Lynch (ND) - 7.32 EGA
Brandon Dodd (AFA) - 6.91 EGA
Michael McCormack (UVM) - 6.21 EGA
Asher Nolting (HPU) - 6.29 EGA
Mikey Sisselberger (LEH) - 6.38 EGA
Dylan Pallonetti (STNY) - 5.79 EGA
Pat Kavanagh (ND) - 5.98 EGA

Just out of curiosity, what was Longs # from Cornell as he put up 7 I believe, 4,3?
GOBIGRED
Joewillie78

joewillie78 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 11, 2022 11:03 am
Just out of curiosity, what was Longs # from Cornell as he put up 7 I believe, 4,3?
GOBIGRED
Joewillie78

Raw EGA was 4.90. uaEGA was 3.92 (very efficient performance). Great game for Long.

laxreference wrote: ↑Mon Apr 11, 2022 11:15 am

joewillie78 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 11, 2022 11:03 am
Just out of curiosity, what was Longs # from Cornell as he put up 7 I believe, 4,3?
GOBIGRED
Joewillie78

Raw EGA was 4.90. uaEGA was 3.92 (very efficient performance). Great game for Long.

Thanks, yeah we need him to have another game like that tonight
GOBIGRED
Joewillie78

Here is the link to updated Bracketology with all of the weekend's games incorporated. Duke and Harvard are the 2 teams where the simulations seem to be farthest away from what the conventional wisdom says Selection Sunday will look like.

Updated list of Live Win Probability Links

- Mercer vs Richmond
- Canisius vs Monmouth
- Marquette vs Georgetown
- Boston U vs Loyola
- Towson vs Delaware
- Jacksonville vs VMI
- Rutgers vs Michigan
- Saint Joseph's vs LIU
- Marist vs Manhattan
- Navy vs Lafayette
- Sacred Heart vs Bryant
- UMBC vs UMass-Lowell
- Detroit vs Bellarmine
- Mount St Marys vs Wagner
- Yale vs Brown
- Providence vs Villanova
- Stony Brook vs Binghamton
- Cleveland State vs Air Force
- St. John's vs Denver
- Dartmouth vs Princeton
- Army vs Cornell
- Vermont vs Albany
- Robert Morris vs Utah
- Hobart vs Merrimack
- Drexel vs Hofstra
- St. Bonaventure vs Siena
- Harvard vs Penn
- Fairfield vs UMass
- Ohio State vs Maryland
- Syracuse vs North Carolina
- Lehigh vs Colgate
- Penn State vs Johns Hopkins
- Quinnipiac vs Virginia

Here is the Updated Bracketology.

In my book, the bubble right now is Brown, Ohio State, UNC, Notre Dame, and the lower of a BU/Army PL title game.

Here's what I submitted for my Top-20 this week. What do you think?

Brown too low after wins over Penn and Yale.

laxreference wrote: ↑Mon Apr 18, 2022 9:11 am Here's what I submitted for my Top-20 this week. What do you think?


lacrossereference_rankings_20220417_NCAAD1Men.jpg

IMO Cornell is way to high, as is UNC and Saint Joseph's. Brown should be near top 10

Cornell #3 even after the loss to Army? Surprising...