Yale 2023

[The Orfling]

Not that it was a very valuable exercise (!), but I think I've figured out that there's one scenario in which Yale beats Harvard but is still on the outside looking in for the Ivy League Tournament (if they lose to Harvard, it's straightforward). This would happen, I think, if there is a 3-way tie between Harvard (beats Princeton, loses to Yale to finish 3-3), Yale (beats Harvard to finish 3-3), and Princeton (loses to Harvard and Cornell to finish 3-3). In that scenario:

1. First you compare records among the three tied teams: all are 1-1 against the other two in this scenario.
2. Next you look at who has a win against the highest Ivy seed not in the group with the same records. In this scenario, Harvard would be deemed the "top seed" by dint of their victory over Cornell. They get a slot in the ILT and the #3 tournament seed.
3. Then the remaining two teams (Yale and Princeton) are compared head-to-head. Princeton wins that tiebreaker and gets the slot and the #4 seed.

This is if the tiebreaker rules are the same as last year, which I assume they would be (I cannot find them on the Ivy site for this year): https://www.collegelacrosse.net/post/me ... c-nec-2022

I think if there's a 4-way tie at 3-3 (Yale/Brown/Harvard/Cornell) it would go pretty deep into tiebreakers and get to goal differential.

So I will be rooting for Cornell, Penn, and Princeton to get to four wins, because Yale would have the tiebreaker vs. Brown or Harvard.

[The Orfling]

Good write-up in Inside Lacrosse of the win over Brown (has a lot of good quotations from Coach Shay): https://www.insidelacrosse.com/article/ ... rown/61196

Really impressed with IL's coverage of the college game in general.

[FannOLax]

...
So I will be rooting for Cornell, Penn, and Princeton to get to four wins, because Yale would have the tiebreaker vs. Brown or Harvard.

Well, I believe Cornell winning five is also good, provided Princeton beats Harvard to get to four wins. At the same time, with Syracuse having beat Princeton and more recently the Tar Heels, Cuse might grab an at-large bid, in which case I'm not convinced the Ivy gets more than the AQ (although I think Cornell looks strong for an at-large if the Big Red fails to win the ILT). I suppose Yale just needs to keep winning. Certainly the Elis have looked much better these last two games, and would have a decent chance in the Big Apple should they qualify for the ILT.

[The Orfling]

...
So I will be rooting for Cornell, Penn, and Princeton to get to four wins, because Yale would have the tiebreaker vs. Brown or Harvard.

Well, I believe Cornell winning five is also good, provided Princeton beats Harvard to get to four wins. At the same time, with Syracuse having beat Princeton and more recently the Tar Heels, Cuse might grab an at-large bid, in which case I'm not convinced the Ivy gets more than the AQ (although I think Cornell looks strong for an at-large if the Big Red fails to win the ILT). I suppose Yale just needs to keep winning. Certainly the Elis have looked much better these last two games, and would have a decent chance in the Big Apple should they qualify for the ILT.

All good points -- I should have said "at least four wins" for all of those teams. I agree there's a possibility the Ivy gets no at-large bid, but I'd love to see Yale get a spot in the tournament and see if they can get very very hot at the right time and try to snag the AQ as happened back in the day. But right now it all comes back to just keeping improving and trying to get wins in these last two games.

[FannOLax]

If Yale is to have any hope of getting an at-large NCAA bid, I think it must beat Albany tonight.

[The Orfling]

If Yale is to have any hope of getting an at-large NCAA bid, I think it must beat Albany tonight.

And they did so in convincing fashion. Now they will bring a 4 game winning streak in to next Saturday’s game vs. Harvard. For today, some scoreboard watching: wins by Cornell, Penn, and Princeton would be advantageous to Yale in forecasting tiebreaker scenarios, I believe.

[FannOLax]

In summarizing Yale's 2022 season, the esteemed Calourie noted that the Elis peaked around the Boston and Dartmouth games. This year's team has rallied heroically after hitting abject lows, and could be peaking at a more opportune time of the season (knock on wood).

[The Orfling]

In summarizing Yale's 2022 season, the esteemed Calourie noted that the Elis peaked around the Boston and Dartmouth games. This year's team has rallied heroically after hitting abject lows, and could be peaking at a more opportune time of the season (knock on wood).

As always, Calourie was spot on. There are different cadences to different seasons -- glad to see that Yale can "control its own destiny" for an ILT spot, and that the Elis seem to be playing stronger and more complete lacrosse going into that important game next week.

[FannOLax]

Yale at Harvard, Harvard v Yale: the winner keeps its season alive. Last year's clash, in front of a large and boisterous crowd in New Haven, was one for the ages, an overtime game settled by a Thomas Bragg man-up rocket from distance. This season, Harvard has beat Cornell in Cambridge, with the Crimson's other Ivy win coming in Providence over a Bruno team depleted by Noisegate suspensions.

Hats off to Jake Cohen, who must be this year's Eli Most Improved Player. Against Albany, he had two groundballs and a game-high three caused turnovers. The defense has clearly improved as a unit, while Paquette has been good all season.

Beat Harvard!!

[The Orfling]

The favorite Harvard-Yale Game t-shirt I saw as an undergrad: "Your Veritas Sux if it Ain't Got that Lux." No need for T-shirt slogans to get up for this year's game, though. Strong opponent, razor-thin win last year, an ILT spot on the line.

A couple of things to watch:

• Harvard's face-off performance has improved as they've seemingly transitioned more to their first-year FOGO, Barraco, these last several weeks: he went 50% against Penn (8 of 16) and 60% against Princeton (15 of 25). He also took 2 shots and scored a goal against Princeton. So Harvard's season-long 45% face-off percentage, a seeming area of vulnerability, may in fact not accurately reflect their potential to do very well at the X next week.

• Harvard's save percentage is below 50% on the year, but their goalie has three games (in which he faced a lot of shots) with a save percentage above 65%, the most recent of which was the Crimson's upset of Cornell in which Harvard's goalie had 16 saves vs. 8 goals allowed. So clearly a player/defense with a lot of upside.

[FannOLax]

For what it's worth, Quint ranks Yale at #10, with Cornell at #6 being the only Ivy ranked better.

"That’s four straight wins for Yale (7-4). This team is staying alive and trending in the right direction when so many others have bonked.

The Dogs finish the regular season at Harvard on Saturday April 29th. The winner advances to the Ivy League Tournament as the four seed. The loser is toast. Yale has a strong RPI and SOS."

https://laxallstars.com/quint-kessenich ... l-24-2023/

[FannOLax]

Inside Lacrosse article on Harvard-Yale lax rivalry gives incorrect Yale record: https://www.insidelacrosse.com/article/ ... alry/61170

[The Orfling]

Congratulations to the 2023 Yale Bulldogs, players and coaches alike, for today's win over Harvard, which kept alive Yale's streak of making every Ivy League tournament. Sort of a strange game -- Yale pounced early and then tried to (and did) "hold serve," resulting in a game with an unusually low-offense second half (3 goals on 11 shots, and only 2 and 10 if you don't count the empty netter). The big early Yale lead allowed the Elis to weather Harvard's great ride (held Yale to 80% on clears) and Harvard's aggressive defense (13 caused turnovers).

Great day on faceoffs (66% with Ramsey winning 18 of 27 and Mac Rodriguez scoring a big FOGO goal); for Paquette in net (16 saves, 59% on the day, and 6 huge first quarter saves); and for the attack (Leo, Lyons, and Brandau combined for 9 of Yale's 13 goals).

Main things to work on: clearing against an aggressive ride; decision-making when holding a lead late in the game (Yale's ball-carriers let themselves be trapped against the sideline or in the corner more than once; taking care of the ball a bit better (many of the turnovers were related to Harvard's good ride but Yale also went through a stretch of trying to force the ball inside and turned it over on multiple possessions).

On to Ithaca! Yale is playing much more complete lacrosse than when the teams met earlier in the season, but Cornell is, of course, formidable.

[joewillie78]

Great win by Yale. The first meeting with Cornell is meaningless now as Yale is playing much better than when they first met.
Should be a great game in NYC and good luck to Yale and The Big Red.

Gobigred
Joewillie78

[Ezra White]

On to Ithaca!

You may want to reconsider your geography.

Maybe this has something to do with Dartmouth being the only Ivy that still has a geography department. Even Cornell, whose motto -- "Any Person, Any Study" -- suggests otherwise, does not have Geography.

[FannOLax]

What a rollercoaster ride of a season this has been. The Elis are 1-1 v Cornell @ Columbia, beat the Big Red last year in Providence. The neutral site is a bit of a gift to Yale, and I'm really looking forward to Friday!

[Lax3]

With the results from today, including the RPI standings now, it seems that Yale might be in pretty good shape already to get an at-large bid. Not bad for a team with only one senior playing a meaningful role ...

https://www.insidelacrosse.com/article/ ... ment/61317

[The Orfling]

On to Ithaca!

You may want to reconsider your geography.

Maybe this has something to do with Dartmouth being the only Ivy that still has a geography department. Even Cornell, whose motto -- "Any Person, Any Study" -- suggests otherwise, does not have Geography.

Haha, you got me! I was a history major who didn't see the relevance of geography/maps until years later. I was so focused on Cornell as the #1 seed and hoping that the Elis can compete this time around (as I hope they can -- thanks for the upbeat prognosis, joewillie!) that I just forgot about the neutral site.

[The Orfling]

With the results from today, including the RPI standings now, it seems that Yale might be in pretty good shape already to get an at-large bid. Not bad for a team with only one senior playing a meaningful role ...

They are for sure in the mix. However, there's still a human element to the selection process. By analogy, in the media polls, for example, the bad losses to Princeton and Cornell really dragged Yale down. Despite a top 10 RPI and wins over 3 top 15 RPI teams (Denver, Villanova, BU), and the same number of losses as Denver and Villanova, Yale is ranked well below Denver and Villanova by USA Lax Magazine and Inside Lacrosse (Yale is also below Denver and Villanova in the coaches poll although closer to them). I know the selection process doesn't take polls into account, but the rankings show that despite good RPI numbers, a winning streak, and some solid wins, the hangover of being crushed by Cornell and Princeton has lasted.

My bottom line (but pretty random) prediction: if Yale beats Cornell, they'd definitely get an at-large bid. If they can hang with them and lose a close one, I think the chances are still pretty good. If they are blown out, I could see them as ending up "first one out." RPI doesn't care about margin of victory but human beings do, I believe.

[FannOLax]

Dare we speculate about what it would take to get an NCAA 1st round game at Reese? Winning the ILT I think would do it. Not sure what else might do the trick.