All Things Russia & Ukraine

[Farfromgeneva]

Buncha NeoCon claptrap and convenient half-truths made up in an attempt to put Russia in the best light possible. This hack wants to complain about the DEMOCRATIC "overthrow" of a Soviet Puppet government?

Neville Chamberlain-like appeasement of the Putin authoritarian regime...a bunch of lame excuses why we should humor the Russian dictator.

Yep, NeoCon claptrap.

..

I'm certainly no apologist for Putin or the neoCONs. But my question is, if appeasement of imperialist Bush was tolerable for 20 years, shouldn't the world take the same policy in handling of Putin? Both power hungry, no doubt about that. But at least Putin's actions were an internal matter. When President Puigdemont declared freedom for Catalonia the world looked the other way as Madrid invaded with Falangist troops. Putin makes the same claims Madrid did -- that it was an internal affair which did not merit foreign intervention. By contrast traitor Bush sent troops overseas and lied about his real reasons. Yet, again, the world looked the other way.

So why should the world intervene now when it was indifferent to the claims made by Afghanistan, Iraq, and Catalonia?

I see your position but making comparisons like this is going to get you Pete Brown treatment eventually. If you care.

Just a sec, Pal. As always, I am asking for people to take a consistent position in their principles like I do. How or why is that so troubling to you?

Your framing of positions creates a ton of assumptions you present as fact and are, at best, a semi reasonable interpretation but not fact.

You don’t know nearly enough about Bush to declare “he’s power hungry” at all. I think he was some things and flawed surely but that’s an interpretation I think is way off base. That’s one example. You embed these all over and claim fact and incontrovertible things that are no such thing. Cool your principle is consistent but your interpretations are not facts and the nature of your statements to turn around and complain I attacked you while doing the same thing are PB territory.

To suggest Putin’s claims are equal to others is crazy specious yet again presented as hard truth. Either you’re so literal as to be wildly obtuse or intentionally presenting these things in a manner of heuristic that’s very similar to homeboy down under. I hope you understand the concept of a dynamic model and that variables exist. But you don’t present arguments as if you do.

[Farfromgeneva]

So intentions and actions are equal? I don’t understand-we have actions on his part but it seems like you give him a pass even when he caused death in the name of international relations from his specific seat. Or do you view them as equal?

I’m starting with a relative extreme to see if you even want to try to consider a spectrum or just think in binary terms.

This question has been posed repeatedly and I have given you and others the same answer which remains unchanged: I continue to condemn ALL foreign war. Obama does not get a pass from me just because he's a Democrat. Recall that I condemned Johnson's role in the Vietnam war and Carter's return of draft registration. As for Obama, again, he TRIED to end the war but your Republicans refused to allow it. In your case, you give them a free pass but I condemn them for their treason and profit seeking warmongering.

Farfromgeneva
Kind of childish and a caricature of a person.

You have been told by the Admin to refrain for any form of mischaracterization. Kindly do so at once.

Here’s an example - accusing me of giving anyone a free pass based on nothing Substantiative then turning around and begging for me to refrain from what, mischaracterization? Allow me to do my best Trips: HYPOCRITE!

And by your standards you are giving Obama a pass because he “tried but the mean republicans wouldn’t allow him”. Have you had any leadership roles of consequence at any level in your life?

[a fan]

I think the notion that Putin is a master strategist has flown the coop.

And we are just a few days in.

I REALLY hope you are right on this one. A lot of people are gonna die to prove it.

Oh I'm right.....but unfortunately, the fact that Putin is a short sighted clown will have nothing to do with the body count.

I'm more worried about what he'll do when he's cornered, and decides to throw a tantrum.

[a fan]

I think the notion that Putin is a master strategist has flown the coop.

And we are just a few days in.

I REALLY hope you are right on this one. A lot of people are gonna die to prove it.

Oh I'm right.....but unfortunately, the fact that Putin is a short sighted clown will have nothing to do with the body count.

I'm more worried about what he'll do when he's cornered, and decides to throw a tantrum.

More of Putin's chess brilliance....

Videos from Russia showed long lines of Russians trying to withdraw cash from ATMs, while the Russian Central Bank issued a statement calling for calm, in an effort to avoid bank runs. Reports also showed that Visa and Mastercard were no longer being accepted for those with international bank accounts.

“Banks and credit card companies dealing with Russia are going into lock down mode given the fast pace and increasing bite of the sanctions,” said Amanda DeBusk, a partner with Dechert LLP.

Russia may have to temporarily close bank branches or declare a national bank holiday to protect its financial system, analysts said.

“If there’s a full-scale banking panic, that’s a driver of crisis in its own right,” said Adam Tooze, a professor of history at Columbia University and Director of the European Institute. “A rush into dollars by the Russian general population moves things into an entirely new domain of financial warfare.”



https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/in-r ... apzcWiQSvI

[Typical Lax Dad]

Putin playing ping pong….take your pick.

[Peter Brown]

I think the notion that Putin is a master strategist has flown the coop.

And we are just a few days in.

I REALLY hope you are right on this one. A lot of people are gonna die to prove it.

Oh I'm right.....but unfortunately, the fact that Putin is a short sighted clown will have nothing to do with the body count.

I'm more worried about what he'll do when he's cornered, and decides to throw a tantrum.

That’s precisely what you should be worried about, and what very few are taking into account as they cheer the ruble’s rout. If Putin and Russia are cut off from the world, what do they have to lose by going totally rogue? Russia is a massive country, and the leaders could hide away in interior lands far away from nuclear fallout. That isn’t so true for America.

Were I Biden, I’d call Putin tonight and ask to send Blinken over now, arriving at the Kremlin at 8 am. Obama traded $400 million cash to Iran, arguably a worse regime than Putin’s, in exchange for 4 prisoners. We can’t negotiate with Russia today?

You’d think a sensible administration would get in front of a potential nuclear war.

[Typical Lax Dad]

I think the notion that Putin is a master strategist has flown the coop.

And we are just a few days in.

I REALLY hope you are right on this one. A lot of people are gonna die to prove it.

Oh I'm right.....but unfortunately, the fact that Putin is a short sighted clown will have nothing to do with the body count.

I'm more worried about what he'll do when he's cornered, and decides to throw a tantrum.

That’s precisely what you should be worried about, and what very few are taking into account as they cheer the ruble’s rout. If Putin and Russia are cut off from the world, what do they have to lose by going totally rogue? Russia is a massive country, and the leaders could hide away in interior lands far away from nuclear fallout. That isn’t so true for America.

Were I Biden, I’d call Putin tonight and ask to send Blinken over now, arriving at the Kremlin at 8 am. Obama traded $400 million cash to Iran, arguably a worse regime than Putin’s, in exchange for 4 prisoners. We can’t negotiate with Russia today?

You’d think a sensible administration would get in front of a potential nuclear war.

Einstein!!

[old salt]

some limited good news :

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national ... ke-island/

Ukrainian border guards may have survived reported last stand on Snake Island

Ukrainian border guards who insulted Russian forces this week in a recorded exchange that went viral may not have been killed, Ukrainian officials said Saturday, contradicting an earlier claim by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

The State Border Guard Service of Ukraine said in a statement posted to its Facebook page that the guards may be alive, after Russian media reported that they were taken as prisoners from their base on Snake Island in the Black Sea to Sevastopol, a port city that Russia controls on the Crimean Peninsula.

Zelensky cited the guards’ story Thursday while highlighting Ukrainian resistance to a Russian invasion, saying that 13 guards had “died heroically.” He said he would recognize each with the title Hero of Ukraine.

The guards’ actions drew international attention after an audio recording of their encounter with the Russians was published on the website of the Ukrainian news outlet Ukrayinska Pravda. A Ukrainian official confirmed its authenticity to The Washington Post on Thursday.

In the clip, a Russian voice warns the border guards that they will be attacked if they do not give up.
“I am a Russian warship,” a voice from the invaders says. “I ask you to lay down your arms and surrender to avoid bloodshed and unnecessary deaths. Otherwise, you will be bombed.”
The Ukrainians responded boldly before they were attacked.
“Russian warship,” came the reply, “go f--- yourself.”

Ukrainian officials said in the Facebook post Saturday that the border guards were attacked by both Russian aircraft and weapons from the ship, and that Ukrainian officials lost communication with the guards after infrastructure was destroyed. It now appears it was assumed the guards were killed.

Ukrainian officials said Saturday that they were working to determine what happened to the guards and praised them for digging in. It was not clear how many guards were on the island when the attack began or if any were killed.

The border guards’ message for the Russians spread rapidly, with many comparing it to famous rallying cries from earlier wars. ...compared it to “NUTS!” a response that U.S. Army sent to Nazi forces who sought an American surrender during the Battle of Bastogne in World War II.

The Kyiv Post reported Saturday that the message for the Russian ship appeared on a digital road sign hanging over a Ukrainian highway.

[Typical Lax Dad]

some limited good news :

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national ... ke-island/

Ukrainian border guards may have survived reported last stand on Snake Island

Ukrainian border guards who insulted Russian forces this week in a recorded exchange that went viral may not have been killed, Ukrainian officials said Saturday, contradicting an earlier claim by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

The State Border Guard Service of Ukraine said in a statement posted to its Facebook page that the guards may be alive, after Russian media reported that they were taken as prisoners from their base on Snake Island in the Black Sea to Sevastopol, a port city that Russia controls on the Crimean Peninsula.

Zelensky cited the guards’ story Thursday while highlighting Ukrainian resistance to a Russian invasion, saying that 13 guards had “died heroically.” He said he would recognize each with the title Hero of Ukraine.

The guards’ actions drew international attention after an audio recording of their encounter with the Russians was published on the website of the Ukrainian news outlet Ukrayinska Pravda. A Ukrainian official confirmed its authenticity to The Washington Post on Thursday.

In the clip, a Russian voice warns the border guards that they will be attacked if they do not give up.
“I am a Russian warship,” a voice from the invaders says. “I ask you to lay down your arms and surrender to avoid bloodshed and unnecessary deaths. Otherwise, you will be bombed.”
The Ukrainians responded boldly before they were attacked.
“Russian warship,” came the reply, “go f--- yourself.”

Ukrainian officials said in the Facebook post Saturday that the border guards were attacked by both Russian aircraft and weapons from the ship, and that Ukrainian officials lost communication with the guards after infrastructure was destroyed. It now appears it was assumed the guards were killed.

Ukrainian officials said Saturday that they were working to determine what happened to the guards and praised them for digging in. It was not clear how many guards were on the island when the attack began or if any were killed.

The border guards’ message for the Russians spread rapidly, with many comparing it to famous rallying cries from earlier wars. ...compared it to “NUTS!” a response that U.S. Army sent to Nazi forces who sought an American surrender during the Battle of Bastogne in World War II.

The Kyiv Post reported Saturday that the message for the Russian ship appeared on a digital road sign hanging over a Ukrainian highway.

Fog of war stuff.

[Brooklyn]

Your framing of positions creates a ton of assumptions you present as fact and are, at best, a semi reasonable interpretation but not fact.

You don’t know nearly enough about Bush to declare “he’s power hungry” at all. I think he was some things and flawed surely but that’s an interpretation I think is way off base. That’s one example. You embed these all over and claim fact and incontrovertible things that are no such thing. Cool your principle is consistent but your interpretations are not facts and the nature of your statements to turn around and complain I attacked you while doing the same thing are PB territory.

To suggest Putin’s claims are equal to others is crazy specious yet again presented as hard truth. Either you’re so literal as to be wildly obtuse or intentionally presenting these things in a manner of heuristic that’s very similar to homeboy down under. I hope you understand the concept of a dynamic model and that variables exist. But you don’t present arguments as if you do.

Are your claims "fact" or truth?

Bush not power hungry??

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uvUEsm0 ... atlmcm1900

Freudian slip, I suppose. Patriot {sic} Act ring a bell? Even conservatives such as Larry Pratt, James Sensenbrenner, and Bob Barr said it was unAmerican. Oh, in case you forgot it was Bush who pushed for it.


'Putin's claims equal to others.' Depends, his views on Donbas are valid as that is a Russian region. If the people vote on a referendum for freedom from Ukraine then it is as valid as Ukraine breaking away from the Russian Federation. And again, if you want to condemn Putin for having soldiers cross the border, then to be consistent you need to do the same with Madrid when it invaded Catalonia. It's just a matter of consistency in the application of principles which is something you right wingers fail to do so often. That's the truth and no amount of tears will change that.

[Brooklyn]

Good news!


Here's How Americans Can Sign Up to Fight in Ukraine Against the Russians


https://www.newsweek.com/heres-how-amer ... ns-1683068


The United States may not send troops into Ukraine during the war against Russia, but it doesn't mean Americans can't join the fight in Ukraine. Officials in the U.S. have stated the Ukrainian military has done a stellar job at holding off Russian forces so far, but this could be a long war, and Ukraine is asking for help from foreign allies.

"The International Legion of Territorial Defense of Ukraine" was created by Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky to help strengthen the fight against the Russian invasion.

A senior U.S. defense official told the Associated Press on Sunday that the Russians have been slowed down and frustrated.

"They have been stymied, and they have been resisted by Ukrainians, and to some degree, they've done it to themselves in terms of their fuel and logistics and sustainment problems," the official told AP. "But as I said earlier, we would expect them to learn from these issues and adapt to them and try to overcome them. So I think we all need to be very sober here. in recognizing that this is combat, and combat is ugly, it's messy, it's bloody, and it's not wholly predictable."


Many veterans contacted the Military Times news service, asking how they can join the fight. Here are six things needed before veterans and everyday Americans can join the fight in Ukraine.

Contact the Ukrainian embassy in Washington, D.C., to let them know your intentions to join the International Legion of Territorial Defense of Ukraine. If you can't visit the embassy in person, then you can call or email. Here is the contact information for the U>S. embassy. Here's the list of international embassies for Ukraine.
Gather important documents. These include an ID, passport to travel internationally, any military service records, work with law enforcement agencies, or combat history.
Bring documents to the interview. These are necessary for all in-person interviews.
Write an application for enlistment. This is for an enlistment in the Ukrainian campaign against Russia. This serves as an addendum to the first step.


Get your instructions on how to get to Ukraine and what to bring.

Recommended items would include: Military clothing, helmet, body armor, vests, belts, and equipment like combat gloves, tactical glasses, and more.
Be organized. Ukrainian officials and consuls will help guide you into the country. Contacts for them would be provided at the embassy, whether it's in Washington or whatever country you're applying from. Here's the full list of Ukrainian embassies and consulates.

Russia began an attack on Ukraine late last week, and it has carried through the weekend and into Monday morning in Eastern Europe. Though Ukraine has fought vigilantly to protect their land, Russia has an overwhelming amount of forces that can still enter the country.

Ukraine has ordered all men its country to stay and fight, and police departments have handed out weapons to those staying to fight.




For those who want a fight, here's your chance to be a hero. Time to walk the walk ...

[old salt]

Catching up on my dvr : on Fri, on Morning Joe, Alex Vindman said NATO troops should have been deployed in W Ukraine before the invasion.
He said they should not have been US troops, that would have been too provocative to Putin.

That begs the question -- which other NATO country would have volunteered to deploy troops inside Ukraine before the invasion ?

[DocBarrister]

I think the notion that Putin is a master strategist has flown the coop.

And we are just a few days in.

I REALLY hope you are right on this one. A lot of people are gonna die to prove it.

Oh I'm right.....but unfortunately, the fact that Putin is a short sighted clown will have nothing to do with the body count.

I'm more worried about what he'll do when he's cornered, and decides to throw a tantrum.

That’s precisely what you should be worried about, and what very few are taking into account as they cheer the ruble’s rout. If Putin and Russia are cut off from the world, what do they have to lose by going totally rogue? Russia is a massive country, and the leaders could hide away in interior lands far away from nuclear fallout. That isn’t so true for America.

Were I Biden, I’d call Putin tonight and ask to send Blinken over now, arriving at the Kremlin at 8 am. Obama traded $400 million cash to Iran, arguably a worse regime than Putin’s, in exchange for 4 prisoners. We can’t negotiate with Russia today?

You’d think a sensible administration would get in front of a potential nuclear war.

The Russian military will eliminate Putin before they follow any orders from him launching a nuclear strike.

DocBarrister

[old salt]

This is a watershed event for NATO :

https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-war-res ... 1645991750

Mr. Scholz announced the imminent investment of roughly $113 billion in new weapons systems, including....U.S. F-35 warplanes,...

The decision to buy F-35s is notable because Germany has long preferred European defense-industry collaboration for big-ticket defense programs. The German air force’s most current modern plane, the Eurofighter Typhoon, is a four-country effort including the U.K.; the left wings are built in Italy, and the right wings are built in Spain.

Nothing has illustrated EUroburgher fecklessness more than Germany's dithering on replacing their obsolete Toronado fighters which are barely airworthy. They're critical because they fill Germany's requirement to NATO nuclear deterrence because they are certified to carry US B-61 tactical nuc bombs. None of the non-US made replacement candidates are so certified. For this reason, the Germans were considering US made Boeing F-18's, which are much more vulnerable than non stealth aircraft like the F-35. This will likely lead to USAF F-16's permanently based at Spangdahlem air base in Germany being replaced by permanently based USAF F-35's. This will be a huge upgrade to NATO's collective air capability.

Having this many F-35's based in Europe, capable of delivering the B-61 is significant.
We have B-61's stored in Germany, Italy, Belgium, the Netherlands & Turkey. All except Turkey (for now) are acquiring the F-35.
https://www.airforcemag.com/f-35-comple ... s-weapons/
Thank You Vlad.

[old salt]

Russia makes contingency plans to ensure gas flow to the Kaliningrad enclave :

https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-sen ... 1645928330

Russia Sends Natural-Gas Tankers to Kaliningrad Outpost Behind NATO Lines

Stationing LNG ships in the Baltic amid Ukraine fighting indicates Moscow is poised for wider disruption to European energy supplies

Russia holds most of the cards when it comes to energy in Europe. But in a territory that it controls behind NATO lines, Moscow is taking extreme measures to shore up supplies as the war in Ukraine rages.

In recent weeks Russia has steamed in three massive sea vessels carrying natural gas close to Kaliningrad, its bolthold on the Baltic Sea wedged between North Atlantic Treaty Organization members Poland and Lithuania. It is an apparent move to maintain fuel supplies to the tiny militarized region in case conflict severs pipeline flows.

The Energy Integrity and Velikiy Novgorod tankers are circling in the Baltic Sea and are expected to deliver gas to Kaliningrad in the coming weeks, ... Russia’s state gas giant Gazprom PJSC is in control of both boats, having taken them out on charter,

Gazprom stationed a third vessel, the Marshal Vasilevskiy, off the coast of Kaliningrad in late January. Launched with fanfare by President Vladimir Putin in 2019, the vessel is currently storing LNG, ...It also can act as an import terminal, converting LNG from tankers such as the Integrity and Novgorod into gaseous form.

Between the three vessels, Russia has enough LNG to meet Kaliningrad’s gas needs for four to five weeks...

Stationing LNG ships in the Baltic adds to evidence that Moscow is steeling itself for wider disruption to European energy supplies, say analysts and officials in Lithuania, which borders Kaliningrad.

“This is a clear sign that Russia is preparing,” ...If Russia responded to Western sanctions by cutting off gas supplies to Germany and the rest of Europe, the gas flow to Kaliningrad would stop,....

The Soviet Union captured Kaliningrad from the Nazi army in 1945. ...the tiny Kaliningrad oblast remained part of Russia after the Soviet Union collapsed. It isn’t expected to play a role in the Russian invasion of Ukraine. However, Kaliningrad has huge strategic significance for Moscow. It is home to the Baltic Fleet of the Russian Navy among other personnel and advanced military equipment.

A key consideration for Western officials ratcheting up sanctions against Moscow has been to ensure gas keeps heading to Europe as tensions rise. Russia, with its massive reserves of crude, coal and gas, has few such concerns. But Kaliningrad is a weak point in terms of energy security.

The exclave gets almost all of its gas from a Gazprom pipeline that runs through Lithuania and Belarus. Flows through that pipe would stall if Russia cut gas supplies to Lithuania. Alternatively, Lithuania might respond to the invasion of Ukraine by interrupting supplies to Kaliningrad...

As Russia ordered troops to two breakaway regions in Ukraine, Germany halted the certification of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. Uncertainty over the project, which would allow Russia to bypass Ukraine to export natural gas to Europe, is affecting prices.

Russia began preparing back in January, when Marshall Islands-flagged Energy Integrity loaded up with LNG in gas-rich Cameroon on the west coast of Africa on Jan. 18, ...At the time, the U.S. was stepping up warnings Russia could invade Ukraine

Gazprom has a deal to buy all the LNG from Cameroon’s floating Hilli Episeyo terminal, which in geographical terms is twice the distance from Kaliningrad as an LNG export terminal in Russia’s Arctic Yamal peninsula, which is majority-owned by a different Russian firm, Novatek. Almost half of that Cameroonian gas over the past two years has been delivered to China and just two of 58 cargoes delivered to Europe—both to Turkey—according to Vortexa, highlighting the unusual nature of the Integrity’s current position.

In late January, the Gazprom-owned Marshal Vasilevskiy took up position at Kaliningrad. ...the vessel was designed to bolster energy supplies to the oblast.

“It is hard to overestimate the importance of this terminal for the region’s energy security,” Mr. Putin said at a launch event in Kaliningrad in January 2019.
Until this year, however, the Vasilevskiy has been used as an LNG carrier instead of as an import terminal.
Mostly, it has shuttled LNG from Russia’s far-north Yamal peninsula to Asia.

The Velikiy Novgorod followed the Integrity in filling up on LNG from Cameroon on Feb. 6, said Ms. Page. Both ships headed up the west Coast of Africa, past Portugal, Spain and northwest Europe and into the Baltic, where they still hovered Saturday.

Energy plays a key role in relations between Russia and the Baltic states, which have Soviet-era ties to the Russian power grid but are now members of the European Union and NATO. Backed by the EU, Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia are trying to decouple their power systems from Russia’s and connect to the continental European grid by 2025.

Maintaining gas and power supplies in Kaliningrad, meanwhile, is vital for the Kremlin...
Alongside the Baltic Fleet, Kaliningrad hosts motor rifle and aviation formations fielding helicopters and jet fighters, advanced antiaircraft and antiship missiles, tanks and self-propelled artillery...
“It basically means that they have a naval and air base and air defense site in the center of NATO which creates massive problems for NATO’s ability to reinforce the Baltic,”

[old salt]

an explanation of Russia's tactical restraint, so far.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-stu ... 1646000303

Initial setbacks spur fears that Russians will step up firepower

The Russian military has faltered early in its invasion of Ukraine, as stiff resistance threatens to turn Moscow’s hopes for a swift victory into a protracted and costly war...

The Kremlin’s ongoing invasion represents the most formidable challenge for the Russian military since it was modernized under Gen. Valery Gerasimov, Russia’s top military officer who was appointed to his post in 2012. Yet no Ukrainian cities have been taken by the Russian military. Some of the Ukrainian Air Force and air defenses are still intact.

Western officials and analysts say that Russia’s strategy had been based on the premise that an initial barrage of missile strikes and a thrust toward Ukraine’s capital would bring about the quick collapse of President Volodymyr Zelensky’s government. Mr. Zelensky, however, remains defiant while facing long odds.

The Russian military has a prodigious array of artillery, rockets and air power. Employing these weapons, however, would only further antagonize the population that Moscow is hoping to draw into its sphere of influence and make it harder for the Kremlin to control a country of 44 million.

Since the start of the conflict, Russia has fired more than 320 missiles. Its ground forces have advanced from Belarus to within 30 kilometers of Kyiv’s city center. Russian forces have also moved swiftly from their bases in Crimea and carried out a rare amphibious landing from the Sea of Azov.

Now, the Pentagon says there are signs that Russia is resorting to more firepower, including rockets, in its attempt to take Chernihiv, a city 150 kilometers northeast of Kyiv.

Mick Ryan, a retired Australian Army major general who has studied advanced warfare, says Russia’s failure so far to achieve decisive gains and its potential depletion of precision-munition supplies “probably will force them to use older weapons that are less precise and more deadly.”
“In the next 72 hours I expect greater lethality on the battlefield,” he added.

Western analysts say that there are few parallels between Russia’s approach so far in Ukraine and how it would face off against a NATO force, where mass firepower would be used from the outset and the potential use of nuclear weapons could also be threatened.

The Russian military has improved considerably since its wars to subdue insurgents in Chechnya, which lasted until 2000, and intervention eight years later in Georgia, which succeeded in securing two breakaway regions.

Russia’s operations since then had been limited and sometimes were carried out in areas where there was a reservoir of support. In 2014, the Russians quietly infiltrated Crimea with special forces, naval infantry and intelligence operatives and secured the peninsula with nary a shot. That same year, Russia intervened in the Donbas region in southeast Ukraine and marshaled a proxy force of separatists.

Russia’s 2015 intervention in Syria to buttress Syrian President Bashar al-Assad showcased its air power and long-range missile capability. In contrast to the invasion of Ukraine, however, the Syria operation didn’t include the deployment of a large number of Russian ground forces or combat against an organized army.

“This isn’t the small, handpicked Syria task force that was lavished with support and made relatively few mistakes,” said Dara Massicot, an expert on the Russian military at the Rand Corporation, referring to Russia’s attack on Ukraine. “A force of this size is too large to hide readiness and personnel problems within the Russian military.”

The longstanding U.S. policy of modulating the supply of arms to Ukraine so as not to provoke Russia has also affected the country’s military capability. Stinger antiaircraft systems weren’t sent to Ukraine until January when the Biden administration approved a request by Latvia and Lithuania to provide the U.S.-made systems from their arsenals. The U.S. has since opted to send antiaircraft missiles from its own inventory. Experts say, however, that it takes time to distribute the weapons and train Ukrainian forces in how to use them. The U.S. hasn’t outfitted the Ukrainians with antiship missiles.

The Ukrainian forces have benefited from the U.S., British and other allied training, however, as well as U.S. intelligence about Russia military moves. The Ukrainians have also been adept at moving their surface-to-air systems and turning them off at times to make them harder to be targeted by the Russians, Western analysts say. As a result, Russia has yet to achieve air superiority in the country.

A senior U.S. defense official said Sunday that the Russians have been frustrated by the slow pace of their offensive but will try to adjust their strategy and tactics in the face of setbacks. “To some degree, they’ve done it to themselves in terms of their fuel and logistics and sustainment,” the official said. “We would expect them to learn from these issues and adapt to them and try to overcome them.”

Russia still retains advantages in personnel and equipment, though movement could now be more difficult than before since bridges have been destroyed and the Ukrainians have had time to better prepare defenses.

The course of the conflict, analysts say, will now turn on whether Ukraine can hold Kyiv and what kind of guerrilla battle the Ukrainians can maintain in the longer run.

Jack Watling, an expert on land warfare at the Royal United Services Institute, a British defense think tank, says that his analysis before Russia’s invasion had been that Ukraine’s conventional forces would hold out for 10 days before shifting to more unconventional resistance warfare.

Previous conflicts, Mr. Watling said, have shown that “the Russians always take more military losses than they should.” But a question is how much public support Mr. Putin will have at home, as the war drags on and Russian soldiers die.

Moscow’s hope, he said, had been to avoid this prospect by planning a “shock and awe” demonstration that involved rapid advances and the seizure of a few key objectives in the hope the Zelensky government would quickly surrender or flee.

“That failed,” he said.

[old salt]

Replacement fighter jets to be among weapons provided to Ukraine by EU :

i'm guessing Mig 29's from Poland & Bulgaria. I don't think any NATO members still have the S-27 or SU-25.

Since it's the EU, Sweden is sending 5,000 anti-tank weapons.

https://www.axios.com/eu-weapons-ukrain ... 95619.html

[old salt]

Do you know what will happen to Kiev if Zellinsky & his govt & military forces don't relocate to the west of the country & declare Kyiv an open city?

How about you spell the man's name correctly. He has earned much more than that.

I'm workin' on it, ... sticky [L] key. I got it right most of the time, like in the following sentence (which you did not quote).
Do you think it should have 2 Y's ? I've seen it that way on FNC.

Most of the time the second Y is dropped. But not 2 Ls and it's an e not an I. You keep misspelling it, though it varies how you do so.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volodymyr_Zelenskyy

other than the stuck key 2nd L, how do I misspell it ? Several news sources used just 1 L.

E not I.

Zelensky. Or with a second y.

I'm not accusing you of doing it on purpose.

Roger that. No disrespect was intended. Aaron Zelinsky was stuck in my head from the Roger Stone case.

Check out how the Brussels correspondent for Politico spells it.

https://www.politico.eu/article/court-d ... ason-case/

obtw -- he's a Dartmouth man.

[old salt]

On Meet the Press -- Jeremy Bash, foaming at the mouth, rhapsodizing about supporting a protracted Ukrainian insurgency, as an opportunity to deliver a fatal blow to Russia's ambitions on the global change. Calling it a sequel to Charlie Wilson's war, shoot Russian aircraft out of the sky, open up their tanks like can openers & KILL RUSSIANS. He's even more cavalier about escalating an exchange of tac nucs...sick, it's just a video game or movie to these propeller heads.

@ 02:58

[Farfromgeneva]

I think the notion that Putin is a master strategist has flown the coop.

And we are just a few days in.

I REALLY hope you are right on this one. A lot of people are gonna die to prove it.

Oh I'm right.....but unfortunately, the fact that Putin is a short sighted clown will have nothing to do with the body count.

I'm more worried about what he'll do when he's cornered, and decides to throw a tantrum.

More of Putin's chess brilliance....

Videos from Russia showed long lines of Russians trying to withdraw cash from ATMs, while the Russian Central Bank issued a statement calling for calm, in an effort to avoid bank runs. Reports also showed that Visa and Mastercard were no longer being accepted for those with international bank accounts.

“Banks and credit card companies dealing with Russia are going into lock down mode given the fast pace and increasing bite of the sanctions,” said Amanda DeBusk, a partner with Dechert LLP.

Russia may have to temporarily close bank branches or declare a national bank holiday to protect its financial system, analysts said.

“If there’s a full-scale banking panic, that’s a driver of crisis in its own right,” said Adam Tooze, a professor of history at Columbia University and Director of the European Institute. “A rush into dollars by the Russian general population moves things into an entirely new domain of financial warfare.”



https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/in-r ... apzcWiQSvI

The exchange rate is now less than 1 cent for a ruble (100 rubles/dollar). Was 1.5 cents/dollar not that long ago so large delta in short period-Zimbabwe/Venezuela level inflation.

https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/fx/RUBUSD