OCanada wrote: ↑Mon Jul 08, 2024 5:18 pm
Where is Trump?
The race is a toss up per the polls. The lines are very clear. I don’t see much actual movement between candidates happening.
I am wondering if Trump is being cloaked as much ss possible. He is deteriorating
Until tonight where he gets interviewed by Sean Hannity (and likely done earlier today and edited as is usual for Hannity and Fox) Trump has been essentially MIA for over a week.
He wont do an interview like Biden did at a more mainstream outlet like ABC, and has not held a press conference in ages. There is plenty of documentation on his slippage mentally, but because everyone expects the crazy, the media for the most part will not report on it because it is "old news" so to speak.
The biggest thing Trump has going for him, is "rabbit heart" and "chicken sh*t" democrats shooting their own candidate in the back!
The biggest thing Trump has going for him is that Trump has been ahead, still is ahead, and is increasing his lead.
The data for Biden is bad. And getting worse.
The RCP Poll average today is Trump +3.4%. On June 18, it was only Trump +0.5%. Biden has trailed Trump every single day in the RCP average for 10 months solid. In 2020, Biden was ahead for 12 solid months before election day. In July 2020, Joe was +9 points over Trump!!!!
To win the EC, Biden needs to win the popular vote by at least 2 points minimum. In 2020, Biden won by 4.4 points, but it was quite close in the EC.
[FYI, Silver's famous model is no longer owned and operated by 538. Silver's model can be found at NateSilver.net. 538 is now using a completely different model.]
The new 538 does have it 51/49 Trump. Consider that the new 538 model is new and perhaps an outlier. Regardless, 538 had it 62/38 Biden back in April. So the trend is clearly and consistently towards Trump.
RCP's betting odds say Trump 57%, Biden 18% and Harris 11%. Bettors had the Trump/Biden race even on May 1.
Who knows if anyone else would have a better chance than Joe. But despite Trump's felony conviction, Biden's numbers have been sliding for months. And have continued to slide since the debate face plant. Trump is less popular in 2024 than he was in 2020. Unfortunately, Biden is MUCH less popular than he was in 2020.
Re: 2024
Posted: Tue Jul 09, 2024 2:58 am
by old salt
OCanada wrote: ↑Mon Jul 08, 2024 5:18 pm
Where is Trump?
The race is a toss up per the polls. The lines are very clear. I don’t see much actual movement between candidates happening.
I am wondering if Trump is being cloaked as much ss possible. He is deteriorating
Dream on. Why stick your head up & distract when your opponent is self-destructing ?
Did you forget Biden's 2020 basement campaign ?
Trump will dominate the media again when the convention starts next week.
You can then obsess again over his every hyperbolic exaggeration & overstatement.
Re: 2024
Posted: Tue Jul 09, 2024 3:05 am
by old salt
Nobody loves the elites anymore.
Should make for a fun DNC convention.
Time for the Dem firing squad to circle up again.
Biden slams "elites," dares critics to challenge him at Democratic convention
by Erin Doherty
A defiant President Biden expressed frustration Monday at Democratic "elites" who have called for him to drop out of the race, daring critics to "challenge [him]" at next month's Democratic convention in Chicago.
Why it matters: Ahead of a pivotal week to prove his skeptics wrong, Biden called into MSNBC's "Morning Joe" to reinforce a simple message: He's not going anywhere.
What they're saying: "If any of these guys don't think I should run, run against me. Go ahead. Announce for president — challenge me at the convention," an animated Biden told his favorite cable news program.
"It drives me nuts people are talking about this," Biden said Monday of the discourse following his debate performance.
"The bottom line here is, we're not going anywhere. I'm not going anywhere," Biden said.
Biden's "Morning Joe" interview came just after he sent a letter to congressional Democrats telling them that it's time to "end" the pressure on him drop out.
"I wouldn't be running again if I did not absolutely believe I was the best person to beat Donald Trump in 2024," Biden wrote in the letter to lawmakers.
Reality check: Biden is the presumptive nominee because he won a majority of delegates during the Democratic primary. If he doesn't release his delegates, it's exceedingly difficult to imagine how a challenger could defeat him.
Biden’s Survival Plan: Decry ‘Elite’ Critics, Appeal to His Base
Black voters and organized labor have been the president’s key backers and they’re going to have to carry him now.
Biden’s Survival Plan: Decry ‘Elite’ Critics, Appeal to His Base
Black voters and organized labor have been the president’s key backers and they’re going to have to carry him now.
I think the organized labor base has eroded...sure the International Orgs are always pro-D, but the men and woman working, the dues paying folks are not so much anymore. I think the D-base has worked to appeal to the AOC/Bernie base to garner that demo, pushing the Moderate D party further left. Similarly, how the R party is slipping further right.
Biden’s Survival Plan: Decry ‘Elite’ Critics, Appeal to His Base
Black voters and organized labor have been the president’s key backers and they’re going to have to carry him now.
I think the organized labor base has eroded...sure the International Orgs are always pro-D, but the men and woman working, the dues paying folks are not so much anymore. I think the D-base has worked to appeal to the AOC/Bernie base to garner that demo, pushing the Moderate D party further left. Similarly, how the R party is slipping further right.
The divisiveness is destroying us.
Curious what policies are D's pushing that are further left than they were 20 or 40 years ago? Gay marriage and gender rights maybe...
OCanada wrote: ↑Mon Jul 08, 2024 5:18 pm
Where is Trump?
The race is a toss up per the polls. The lines are very clear. I don’t see much actual movement between candidates happening.
I am wondering if Trump is being cloaked as much ss possible. He is deteriorating
Dream on. Why stick your head up & distract when your opponent is self-destructing ?
Did you forget Biden's 2020 basement campaign ?
Trump will dominate the media again when the convention starts next week.
You can then obsess again over his every hyperbolic exaggeration & overstatement.
You mean obsess over his lies, bad history, false claims of achievements, taking of charitable donations intended for kids cancer, defrauding of Trump U students, abuse of women, bankruptcies, laundering money, ties to the Genovese Crime family, ties to Mafiya, saluting North Korean generals. actions taken that further Putin’s interests, channeling public funds to his companies, violating numerous federal laws, buying a teen beauty peagent sonhe could walk into dressing rooms, flying young woman from eastern Europe to NY for parties with wealthy men. There are currently three candidates for President. Two of them appear on flight manifests w a certain sexual predator and one does not. Biden does not.
Sweet guy. Filled with the love of Jesus and more than worthy to follow any horse pucky dropping
Re: 2024
Posted: Tue Jul 09, 2024 12:45 pm
by kramerica.inc
OCanada wrote: ↑Tue Jul 09, 2024 12:35 pm
There are currently three candidates for President. Two of them appear on flight manifests w a certain sexual predator and one does not. Biden does not
Biden doesnt need to fly.
Re: 2024
Posted: Tue Jul 09, 2024 1:06 pm
by OCanada
Imagine how nice it would be if you could have truthfully said he never flew w Epstein and they were not besties for a long time.
Re: 2024
Posted: Tue Jul 09, 2024 5:15 pm
by ggait
Looks like Biden may have been successful in stone-walling the Dem opposition calling for him to step aside. For now.
Bracing for when the next awful poll comes out. Bracing for when Joe's next inevitable senior moment occurs.
Pretty much the worst case scenario imo. Can't win with Biden but can't win without him.
RCP poll average was Trump +0.5 on June 19 pre-debate. Trump +3.3 points today July 9.
On July 9, 2020, it was Biden +9.0. Was up 7.2 on 2020 election day. Actually won the popular vote by 4.5. And won fairly narrowly in the electoral college.
On July 9, 2016 it was Clinton +4.7. +3.2 on election day. Actually won the popular vote by 2.1. And lost the electoral college.
What a cluster.
Re: 2024
Posted: Tue Jul 09, 2024 5:34 pm
by lagerhead
Let’s be real. Nobody voting Dem is voting Biden in November it’s a vote for the VP!
Re: 2024
Posted: Tue Jul 09, 2024 5:36 pm
by Typical Lax Dad
lagerhead wrote: ↑Tue Jul 09, 2024 5:34 pm
Let’s be real. Nobody voting Dem is voting Biden in November it’s a vote for the VP!
I am.
Re: 2024
Posted: Tue Jul 09, 2024 5:49 pm
by a fan
lagerhead wrote: ↑Tue Jul 09, 2024 5:34 pm
Let’s be real. Nobody voting Dem is voting Biden in November it’s a vote for the VP!
Sure.
But I think folks are forgetting that Trump isn't the picture of health...and IF he makes it to his last year in office?
He'll be our oldest President to ever have served. He'll be 81, with his birthday coming up in June.
To summarize: it's wise to pay close attention to who Trump picks as VP. Because it's the same deal with him.
lagerhead wrote: ↑Tue Jul 09, 2024 5:34 pm
Let’s be real. Nobody voting Dem is voting Biden in November it’s a vote for the VP!
Sure.
But I think folks are forgetting that Trump isn't the picture of health...and IF he makes it to his last year in office?
He'll be our oldest President to ever have served. He'll be 81, with his birthday coming up in June.
To summarize: it's wise to pay close attention to who Trump picks as VP. Because it's the same deal with him.
Yep. Trump will be the oldest president ever if he wins. Older than Biden was when he was elected.
If you're gonna wage a media blitz for a candidate to step down because of his age, you have to do it for both candidates seeing how they're nearly the same age. Of course, it's not being done in good faith by a large portion of the media.
I'd prefer both stepped down.
Re: 2024
Posted: Tue Jul 09, 2024 6:27 pm
by ggait
lagerhead wrote: ↑Tue Jul 09, 2024 5:34 pm
Let’s be real. Nobody voting Dem is voting Biden in November it’s a vote for the VP!
Let's be real.
Everyone voting Dem is voting against Trump.
I certainly am. Like I did in 2016 and 2020.
FYI, I voted for Romney in 2012. Probably the last GOP vote of my life tbh.
Yep. Be nice to see this from the folks who are telling us Biden is bad.
Yet we won't hear word one about Trump's age or nonsensical speeches.
Which tells you that they are LYING in their fake complaints about Biden's age.....and could give two figs about age or rambling, incoherent speeches.
They just want to tell us that the Dems are bad.
In other shocking news, water is wet.
Anyone notice how Mainstream Media hasn’t ignored Biden’s age issue? FoxNews’ fair and balanced reporting never ever questioned Trump’s actions or his behavior. Anyone else noticing the difference?
Yep. Be nice to see this from the folks who are telling us Biden is bad.
Yet we won't hear word one about Trump's age or nonsensical speeches.
Which tells you that they are LYING in their fake complaints about Biden's age.....and could give two figs about age or rambling, incoherent speeches.
They just want to tell us that the Dems are bad.
In other shocking news, water is wet.
Anyone notice how Mainstream Media hasn’t ignored Biden’s age issue? FoxNews’ fair and balanced reporting never ever questioned Trump’s actions or his behavior. Anyone else noticing the difference?
Oh, TLD. Get with the program.
Only the "other" media outlets have to be fair and honest and evenhanded. FoxNews, OAN, etc. get full passes, and are EXPECTED to lie to the American people, are are immune to any criticism.
Wake up, dude!
Re: 2024
Posted: Tue Jul 09, 2024 8:26 pm
by old salt
OCanada wrote: ↑Tue Jul 09, 2024 1:06 pm
Imagine how nice it would be if you could have truthfully said he never flew w Epstein and they were not besties for a long time.
Bill Clinton can't claim that. Besties ? They went to some of the same parties. Trump subsequently banned him from Mar a Lago before he was charged in 2008.