The biggest thing Trump has going for him is that Trump has been ahead, still is ahead, and is increasing his lead.
The data for Biden is bad. And getting worse.
The RCP Poll average today is Trump +3.4%. On June 18, it was only Trump +0.5%. Biden has trailed Trump every single day in the RCP average for 10 months solid. In 2020, Biden was ahead for 12 solid months before election day. In July 2020, Joe was +9 points over Trump!!!!
To win the EC, Biden needs to win the popular vote by at least 2 points minimum. In 2020, Biden won by 4.4 points, but it was quite close in the EC.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/ ... p-vs-biden
The Economist has it 71% Trump, 28% Biden. It was 60/40 on May 27.
https://www.economist.com/interactive/u ... /president
Nate Silver's average has Joe down by 3.1 points. Only gives Joe about a 30% win probability. Silver's quote "the election is NOT a toss up."
https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-presid ... ion-isnt-a
[FYI, Silver's famous model is no longer owned and operated by 538. Silver's model can be found at NateSilver.net. 538 is now using a completely different model.]
The new 538 does have it 51/49 Trump. Consider that the new 538 model is new and perhaps an outlier. Regardless, 538 had it 62/38 Biden back in April. So the trend is clearly and consistently towards Trump.
RCP's betting odds say Trump 57%, Biden 18% and Harris 11%. Bettors had the Trump/Biden race even on May 1.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/bettin ... /president
Who knows if anyone else would have a better chance than Joe. But despite Trump's felony conviction, Biden's numbers have been sliding for months. And have continued to slide since the debate face plant. Trump is less popular in 2024 than he was in 2020. Unfortunately, Biden is MUCH less popular than he was in 2020.
Boycott stupid. Country over party.