Lacrosse Analytics

[laxreference]

Whatever happened to those Monday morning rankings of individual players who added the most to a team's win, or loss even. I used to love those rankings as it gave us a little sense of who was the Tewy favorite.

Of course when I last saw them TDLerlan was #1 every week with his incredible Face off %.

Is it possible to bring those back?
GOBIGRED
Joewillie78

I've still been doing it each week. Will be posting this week's shortly.

[joewillie78]

Whatever happened to those Monday morning rankings of individual players who added the most to a team's win, or loss even. I used to love those rankings as it gave us a little sense of who was the Tewy favorite.

Of course when I last saw them TDLerlan was #1 every week with his incredible Face off %.

Is it possible to bring those back?
GOBIGRED
Joewillie78

I've still been doing it each week. Will be posting this week's shortly.

Thanks so much. I love that.
GOBIGRED
Joewillie78

[laxreference]

One note: in the past, this was a ranking of straight-up EGA (expected goals added). This year, I've modified the formula to account for the chances each player has to accrue EGA. Since faceoff guys do not get penalized for losing faceoffs in the EGA model, I think this has worked out to produce a less FOGO-heavy list and a list that more reliably matches the contributions players have made.

Anyway, here is the top individual EGA performances of the past week. The full post is here, but here are the highlights...

Dalton Young (RICH) put together a 7.02 EGA game to steal the top spot. Richmond's offense has been one of the real surprises of the year so far. They've always been at or neat the top of the SoCon and it feels like they become the team to beat if their offense starts to catch-up with their D.


Here is how the rest of the top 10 shook out:

Jake Naso (DUKE) - 7.21 EGA
Jakob Phaup (SYR) - 7.11 EGA
Brandon Dodd (AFA) - 6.77 EGA
Frankie Labetti (FFL) - 6.93 EGA
Renz Conlon (STNY) - 6.94 EGA
Sean Lulley (DUKE) - 6.57 EGA
Matt Campbell (NOVA) - 6.59 EGA
Mikey Sisselberger (LEH) - 6.67 EGA
Brendan Curry (SYR) - 6.05 EGA

[laxreference]

Live Win Probability Links

- Sacred Heart vs Providence
- Vermont vs Dartmouth
- Saint Joseph's vs Drexel
- Albany vs UMass
- Binghamton vs Hofstra
- Quinnipiac vs Fairfield

[laxreference]

Live Win Probability Links for Friday's games. Lots of reschedules.

- High Point vs Robert Morris
- Siena vs St. John's
- Towson vs Saint Joseph's
- Cleveland State vs St. Bonaventure
- Rutgers vs Princeton
- Jacksonville vs Bellarmine
- Marist vs Delaware
- Utah vs UMBC
- Army vs Lafayette

[laxreference]

Here's a quick rundown of today's games

Richmond vs Georgetown

The start the Richmond has had so far is one of the most under-covered aspects of this season. I get it, the 3-2 start doesn't turn a lot of heads. A SoCon team needs to have some wins over the ACC teams to get noticed. And that's fair; this ... Read More

Ohio State vs Notre Dame

There may not be a team that is more confusing to me than Notre Dame. The loss of Leonard and Gallagher from the faceoff unit has clouded my perspective of their prospects. After finishing 2021 as the 6th best adjusted faceoff unit, they are 53rd this year.

But it's rare ... Read More

And here are the preview pages for the rest of the games...
Air Force vs Bryant
Albany vs Maryland
Mercer vs Wagner
Stony Brook vs Brown
Manhattan vs Hofstra
Sacred Heart vs UMass-Lowell
Cornell vs Penn State
LIU vs UMass
Drexel vs Marquette
VMI vs Detroit
Penn vs Villanova
Vermont vs Providence
Harvard vs Michigan
Bucknell vs Boston U

[laxreference]

Updated list of Live Win Probability Links

- Air Force vs Bryant
- Albany vs Maryland
- Mercer vs Wagner (Recap Analysis)
- Stony Brook vs Brown
- Manhattan vs Hofstra
- Sacred Heart vs UMass-Lowell
- Georgetown vs Richmond
- Cornell vs Penn State
- LIU vs UMass
- Drexel vs Marquette
- VMI vs Detroit
- Vermont vs Providence
- Harvard vs Michigan
- Notre Dame vs Ohio State (Preview Analysis)
- Bucknell vs Boston U

[CU77]

ND v OSU link is broken (missing https://)

[laxreference]

ND v OSU link is broken (missing https://)

Thanks for the heads up.

[laxreference]

Updated list of Live Win Probability Links

- Colgate vs Navy
- St. Bonaventure vs Cleveland State
- Yale vs Denver
- Duke vs Loyola
- Penn vs Villanova
- Holy Cross vs Lehigh
- Syracuse vs Johns Hopkins

[laxreference]

Here's the Top-20 I submitted for the College Crosse poll this week

lacrossereference_rankings_20220313_NCAAD1Men.jpg (114.27 KiB) Viewed 1308 times

[Gobigred]

Princeton's lost only to Maryland and has beaten Georgetown. Should be ranked ahead of the Hoyas.

[lorin]

Princeton's lost only to Maryland and has beaten Georgetown. Should be ranked ahead of the Hoyas.

Duke at 10 I stopped reading, stupid

[laxreference]

As always, here is the top individual EGA performances of the past week. The full post is here, but here are the highlights...

Zach Cole (SJOE) appears to have gotten over whatever was ailing him last year. With Saint Joe's ranked, he's been a big part of what's gone right for them this year.


Here is how the rest of the top 10 shook out:

Richie Hughson (PC) - 7.48 EGA
Brett Erskine (DET) - 6.64 EGA
Matt Brandau (YALE) - 6.59 EGA
Stephen Dwyer (WAG) - 6.65 EGA
Connor Macrae (MON) - 6.56 EGA
Jack Myers (OSU) - 6.18 EGA
Brian Minicus (COL) - 6.24 EGA
Will Coletti (ARMY) - 6.32 EGA
Alec Stathakis (DEN) - 6.26 EGA

[laxreference]

Princeton's lost only to Maryland and has beaten Georgetown. Should be ranked ahead of the Hoyas.

Fair. Georgetown's resume is strong though. 6th nationally in the SOR ratings, although it is behind where Princeton sits in 4th. Princeton ends up where they are because they are still working their way up the Elo ratings. At 8th, they are several spots behind Georgetown (2nd). When the model averages it all out, Hoyas come out ahead. We'll see if that holds true over the coming weeks. If they both keep winning, the Tigers will eventually eclipse the Hoyas because their SOS from here on out is so much better.

[Gobigred]

Princeton's lost only to Maryland and has beaten Georgetown. Should be ranked ahead of the Hoyas.

Fair. Georgetown's resume is strong though. 6th nationally in the SOR ratings, although it is behind where Princeton sits in 4th. Princeton ends up where they are because they are still working their way up the Elo ratings. At 8th, they are several spots behind Georgetown (2nd). When the model averages it all out, Hoyas come out ahead. We'll see if that holds true over the coming weeks. If they both keep winning, the Tigers will eventually eclipse the Hoyas because their SOS from here on out is so much better.

Modify your ELO algorithm to reflect reality on the field. Results matter. Else no one but you will care about ELO.

[rolldodge]

Princeton's lost only to Maryland and has beaten Georgetown. Should be ranked ahead of the Hoyas.

Fair. Georgetown's resume is strong though. 6th nationally in the SOR ratings, although it is behind where Princeton sits in 4th. Princeton ends up where they are because they are still working their way up the Elo ratings. At 8th, they are several spots behind Georgetown (2nd). When the model averages it all out, Hoyas come out ahead. We'll see if that holds true over the coming weeks. If they both keep winning, the Tigers will eventually eclipse the Hoyas because their SOS from here on out is so much better.

Modify your ELO algorithm to reflect reality on the field. Results matter. Else no one but you will care about ELO.

Correct me if I am wrong, but ELO is not only an evaluation of past performance, but somewhat a prediction of future results as well based on some important metrics (which are also part of the "reality on the field"). I think it's really interesting in that regard, and points to some trends that aren't necessarily apparent from just the final score of the game.

[Hoxwurth]

Princeton's lost only to Maryland and has beaten Georgetown. Should be ranked ahead of the Hoyas.

Fair. Georgetown's resume is strong though. 6th nationally in the SOR ratings, although it is behind where Princeton sits in 4th. Princeton ends up where they are because they are still working their way up the Elo ratings. At 8th, they are several spots behind Georgetown (2nd). When the model averages it all out, Hoyas come out ahead. We'll see if that holds true over the coming weeks. If they both keep winning, the Tigers will eventually eclipse the Hoyas because their SOS from here on out is so much better.

Modify your ELO algorithm to reflect reality on the field. Results matter. Else no one but you will care about ELO.

The ELO calculation is likely good, but any model that uses prior games will struggle where so many teams like the Ivies missed so much time. One could quibble that the assumptions regarding the ELO start are wrong where Virginia (winner of the last two natties) was ranked behind Georgetown and Cornell to start the season. COVID missed games aside, changing the model could be effected by making different assumptions such as weighting later (i.e., tournament) games more heavily.

I remember reading that the ELO model does a pretty good job predicting future games, so tinkering may not make the model more accurate.

[Gobigred]

Princeton's lost only to Maryland and has beaten Georgetown. Should be ranked ahead of the Hoyas.

Fair. Georgetown's resume is strong though. 6th nationally in the SOR ratings, although it is behind where Princeton sits in 4th. Princeton ends up where they are because they are still working their way up the Elo ratings. At 8th, they are several spots behind Georgetown (2nd). When the model averages it all out, Hoyas come out ahead. We'll see if that holds true over the coming weeks. If they both keep winning, the Tigers will eventually eclipse the Hoyas because their SOS from here on out is so much better.

Modify your ELO algorithm to reflect reality on the field. Results matter. Else no one but you will care about ELO.

The ELO calculation is likely good, but any model that uses prior games will struggle where so many teams like the Ivies missed so much time. One could quibble that the assumptions regarding the ELO start are wrong where Virginia (winner of the last two natties) was ranked behind Georgetown and Cornell to start the season. COVID missed games aside, changing the model could be effected by making different assumptions such as weighting later (i.e., tournament) games more heavily.

I remember reading that the ELO model does a pretty good job predicting future games, so tinkering may not make the model more accurate.

If you are basing your algorithm on what happened last season after teams have played five to ten games this season...I'm tuning you out.

[laxreference]

Princeton's lost only to Maryland and has beaten Georgetown. Should be ranked ahead of the Hoyas.

Fair. Georgetown's resume is strong though. 6th nationally in the SOR ratings, although it is behind where Princeton sits in 4th. Princeton ends up where they are because they are still working their way up the Elo ratings. At 8th, they are several spots behind Georgetown (2nd). When the model averages it all out, Hoyas come out ahead. We'll see if that holds true over the coming weeks. If they both keep winning, the Tigers will eventually eclipse the Hoyas because their SOS from here on out is so much better.

Modify your ELO algorithm to reflect reality on the field. Results matter. Else no one but you will care about ELO.

Correct me if I am wrong, but ELO is not only an evaluation of past performance, but somewhat a prediction of future results as well based on some important metrics (which are also part of the "reality on the field"). I think it's really interesting in that regard, and points to some trends that aren't necessarily apparent from just the final score of the game.

Yes, LaxElo is a model that is designed to be predictive. When Elo says a team has an 80% chance of winning; we would expect them to win 80 times and lose 20 times. So to me, Elo is the measure of which team is better because it measures who would be likely to win a game on a neutral field.

But I don't feel comfortable using Elo alone as my contribution to a top-20 because I don't think a ranking like that should be based on best team. I think it should be a mix of best team and best season, which is why more than half the algorithm is based on my strength-of-record ratings.

The net effect of including Elo is that my rankings are going to react more slowly to any one game; but I'm fine with that.