2019 Bracketology Thread

[Wheels]

Pretty interesting that Syracuse hasn't gotten much discussion in the bubble talk. 10th in RPI with that loss to Colgate.

The committee isn't supposed to weight when a win or loss occurred. Each game is supposed to carry equal importance. That Colgate loss is a bad loss...if not the worst loss of any at-large team considered. RPI teams 9-12 are a mix of good wins and "good" losses...except that Colgate loss.

Would it be shocking to see Cuse bumped out? Name brand aside.

Forget the JHU-MD comparisons. What about SU-MD-Cornell?

[Hawkeye]

Copied from the Cornell thread:

https://www.uslaxmagazine.com/college/m ... bate-begin

[stupefied]

Cornell losing to Yale did hurt, it cost them a spot in the field.
On Sunday Cornell will have a lower RPI than both Hopkins and Maryland who will be above them for an at large spot,

Cornell has a 3% shot to get in according to the updated link,

https://lacrossereference.com/mens-d1-bracketology/

Just wanted to point out that the 3% estimate was from before the Yale/Cornell game wrapped. So that 3% included the chance that they might beat Yale. With the loss, the model is even less bullish on Cornell's chances.

Now, here is the caveat: my model weights RPI extremely heavily in identifying which teams get in because by all accounts, it is the most important factor that the committee considers. But they do consider a range of factors and there is always the possibility that they weight RPI lower than my model does.

Cornell appears to need the most help but if PSU, Towson, Lehigh, Hobart and ND win their conferences then Cornell should be in

[Cooter]

With UMd sitting at #11 in RPI, Hopkins is lacking a top 10 win. So Hopkins has 2 wins over #11 and a win over #17 UNC for quality wins. This to go with 6 losses, including a loss to #14 OSU.

I don't know that losing to Yale really hurt Cornell much. They just lost an opportunity of clinching a spot. Cornell has 2 top 10 wins over Notre Dame and Towson. Only 5 losses with none outside the top 10.

Maryland has wins over #5 Penn, #14 OSU, #16 Villanova, #17 UNC with only 4 losses none outside the top 10 RPIs.

Syracuse has wins over #4 Duke, #9 JHU, #12 Cornell, #15 Army, #17 UNC. They have only 4 losses but 1 is to #47 Colgate and they also lost to #17 UNC

Notre Dame has wins over #4 Duke, #10 Syracuse, #11 Maryland, #13 Denver, #17 UNC. They have 5 losses including #22 Richmond, #14 OSU, #12 Cornell.

It could well depend on how much they choose to look at the losses this time around.
Notre Dame can breath easy if the beat UVa, and Hopkins gets the AQ if they beat PSU, but otherwise I would be concerned if I were any of these 5 going into selection Sunday.

Cornell losing to Yale did hurt, it cost them a spot in the field.
On Sunday Cornell will have a lower RPI than both Hopkins and Maryland who will be above them for an at large spot,

Cornell has a 3% shot to get in according to the updated link,

https://lacrossereference.com/mens-d1-bracketology/

Laf from laxpowers assessment has Cornell at 50%
http://www.laxbytes.com/2019/binmenstats/ncaapb01.php
The quality wins factor has usually seemed rather important to selection committees and Hopkins is the worst of the five in that category by a significant amount.
While the selection criteria are listed, how a particular selection committee uses it often seems inconsistent. So it is hard to figure out, with a lot of teams relatively close, what will be the major factor.

[Cooter]

Pretty interesting that Syracuse hasn't gotten much discussion in the bubble talk. 10th in RPI with that loss to Colgate.

The committee isn't supposed to weight when a win or loss occurred. Each game is supposed to carry equal importance. That Colgate loss is a bad loss...if not the worst loss of any at-large team considered. RPI teams 9-12 are a mix of good wins and "good" losses...except that Colgate loss.

Would it be shocking to see Cuse bumped out? Name brand aside.

Forget the JHU-MD comparisons. What about SU-MD-Cornell?

It would be good if Syracuse missed. If the ACC picked up a 6th member so they got an AQ, the NCAA tmt would probably go back to 18 teams and we wouldn't even be having this (particular) discussion. The last couple seasons teams from other conferences have missed, it would be nice to bring the point home to the ACC in a direct manner by having Syracuse miss.

When your team (or mine) misses out on Sunday, just say "F**k the ACC".

[runrussellrun]

Am I really the only person that is bothered by this insanity?

No other sport, at the pro or college level.......does this.

Yes. You seem to be pretty much the only one.

Also, you clearly don't watch college basketball.

NO......I don't watch corrupt college hoops......why, would I learn that a team with a .867 winning percentage, playing in their conference/league final, is normally NOT invited because they play in a "bad" league? Curious to know if this is the case.

quality wins......based on RPI, which only takes into account 25% of a teams record in its valuation formula. Like investing in Company X, based on Y & Z's performance, mostly. NOT your own sales/performance. I will stand by insanity.

[runrussellrun]

Pretty interesting that Syracuse hasn't gotten much discussion in the bubble talk. 10th in RPI with that loss to Colgate.

The committee isn't supposed to weight when a win or loss occurred. Each game is supposed to carry equal importance. That Colgate loss is a bad loss...if not the worst loss of any at-large team considered. RPI teams 9-12 are a mix of good wins and "good" losses...except that Colgate loss.

Would it be shocking to see Cuse bumped out? Name brand aside.

Forget the JHU-MD comparisons. What about SU-MD-Cornell?

It would be good if Syracuse missed. If the ACC picked up a 6th member so they got an AQ, the NCAA tmt would probably go back to 18 teams and we wouldn't even be having this (particular) discussion. The last couple seasons teams from other conferences have missed, it would be nice to bring the point home to the ACC in a direct manner by having Syracuse miss.

When your team (or mine) misses out on Sunday, just say "F**k the ACC".

Doesn't the committee throw out games, still? Only accounting for top RPI metrics. Making the Colgate loss mute.????

[Hawkeye]

Pretty interesting that Syracuse hasn't gotten much discussion in the bubble talk. 10th in RPI with that loss to Colgate.

The committee isn't supposed to weight when a win or loss occurred. Each game is supposed to carry equal importance. That Colgate loss is a bad loss...if not the worst loss of any at-large team considered. RPI teams 9-12 are a mix of good wins and "good" losses...except that Colgate loss.

Would it be shocking to see Cuse bumped out? Name brand aside.

Forget the JHU-MD comparisons. What about SU-MD-Cornell?

It would be good if Syracuse missed. If the ACC picked up a 6th member so they got an AQ, the NCAA tmt would probably go back to 18 teams and we wouldn't even be having this (particular) discussion. The last couple seasons teams from other conferences have missed, it would be nice to bring the point home to the ACC in a direct manner by having Syracuse miss.

When your team (or mine) misses out on Sunday, just say "F**k the ACC".

All for the ACC adding a 6th team. I may have one in particular in mind...

[stupefied]

Expecting Cuse to host a game. Opening day loss to Colgate can only go so far in diminishing. JHU and Cornell could have made a strong case by beating. They didn't

[Cooter]

Pretty interesting that Syracuse hasn't gotten much discussion in the bubble talk. 10th in RPI with that loss to Colgate.

The committee isn't supposed to weight when a win or loss occurred. Each game is supposed to carry equal importance. That Colgate loss is a bad loss...if not the worst loss of any at-large team considered. RPI teams 9-12 are a mix of good wins and "good" losses...except that Colgate loss.

Would it be shocking to see Cuse bumped out? Name brand aside.

Forget the JHU-MD comparisons. What about SU-MD-Cornell?

It would be good if Syracuse missed. If the ACC picked up a 6th member so they got an AQ, the NCAA tmt would probably go back to 18 teams and we wouldn't even be having this (particular) discussion. The last couple seasons teams from other conferences have missed, it would be nice to bring the point home to the ACC in a direct manner by having Syracuse miss.

When your team (or mine) misses out on Sunday, just say "F**k the ACC".

Doesn't the committee throw out games, still? Only accounting for top RPI metrics. Making the Colgate loss mute.????

No, but in the determinations of the NCAA Strength of Schedule, they only count the top 10 RPI games.

[runrussellrun]

Pretty interesting that Syracuse hasn't gotten much discussion in the bubble talk. 10th in RPI with that loss to Colgate.

The committee isn't supposed to weight when a win or loss occurred. Each game is supposed to carry equal importance. That Colgate loss is a bad loss...if not the worst loss of any at-large team considered. RPI teams 9-12 are a mix of good wins and "good" losses...except that Colgate loss.

Would it be shocking to see Cuse bumped out? Name brand aside.

Forget the JHU-MD comparisons. What about SU-MD-Cornell?

It would be good if Syracuse missed. If the ACC picked up a 6th member so they got an AQ, the NCAA tmt would probably go back to 18 teams and we wouldn't even be having this (particular) discussion. The last couple seasons teams from other conferences have missed, it would be nice to bring the point home to the ACC in a direct manner by having Syracuse miss.

When your team (or mine) misses out on Sunday, just say "F**k the ACC".

Doesn't the committee throw out games, still? Only accounting for top RPI metrics. Making the Colgate loss mute.????

No, but in the determinations of the NCAA Strength of Schedule, they only count the top 10 RPI games.

So, it's not a NO. Does anyone evah use SOS as an invitation metric?

exactly

[Wheels]

https://extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/St ... ty0503.pdf

Really, look at the Cuse-Maryland lines. Cuse is 2-2 against T10; Terps are 1-4 against T10. A single Top 10 win is weighted more than a single loss at home to a +40 RPI team?

And Cuse is being considered for a home game, while Maryland and Cornell are in a battle for the last at-large? Cuse at least has the H2H win over Cornell.

[ICGrad]

High Point is firmly in the #2 spot for Div. 1 winning percentage. But a .500 team (if they lose tonight, which they won't) that really beat no one besides Maryland, is considered worthy? ......... Am I really the only person that is bothered by this insanity? Rewarding LOSING to teams with good records?

Please explain why a team that beat Duke and UVA......and 11 other teams.........should NOT be getting an at large. RPI counting only WINS is the better method. Stop rewarding losing. No other sport, at the pro or college level.......does this.

No, I'm bothered by it as well. JHU should absolutely not be in consideration for an at-large over High Point. The wins over Duke and Virginia should put them in over Hopkins. I just don't think they will, should it come to that.

Bottom line for High Point: Great season with a pair of historic wins. But how the hell do you then go and lose to St. John's at home and Jacksonville (a team that they then went and beat by 14(!) in their conference tournament).

Win either of those games and I think they are an at-large shoo-in. But as great as those two ACC wins are, the St John's/Jacksonville losses are just absolutely terrible.

[stupefied]

https://extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/St ... ty0503.pdf

Really, look at the Cuse-Maryland lines. Cuse is 2-2 against T10; Terps are 1-4 against T10. A single Top 10 win is weighted more than a single loss at home to a +40 RPI team?

And Cuse is being considered for a home game, while Maryland and Cornell are in a battle for the last at-large? Cuse at least has the H2H win over Cornell.

JHU is not out of the woods. Got trashed by many

[runrussellrun]

High Point is firmly in the #2 spot for Div. 1 winning percentage. But a .500 team (if they lose tonight, which they won't) that really beat no one besides Maryland, is considered worthy? ......... Am I really the only person that is bothered by this insanity? Rewarding LOSING to teams with good records?

Please explain why a team that beat Duke and UVA......and 11 other teams.........should NOT be getting an at large. RPI counting only WINS is the better method. Stop rewarding losing. No other sport, at the pro or college level.......does this.

No, I'm bothered by it as well. JHU should absolutely not be in consideration for an at-large over High Point. The wins over Duke and Virginia should put them in over Hopkins. I just don't think they will, should it come to that.

Bottom line for High Point: Great season with a pair of historic wins. But how the hell do you then go and lose to St. John's at home and Jacksonville (a team that they then went and beat by 14(!) in their conference tournament).

Win either of those games and I think they are an at-large shoo-in. But as great as those two ACC wins are, the St John's/Jacksonville losses are just absolutely terrible.

St. Johns, losing by one goal against Denver......that kind of terrible. What makes you think St. Johns is bad? The w-l recored

If you ain't watching the Marist/Quinny game....you ain't a fan of lacrosse. awesome fun

[ICGrad]

St. Johns, losing by one goal against Denver......

Stop rewarding losing.

Yeah, a 4-10 record against a sub-mediocre schedule usually indicates a less-than-great team.

[runrussellrun]

St. Johns, losing by one goal against Denver......

Stop rewarding losing.

Yeah, a 4-10 record against a sub-mediocre schedule usually indicates a less-than-great team.

Not rewarding........just NOT calling them terrible. But, now you are saying that the Big East is a mediocre league! Umm.......ok.

[Trumansburger]

Laf from laxpowers assessment has Cornell at 50%
http://www.laxbytes.com/2019/binmenstats/ncaapb01.php
The quality wins factor has usually seemed rather important to selection committees and Hopkins is the worst of the five in that category by a significant amount.
While the selection criteria are listed, how a particular selection committee uses it often seems inconsistent. So it is hard to figure out, with a lot of teams relatively close, what will be the major factor.

OK, I see Cornell listed at 50%. And when I scroll down it shows Syracuse with only 33% and Maryland 42.9% Tournament Selection Probability. Those seem low. Am I missing something?

[ABV 8.3%]

Congratulations to Marist as first in. Also, hats off to Quinnipiac for having a challenging season, after a challenging fall.

[calourie]

I'm going to imagine the committee will be taking into consideration many of the factors being discussed in here in their determination as to who the last seed or two are going to be (as well as how the higher seeding gets sorted out). Can anyone tell me what the make-up of the committee is this year?