NCAA Selection Discussion - Containment Thread

[jrn19]

LaxRef has Cornell's SOS at 22. They played Marquette, Albany, and Hobart OOC; 3 teams who's RPI's are all 35 or lower. The Ivy also has 3 teams this year with RPI's lower than 30. So 6 teams Cornell played - half their schedule - had RPI's 30 or lower. Their out of conference schedule was pretty mediocre. Ohio State turning out to be a really average team instead of the Top 10 team they were projected to be hurt them, but on the flip side they basically turned out to be what Penn State was expected to be and Penn State turned out to be what Ohio State was supposed to be. Army was what Army was. Otherwise...you're not going to get a lot out of playing Marquette. Albany is an in-state game but they've been a below par team for a couple years now. Always going to play Hobart. Lost the Cuse game not through their own doing necessarily seemingly but that would have been fringe Top 20. Lehigh is...fine.

It's basically a schedule where unless the Ivy League is elite like last year, you're gonna wind up somewhere between the mid-fifteens or low-20s or so

[Lager]

LaxRef has Cornell's SOS at 22. They played Marquette, Albany, and Hobart OOC; 3 teams who's RPI's are all 35 or lower. The Ivy also has 3 teams this year with RPI's lower than 30. So 6 teams Cornell played - half their schedule - had RPI's 30 or lower. Their out of conference schedule was pretty mediocre. Ohio State turning out to be a really average team instead of the Top 10 team they were projected to be hurt them, but on the flip side they basically turned out to be what Penn State was expected to be and Penn State turned out to be what Ohio State was supposed to be. Army was what Army was. Otherwise...you're not going to get a lot out of playing Marquette. Albany is an in-state game but they've been a below par team for a couple years now. Always going to play Hobart. Lost the Cuse game not through their own doing necessarily seemingly but that would have been fringe Top 20. Lehigh is...fine.

It's basically a schedule where unless the Ivy League is elite like last year, you're gonna wind up somewhere between the mid-fifteens or low-20s or so

Interestingly enough, Marquette almost is a "quality win" for Cornell. If Marquette had pulled out those extremely close games against Gtown and Denver, they'd have wins over Gtown, Denver, Michigan, and Penn st.

[Lager]

LaxRef has Cornell's SOS at 22. They played Marquette, Albany, and Hobart OOC; 3 teams who's RPI's are all 35 or lower. The Ivy also has 3 teams this year with RPI's lower than 30. So 6 teams Cornell played - half their schedule - had RPI's 30 or lower. Their out of conference schedule was pretty mediocre. Ohio State turning out to be a really average team instead of the Top 10 team they were projected to be hurt them, but on the flip side they basically turned out to be what Penn State was expected to be and Penn State turned out to be what Ohio State was supposed to be. Army was what Army was. Otherwise...you're not going to get a lot out of playing Marquette. Albany is an in-state game but they've been a below par team for a couple years now. Always going to play Hobart. Lost the Cuse game not through their own doing necessarily seemingly but that would have been fringe Top 20. Lehigh is...fine.

It's basically a schedule where unless the Ivy League is elite like last year, you're gonna wind up somewhere between the mid-fifteens or low-20s or so

Forgot about the 1 goal loss to Nova as well! Marquette has lost THREE 1 goal games in a row, all to ncaa tournament or potential ncaa tournament teams. One of their losses was also to ND, which obviously doesn't kill you.

[jrn19]

Yeah, Marquette turned out to almost be a crazy spoiler this year. You could argue they still were one; if Penn State won that game and wins the B10 Tournament they'd have a pretty darn good argument for the #1 overall seed. Also, Michigan is on the bubble right now if they win that game as opposed to sitting outside Top 20 in RPI

[10stone5]

College Crosse has Cornell with a 22 SoS,
which I’m guessing they’re going with the Lax Ref calcs,
Masseys is lower/better,

so College Crosse has Cornell as the #7 seed for now, depending of course on the Ivy tournament.

[Stiffler]

Go look at Penn and Cornell's resumes. They're basically identical.

Cornell
RPI: 8
SOS: 22
T5: 0-1
T10: 2-1
T20: 3-2
21+: 8-1

Penn
RPI: 10
SOS: 8
T5: 0-2
T10: 2-3
T20: 3-4
21+: 4-1

Cornell's best wins: #9 Yale, #10 Penn, #17 Princeton

Penn's best wins: #7 Georgetown, #9 Yale, #17 Princeton

Cornell's bad loss: #33 Harvard

Penn's bad loss: #31 Brown

The only tangible difference here is that Cornell won H2H. Which is enough for Cornell to be ahead of Penn in the pecking order for sure. But it's not so significant that Cornell would be in the tournament as a seed (meaning they're a lock) and Penn would be out of the tournament. I really don't understand the argument for Penn to be behind Yale or Denver tbh.

Yale has no Top 10 wins, the same number of Top 20 wins AND lost the H2H to Penn. Denver has no Top 10 wins, same # of Top 20 wins, is behind Penn in RPI, AND also has a bad loss. Villanova you could make the argument for based on H2H and having a Top 5 win, but they're behind in RPI and have 1 fewer Top 20 win.

Considering Penn has 2 more Top 10 wins and the H2H over Georgetown you could make a good argument for them getting the #8 seed over them even though that could be the 8-9 game either way.

If we assume the committee rankings wind up being reflective of what the order actually is, and I think someone posted above there's evidence there usually isn't correlation there, I think their order is probably Yale-Denver-Penn. They just have the wrong order of teams there. The Villanova-Denver loser is for sure out IMO. The winner + Penn + Yale are all likely in regardless of their results unless we get a Carolina win over ND + Providence bid steal + maybe Michigan beating Penn State gets them an argument since they would have two Top 10 wins. Of course Michigan winning B1G gets them AQ.

I think it is even more apt comparison w Yale and Denver. If RPI matters, Penn will be in w a win against Princeton.

[jhu06]

some combinations of loyola, princeton, michigan, unc, and denver winning over the next two days would be pretty funny.

[HopFan16]

Denver and Penn look like the last two in right now with UNC still alive if they beat ND. Princeton winning the AQ would bump one of them out. Michigan winning the AQ would do the same. Two very clear-cut bid stealer opportunities.

Michigan's bubble case even with a loss tomorrow is better than the ESPN guys think, but still probably a longshot.

[CU77]

Denver can also steal a bid here by beating Georgetown, since Georgetown has a strong AL resume. If any 3 of Denver, Princeton, Michigan, and UNC win, I think Cornell will be bubble out.

[jrn19]

Not certain Georgetown has a definite at large resume.

Their RPI is high, but after that they look a lot similar to other bubble teams

0-2 vs Top 5, 1-0 vs Top 10 (1-1 if they lose to Denver on Saturday), 2-1 vs Top 10.

Compare this with Penn who has the H2H over Georgetown

0-1 vs Top 5, 2-2 vs Top 10, 1-2 vs Top 10. Bad loss.

Yale is 0-0 vs T5, 2-2 vs Top 10, 2-2 vs Top 20. No bad loss.

Michigan is 1-3 vs Top 5, 1-1 vs Top 10, 0-0 vs Top 20. Bad loss.

They’d be in danger IMO, esp if there were other chaos.

[CU77]

Well the committee's job is to add random noise to something that should be done by formula (as in every professional sport ever), and they are very good at their job.

[bearlaxfan]

Well the committee's job is to add random noise to something that should be done by formula (as in every professional sport ever), and they are very good at their job.

One of my past jobs involved trouble-shooting relatively complex systems; general issues were similar, but every job was different: customers, locations, systems, legacy equipment, new equipment etc. My company, in an effort to standardize, organize, and quantify jobs and employees, set up a system to rank employee efficiency. After a few months, I, and others, noticed that virtually every one of our highest-rated months were months we happened to be in schools, on vacation, or out sick. They had devised a rating system wherein the less we did the better we looked!

This is just an longer, hopefully humorous way to say GIGO. I AM NOT saying RPI is horrible, just that it's not perfect, and I'm personally comfortable with human oversight. Imperfect people overseeing imperfect systems is about as good as we can do.

p.s. the rating system lasted about 18 months...

[Farfromgeneva]

Well the committee's job is to add random noise to something that should be done by formula (as in every professional sport ever), and they are very good at their job.

One of my past jobs involved trouble-shooting relatively complex systems; general issues were similar, but every job was different: customers, locations, systems, legacy equipment, new equipment etc. My company, in an effort to standardize, organize, and quantify jobs and employees, set up a system to rank employee efficiency. After a few months, I, and others, noticed that virtually every one of our highest-rated months were months we happened to be in schools, on vacation, or out sick. They had devised a rating system wherein the less we did the better we looked!

This is just an longer, hopefully humorous way to say GIGO. I AM NOT saying RPI is horrible, just that it's not perfect, and I'm personally comfortable with human oversight. Imperfect people overseeing imperfect systems is about as good as we can do.

p.s. the rating system lasted about 18 months...

I love the absurd human labor arbitrage most utilization optimization systems offer in poorly constructed incentive systems!

[laxreference]

Well the committee's job is to add random noise to something that should be done by formula (as in every professional sport ever), and they are very good at their job.

One of my past jobs involved trouble-shooting relatively complex systems; general issues were similar, but every job was different: customers, locations, systems, legacy equipment, new equipment etc. My company, in an effort to standardize, organize, and quantify jobs and employees, set up a system to rank employee efficiency. After a few months, I, and others, noticed that virtually every one of our highest-rated months were months we happened to be in schools, on vacation, or out sick. They had devised a rating system wherein the less we did the better we looked!

This is just an longer, hopefully humorous way to say GIGO. I AM NOT saying RPI is horrible, just that it's not perfect, and I'm personally comfortable with human oversight. Imperfect people overseeing imperfect systems is about as good as we can do.

p.s. the rating system lasted about 18 months...

As a proponent of formula-based selections, I feel duty-bound to point out that a system to select teams doesn't have to be poorly designed. And compared to the incentives of today's system, there are several ways in which a well-designed system would be a clear improvement.

[runrussellrun]

Well the committee's job is to add random noise to something that should be done by formula (as in every professional sport ever), and they are very good at their job.

One of my past jobs involved trouble-shooting relatively complex systems; general issues were similar, but every job was different: customers, locations, systems, legacy equipment, new equipment etc. My company, in an effort to standardize, organize, and quantify jobs and employees, set up a system to rank employee efficiency. After a few months, I, and others, noticed that virtually every one of our highest-rated months were months we happened to be in schools, on vacation, or out sick. They had devised a rating system wherein the less we did the better we looked!

This is just an longer, hopefully humorous way to say GIGO. I AM NOT saying RPI is horrible, just that it's not perfect, and I'm personally comfortable with human oversight. Imperfect people overseeing imperfect systems is about as good as we can do.

p.s. the rating system lasted about 18 months...

As a proponent of formula-based selections, I feel duty-bound to point out that a system to select teams doesn't have to be poorly designed. And compared to the incentives of today's system, there are several ways in which a well-designed system would be a clear improvement.

How can you value one system so much, and than totally dismiss that system to "start" your season ?

If the "end game" is to make the tourney, shouldn't a "system" start with the easy. As in, the top 16 teams, or 17, 18 etc. that acually MAKE the end game....the N$aa tournament......should be the tops in any "system". When using a "system' based on the previous years results?

Nah, we can't have Sienna or Marist in the top 20.........just look at their rpi/sos/qwf numbers

[keno in reno]

So assuming the seeding goes 1 Duke, 2 UVA and 3 ND, which likely 6-10 teams (before some Hopnell genius jumps in to say there is no seed below 8... we know) would pose the biggest threats based on matchups?

Duke- Michigan has an offense and face-offs that could compete. If Georgetown loses today, that would be a disappointing quarterfinal for the #1 seed. I don't think Penn State or Cornell match up well with Duke's offense

UVA- Georgetown would be a bummer of a 7 seed for UVA. I've always felt UVA is the best team this year for May, so I don't think the other potential 7 seeds threaten the Hoos much

ND- all the potential 6-10 teams should scare ND. Georgetown could be a favorite. Hopkins matches up well, Cornell's defense looks horrendous right now but they have firepower to compete. Michigan and Penn State shouldn't be intimidated either. I wouldn't bet on Yale or Denver against ND, but they'd have a shot too.

[jrn19]

Yesterday was a bad game for them but I still don't think the 1 or 2 seed wants to see Cornell. Elite defense all season aside from y'day, their offense has been clicking at a super high level since Long came back, got tournament experience from a year ago. Top 5 player in the country in Kirst who is completely unguardable. They're a Top 5-6 team that is gonna be in the 8-9-10 range probably. If Ierlan is hot that's also not fun. Wouldn't like it.

Yale with the offense playing the way they are and Paquette on a heater in goal is going to be a very tough out, and you have one of the best coaches in the country in Shay.

I don't see it this year with Georgetown. The offense is possibly dangerous and they could win FOs, but Duke and UVA win plenty. Their defense has always given up a ton due to shaky goaltending. UVA saw them in a QF two years ago and took their manhood. I think it would be a much closer game but I'm not sure they're truly threatening the top teams.

Penn State feels like maybe the toughest matchup for ND. Goalie who could match up or outplay Entenmann. Great defense. And they can get on hot shooting runs, they don't need a lot of shots to score a ton of goals. But I agree overall they're more vulnerable to any of the teams than Duke or UVA.

[MoralTerpitude]

Cornell’s D is trending in the wrong direction. While their poles have all been excellent, their shorties have been exposed in the last few games, and teams are really going after them. They’ve also had a bad habit of giving up goals off of the faceoff or off of transition, and against both Princeton and Yale, they gave up several in a row in quick succession. Interestingly, the last couple of games the opposition has been running a “reverse shut-off” on Adler, basically taking him out of the game and playing 5-on-5. Teams with multiple top options like UVa and Yale can successfully do this.

Their faceoffs have also been trending in the wrong direction. Ramsey absolutely owned them last night. Cascadden has cooled down after a hot start, he may be hitting the freshman wall.

If Buzcek can clean up the defensive issues, I think they would scare any team. I think they can overcome a small faceoff deficit. But if not, I doubt they’ll maket the final four.

[jff97]

Time for bubble teams to start getting nervous....

[youthathletics]

Do terps get in with a loss today?