THE 2019 Hopkins Lacrosse Fallout Shelter (44, we want more!)

[HopFan16]

If they get hammered by PSU tomorrow and given what Hopkins has shown over the last 4-5 years that has not shown up in the NCAA tournament, I think the committee is going to look hard very hard at whether a Hopkins team should be in the tournament.

You're wrong. "Team X hasn't done well in the tournament recently" is not one of the selection criteria the committee uses. You are projecting your frustration with recent results on the selection committee. They don't care. They have never cared. Barring total mayhem in some of the other conference tournaments, Hopkins is in a great position to secure an at-large berth if we lose to PSU, based on the actual criteria they use to evaluate the teams.

This is a correct view IMO. The past week was huge, but folks need to pump the brakes on Hopkins being somehow a lock for the tournament at this point. Still need a lot to go right in other conferences to avoid some very sweaty palms on Sunday.

I gather a lot of these comments reflect a growing reliance on what people read on Laxbytes and similar sites. One major drawback to those models is that AFAIK they have no way of accounting for head-to-head. This can really skew things when we're talking about a direct comparison between 2-3 teams for a final bid. If it were to come down to Hopkins and Towson, say, Towson's head-to-head win would be a major factor, probably decisive unless Hop were very far ahead on other metrics. But Laxbytes doesn't "know" any of that, so you have to adjust/discount whatever numbers you see there accordingly.

I think given that Cornell>Towson>Hopkins on the field (and Cornell and Towson have better high-end wins BTW), the best you can say is that it's far from clear that in a direct comparison where you had to take just 1 or 2 of the 3 that Hop would be the one coming out on the right side of that.

If head-to-head becomes a factor, then Hopkins is going to get in over Maryland, so it wouldn't even matter if Towson (or Cornell) gets in over them.

The only scenario I see in which the Jays would miss out at this point is if Towson and Loyola BOTH lose their conferences, and Cornell beats Yale. And even then I'm not sure what the data would be but Hop still might have a case over Cornell. Hopkins is locked into a top 10 RPI.

[steel_hop]

There is absolutely no way you can say Cornell and Towson are better than Hopkins “on the field.” Right now, on the field, Hopkins is playing top-tier lacrosse.

Was Hopkins playing top-tier lacrosse 12 days ago? Was that top-tier lacrosse I saw in net on Saturday?

As I said, they've beat the same team twice in the last 6 days. They certainly should be commended for that because losses in both games puts them out but I'd don't think I would call a 2 game win streak top-tier lacrosse. They beat PSU and we can start having a discussion.

Having said that, an at large bid isn’t fully guaranteed for Hopkins. If the B1G winds up being a two-team conference for an NCAA tournament bid (AQ + at large), Blue Jays are in. The likelihood is very high.

No. If the B1G is a 2 bid league, it is because PSU won the AQ and MD is the at-large. MD is still in better position than Hopkins. You can argue that Hopkins beat MD twice, which mean Hopkins is in over MD but I'm sure fans of Rutgers' lacrosse would revel in the irony if it happened the other way around.

[Typical Lax Dad]

If they get hammered by PSU tomorrow and given what Hopkins has shown over the last 4-5 years that has not shown up in the NCAA tournament, I think the committee is going to look hard very hard at whether a Hopkins team should be in the tournament.

You're wrong. "Team X hasn't done well in the tournament recently" is not one of the selection criteria the committee uses. You are projecting your frustration with recent results on the selection committee. They don't care. They have never cared. Barring total mayhem in some of the other conference tournaments, Hopkins is in a great position to secure an at-large berth if we lose to PSU, based on the actual criteria they use to evaluate the teams.

This is a correct view IMO. The past week was huge, but folks need to pump the brakes on Hopkins being somehow a lock for the tournament at this point. Still need a lot to go right in other conferences to avoid some very sweaty palms on Sunday.

I gather a lot of these comments reflect a growing reliance on what people read on Laxbytes and similar sites. One major drawback to those models is that AFAIK they have no way of accounting for head-to-head. This can really skew things when we're talking about a direct comparison between 2-3 teams for a final bid. If it were to come down to Hopkins and Towson, say, Towson's head-to-head win would be a major factor, probably decisive unless Hop were very far ahead on other metrics. But Laxbytes doesn't "know" any of that, so you have to adjust/discount whatever numbers you see there accordingly.

I think given that Cornell>Towson>Hopkins on the field (and Cornell and Towson have better high-end wins BTW), the best you can say is that it's far from clear that in a direct comparison where you had to take just 1 or 2 of the 3 that Hop would be the one coming out on the right side of that.

If head-to-head becomes a factor, then Hopkins is going to get in over Maryland, so it wouldn't even matter if Towson (or Cornell) gets in over them.

The only scenario I see in which the Jays would miss out at this point is if Towson and Loyola BOTH lose their conferences, and Cornell beats Yale. That would also knock out Maryland. And even then I'm not sure what the data would be but Hop still might have a case over Cornell.

I don't see how Maryland gets in and JHU does not...but stranger things have happened. Brown got in based solely on head to head versus Princeton in 2015. Princeton had wins over three teams that made the tourney that year and Brown had a win over one. Three way tie for first in the league. Princeton and Yale advanced to the final and Brown still got in based on head to head.

[HopFan16]

No. If the B1G is a 2 bid league, it is because PSU won the AQ and MD is the at-large. MD is still in better position than Hopkins. You can argue that Hopkins beat MD twice, which mean Hopkins is in over MD but I'm sure fans of Rutgers' lacrosse would revel in the irony if it happened the other way around.

Wrong again. Hop's numbers are now better than Marylands—to say nothing of the two head-to-head wins.

When we got in over Rutgers that year it was because our overall resumes were in different stratospheres. The head-to-head wasn't enough to bridge that gap. But this year ours and Maryland are pretty similar.

As much as it seems like you want this to happen so that you can fire the coach quicker, there is almost no scenario in which Maryland gets in and we do not.

[DocBarrister]

There is absolutely no way you can say Cornell and Towson are better than Hopkins “on the field.” Right now, on the field, Hopkins is playing top-tier lacrosse.

Was Hopkins playing top-tier lacrosse 12 days ago? Was that top-tier lacrosse I saw in net on Saturday?

As I said, they've beat the same team twice in the last 6 days. They certainly should be commended for that because losses in both games puts them out but I'd don't think I would call a 2 game win streak top-tier lacrosse. They beat PSU and we can start having a discussion.

Having said that, an at large bid isn’t fully guaranteed for Hopkins. If the B1G winds up being a two-team conference for an NCAA tournament bid (AQ + at large), Blue Jays are in. The likelihood is very high.

No. If the B1G is a 2 bid league, it is because PSU won the AQ and MD is the at-large. MD is still in better position than Hopkins. You can argue that Hopkins beat MD twice, which mean Hopkins is in over MD but I'm sure fans of Rutgers' lacrosse would revel in the irony if it happened the other way around.

Your assertions are simply irrational. Hopkins will have a top ten RPI and the best SOS after playing Penn State.

In addition, Hopkins didn’t just beat Maryland, Hopkins beat Maryland by five goals TWICE. Rutgers never did that. I think even Cooter and the Maryland fans in this forum acknowledge that Hopkins is ahead of Maryland in the line for at large bids.

DocBarrister

[wgdsr]

i'd be pretty surprised if hopkins got in as an at large and maryland didn't.
rpi isn't even a selection criterion. it's made the rounds more than once that it's been brought up as a factor, but i also remember that being the case when the rpi number was significantly different. to break a "tie". they are not significantly different at all. don't think rpi will matter, most of the teams for that spot are pretty bunched @ rpi.

maryland has better top x wins, more of them, and they have "better" losses because there would be much fewer of them. richmond might even sneak into the top 20, too. maryland has common opponent win also vs o st. in top 20, vs a hop loss.

the only thing hop has is head to head and sos vs maryland. wins and losses trump that, imo.

edit: as homer said -- much of it will come down to whether there are several teams for several spots minus 1 or 2. then head-to-head may factor in, depending on which teams those are.

[Typical Lax Dad]

i'd be pretty surprised if hopkins got in as an at large and maryland didn't.
rpi isn't even a selection criterion. it's made the rounds more than once that it's been brought up as a factor, but i also remember that being the case when the rpi number was significantly different. to break a "tie". they are not significantly different at all. don't think rpi will matter, most of the teams for that spot are pretty bunched @ rpi.

maryland has better top x wins, more of them, and they have "better" losses because there would be much fewer of them. richmond might even sneak into the top 20, too. maryland has common opponent win also vs o st. in top 20, vs a hop loss.

the only thing hop has is head to head and sos vs maryland. wins and losses trump that, imo.

edit: as homer said -- much of it will come down to whether there are several teams for several spots minus 1 or 2. then head-to-head may factor in, depending on which teams those are.

I was thinking if it was for the last at large slot. If all the tournaments are chalk, they both are likely in.

[wgdsr]

yes on the latter, but upsets... i don't ever recall a team with 4 top 20 wins (and in this case a top 5 or 10 as well) not make the tournament. from that, i believe it's the most important factor, going away. losing out to a team whose wins are 11, 11 and 17 because of head-to-head?

i don't see it. i see maryland in before towson and cornell as well, and hopkins having to stack up against one or both of those 2 for the last several spots. maybe syracuse also.

[DocBarrister]

i'd be pretty surprised if hopkins got in as an at large and maryland didn't.
rpi isn't even a selection criterion. it's made the rounds more than once that it's been brought up as a factor, but i also remember that being the case when the rpi number was significantly different. to break a "tie". they are not significantly different at all. don't think rpi will matter, most of the teams for that spot are pretty bunched @ rpi.

maryland has better top x wins, more of them, and they have "better" losses because there would be much fewer of them. richmond might even sneak into the top 20, too. maryland has common opponent win also vs o st. in top 20, vs a hop loss.

the only thing hop has is head to head and sos vs maryland. wins and losses trump that, imo.

edit: as homer said -- much of it will come down to whether there are several teams for several spots minus 1 or 2. then head-to-head may factor in, depending on which teams those are.

I hear what you’re saying, but this isn’t just head-to-head. It’s TWO head-to-head wins by Hopkins over Maryland, and those games weren’t squeakers.

We all know the selection committee has a lot of discretion in deciding the final at large choices. If it comes down to choosing between Hopkins and Maryland, the committee will find a way to choose Hopkins over Maryland. I doubt even Coach Tillman would argue against that.

DocBarrister

[HopFan16]

Man some of these posts are going to age very poorly by Sunday night.

[oldjayfan]

Exactly Hopfan!

[Typical Lax Dad]

yes on the latter, but upsets... i don't ever recall a team with 4 top 20 wins (and in this case a top 5 or 10 as well) not make the tournament. from that, i believe it's the most important factor, going away. losing out to a team whose wins are 11, 11 and 17 because of head-to-head?

i don't see it. i see maryland in before towson and cornell as well, and hopkins having to stack up against one or both of those 2 for the last several spots. maybe syracuse also.

Yes. If Brown and Cornell make the Ivy League final and Brown wins, Cornell will be at home.

[Hawkeye]

Man some of these posts are going to age very poorly by Sunday night.

People are worried about nothing. They keep moving the bar of what Hopkins needs to do to get themselves in. They're worrying themselves to death.

Hopkins is in. It's done. There's nothing to worry about now. Almost everything fell Hopkins' way last night.

[Chitown]

I know that somebody may disagree but 2 things stuck out to me in the wonderful Thursday victory:

1. Our shot location in the 1st Half was miserable. The Maryland goalie did not "stand on his head". He is left-handed and all our shots were waist to chin high on his left side. We were just playing catch with him. Beginning of the 2nd Half, all our shots were low or were bounce shots. The MD goalie looked frozen. Simple conversation in the locker room" Shoot low or bounce".


2. Our Goalie was not "bad" in the 1st half. Our D hung him out to dry. Shots right off the crease or 5-7 yard shots because of an early slide and no second slide.


Energy was great and I can't begin to tell you how important that is for GBs, defense, rides, clears, moving the ball on offense. Infects the whole game.


Penn State will be a different game. MD's offense is methodical. Penn State's is fast moving with passes and cutters. Can't afford to get behind early.


Given the "beating" that PSU gave us in the last meeting, you have to think that the BLUE (sorry Michigan, but I know what the players say in the huddle) will be very psyched up to play well . I think that PSU is beatable. GO BLUE!

[jhu06]

Man some of these posts are going to age very poorly by Sunday night.

People are worried about nothing. They keep moving the bar of what Hopkins needs to do to get themselves in. They're worrying themselves to death.

Hopkins is in. It's done. There's nothing to worry about now. Almost everything fell Hopkins' way last night.

this is pre ivy/patriot league.

to miss the ncaas brown, someone other than loyola, and delaware ALL have to win their conference tournaments or at least 2/3.
the most likely scenario I guess has us at an ivy or loyola.

https://www.uslaxmagazine.com/college/m ... semifinals

9-6 against teams that've previously beaten Hopkins that year, 9-7 against number 1 ranked teams. 0-2 in last 2 against penn state.
https://hopkinssports.com/news/2019/5/3 ... notes.aspx

[DocBarrister]

I know that somebody may disagree but 2 things stuck out to me in the wonderful Thursday victory:

1. Our shot location in the 1st Half was miserable. The Maryland goalie did not "stand on his head". He is left-handed and all our shots were waist to chin high on his left side. We were just playing catch with him. Beginning of the 2nd Half, all our shots were low or were bounce shots. The MD goalie looked frozen. Simple conversation in the locker room" Shoot low or bounce".


2. Our Goalie was not "bad" in the 1st half. Our D hung him out to dry. Shots right off the crease or 5-7 yard shots because of an early slide and no second slide.


Energy was great and I can't begin to tell you how important that is for GBs, defense, rides, clears, moving the ball on offense. Infects the whole game.


Penn State will be a different game. MD's offense is methodical. Penn State's is fast moving with passes and cutters. Can't afford to get behind early.


Given the "beating" that PSU gave us in the last meeting, you have to think that the BLUE (sorry Michigan, but I know what the players say in the huddle) will be very psyched up to play well . I think that PSU is beatable. GO BLUE!

Agree. Penn State is a terrific team, but they’re not unbeatable. With the short turnaround, I say drop all the gimmick defense, play the defense Hopkins knows best and play it well, and see how things go. Blue Jays know what they must do to beat Penn State ... everyone play their best game of the year.

It’s the B1G championship game ... the young men should have some fun after all their hard work this season.

DocBarrister

[WOMBAT, Mod Emeritus]

Man some of these posts are going to age very poorly by Sunday night.

It’s koolaid season.

Hell, some of last night’s first half comments aged poorly.

[Matnum PI]

Hopkins looked great last night. Firing on all cylinders. Definitely in the tournament and definitely primed to beat every team including PSU. Nothing can go wrong now.

[WOMBAT, Mod Emeritus]

Hopkins looked great last night. Firing on all cylinders. Definitely in the tournament and definitely primed to beat every team including PSU. Nothing can go wrong now.

You are trying to jinx it.

[Matnum PI]