Re: Conservatives and Liberals
Posted: Wed Oct 04, 2023 2:50 pm
Your jumping the gun. If gas is 3 dollars a gallon and 401k accounts bounce back by November 2024 nothing your talking about today will matter to the voters. You should never underestimate the short term memory of most Americans.MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 04, 2023 1:52 pmYes, if Jordan gets the reins, that's what we should expect. And probably a long shutdown. If he take the gig, it will be subservient to the right wing extremists...and we see their demands...PizzaSnake wrote: ↑Wed Oct 04, 2023 11:19 am“better to be prepared”MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 04, 2023 11:00 amYes, but the alternative for the moderates and Ukraine supporters looks even worse. Maybe it's a kick the can down the road mentality that gets them stuck with a long government shutdown and failure to support Ukraine and stupid impeachment hearings ad infinitum, but I think those who are used to working across the aisle are very likely looking to how they can aggregate enough support to make that work...I don't think we see that fully emerge until the R's screw the pooch some more, with it being obvious why they can't let the extreme rule. Maybe Jim Jordan takes it on, but if he doesn't shut down the government the extreme won't let him stay and if he doesn't put up a vote to fund Ukraine I can see the moderates taking him down. Scalise has the same problem, though his style would be less inflammatory than Jordan. I think Scalise would be stupid to take it without rule changes. Jordan might be willing.Seacoaster(1) wrote: ↑Wed Oct 04, 2023 10:21 amGood post. I agree that there is a deal to be made, but the likelihood of such a deal seems very remote given the hard-liners' early statements, like the one I posted above, and the absolute intensity of the base that they have created against "working with Democrats." In a government structurally created to force and strike deals made in the name of consensus, working with Democrats is the death knell of a GOP politicians career, or at least an expensive primary from the "right." In order for it to work -- a coalition of sorts -- part of the erstwhile GOP caucus actually will need to step out of those straightjackets and into the fire.MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 04, 2023 10:01 amAfter the 6-20 firebrands scream and shout and make demands alienating everyone else, I think the Problem Solvers Caucus eventually puts together a set of commitments and rule changes that puts either one of their own or someone like Tom Cole in place, with Dem crossover support sufficient to exceed the 218.Seacoaster(1) wrote: ↑Wed Oct 04, 2023 9:17 amI wondered about this too, while reading the news this morning. McCarthy was the moron we knew (I like doughnuts, and they have some utility, so I don't want to call him that). Rather than keeping their powder dry and their performance art mouths shut, GOP House members were, last night and this morning, calling for Trump to be Speaker, and issuing demands and conditions on anyone who might run for the Speakership. Anna Paulina Luna, QR of Florida, laid down three conditions:Farfromgeneva wrote: ↑Tue Oct 03, 2023 9:02 pmDems made a mistake. They won’t like the vacuum this creates I feel pretty confident. Even if McCarthy is a doughnut.youthathletics wrote: ↑Tue Oct 03, 2023 5:24 pmHere we go...https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/ ... index.htmlSeacoaster(1) wrote: ↑Tue Oct 03, 2023 11:04 am Question: how do you think this Speaker fight resolves?
“I will vote for the Speaker [1] who publicly and clearly commits to defunding Jack Smith’s anti-American election interference witch hunts and [2] subpoenas Hunter Biden while [3] bringing a vote on impeachment of Joe Biden to the floor of the House.”
Pretty good idea to lay out an unworkable and implacable position in advance of a conference meeting when your party is in peril, when the country is realizing that you cannot even get players in place, to say nothing of govern?
The rational people in the GOP, whether actual conservatives or moderates, will mostly join that coalition, though some of the more conservative may feel compelled to side with the hard right burn down the house types, given the policy compromises this will entail and the threat of primary challenges. Likewise, some of the most progressive on the Dem side may not be able to crossover, given some of those same policy compromises.
But I suspect the PS Caucus members are already talking in the aftermath of the mess that went down yesterday. Both sides of that caucus have to be appalled at the idea of the extreme dominating going forward.
Apparently (according to McCarthy), last January Pelosi had assured McCarthy that the Dems would prevent the far right from controlling the Speakership when push came to shove, as she had assured Boehner and Ryan...but McCarthy blew the trust down the stretch and his comments blaming Dems over the weekend was the nail in the coffin.
But that doesn't mean they aren't willing to help build a consensus Leadership with R's in charge...but with some power sharing and demonstrated willingness to compromise on various issues. A solid majority on both sides believe supporting Ukraine is essential...R's want tough border policies, the Dems want more dollars for judges and personnel and more legal immigration...there's a deal to be made as Biden and the Dems don't want this issue to persist into the 2024 election cycle with the current sense that they're soft on the border. There's probably a similar set of compromises around crime...and voting...
And of course, these can be largely done within the budget parameters set last spring, albeit with some emergency funding and Ukraine funding.
The extreme will howl, but they're earning a whole lot of animosity from within the GOP Caucus as it is. It's probably the only way the most vulnerable GOP House members have a chance of holding their seats in a general, though they'll possibly need to beat back primary challenges from the extreme right.
Divided government can work to put brakes on the party in most control, but it needs to be practical and realistic. Elections matter.
So, better to be prepared next week with what those compromises and rule changes would need to be. Might not put that forward right away, but it'll likely be floated...you already see Dems signaling openness.
Prepared for a shutdown. I continue to be amazed at how fragile our governance is. I’d like to think it is Putin’s well-placed bribery and kompromat, but probably just an inevitable result of the intersection of demographics (aging Boomers) and unrealized aspirations. Sure can see the antelope as it passes through the snake.
The blowback will be disastrous for the moderates in the GOP in vulnerable districts and damage the brand heavily...but not among the knuckleheads who get a thrill from theatrics and fireworks. And that's what millions of their small dollar MAGA donors want.
We'll also likely see disaster for Ukraine as well. Putin is cheering.
While this will benefit Dems electorally in a year, I think most of the elected Dems are more concerned about the good of the country in the meantime. Not all, but most.
Fingers crossed for the rational folks in both sides to get together and bring some sanity.