LaxPower Back-Up Stick

oldjayfan wrote: ↑Fri May 03, 2019 9:25 am Coach gets so little credit on this board--and elsewhere. Holding a team like UMd to 1 second half goal is impressive. Further. making turtle soup 2 games in a row is quite impressive. Let's knock off the lions this w/e! Go Hop!!

xxxxxxx wrote: ↑Fri May 03, 2019 10:19 am Oh how I love the Hopkins thread, never a dull moment, it's great, and congrats on a big win!

HopFan16 wrote: ↑Fri May 03, 2019 9:19 am

steel_hop wrote: ↑Fri May 03, 2019 8:43 am

HopFan16 wrote: ↑Thu May 02, 2019 9:44 pm Ok, Petro can stay

Winning 2 games against an overrated UMd team doesn't change the calculus.

You can't fire the guy after throttling Maryland twice in a week. I doubt there's going to be as much of an appetite for it among the alums/admin now regardless.

51percentcorn wrote: ↑Fri May 03, 2019 10:14 am As far as Petro - this MAY be the best opportunity to get Nadelen if you really want him. If not mistaken - his Towson contract is up this year and I have not seen a renewal announcement - maybe I missed it. Wait for Petro to play out the string - you don't have to buy him out but you might owe Towson a whole bunch of money.

Surprised there were crickets in response to the face-off issue. No way they put Wes out there because they felt comfortable with a 3 goal lead. I can almost guaranty that.

Trying to figure out how to shock the world on Saturday and I just can't get there. But - I was certainly wrong about the semi-final game - I thought we would have to dominate face-offs again - Hopkins didn't - I thought for sure Maryland would not be as sloppy - they were worse - and I thought Darby would have to be alot better - except for a very brief flurry - he really wasn't. To get the AQ I think - strangely enough - they have to do some of the same things they did in the rout at Panzer - limit O'Keefe, make Ament more of a scorer - in addition they need to:
- Win face-offs - Wes N vs Arceri would not be fair - one of the best vs. a kid who face-off opportunities could be counted without taking off your shoes - Prouty or Matt N have to be able to go and get the starting possessions to something in the 40's
- Darby - if I recall correctly - didn't play absolutely horrible (and was not responsible for the loss) but he has to be able to corral some outside shots - if the Lions start out like Maryland - 5-1/6-2 - and virtually 100% SOG% - you are not coming back - have to stay within shouting distance at all times
- Can't have 7 fouls for 6 minutes man down vs 1 30 second EMO - even though the man down was maybe the lone bright spot in that game - I wouldn't recommend it
- Epstein has to figure something out - 0 goals, 3 TOs only 6 shots - he's Hopkins best offensive player
- Can't get out gb'd by 13 and can't allow 33 SOG - even if Darby stood on his head and made 20 saves - they still would have had 13 on the scoreboard
- But most of all - you have to shorten the game and shorten their runs - they scored 3 goals in a minute to turn 1-1 into 4-1 and 5 goals in about 5 minutes to turn semi competitive 4-2 to 9-3 and another 3 goal run in 90 seconds to put any thought of 9-5 becoming competitive into 12-5 turn out the lights

Hopkins gave an incredible effort last night. It will take another one and that may not even be enough - I would like to see a game where they give that effort and at least have PSU paying attention

Big Dog wrote: ↑Fri May 03, 2019 10:30 am

HopFan16 wrote: ↑Fri May 03, 2019 9:19 am You can't fire the guy after throttling Maryland twice in a week. I doubt there's going to be as much of an appetite for it among the alums/admin now regardless.

Just the opposite. You give him a 3-year extension, with plenty of incentives BlG Title, FF) plus small buyout. Otherwise, recruits will question whether they guy offering them will even be around when they show up on campus.

51percentcorn wrote: ↑Fri May 03, 2019 10:14 amHopkins gave an incredible effort last night. It will take another one and that may not even be enough - I would like to see a game where they give that effort and at least have PSU paying attention

51percentcorn wrote: ↑Fri May 03, 2019 10:14 am
Surprised there were crickets in response to the face-off issue. No way they put Wes out there because they felt comfortable with a 3 goal lead. I can almost guaranty that.

Peter Brown wrote: ↑Fri May 03, 2019 9:40 am

oldjayfan wrote: ↑Fri May 03, 2019 9:25 am Coach gets so little credit on this board--and elsewhere. Holding a team like UMd to 1 second half goal is impressive. Further. making turtle soup 2 games in a row is quite impressive. Let's knock off the lions this w/e! Go Hop!!

I didn't see Petro on the field...?

My guess is the HOP players got sick of the HC's dreadful and debilitating sideline body language, and simply took it upon themselves to play like the season was on the line. That energy will last only so long.

If HOP can beat or even get close to PSU, I'll cheer for the kids to keep it going in the NCAA's. But for this weekend's tilt, HOP will need actual coaching (in addition to the different mindset they brought against the Terps 2x).

If PSU crushes HOP, I don't see HOP getting an invite into the NCAA's. And I see Petro in the HOP rearview mirror.

oldjayfan wrote: ↑Fri May 03, 2019 11:05 am

Peter Brown wrote: ↑Fri May 03, 2019 9:40 am

oldjayfan wrote: ↑Fri May 03, 2019 9:25 am Coach gets so little credit on this board--and elsewhere. Holding a team like UMd to 1 second half goal is impressive. Further. making turtle soup 2 games in a row is quite impressive. Let's knock off the lions this w/e! Go Hop!!

I didn't see Petro on the field...?

My guess is the HOP players got sick of the HC's dreadful and debilitating sideline body language, and simply took it upon themselves to play like the season was on the line. That energy will last only so long.

If HOP can beat or even get close to PSU, I'll cheer for the kids to keep it going in the NCAA's. But for this weekend's tilt, HOP will need actual coaching (in addition to the different mindset they brought against the Terps 2x).

If PSU crushes HOP, I don't see HOP getting an invite into the NCAA's. And I see Petro in the HOP rearview mirror.

Is he on the field when they're making bonehead decisions and throwing the ball away? No, but I'm sure you criticize him for those errors! Poor snowflakes having to endure a coach's poor body language! Sorry your son got yelled and not consoled for screwing up!!

HopFan16 wrote: ↑Fri May 03, 2019 10:58 am

51percentcorn wrote: ↑Fri May 03, 2019 10:14 am
Surprised there were crickets in response to the face-off issue. No way they put Wes out there because they felt comfortable with a 3 goal lead. I can almost guaranty that.

Are you saying both Prouty and Younger Narewski were hurt? Prouty took his last faceoff at 9:08 in the 4th quarter and got beat cleanly off the whistle, then ran off the field. At that point Maryland's Shockey had won I believe 7 of the 10 faceoffs in the second half—neither Prouty nor Narewski were doing especially well. It seems more like they went to Narewski the Elder as a change-up at 3:45 in the 4th. He actually won his first draw (ok, it was more of a lucky bounce, and Foley picked up the GB). So it's not shocking he came out for another one, which came with 1:50 left and the Jays up by 4—the game was pretty much over at that point anyway. The final one came at a minute left with the Jays now up by 5. No reason to throw Prouty or Younger Narewski out there then.

Perhaps they're both a little banged up but I didn't see anything on TV to suggest one or both won't be able to go on Saturday. Maybe someone who was at the game can shed some light on this.

51percentcorn wrote: ↑Fri May 03, 2019 11:38 am

HopFan16 wrote: ↑Fri May 03, 2019 10:58 am

51percentcorn wrote: ↑Fri May 03, 2019 10:14 am
Surprised there were crickets in response to the face-off issue. No way they put Wes out there because they felt comfortable with a 3 goal lead. I can almost guaranty that.

Are you saying both Prouty and Younger Narewski were hurt? Prouty took his last faceoff at 9:08 in the 4th quarter and got beat cleanly off the whistle, then ran off the field. At that point Maryland's Shockey had won I believe 7 of the 10 faceoffs in the second half—neither Prouty nor Narewski were doing especially well. It seems more like they went to Narewski the Elder as a change-up at 3:45 in the 4th. He actually won his first draw (ok, it was more of a lucky bounce, and Foley picked up the GB). So it's not shocking he came out for another one, which came with 1:50 left and the Jays up by 4—the game was pretty much over at that point anyway. The final one came at a minute left with the Jays now up by 5. No reason to throw Prouty or Younger Narewski out there then.

Perhaps they're both a little banged up but I didn't see anything on TV to suggest one or both won't be able to go on Saturday. Maybe someone who was at the game can shed some light on this.

I'm saying it would be extremely out of character for this coaching staff to only be down 3 face-offs- 11-8 - trying to protect a 3 goal lead with their season absolutely on the line to throw a kid out there who has taken 6 draws all year (and lost 4 of them). Kudos to them if they thought an absolute change of pace was required and were willing to try it in that situation. Also from the eye test - the face-offs were very competitive 50-50 gb affairs.

WOMBAT, Mod Emeritus wrote: ↑Fri May 03, 2019 10:25 am

xxxxxxx wrote: ↑Fri May 03, 2019 10:19 am Oh how I love the Hopkins thread, never a dull moment, it's great, and congrats on a big win!

New, improved, fewer cats.

HopFan16 wrote: ↑Fri May 03, 2019 9:19 am

You can't fire the guy after throttling Maryland twice in a week. I doubt there's going to be as much of an appetite for it among the alums/admin now regardless. And after it looked like a near impossibility a few weeks ago, it doesn't look like we're going to miss the NCAA tournament. At this point I think you let him play out the final year of his contract and then see. Renewing it is another question entirely.

wgdsr wrote: ↑Fri May 03, 2019 11:06 am excellent defensive effort.
1st domino to watch may be tonight in the ivy. if cornell wins, noose'll be tighter and hop might be playing for their playoff lives.
and y'all should be big loyola and maybe towson fans.
i have the jays bubble out right now unless there's chalk in ivy, patriot and caa.
no chalk and you have a host of teams for a couple spots and hopkins' 7 losses and meh wins vs their competitors will weigh on them.

Homer wrote: ↑Fri May 03, 2019 12:23 pm

wgdsr wrote: ↑Fri May 03, 2019 11:06 am excellent defensive effort.
1st domino to watch may be tonight in the ivy. if cornell wins, noose'll be tighter and hop might be playing for their playoff lives.
and y'all should be big loyola and maybe towson fans.
i have the jays bubble out right now unless there's chalk in ivy, patriot and caa.
no chalk and you have a host of teams for a couple spots and hopkins' 7 losses and meh wins vs their competitors will weigh on them.

This is a correct view IMO. The past week was huge, but folks need to pump the brakes on Hopkins being somehow a lock for the tournament at this point. Still need a lot to go right in other conferences to avoid some very sweaty palms on Sunday.

I gather a lot of these comments reflect a growing reliance on what people read on Laxbytes and similar sites. One major drawback to those models is that AFAIK they have no way of accounting for head-to-head. This can really skew things when we're talking about a direct comparison between 2-3 teams for a final bid. If it were to come down to Hopkins and Towson, say, Towson's head-to-head win would be a major factor, probably decisive unless Hop were very far ahead on other metrics. But Laxbytes doesn't "know" any of that, so you have to adjust/discount whatever numbers you see there accordingly.

I think given that Cornell>Towson>Hopkins on the field (and Cornell and Towson have better high-end wins BTW), the best you can say is that it's far from clear that in a direct comparison where you had to take just 1 or 2 of the 3 that Hop would be the one coming out on the right side of that.