Military readiness

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Brooklyn
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Re: Military readiness

Post by Brooklyn »

old salt wrote: Wed May 22, 2024 4:00 am
https://www.wsj.com/articles/america-hi ... x_artPos=4

America Hits the Global Snooze Button
In an increasingly alarming world, the West can’t afford to rest for much longer.
by Walter Russell Mead, May 20, 2024

Many Americans still don’t fully grasp how serious the international situation has become. Iran has set the Middle East ablaze, Russia is advancing in Ukraine, and China is pursuing pressure campaigns against Japan, Taiwan and the Philippines.

Even more challenging times lie ahead ...

If we ignore Ukraine and the Middle East to focus on China, then Russia and Iran can undermine our alliances and shift the geopolitical balance in their favor. If we focus on Russia’s war in Ukraine, then China and Iran can advance their own regional plans.

To avoid this, some argue that the U.S. should simultaneously confront our adversaries across all three theaters.

Security analysts generally believe that relatively modest defense increases by Washington could stabilize the military balance. That, plus a mix of more forceful American diplomacy and deeper cooperation with key allies, might halt the slide to war.

Team Biden, unfortunately, would rather starve the military and embrace the diplomacy of retreat. There is an off-ramp for every provocation, a search for a “diplomatic solution” to every military attack.

This can’t last. Our adversaries have ambitious goals. We face an increasingly successful and ambitious assault on the U.S.’s international position. Either we and our allies recover our military might and political will, or our foes will fatally undermine the edifice of American power and the international order that depends on it.

So much pro war propaganda in that delusional writing.

First, what goes on overseas is none of our goddamn business. Russia & Ukraine have been in conflict for over a thousand years. Giving Zelenskyy money won't end that conflict. It will only prolong it. Taiwan belongs to China as we've discussed before. This is the first time I've heard the myth that China has imperial ambitions in the Philippines. Iran has been targeted and victimized by the USA since 1953. To this day the crooked capitalists who stole their oil have not compensated them. None of these parties overseas are our adversaries as that New World Order delusional believes.

"starve the military" ~ Clearly an idiotic fairy tale as "In FY 2024, the Department of Defense (DOD) had $2.02 Trillion ..."

source: Google


"international position" ~ As I wrote above, none of the crap that takes place overseas is any concern of ours. We need to turn off the domestic snooze button and to rebuild the infrastructure, to create universal health care, to stop police corruption and abuses by forcing them (not taxpayers) to pay for their crimes, to compel corporations to use their profits to clean up the pollution they caused, etc. Thousands die every year from lack of health care, from diseases caused by pollution, and from crime. In fact, the numbers exceed the tens of thousands. Many of them preventable by utilizing pragmatic social policies which are readily available. Let's solve our problem, let those overseas solve their own. New World Order be damned.



Oh, by the way, impose a 100% excess profits tax on all war profits. That will shut up the likes of Mead and other pro war apologists.
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Re: Military readiness

Post by Typical Lax Dad »

“You lucky I ain’t read wretched yet!”
PizzaSnake
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Re: Military readiness

Post by PizzaSnake »

Inevitable denouement of this.

"There is nothing more difficult and more dangerous to carry through than initiating changes. One makes enemies of those who prospered under the old order, and only lukewarm support from those who would prosper under the new."
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old salt
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Re: Military readiness

Post by old salt »

As we run out of critical munitions for Ukraine, withhold them from Israel, & Biden's Gaza Pier virtue signal breaks apart & drifts ashore,
...this article seems prescient.
https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/a ... -fix-that/

America Is Not Ready for War. This Senator Wants to Fix That

by JOHN NOONAN, May 29, 2024

There’s an old Roman axiom that goes, “He who desires peace should prepare for war.” America is in a 1930s moment, in which the global threat environment is flashing red, but the U.S. seems altogether too comfortable in our unpreparedness.

Senator Roger Wicker, the ranking Republican on the Armed Services Committee, has decided that the U.S. military needs to bulk up. Today he unveiled a long-overdue $55 billion plan to end three decades of lost wars and military atrophy. If the flag goes up in the South China Sea, as it has in Ukraine and the Red Sea, Wicker wants to be ready.

The big defense budgets of the Cold War were born of necessity. After World Wars I and II, U.S. leaders decided that being pulled into global wars was not in America’s best interests. Their wager was that a big U.S. military, forward-deployed near the bad guys, was the best way to ensure good behavior from bad actors. They were correct. The idea of deterrence was not invented by the Pentagon, but during the Cold War the U.S. certainly perfected it. A war with the Soviets would have decimated our country and left it bankrupt and ruined. Instead, the USSR meekly lowered its flag over the Kremlin, withdrew from East Germany, and dissolved itself. America went on to prosper. What a difference a little resolve makes.

Like the Cold Warriors of old, Wicker has a few big problems to solve. Despite all the irritating jawing about the “military–industrial complex,” American defense manufacturing is a shadow of its former self. Munition reserves have been depleted, the workers who turned wrenches on production lines have fled to more profitable industries, our Navy fleet has shrunk to half its 1980s strength, and the number of big defense companies collapsed in the 1990s from over 50 to just five today. We have a severe shortage of attack submarines, many sophisticated weapon lines have subcontracted parts made in China, the Air Force flies entire fleets of jets that would qualify for antique license plates in most states, and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan forced Pentagon officials to cancel important modernization programs to pay for light-infantry combat across the Middle East.

The timing is lousy. China is on the rise and in a de facto alliance with the Russians, who are inching closer to U.S. bases in Europe. The Iranians have been busy little bees in the Middle East, attacking U.S. shipping lanes and driving up the cost of commodities — as if inflation weren’t bad enough. The North Koreans continue to be unpleasant little weirdos with a big army and a lot of artillery. The Cold War was easy in comparison.

I suspect Senator Wicker shares my (perhaps selfish) preference that America not be drawn into a third world war. I put three friends in the dirt over in Arlington National Cemetery and did not enjoy the experience. Deterrence is hard work. And it costs money. It also happens to be much less work and far less expensive in treasure and blood than being pulled into a war.

Wicker’s plan, as it is, is to stop doing things that don’t work and start doing things that do. Returning to Cold War levels of force posture and readiness would work. Continuing with penny-wise, pound-foolish policies, like fielding a bargain military that deters no one and loses to China, would not.

The goals are ambitious. At least 50 more battle-force ships. Hundreds of new combat-coded aircraft. A new emphasis on defense tech, modernization, and logistics — all of which are still relics of the industrial era and Cold War. It would plug our submarine gap, where America cannot field the number of attack and guided-missile subs needed to execute war plans. And it would spark new manufacturing lines that replenish depleted munitions, filled to the brim with American workers, and innovative new enterprises churning out war-winning battlefield solutions at a pace that matches the speed of the commercial sector.

Rebuilding is necessary, but not the only necessity. Both the Pentagon and the supporting defense industry have hired too many middle managers and too few soldiers and engineers. Congressional and Pentagon policy-makers are so obsessed with defense industry profit margins that they would rather buy a $100 million widget from a company making 8 percent in returns than a superior $10 million widget from a company making 20 percent. Some lawmakers treat the Pentagon as if it’s the Postal Service, a place where you can wear a uniform and get a government salary and pension, and if it loses out to FedEx and UPS, so be it. Russia and China would not be so kind in victory.

Our command hierarchy is a bureaucratic labyrinth that oftentimes produces strategic gibberish. Our war colleges sit military dentists next to fighter pilots in classes that teach generic and useless 200-level international-relations seminars, more interested in university credentialing than producing war-winning leaders. We have no national maritime strategy, and we have regulated ourselves out of key industries like shipbuilding and certain weapons production. The Federal Acquisition Regulation, which guides how the government buys things, is an excessively complex mess that would make a mid-level Soviet bureaucrat green with envy at the sheer level of inefficiency it creates. We are terrible at buying software, which will be decisive in the next war, and the Army just introduced a strange policy document that announced its intention to return to dumb buying practices that resulted in multiple billion-dollar boondoggles.

But inadequate force structure, both in age and size, are the most immediate problems, and all others are mild annoyances in comparison. That’s what Wicker has set his sights on. Budget also happens to be a place where Congress has total control. He will need Senate appropriators to go along with the plan. Fortunately, the appropriators aren’t dumb and have seen the same intelligence warnings that have drained blood from faces in classified briefings in recent years.

We inherited a gift from the Greatest Generation. Not just victory over the Nazis and Imperial Japanese, but a largely stable world that allowed the West to prosper, live in peace, and triumph over communism. Some lawmakers treat that world as if it were an accident, rather than a product of hard sacrifices and an iron will to never allow the U.S. military to be second best.

Wicker has produced a blueprint to restore American might, defense manufacturing, and explosive innovativeness. Maybe if we’re lucky, we’ll accidentally do the right thing and adopt it.

JOHN NOONAN is a former staffer on defense and armed-service committees in the House and Senate, a veteran of the United States Air Force, and a senior adviser to POLARIS National Security. @noonanjo
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Re: Military readiness

Post by a fan »

old salt wrote: Wed May 29, 2024 10:30 pm I suspect Senator Wicker shares my (perhaps selfish) preference that America not be drawn into a third world war.
Hear, hear!!

I have no problem whatsoever with this plan. The only caveat is: pay for what we get. Pretty small ask. Raise taxes for the first time in 20+ years in a meaningful way....triply so for corporations that are skating, and sticking the bill to the middle class and small businesses that don't get these epic tax breaks.

And make the DoD pass a freaking audit every year. If they don't? Dock every General/Admiral/whatevers pay and pensions. Give them direct motivation, and watch what happens. And take a bunch of that money and modernize logistics and accounting practices.

Do that? This is a fine idea. Pretty crazy how old much of our hardware is. Even I understand that....thanks to your postings, OS.
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Re: Military readiness

Post by PizzaSnake »

old salt wrote: Wed May 29, 2024 10:30 pm As we run out of critical munitions for Ukraine, withhold them from Israel, & Biden's Gaza Pier virtue signal breaks apart & drifts ashore,
...this article seems prescient.
https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/a ... -fix-that/

America Is Not Ready for War. This Senator Wants to Fix That

by JOHN NOONAN, May 29, 2024

There’s an old Roman axiom that goes, “He who desires peace should prepare for war.” America is in a 1930s moment, in which the global threat environment is flashing red, but the U.S. seems altogether too comfortable in our unpreparedness.

Senator Roger Wicker, the ranking Republican on the Armed Services Committee, has decided that the U.S. military needs to bulk up. Today he unveiled a long-overdue $55 billion plan to end three decades of lost wars and military atrophy. If the flag goes up in the South China Sea, as it has in Ukraine and the Red Sea, Wicker wants to be ready.

The big defense budgets of the Cold War were born of necessity. After World Wars I and II, U.S. leaders decided that being pulled into global wars was not in America’s best interests. Their wager was that a big U.S. military, forward-deployed near the bad guys, was the best way to ensure good behavior from bad actors. They were correct. The idea of deterrence was not invented by the Pentagon, but during the Cold War the U.S. certainly perfected it. A war with the Soviets would have decimated our country and left it bankrupt and ruined. Instead, the USSR meekly lowered its flag over the Kremlin, withdrew from East Germany, and dissolved itself. America went on to prosper. What a difference a little resolve makes.

Like the Cold Warriors of old, Wicker has a few big problems to solve. Despite all the irritating jawing about the “military–industrial complex,” American defense manufacturing is a shadow of its former self. Munition reserves have been depleted, the workers who turned wrenches on production lines have fled to more profitable industries, our Navy fleet has shrunk to half its 1980s strength, and the number of big defense companies collapsed in the 1990s from over 50 to just five today. We have a severe shortage of attack submarines, many sophisticated weapon lines have subcontracted parts made in China, the Air Force flies entire fleets of jets that would qualify for antique license plates in most states, and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan forced Pentagon officials to cancel important modernization programs to pay for light-infantry combat across the Middle East.

The timing is lousy. China is on the rise and in a de facto alliance with the Russians, who are inching closer to U.S. bases in Europe. The Iranians have been busy little bees in the Middle East, attacking U.S. shipping lanes and driving up the cost of commodities — as if inflation weren’t bad enough. The North Koreans continue to be unpleasant little weirdos with a big army and a lot of artillery. The Cold War was easy in comparison.

I suspect Senator Wicker shares my (perhaps selfish) preference that America not be drawn into a third world war. I put three friends in the dirt over in Arlington National Cemetery and did not enjoy the experience. Deterrence is hard work. And it costs money. It also happens to be much less work and far less expensive in treasure and blood than being pulled into a war.

Wicker’s plan, as it is, is to stop doing things that don’t work and start doing things that do. Returning to Cold War levels of force posture and readiness would work. Continuing with penny-wise, pound-foolish policies, like fielding a bargain military that deters no one and loses to China, would not.

The goals are ambitious. At least 50 more battle-force ships. Hundreds of new combat-coded aircraft. A new emphasis on defense tech, modernization, and logistics — all of which are still relics of the industrial era and Cold War. It would plug our submarine gap, where America cannot field the number of attack and guided-missile subs needed to execute war plans. And it would spark new manufacturing lines that replenish depleted munitions, [b{filled to the brim with American workers, [/b]and innovative new enterprises churning out war-winning battlefield solutions at a pace that matches the speed of the commercial sector.

Rebuilding is necessary, but not the only necessity. Both the Pentagon and the supporting defense industry have hired too many middle managers and too few soldiers and engineers. Congressional and Pentagon policy-makers are so obsessed with defense industry profit margins that they would rather buy a $100 million widget from a company making 8 percent in returns than a superior $10 million widget from a company making 20 percent. Some lawmakers treat the Pentagon as if it’s the Postal Service, a place where you can wear a uniform and get a government salary and pension, and if it loses out to FedEx and UPS, so be it. Russia and China would not be so kind in victory.

Our command hierarchy is a bureaucratic labyrinth that oftentimes produces strategic gibberish. Our war colleges sit military dentists next to fighter pilots in classes that teach generic and useless 200-level international-relations seminars, more interested in university credentialing than producing war-winning leaders. We have no national maritime strategy, and we have regulated ourselves out of key industries like shipbuilding and certain weapons production. The Federal Acquisition Regulation, which guides how the government buys things, is an excessively complex mess that would make a mid-level Soviet bureaucrat green with envy at the sheer level of inefficiency it creates. We are terrible at buying software, which will be decisive in the next war, and the Army just introduced a strange policy document that announced its intention to return to dumb buying practices that resulted in multiple billion-dollar boondoggles.

But inadequate force structure, both in age and size, are the most immediate problems, and all others are mild annoyances in comparison. That’s what Wicker has set his sights on. Budget also happens to be a place where Congress has total control. He will need Senate appropriators to go along with the plan. Fortunately, the appropriators aren’t dumb and have seen the same intelligence warnings that have drained blood from faces in classified briefings in recent years.

We inherited a gift from the Greatest Generation. Not just victory over the Nazis and Imperial Japanese, but a largely stable world that allowed the West to prosper, live in peace, and triumph over communism. Some lawmakers treat that world as if it were an accident, rather than a product of hard sacrifices and an iron will to never allow the U.S. military to be second best.

Wicker has produced a blueprint to restore American might, defense manufacturing, and explosive innovativeness. Maybe if we’re lucky, we’ll accidentally do the right thing and adopt it.

JOHN NOONAN is a former staffer on defense and armed-service committees in the House and Senate, a veteran of the United States Air Force, and a senior adviser to POLARIS National Security. @noonanjo
American workers? Where are those going to come from? Our educational system scuks and the current graduates can’t build shite. And engineers? Forget it.

Shipbuilding? No skilled workers, welders, machinists, electricians.

Reversing decades of bad industrial policy will take, you guessed it, the same number of decades.

And it will have to start with retooling the educational system, not procurement reforms.

Also, don’t rebuild with 20th century ideas and infrastructure. Roll out the killbots.
"There is nothing more difficult and more dangerous to carry through than initiating changes. One makes enemies of those who prospered under the old order, and only lukewarm support from those who would prosper under the new."
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old salt
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Re: Military readiness

Post by old salt »

Make them Robot Killboats with AI Skippers. Already under development.
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Re: Military readiness

Post by a fan »

PizzaSnake wrote: Wed May 29, 2024 11:05 pm American workers? Where are those going to come from? Our educational system scuks and the current graduates can’t build shite. And engineers? Forget it.

Shipbuilding? No skilled workers, welders, machinists, electricians.

Reversing decades of bad industrial policy will take, you guessed it, the same number of decades.

And it will have to start with retooling the educational system, not procurement reforms.

Also, don’t rebuild with 20th century ideas and infrastructure. Roll out the killbots.
We can do both. We CHOOSE not to.

Raise taxes. Stop giving corporations a free ride and you'll be STUNNED at the amount of money in the US Treasury.

If i'm a Republican in the House or Senate? Trade higher taxes and education and training of US workers in exchange for rebuilding our military.

We can do magnificent things as a nation. Still do. We just need adults in government. Vote the extremists out, and watch what happens.....
PizzaSnake
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Re: Military readiness

Post by PizzaSnake »

a fan wrote: Wed May 29, 2024 11:17 pm
PizzaSnake wrote: Wed May 29, 2024 11:05 pm American workers? Where are those going to come from? Our educational system scuks and the current graduates can’t build shite. And engineers? Forget it.

Shipbuilding? No skilled workers, welders, machinists, electricians.

Reversing decades of bad industrial policy will take, you guessed it, the same number of decades.

And it will have to start with retooling the educational system, not procurement reforms.

Also, don’t rebuild with 20th century ideas and infrastructure. Roll out the killbots.
We can do both. We CHOOSE not to.

Raise taxes. Stop giving corporations a free ride and you'll be STUNNED at the amount of money in the US Treasury.

If i'm a Republican in the House or Senate? Trade higher taxes and education and training of US workers in exchange for rebuilding our military.

We can do magnificent things as a nation. Still do. We just need adults in government. Vote the extremists out, and watch what happens.....
Educating a new cohort of workers will take time. Period.
"There is nothing more difficult and more dangerous to carry through than initiating changes. One makes enemies of those who prospered under the old order, and only lukewarm support from those who would prosper under the new."
PizzaSnake
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Re: Military readiness

Post by PizzaSnake »

old salt wrote: Wed May 29, 2024 11:08 pm Make them Robot Killboats with AI Skippers. Already under development.
Oh, the “AI” killbots are most certainly on the way. Are humans smart enough to include a “kill” switch to didable them?

"There is nothing more difficult and more dangerous to carry through than initiating changes. One makes enemies of those who prospered under the old order, and only lukewarm support from those who would prosper under the new."
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Re: Military readiness

Post by a fan »

PizzaSnake wrote: Wed May 29, 2024 11:19 pm
a fan wrote: Wed May 29, 2024 11:17 pm
PizzaSnake wrote: Wed May 29, 2024 11:05 pm American workers? Where are those going to come from? Our educational system scuks and the current graduates can’t build shite. And engineers? Forget it.

Shipbuilding? No skilled workers, welders, machinists, electricians.

Reversing decades of bad industrial policy will take, you guessed it, the same number of decades.

And it will have to start with retooling the educational system, not procurement reforms.

Also, don’t rebuild with 20th century ideas and infrastructure. Roll out the killbots.
We can do both. We CHOOSE not to.

Raise taxes. Stop giving corporations a free ride and you'll be STUNNED at the amount of money in the US Treasury.

If i'm a Republican in the House or Senate? Trade higher taxes and education and training of US workers in exchange for rebuilding our military.

We can do magnificent things as a nation. Still do. We just need adults in government. Vote the extremists out, and watch what happens.....
Educating a new cohort of workers will take time. Period.
Sure. But as you know, it also takes YEARS for Congressional appropriations to go out as cash.

Optimism. Passed the CHip act. That's a first step. Make more steps.
DMac
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Re: Military readiness

Post by DMac »

This falls under military readiness only in that it's about a young soldier from the neighborhood home on leave from Germany who stopped by to say hello. But, hey, he's part of our military readiness and I figured this was as good a place to put it as any. Before he enlisted he was working for one of those outfits that sprays chemicals on your lawn to keep it healthy and beautiful (well, so they say anyway). Was, and is, a good kid. If not every time I saw him, certainly the majority of times, I encouraged him to go check out the opportunities the military has to offer and consider what kind of opportunities/future this outfit has to offer in comparison. There was no degrading or belittling going on there, just offering some alternatives to what the future likely held for him on the path he was on. He enlisted in the Army and is going to re-enlist when this one is up (little less than a year). Looks terrific, has confidence, has some pride, and likes what he's doing. Thanked me (again, have seen him while home on leave before) for the advice and encouragement. Just one of hundreds DMac has put in the military to keep you all safe. Hey, maybe I should go back to recruiting duty and get those numbers back up to where they should be!!! Lot of opportunity for many a young folk, more should consider it (nope, aint for everybody).
https://www.army.mil/article/226116/arm ... up_bonuses
This young soldier says he'll get $40K for another six-year commitment.
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Re: Military readiness

Post by youthathletics »

DMac wrote: Sun Jun 09, 2024 6:02 pm This falls under military readiness only in that it's about a young soldier from the neighborhood home on leave from Germany who stopped by to say hello. But, hey, he's part of our military readiness and I figured this was as good a place to put it as any. Before he enlisted he was working for one of those outfits that sprays chemicals on your lawn to keep it healthy and beautiful (well, so they say anyway). Was, and is, a good kid. If not every time I saw him, certainly the majority of times, I encouraged him to go check out the opportunities the military has to offer and consider what kind of opportunities/future this outfit has to offer in comparison. There was no degrading or belittling going on there, just offering some alternatives to what the future likely held for him on the path he was on. He enlisted in the Army and is going to re-enlist when this one is up (little less than a year). Looks terrific, has confidence, has some pride, and likes what he's doing. Thanked me (again, have seen him while home on leave before) for the advice and encouragement. Just one of hundreds DMac has put in the military to keep you all safe. Hey, maybe I should go back to recruiting duty and get those numbers back up to where they should be!!! Lot of opportunity for many a young folk, more should consider it (nope, aint for everybody).
https://www.army.mil/article/226116/arm ... up_bonuses
This young soldier says he'll get $40K for another six-year commitment.
Nice. The army is hiring retirees...you might make a great mentor/leader for recruiting.
A fraudulent intent, however carefully concealed at the outset, will generally, in the end, betray itself.
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Re: Military readiness

Post by youthathletics »

A fraudulent intent, however carefully concealed at the outset, will generally, in the end, betray itself.
~Livy
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Re: Military readiness

Post by old salt »

https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2024/0 ... kybox-post

Europeanize NATO to save it

If the alliance is to reach its century mark, the transatlantic partners must shift much of the responsibility of continental security to Europeans themselves.

By RACHEL RIZZO and MICHAEL BENHAMOU, JUNE 11, 2024

When NATO members gather next month to celebrate the alliance’s 75th anniversary, they must seize the opportunity to inoculate the vital collective-defense organization against shifts in U.S. geopolitical priorities.

The argument that the United States has for too long borne the burden of perceived European complacency continues to hold sway with many Americans. The bitter fight over Ukraine funding is only the latest sign of the entrenched skepticism toward Europe that has become a feature of American politics. It is unlikely to be a fleeting trend.

If NATO is to reach its century mark, the transatlantic partners must substantially shift the responsibility of continental European security to Europeans themselves.

A new NATO for a new century

European security no longer holds the pride of place in Washington policymakers’ thinking that it had during the Cold War. Biden’s recommitment to Europe—“The transatlantic alliance is back”—has materialized at a time when U.S. strategic interests are being pulled in other directions. For many prominent policymakers, China is the pre-eminent national security challenge of the coming generation. They believe that the U.S. should focus on the Indo-Pacific region and not spread itself too thinly across multiple theaters. Both U.S. political parties are united on the need to fend off competition from China, and most of the Pentagon’s long-term focus will remain on building industrial capacity to fight in the Indo-Pacific. “China is seeking to modernize [the PLA] across all domains of warfare in pursuit of its aims of reshaping the global power balance,” said the Defense Department’s 2023 China Military Power report, adding that “compared to the PLA's nuclear modernization efforts a decade ago, current efforts dwarf previous attempts in both scale and complexity.”

So the Pentagon is responding in kind, requesting $9.9 billion for the Department’s Pacific Deterrence Initiative in fiscal 2025. “The Department’s major investments and efforts focus on strengthening Indo-Pacific deterrence and building a resilient security architecture as part of a modernized Joint Force,” the comptroller said in budget documents.

But in Europe, where Russia—the successor to NATO’s founding foe—has mounted a war of conquest, U.S. force posture hasn’t grown by much. And although Supreme Allied Commander Gen. Christopher Cavoli has revamped the alliance’s defense plans since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, the United States has added only about 20,000 troops to its pre-invasion force, bringing the total today to around 100,000. Further, the Pentagon’s FY 2025 budget includes only $3.9 billion for “European deterrence and countering Russian aggression including the European Deterrence Initiative (EDI), NATO support, and NATO Security Investment Program.”

The hard numbers speak for themselves.

Europe will remain a vital interest of the United States, not only because of the size of its economy, but also because of its like-mindedness in terms of democratic values, and its role in defending and upholding the interests of the transatlantic partners. As a result, NATO will persist. But it’s time to stop pretending that the old relationship can ever be fully restored and recognize that geopolitical events have reshaped national priorities. Europe must be prepared for a range of futures for U.S. engagement—most notably, one where the U.S. prioritizes Asia. NATO, therefore, must adapt, and the upcoming summit is a unique opportunity to signal that NATO’s European allies are willing and prepared to shoulder responsibility for collective defense in Europe, rather than continuing to build around the strength of American defense capabilities.

A 25-year plan

So what might a 25-year plan to Europeanize NATO look like?

First, the European Union should play a greater role in procuring and mobilizing European defense resources to support NATO activities. The EU has funding capabilities that NATO lacks, like taking on debt to fund defense projects. As Max Bergmann from CSIS writes, “The EU…should act as NATO’s investment and procurement arm, using its ability to mobilize resources on behalf of Europe. Where NATO sets standards and procurement targets, the EU would provide the resources.”

The EU has already made major strides in these efforts since February 2022. The 2023 European Defense Industrial Strategy, for example, aims to increase defense readiness and strengthen the EU’s defense technological and industrial base, with a goal to get “member states to procure at least 40% of defense equipment collaboratively and 50% from within the EU by 2030, rising to 60% by 2035.” Today, 78% of Europe’s defense acquisitions come from outside Europe. Success will require working in lockstep with NATO, especially through the NATO defense planning process. This also means that the EU and NATO will have to find ways, however difficult, to overcome issues that have impeded deeper cooperation, such as the disputes between Cyprus and Turkey.

It also means the EU will have to get comfortable with directly supporting NATO activities. Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen has suggested a European Commissioner for Defense. That person, while not part of NATO’s direct decision-making process, should have a permanent invite to high-level NATO defense-planning meetings.

This also means, however often it might be said, that European countries will have to increase defense spending over the next two decades. The new target—two percent of GDP being a floor, not a ceiling—is a good start, but it won’t be enough to build Europe into a legitimate fighting force. Certain capabilities may always be out of reach; for instance, it likely won’t make sense for smaller European countries to pool their money for a huge aircraft carrier.

Instead, Europe must focus on the basics. Its members must ask themselves: What capabilities do we lack? What capabilities are needed for us to absorb a security shock—perhaps a Russian move into the Baltics, or a new version of the Islamic State—so that the U.S. has the political and tactical space to support our efforts if necessary? What must we do now to arrive at our desired 25-year goals? It is in the United States’ long-term interests to support such ownership. Until now, European defense dynamics have been met with criticisms from Washington, ranging from worries of “protectionist” measures to “undermining NATO.” These criticisms should’ve stopped years ago.

Second, once Europe bolsters its defense capabilities and creates greater unity of vision and trust among member states, the post of SACEUR—historically held by an American general—must eventually also be held by European military leaders. Regional commands could also be led by Europeans: NATO’s Mediterranean command in Naples, for instance, could be managed by Greek, Italian, Spanish and French admirals on rotations, replacing the American four star. What about nuclear weapons? Until a deeper discussion about Europe’s nuclear umbrella can be had, a European SACEUR would likely be required to have an American—say, U.S. Army Commander Europe— to serve as a nuclear deputy.

Finally, Europe must accept that the U.S. force posture on the continent is likely to wane in coming decades. This means developing plans to increase their own force numbers continuously over a number of years, and bolstering their forward presence on NATO’s vulnerable eastern front—a la the German brigade’s deployment to Lithuania, and France’s increased presence in Romania. This gives long-term credibility to Europe’s commitment and is much better than having to quickly respond to unforeseen changes in American posture.

Clearly, as Ukraine faces down Russia, now is not the time to start realizing plans to decrease U.S. forces in Europe. But ultimately, this is the likely direction for the U.S., either by plan or surprise, so it’s better for Europe to start planning. To be clear, this reformed NATO alliance would still be backed by America’s logistical and intelligence power, and intervening if another ally is attacked through its Article Five commitments would still be guaranteed in this new vision.

What is the upside of all this for Europeans? Preparing now avoids the possibility of rushed realignment which would reveal dangerous battlefield gaps, ensures that Europe remains a credible long-term ally of the U.S., and that the Continent begins prioritizing the production of weapons with its own factories that abide by European defense models and doctrines. At the same time, these plans can help distribute tasks among European nations according to actual means. They can also raise the credibility of Europe’s deterrence posture—whether against Russia or threats emanating from other theaters.

Plans to Europeanize NATO have been derided for decades, and some still argue that NATO would wither and die without the United States. That might be true today, but the Europeanization of NATO would lead to a stronger deterrence posture in the long run, especially if backed by bipartisan support in Washington. Gathering U.S. and European leaders to draft a reformist “25-year plan”—providing citizens and industries clarity—is the only way to save and ultimately strengthen NATO.

Transatlantic unity can be preserved and re-imagined to face the shared challenges of the future, but it needs a policy revolution to do that.

Rachel Rizzo is a Non-resident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Europe Center.

Michael Benhamou is the founder of OPEWI—Europe’s War Institute, and a former NATO political adviser.
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old salt
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Re: Military readiness

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This months freebie from, FA :
Sleepwalking Toward War
Will America and China Heed the Warnings of Twentieth-Century Catastrophe?
by Odd Arne Westad, Published on June 13, 2024

In The Rise of the Anglo-German Antagonism, 1860–1914, the British historian Paul Kennedy explained how two traditionally friendly peoples ended up in a downward spiral of mutual hostility that led to World War I. Major structural forces drove the competition between Germany and Britain: economic imperatives, geography, and ideology. Germany’s rapid economic rise shifted the balance of power and enabled Berlin to expand its strategic reach. Some of this expansion—especially at sea—took place in areas in which Britain had profound and established strategic interests. The two powers increasingly viewed each other as ideological opposites, wildly exaggerating their differences. The Germans caricatured the British as moneygrubbing exploiters of the world, and the British portrayed the Germans as authoritarian malefactors bent on expansion and repression.

The two countries appeared to be on a collision course, destined for war. But it wasn’t structural pressures, important as they were, that sparked World War I. War broke out thanks to the contingent decisions of individuals and a profound lack of imagination on both sides. To be sure, war was always likely. But it was unavoidable only if one subscribes to the deeply ahistorical view that compromise between Germany and Britain was impossible.

The war might not have come to pass had Germany’s leaders after Chancellor Otto von Bismarck not been so brazen about altering the naval balance of power. Germany celebrated its dominance in Europe and insisted on its rights as a great power, dismissing concerns about rules and norms of international behavior. That posture alarmed other countries, not just Britain. And it was difficult for Germany to claim, as it did, that it wanted to make a new, more just and inclusive world order while it threatened its neighbors and allied with a decaying Austro-Hungarian Empire that was hard at work denying the national aspirations of the peoples on its borders.

A similar tunnel vision prevailed on the other side. Winston Churchill, the British naval chief, concluded in 1913 that Britain’s preeminent global position “often seems less reasonable to others than to us.” British views of others tended to lack that self-awareness. Officials and commentators spewed vitriol about Germany, inveighing particularly against unfair German trade practices. London eyed Berlin warily, interpreting all its actions as evidence of aggressive intentions and failing to understand Germany’s fears for its own security on a continent where it was surrounded by potential foes. British hostility, of course, only deepened German fears and stoked German ambitions. “Few seem to have possessed the generosity or the perspicacity to seek a large-scale improvement in Anglo-German relations,” Kennedy lamented.

Such generosity or perspicacity is also sorely missing in relations between China and the United States today. Like Germany and Britain before World War I, China and the United States seem to be locked in a downward spiral, one that may end in disaster for both countries and for the world at large. Similar to the situation a century ago, profound structural factors fuel the antagonism. Economic competition, geopolitical fears, and deep mistrust work to make conflict more likely.

But structure is not destiny. The decisions that leaders make can prevent war and better manage the tensions that invariably rise from great-power competition. As with Germany and Britain, structural forces may push events to a head, but it takes human avarice and ineptitude on a colossal scale for disaster to ensue. Likewise, sound judgment and competence can prevent the worst-case scenarios.

THE LINES ARE DRAWN
Much like the hostility between Germany and Britain over a century ago, the antagonism between China and the United States has deep structural roots. It can be traced to the end of the Cold War. In the latter stages of that great conflict, Beijing and Washington had been allies of sorts, since both feared the power of the Soviet Union more than they feared each other. But the collapse of the Soviet state, their common enemy, almost immediately meant that policymakers fixated more on what separated Beijing and Washington than what united them. The United States increasingly deplored China’s repressive government. China resented the United States’ meddlesome global hegemony.

But this sharpening of views did not lead to an immediate decline in U.S.-Chinese relations. In the decade and a half that followed the end of the Cold War, successive U.S. administrations believed they had a lot to gain from facilitating China’s modernization and economic growth. Much like the British, who had initially embraced the unification of Germany in 1870 and German economic expansion after that, the Americans were motivated by self-interest to abet Beijing’s rise. China was an enormous market for U.S. goods and capital, and, moreover, it seemed intent on doing business the American way, importing American consumer habits and ideas about how markets should function as readily as it embraced American styles and brands.

Germany and Britain were on a collision course—but World War I was not inevitable.
At the level of geopolitics, however, China was considerably more wary of the United States. The collapse of the Soviet Union shocked China’s leaders, and the U.S. military success in the 1991 Gulf War brought home to them that China now existed in a unipolar world in which the United States could deploy its power almost at will. In Washington, many were repelled by China’s use of force against its own population at Tiananmen Square in 1989 and elsewhere. Much like Germany and Britain in the 1880s and 1890s, China and the United States began to view each other with greater hostility even as their economic exchanges expanded.

What really changed the dynamic between the two countries was China’s unrivaled economic success. As late as 1995, China’s GDP was around ten percent of U.S. GDP. By 2021, it had grown to around 75 percent of U.S. GDP. In 1995, the United States produced around 25 percent of the world’s manufacturing output, and China produced less than five percent. But now China has surged past the United States. Last year, China produced close to 30 percent of the world’s manufacturing output, and the United States produced just 17 percent. These are not the only figures that reflect a country’s economic importance, but they give a sense of a country’s heft in the world and indicate where the capacity to make things, including military hardware, resides.

At the geopolitical level, China’s view of the United States began to darken in 2003 with the invasion and occupation of Iraq. China opposed the U.S.-led attack, even if Beijing cared little for Iraqi President Saddam Hussein’s regime. More than the United States’ devastating military capabilities, what really shocked leaders in Beijing was the ease with which Washington could dismiss matters of sovereignty and nonintervention, notions that were staples of the very international order the Americans had coaxed China to join. Chinese policymakers worried that if the United States could so readily flout the same norms it expected others to uphold, little would constrain its future behavior. China’s military budget doubled from 2000 to 2005 and then doubled again by 2009. Beijing also launched programs to better train its military, improve its efficiency, and invest in new technology. It revolutionized its naval and missile forces. Sometime between 2015 and 2020, the number of ships in the Chinese navy surpassed that in the U.S. Navy.

Some argue that China would have dramatically expanded its military capabilities no matter what the United States did two decades ago. After all, that is what major rising powers do as their economic clout increases. That may be true, but the specific timing of Beijing’s expansion was clearly linked to its fear that the global hegemon had both the will and the capacity to contain China’s rise if it so chose. Iraq’s yesterday could be China’s tomorrow, as one Chinese military planner put it, somewhat melodramatically, in the aftermath of the U.S. invasion. Just as Germany began fearing that it would be hemmed in both economically and strategically in the 1890s and the early 1900s—exactly when Germany’s economy was growing at its fastest clip—China began fearing it would be contained by the United States just as its own economy was soaring.

BEFORE THE FALL
If there was ever an example of hubris and fear coexisting within the same leadership, it was provided by Germany under Kaiser Wilhelm II. Germany believed both that it was ineluctably on the rise and that Britain represented an existential threat to its ascent. German newspapers were full of postulations about their country’s economic, technological, and military advances, prophesying a future when Germany would overtake everyone else. According to many Germans (and some non-Germans, too), their model of government, with its efficient mix of democracy and authoritarianism, was the envy of the world. Britain was not really a European power, they claimed, insisting that Germany was now the strongest power on the continent and that it should be left free to rationally reorder the region according to the reality of its might. And indeed, it would be able to do just that if not for British meddling and the possibility that Britain could team up with France and Russia to contain Germany’s success.

Nationalist passions surged in both countries from the 1890s onward, as did darker notions of the malevolence of the other. The fear grew in Berlin that its neighbors and Britain were set on derailing Germany’s natural development on its own continent and preventing its future predominance. Mostly oblivious to how their own aggressive rhetoric affected others, German leaders began viewing British interference as the root cause of their country’s problems, both at home and abroad. They saw British rearmament and more restrictive trade policies as signs of aggressive intent. “So the celebrated encirclement of Germany has finally become an accomplished fact,” Wilhelm sighed, as war was brewing in 1914. “The net has suddenly been closed over our head, and the purely anti-German policy which England has been scornfully pursuing all over the world has won the most spectacular victory.” On their side, British leaders imagined that Germany was largely responsible for the relative decline of the British Empire, even though many other powers were rising at Britain’s expense.

China today shows many of the same signs of hubris and fear that Germany exhibited after the 1890s. Leaders of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) took immense pride in navigating their country through the 2008 global financial crisis and its aftermath more adeptly than did their Western counterparts. Many Chinese officials saw the global recession of that era not only as a calamity made in the United States but also as a symbol of the transition of the world economy from American to Chinese leadership. Chinese leaders, including those in the business sector, spent a great deal of time explaining to others that China’s inexorable rise had become the defining trend in international affairs. In its regional policies, China started behaving more assertively toward its neighbors. It also crushed movements for self-determination in Tibet and Xinjiang and undermined Hong Kong’s autonomy. And in recent years, it has more frequently insisted on its right to take over Taiwan, by force if necessary, and has begun to intensify its preparations for such a conquest.

Together, growing Chinese hubris and rising nationalism in the United States helped hand the presidency to Donald Trump in 2016, after he appealed to voters by conjuring China as a malign force on the international stage. In office, Trump began a military buildup directed against China and launched a trade war to reinforce U.S. commercial supremacy, marking a clear break from the less hostile policies pursued by his predecessor, Barack Obama. When Joe Biden replaced Trump in 2021, he maintained many of Trump’s policies that targeted China—buoyed by a bipartisan consensus that sees China as a major threat to U.S. interests—and has since imposed further trade restrictions intended to make it more difficult for Chinese firms to acquire sophisticated technology.

Beijing has responded to this hard-line shift in Washington by showing as much ambition as insecurity in its dealings with others. Some of its complaints about American behavior are strikingly similar to those that Germany lodged against Britain in the early twentieth century. Beijing has accused Washington of trying to maintain a world order that is inherently unjust—the same accusation Berlin leveled at London. “What the United States has constantly vowed to preserve is a so-called international order designed to serve the United States’ own interests and perpetuate its hegemony,” a white paper published by China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs declared in June 2022. “The United States itself is the largest source of disruption to the actual world order.”

The United States, meanwhile, has been trying to develop a China policy that combines deterrence with limited cooperation, similar to what Britain did when developing policy toward Germany in the early twentieth century. According to the Biden administration’s October 2022 National Security Strategy, “The People’s Republic of China harbors the intention and, increasingly, the capacity to reshape the international order in favor of one that tilts the global playing field to its benefit.” Although opposed to such a reshaping, the administration stressed that it will “always be willing to work with the PRC where our interests align.” To reinforce the point, the administration declared, “We can’t let the disagreements that divide us stop us from moving forward on the priorities that demand that we work together.” The problem now is—as it was in the years before 1914—that any opening for cooperation, even on key issues, gets lost in mutual recriminations, petty irritations, and deepening strategic mistrust.

In the British-German relationship, three main conditions led from rising antagonism to war. The first was that the Germans became increasingly convinced that Britain would not allow Germany to rise under any circumstances. At the same time, German leaders seemed incapable of defining to the British or anyone else how, in concrete terms, their country’s rise would or would not remake the world. The second was that both sides feared a weakening of their future positions. This view, ironically, encouraged some leaders to believe that they should fight a war sooner rather than later. The third was an almost total lack of strategic communication. In 1905, Alfred von Schlieffen, chief of the German general staff, proposed a battle plan that would secure a swift victory on the continent, where Germany had to reckon with both France and Russia. Crucially, the plan involved the invasion of Belgium, an act that gave Britain an immediate cause to join the war against Germany. As Kennedy put it, “The antagonism between the two countries had emerged well before the Schlieffen Plan was made the only German military strategy; but it took the sublime genius of the Prussian General Staff to provide the occasion for turning that antagonism into war.”

All these conditions now seem to be in place in the U.S.-Chinese relationship. Chinese President Xi Jinping and the CCP leadership are convinced the United States’ main objective is to prevent China’s rise no matter what. China’s own statements regarding its international ambitions are so bland as to be next to meaningless. Internally, Chinese leaders are seriously concerned about the country’s slowing economy and about the loyalty of their own people. Meanwhile, the United States is so politically divided that effective long-term governance is becoming almost impossible. The potential for strategic miscommunication between China and the United States is rife because of the limited interaction between the two sides. All current evidence points toward China making military plans to one day invade Taiwan, producing a war between China and the United States just as the Schlieffen Plan helped produce a war between Germany and Britain.

A NEW SCRIPT
The striking similarities with the early twentieth century, a period that witnessed the ultimate disaster, point to a gloomy future of escalating confrontation. But conflict can be avoided. If the United States wants to prevent a war, it has to convince Chinese leaders that it is not hell-bent on preventing China’s future economic development. China is an enormous country. It has industries that are on par with those in the United States. But like Germany in 1900, it also has regions that are poor and undeveloped. The United States cannot, through its words or actions, repeat to the Chinese what the Germans understood the British to be telling them a century ago: if you only stopped growing, there would not be a problem.

At the same time, China’s industries cannot keep growing unrestricted at the expense of everyone else. The smartest move China could make on trade is to agree to regulate its exports in such a way that they do not make it impossible for other countries’ domestic industries to compete in important areas such as electric vehicles or solar panels and other equipment necessary for decarbonization. If China continues to flood other markets with its cheap versions of these products, a lot of countries, including some that have not been overly concerned by China’s growth, will begin to unilaterally restrict market access to Chinese goods.

Beijing accuses Washington of maintaining a world order that is inherently unjust.
Unrestricted trade wars are not in anyone’s interest. Countries are increasingly imposing higher tariffs on imports and limiting trade and the movement of capital. But if this trend turns into a deluge of tariffs, then the world is in trouble, in economic as well as political terms. Ironically, China and the United States would probably both be net losers if protectionist policies took hold everywhere. As a German trade association warned in 1903, the domestic gains of protectionist policies “would be of no account in comparison with the incalculable harm which such a tariff war would cause to the economical interests of both countries.” The trade wars also contributed significantly to the outbreak of a real war in 1914.

Containing trade wars is a start, but Beijing and Washington should also work to end or at least contain hot wars that could trigger a much wider conflagration. During intense great-power competition, even small conflicts could easily have disastrous consequences, as the lead-up to World War I showed. Take, for instance, Russia’s current war of aggression against Ukraine. Last year’s offensives and counteroffensives did not change the frontlines a great deal; Western countries hope to work toward a cease-fire in Ukraine under the best conditions that Ukrainian valor and Western weapons can achieve. For now, a Ukrainian victory would consist of the repulsion of the initial all-out 2022 Russian offensive as well as terms that end the killing of Ukrainians, fast-track the country’s accession into the EU, and obtain Kyiv security guarantees from the West in case of Russian cease-fire violations. Many in the Western camp hope that China could play a constructive role in such negotiations, since Beijing has stressed “respecting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries.” China should remember that one of Germany’s major mistakes before World War I was to stand by as Austria-Hungary harassed its neighbors in the Balkans even as German leaders appealed to the high principles of international justice. This hypocrisy helped produce war in 1914. Right now, China is repeating that mistake with its treatment of Russia.

Although the war in Ukraine is now causing the most tension, it is Taiwan that could be the Balkans of the 2020s. Both China and the United States seem to be sleepwalking toward a cross-strait confrontation at some point within the next decade. An increasing number of China’s foreign policy experts now think that war over Taiwan is more likely than not, and U.S. policymakers are preoccupied with the question of how best to support the island. What is remarkable about the Taiwan situation is that it is clear to all involved—except, perhaps, to the Taiwanese most fixed on achieving formal independence—that only one possible compromise can likely help avoid disaster. In the Shanghai Communique of 1972, the United States acknowledged that there is only one China and that Taiwan is part of China. Beijing has repeatedly stated that it seeks an eventual peaceful unification with Taiwan. A restatement of these principles today would help prevent a conflict: Washington could say that it will under no circumstances support Taiwan’s independence, and Beijing could declare that it will not use force unless Taiwan formally takes steps toward becoming independent. Such a compromise would not make all the problems related to Taiwan go away. But it would make a great-power war over Taiwan much less likely.

Reining in economic confrontation and dampening potential regional flash points are essential for avoiding a repeat of the British-German scenario, but the rise of hostility between China and the United States has also made many other issues urgent. There is a desperate need for arms control initiatives and for dealing with other conflicts, such as that between the Israelis and the Palestinians. There is a demand for signs of mutual respect. When, in 1972, Soviet and U.S. leaders agreed to a set of “Basic Principles of Relations Between the United States of America and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics,” the joint declaration achieved almost nothing concrete. But it built a modicum of trust between both sides and helped convince Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev that the Americans were not out to get him. If Xi, like Brezhnev, intends to remain leader for life, that is an investment worth making.

The rise of great-power tensions also creates the need to maintain believable deterrence. There is a persistent myth that alliance systems led to war in 1914 and that a web of mutual defense treaties ensnared governments in a conflict that became impossible to contain. In fact, what made war almost a certainty after the European powers started mobilizing against one another in July 1914 was Germany’s ill-considered hope that Britain might not, after all, come to the assistance of its friends and allies. For the United States, it is essential not to provide any cause for such mistakes in the decade ahead. It should concentrate its military power in the Indo-Pacific, making that force an effective deterrent against Chinese aggression. And it should reinvigorate NATO, with Europe carrying a much greater share of the burden of its own defense.

Leaders can learn from the past in both positive and negative ways, about what to do and what not to do. But they have to learn the big lessons first, and the most important of all is how to avoid horrendous wars that reduce generations of achievements to rubble.[/quote]
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MDlaxfan76
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Re: Military readiness

Post by MDlaxfan76 »

Thanks, interesting piece.
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