THE 2019 Hopkins Lacrosse Fallout Shelter (44, we want more!)

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dense
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Re: THE Hopkins Lacrosse Fallout Shelter (44, we want more!)

Post by dense »

jhu06 wrote:I would imagine it's a lot harder to get an elite d3 school football team together than it is a d1 lacrosse program. No scholarship $, more kids to find, more coaches, probably less juice w admissions, and still obviously a private school cost+ cost of living in an east coast city when compared to some of these places most of us have never heard of. On the other hand, it's not like Margraff is competing against bucolic settings like Charlottesville, the Princeton network, or kids who've seen cameron indoor and carrier dome on their tee vees since they learned to walk. I don't know the sports admissions game like some of you, but it's interesting that schools like Williams, Amherst, Hopkins, and MIT-which competes in more sports than any other school in the nation put care into doing well.

They're not professional journalists, but w/IL's cutbacks a few years ago, these guys have been the only consistent daily d1 writing on the sport.
https://www.collegecrosse.com/

It's run by an Orange alum, so take it with a grain of salt, but I enjoy their work and respect their hustle. They've been doing schedule breakdowns as we sort of wait for the preseason previews to get fully caught up on things. I was hoping the athletic, a new subscription based website which has invested in stuff like hockey would add some d1 lacrosse coverage since it seems like a space ripe for more coverage but I guess we'll have to see in the spring.

I agree. Supplemental to IL but College Crosse this offseason is doing a better job in some ways covering College Lacrosse than IL. The young man is industrious, works at ESPN yet is expanding his site and it has become a good read. I assume that he will eventually be assigned to covering lax in some capacity for ESPN but I also think he could capitalize on his own work if he decides to dedicate himself to his venture.
jhu06
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Re: THE Hopkins Lacrosse Fallout Shelter (44, we want more!)

Post by jhu06 »

37-14, and refs don't seem to call penalties in d3, which is nice. Looks like a date w powerhouse mt union in d3 final 4-out of 250 programs. Not bad. All those lines for the various sports and the deep black paint isn't the end zone, kind of confusing.
OCanada
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Re: THE Hopkins Lacrosse Fallout Shelter (44, we want more!)

Post by OCanada »

You can check me but I think as the fall sports vkmexto an end Hopkins is #1 in the Governor’s ? Cup
WOMBAT, Mod Emeritus
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Re: THE Hopkins Lacrosse Fallout Shelter (44, we want more!)

Post by WOMBAT, Mod Emeritus »

OCanada wrote:You can check me but I think as the fall sports vkmexto an end Hopkins is #1 in the Governor’s ? Cup
Was thinking the same thing.

vkmexto? LOL. That might be your all time best!

We’re trying to get to the Yard and hit Mikes or the Boatyard in a few weeks. Will try to give you more of an advance warning next time (so you can leave town).

W, The Cube Man
OCanada
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Re: THE Hopkins Lacrosse Fallout Shelter (44, we want more!)

Post by OCanada »

We leave for Boston on the 19th. Mostly open except for Friday and Saturday 15/16. One other Saturday but can’t recall which
Drcthru
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Re: THE Hopkins Lacrosse Fallout Shelter (44, we want more!)

Post by Drcthru »

OCanada wrote:You can check me but I think as the fall sports vkmexto an end Hopkins is #1 in the Governor’s ? Cup
Interesting missed keystrokes! What is the Governor's Cup?
Everyone wants to change the world but, no one wants to do the dishes.
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44WeWantMore
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Re: THE Hopkins Lacrosse Fallout Shelter (44, we want more!)

Post by 44WeWantMore »

Just a guess: https://hopkinssports.com/sports/2018/6 ... kings.aspx

And if you look at your keyboard, 'vkmexto' is spatially close to 'comes to'
Be in their flowing cups freshly rememb'red.
molo
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Re: THE Hopkins Lacrosse Fallout Shelter (44, we want more!)

Post by molo »

Preliminary outlook for 2019 Jays is tough as PSU and OSU return plenty, Maryland, as always, is loaded, Rutgers is confident, and Michigan, who Hopkins fans have touted as up and coming for a while, has turned the corner. Unless the ADs can be creative with start times, I'll probably miss the opener against TU as I'll be at the RAC. Maybe the start times can be staggered.
Doc's principle bodes ill for his boys. Graduation hits everyone, but Hopkins lost their best player and their best attackman. Whatever you thought of the goalie, his replacement will be someone who could not dislodge him last year unless a freshman steps up. Ditto at FOGO.
Way too early assessment:
GOALIE:
With all the criticism leveled at the departed tender, whoever takes his place will be someone who could not supplant him last year or a newcomer. Possible upgrade, maybe not.
CLOSE DEFENSE:
Should be comparable to or better than last year.
MIDFIELD:
The best Hopkins midfielder since the guy who just started the new pro league is gone. Several promising offensive middies return. How will the new rules affect a team more comfortable in half field sets than in transition? LSM looks solid, but ssdm, an issue in recent years, remains a question mark. Will it be FOGO by committee? The new rules should reduce the impact of dominant FOGOs, but you still need to win more than you lose.
ATTACK:
The qb, who may never have been as great as some hoped he would be but who nevertheless was the best Hopkins attackman for the past couple of years, is gone. Marr, an excellent finisher, and Williams, who last year started to look like more than just a guy who dominated smaller defensemen in college, are two lefties with different skill sets that do not include the ability of distribute the ball that Stanwick, a lefty with an excellent right, possessed will likely be joined by either a freshman or a veteran who played more as a freshman than he did last year.
Any word on Petro's plans for the young man who saw some time on emo as a freshman, then was relegated to the bench last year only to surface as a pole last summer for the Iroquois in Israel?
WOMBAT, Mod Emeritus
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Re: THE Hopkins Lacrosse Fallout Shelter (44, we want more!)

Post by WOMBAT, Mod Emeritus »

44WeWantMore wrote:Just a guess: https://hopkinssports.com/sports/2018/6 ... kings.aspx

And if you look at your keyboard, 'vkmexto' is spatially close to 'comes to'
I thought “mex to” meant OC had been typing about the southern border, and his spellchecker got out of whack.


Then I remembered my Venn Diagram of “spellchecker” and “OC”.
WOMBAT, Mod Emeritus
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Re: THE Hopkins Lacrosse Fallout Shelter (44, we want more!)

Post by WOMBAT, Mod Emeritus »

Learfield Directors Cup standings as of 21 NOV and the completion of four sports - wcx, mcx, wvb and field hockey, has Hopkins in a distant 1st place:

https://nacda.com/news/2018/11/21/direc ... eased.aspx

And that is PRIOR to D3 Football results being factored in.

Of course, the burning question is, cough, cough, can one or two specific spring sports make it to the Final Four?
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44WeWantMore
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Re: THE Hopkins Lacrosse Fallout Shelter (44, we want more!)

Post by 44WeWantMore »

I get the subtle point you are making, but I assume D1 results don't even count in the D3 Learfield Directors’ Cup Standings. And do any NCAA sports remain where there are not separate D1/2/3 champions?
Be in their flowing cups freshly rememb'red.
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HowieT3
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Re: THE Hopkins Lacrosse Fallout Shelter (44, we want more!)

Post by HowieT3 »

44WeWantMore wrote:I get the subtle point you are making, but I assume D1 results don't even count in the D3 Learfield Directors’ Cup Standings. And do any NCAA sports remain where there are not separate D1/2/3 champions?
Yes to both.

JHU gets to count any points they earn from both D-1 Lax teams toward their totals in the D-3 Cup.

Bowling, Rifle, Skiing, and Fencing don’t have Divisions.
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WOMBAT, Mod Emeritus
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Re: THE Hopkins Lacrosse Fallout Shelter (44, we want more!)

Post by WOMBAT, Mod Emeritus »

HowieT3 wrote:
44WeWantMore wrote:I get the subtle point you are making, but I assume D1 results don't even count in the D3 Learfield Directors’ Cup Standings. And do any NCAA sports remain where there are not separate D1/2/3 champions?
Yes to both.

JHU gets to count any points they earn from both D-1 Lax teams toward their totals in the D-3 Cup.

Bowling, Rifle, Skiing, and Fencing don’t have Divisions.
Superb post, T3!
51percentcorn
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Re: THE Hopkins Lacrosse Fallout Shelter (44, we want more!)

Post by 51percentcorn »

HowieT3 wrote:Yes to both.

JHU gets to count any points they earn from both D-1 Lax teams toward their totals in the D-3 Cup.

Bowling, Rifle, Skiing, and Fencing don’t have Divisions.
I would have guessed lacrosse does not count so you learn something new every day.

The recent thumbnail sketch by molo on the Jays is pretty accurate. The team faces three glaring holes/unknowns IMO. Two are obvious and the subject of much discussion - goalie and face-off. Of the two - face-off is the bigger concern to me. If you subscribe to the tenet that saving the ball is the goalie's numero uno job, then you cannot argue that the senior that graduated last year ever excelled in that department. You can argue he didn't receive the help he should have but that's another story. Let's put it this way - if the person who manages that position is statistically/visibly worse than last year than Hopkins has no hope at anything. I have an easier time thinking that the position will be at least meh, however, than I do at the face-off dot. JHU returns 71 face-offs (64 by Prouty and 7 by Reinson) - winning percentage 32%? Hard to feel optimistic. The other big issue is mid-field experience/depth/scoring. Aside from Tinney's departure - the second mid-field - actually a team strength last year - is pretty much gone as well. Lot of anticipation that a freshman may join DeSimone and Concannon on the 1st line. Freshmen midfielders typically have a harder time adjusting. If I would quibble with the analysis above - it's at attack. I think Williams is a little more than a guy just starting to look.... and he did have 14 assists - this will get better in most likelihood. If you are going to have two lefties it's better to have varied skill sets. Marr's best year by far last year with a reduction in turnovers. He must cut down on his penalties - while it shows his aggressiveness I do not think an attackman should lead the team in fouls. Epstein has to play - Hopkins does not have the luxury to let that kid gain experience on the bench. And he does have something that Shack didn't - quickness. Even though he is no where near as big as Shack he will draw more slides. We'll see if it helps.
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HopFan16
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Re: THE Hopkins Lacrosse Fallout Shelter (44, we want more!)

Post by HopFan16 »

Good analysis by molo and 51. This team's strengths and weaknesses are pretty apparent. I do think Prouty has a lot more ability than his 33% last year suggests. He was never really given a chance to get into a rhythm at the faceoff dot—he was usually thrown to the wolves whenever Moreland was struggling or getting tired. And a bunch of times he actually held his own and at least mucked it up a bit to give our wings a chance. Petro would probably be the first person to tell you that wing play was not a team strength for much of the year in 2018. No matter who is facing off, that much needs to change for the Jays to do better than a quarterfinals trip.

I don't necessarily think that the fact that Darby "could not dislodge" Turnbaugh as a starter last season is indicative of anything. Whether you agree with their philosophy or not, the coaching staff clearly emphasized defensive leadership and experience in goal. Darby was a freshman out of Texas who had probably never seen anything like what he'd be in store for as a goaltender in the Big Ten. Doesn't mean he can't stop shots. He may have never even been a serious contender to play meaningful minutes even if he was playing lights out in practice. Again, if that was the case you can argue whether or not that was the right decision. But I'm not sure that the fact he didn't play last year really has any bearing on his ability. I guess we'll find out soon.

I have been one of the biggest Shack defenders for the last four years but I think you guys are actually underrating the potential of this attack unit 2019. They could be scary good. If you've been following Marr's career trajectory—the phrase "player development" gets thrown around here a lot—he's someone who has improved his play both statistically and via the eye-test in every year he's been in college. He has improved his shooting, cut down on turnovers, developed into a solid passer (especially on EMO), and become one of the most clutch late-game performers in college lacrosse. Maybe he peaked in 2018. Maybe not. But he had an excellent season last year by all measures (okay, except the Loyola fiasco) and I'm excited to see if he can get to another level in 2019.

Shack's absence opens up more opportunities for Cole Williams to handle the ball. His assist totals are going to rise. I have no doubt in my mind. He can pass. I think last year was about him becoming more confident as a dodger so he was more focused on just beating his guy and getting to the goal than on being a more well-rounded attackman, especially since he had Shack there to orchestrate things. But he's another guy who has drastically improved his play from freshman to sophomore year and if he makes any sort of leap similar to the one Marr made, then regardless of who's in the third attack spot, Marr-Williams has a decent to good chance of being one of the very top attack tandems in the country.

Defense returns pretty much everybody. They were solid if unspectacular last year, but as one of the most experienced groups in the country, I'd expect them to improve somewhat in 2019. SSDM depth behind Jones is a tad disconcerting, hopefully the Younger Hubler, who showed some flashes last year, can be more consistent as a #2, and someone (I have no idea who) steps up as a capable #3. There are certainly enough big bodies on the roster now where size doesn't have to be an issue anymore.

No clue about the midfield. DeSimone and Concannon are both good pieces but obviously some new complimentary scoring has to step up. There's talent on the roster, question is who will take advantage. From what I've been hearing, DeSimone may be poised for a pretty substantial sophomore leap, but even so some of the other youngins will need to contribute.
steel_hop
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Re: THE Hopkins Lacrosse Fallout Shelter (44, we want more!)

Post by steel_hop »

HopFan16 wrote:Yep. Mount St. Mary's replaces UMBC.

https://spark.adobe.com/page/RAgko0f7LVYof/

Anyone know why the Big Ten changed the alternating home/away pattern? We're at Michigan and Penn State for the second straight year, while we get Ohio State at home again. Early homecoming this year against Rutgers on April 6.

4 of the first 5 games are away from Homewood. But then 3 in a row and 5 of the next 6 are at Homewood. Ending the season with trips to PSU and UMD. Second straight year of only 2 conference games at home.
has this questioned been answered why Hopkins is playing at MD and PSU two years in a row. The rivalry tweet doesn't really ring true to me. You can do that without flipping home/away trips.
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HopFan16
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Re: THE Hopkins Lacrosse Fallout Shelter (44, we want more!)

Post by HopFan16 »

steel_hop wrote:
HopFan16 wrote:Yep. Mount St. Mary's replaces UMBC.

https://spark.adobe.com/page/RAgko0f7LVYof/

Anyone know why the Big Ten changed the alternating home/away pattern? We're at Michigan and Penn State for the second straight year, while we get Ohio State at home again. Early homecoming this year against Rutgers on April 6.

4 of the first 5 games are away from Homewood. But then 3 in a row and 5 of the next 6 are at Homewood. Ending the season with trips to PSU and UMD. Second straight year of only 2 conference games at home.
has this questioned been answered why Hopkins is playing at MD and PSU two years in a row. The rivalry tweet doesn't really ring true to me. You can do that without flipping home/away trips.
This is pure speculation but maybe the home/away schedules are on a four-year cycle, which started in 2015 and ended last year. So now they reset for 2019 and for the next four years they'll alternate home/away again through the 2022 season, then reset again, and so on. Not sure what exactly the point of that would be but it explains why conference games have randomly flipped dates and locations this year.
AreaLax
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Re: THE Hopkins Lacrosse Fallout Shelter (44, we want more!)

Post by AreaLax »

steel_hop wrote:
HopFan16 wrote:Yep. Mount St. Mary's replaces UMBC.

https://spark.adobe.com/page/RAgko0f7LVYof/

Anyone know why the Big Ten changed the alternating home/away pattern? We're at Michigan and Penn State for the second straight year, while we get Ohio State at home again. Early homecoming this year against Rutgers on April 6.

4 of the first 5 games are away from Homewood. But then 3 in a row and 5 of the next 6 are at Homewood. Ending the season with trips to PSU and UMD. Second straight year of only 2 conference games at home.
has this questioned been answered why Hopkins is playing at MD and PSU two years in a row. The rivalry tweet doesn't really ring true to me. You can do that without flipping home/away trips.
Sorry I can’t find the actual source but one reason was to have Michigan only travel to Maryland once a season.
jhu06
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Re: THE Hopkins Lacrosse Fallout Shelter (44, we want more!)

Post by jhu06 »

these will change, but duke/nd usurping cuse/uva/unc as the class of the acc has hurt our nc schedule ratings. If you use the il preseason poll we've got 6/7 road games against ranked teams and the 7th is towson. That leadership vacuum shack/joel/brock/hunter etc left is going to have to filled in a hurry.

Chris Jastrzembski@CFJastrzembski Top 10 nonconference SOS is as follows:

1. @Towson_MLAX (.669) 2. @LoyolaMLAX (.658) 3. @YaleLacrosse (.607) 4. @DrexelMLax (.597) 5. @PennStateMLAX (.584) 6. @TigerLacrosse (.571) 7. @HPUMensLax (.565) 8. @FURMANMLAX (.555)
9. @OhioStateMLAX (.552) 10. @MarquetteMLax (.546)

Chris Jastrzembski @CFJastrzembski
Top 10 overall SOS goes like this:

1. @PennStateMLAX (.605) 2. @OhioStateMLAX (.588) 3. @Towson_MLAX (.582) 4. @jhumenslacrosse (.568) 5. @MarquetteMLax (.555) 6. @LoyolaMLAX (.553) T7. @YaleLacrosse & @TigerLacrosse (.550) 9. @DrexelMLax (.544) 10. @UVAMensLax (.534)
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Re: THE Hopkins Lacrosse Fallout Shelter (44, we want more!)

Post by WOMBAT, Mod Emeritus »

jhu06 wrote:these will change, but duke/nd usurping cuse/uva/unc as the class of the acc has hurt our nc schedule ratings. If you use the il preseason poll we've got 6/7 road games against ranked teams and the 7th is towson. That leadership vacuum shack/joel/brock/hunter etc left is going to have to filled in a hurry.

Chris Jastrzembski@CFJastrzembski Top 10 nonconference SOS is as follows:

1. @Towson_MLAX (.669) 2. @LoyolaMLAX (.658) 3. @YaleLacrosse (.607) 4. @DrexelMLax (.597) 5. @PennStateMLAX (.584) 6. @TigerLacrosse (.571) 7. @HPUMensLax (.565) 8. @FURMANMLAX (.555)
9. @OhioStateMLAX (.552) 10. @MarquetteMLax (.546)

Chris Jastrzembski @CFJastrzembski
Top 10 overall SOS goes like this:

1. @PennStateMLAX (.605) 2. @OhioStateMLAX (.588) 3. @Towson_MLAX (.582) 4. @jhumenslacrosse (.568) 5. @MarquetteMLax (.555) 6. @LoyolaMLAX (.553) T7. @YaleLacrosse & @TigerLacrosse (.550) 9. @DrexelMLax (.544) 10. @UVAMensLax (.534)
Win them all, then details don’t matter as much.

Reminds me of the combat quote: kill them all, let God sort them out.

Does God use RPI? Should he/she/other?

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