National Security Matters

[jhu72]

This guy forgets that the current citizenry of the US has lived through a period where their leaders, on foreign policy and affairs, have done nothing but lie to them since the start of the Vietnam War!!! Not little lies - BIG LIES. The citizenry has been made isolationist. The citizenry has been encouraged not to think. The citizenry has been encouraged to have no skin in the game, just leave it to the experts and keep paying the bills. Then these know it all's come out of the woodwork, telling us we don't understand how important this stuff is.

Maybe if foreign policy and affairs experts weren't such a bunch of anal-retentives, wanting to protect their game at all costs, even if bad for the citizenry and the nation, the American people would not have reacted as they have. These people have no one to blame but themselves! They have zero credibility!

[Trinity]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions ... ghanistan/

Trump’s selling Putin’s story. The WSJ editors can’t recall a more absurd rendering of History by an American President.

[old salt]

Yes, glad you liked and appreciated the article. The guy absolutely hits the nail on the head. Note that he assesses President Obama badly on this score as well.

The most recent generation of Americans needs education and leadership -- and they are getting neither from Trump and the little handheld devices they sport and stare at everywhere they go. I feel like I'm telling kids to get off my lawn.

President Trump lacks the background, training and vision to see this sort of analysis as anything but costly. His outlook is so small, mercenary and transactional that it is impossible to think that he will engage allies in a cooperative, multilateral effort against the rising tide of dictatorships and oligarchs.

Interesting anecdote in the Book of Woodward about Trump's reaction when Ivanka showed him pictures of dying Syrian children after Assad's CW attack using sarin gas.

Trump told Mattis to prepare a military strike that would include the probability of killing Assad.
Marris convinced trump to settle for a limited cruise missile strike on the airfield & aircraft which launched the CW attack.
Trump was widely praised for that attack, internationally & domestically, including by McCain.

[old salt]

So who wants to finish off ISIS in Syria ? Good luck Amb Jeffrey.

http://www.kurdistan24.net/en/news/4133 ... 740c674a9a <=={surprising byline on this one}

tps://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2019 ... kurds.html

https://outline.com/nMttv5

https://ahvalnews.com/turkey-usa/turkey ... -officials

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opin ... s-in-syria

Wishful thinking ?

Maybe Bolton dusted off Flynn's Gulen plan.

Who's on first ?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/na ... 92a6e81d11

The threatened invasion has been postponed, Turkish officials said, until departing U.S. troops get out of the way. Erdogan expects to learn the timetable for their withdrawal during Bolton’s visit.

While Trump has been said to have extended his initial 30-day deadline to four months, “we have no timeline for our forces to withdraw from Syria,” said one of four senior administration officials who participated in the briefing for reporters Friday. They spoke on the condition of anonymity under White House rules for the briefing.

“The president has made the decision that we will withdraw, and we are formulating the plans to do that right now . . . in a deliberate and heavily coordinated way, but we will be leaving.”

Trump’s agreement with Erdogan comes as the administration is seeking to resolve a number of issues with Turkey, a NATO ally. Late last month, the United States approved a $3.5 billion sale of Patriot surface-to-air missiles to Turkey, hoping to head off Ankara’s purchase of a Russian air defense system.

[tech37]

Great news...

https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/04/politics ... index.html

[Trinity]

President Bolton has assured Israel we’re not leaving Syria until Isis is defeated. Don’t listen to Trump. He’s a nut.

[old salt]

Useful updates for paranoid readers, nostalgic for the House Unamerican Activities Committee :

Ft Trump update --
http://tass.com/pressreview/1034568

Black Sea order of battle --
http://tass.com/defense/1039108

South China Sea Freedom of Navigation transit --
https://news.usni.org/2019/01/07/40202#more-40202

Gotta let the contracts for the 3rd & 4th Ford class carriers before Trump's impeached --
https://news.usni.org/2019/01/02/navy-c ... more-40047

[Trinity]

Erdogan refuses to meet Bolton, slams Trump for breaking their Syrian peace agreement.

[old salt]

Interesting overview of Syria & the past decade.

https://www.tabletmag.com/jewish-news-a ... -for-syria

Mattis & McGurk tried to manage the mess they inherited & did a good job (imho).

[Trinity]

The House needs to interrogate the interpreter for Trump’s Helsinki debacle. Two hours alone with Putin, who knows all about Trump’s ongoing lies to Americans. How’d that really go? We know they were celebrating at the NatPrayer Breakfast at American expense.

https://tyt.com/stories/4vZLCHuQrYE4uKa ... EsMAYcuQes

[Brooklyn]

Mindless Trump in his delusionalism believes we need a border wall for national security. The facts reveal otherwise:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bvPPSTHlvrE&t=

[Trinity]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/na ... story.html

Trump’s communications with Putin.

[old salt]

If you were intrigued by this morning's tease on MJ about the globalism debate, it's happening here, now :

[old salt]

I hope Operation Atlantic Resolve is reviewed at the next NATO summit.

https://www.businessinsider.com/us-tank ... ads-2018-4

https://warontherocks.com/2018/11/bring ... n-germany/

the current Atlantic Resolve rotations represent a successful “credible deterrence strategy.” Despite the rotations’ success in deterring Russian aggression in the Baltics, there are inherent inefficiencies that can be resolved with permanent basing. John Deni’s 2016 report demonstrated an armored brigade based in Grafenwoehr, Germany could save $135 million annually compared to ongoing rotational costs. Atlantic Resolve’s recurring transportation costs are staggering. Deni’s report shows that the Defense Department spends $100 million every nine months to transport an armored brigade’s equipment and personnel from the United States to Europe and back. While Poland’s offer included $2 billion to assist with construction costs, the existing network of American bases in Germany already include state of the art ranges, training areas, and facilities that rival many Army bases in the continental United States. The construction costs to expand Grafenwoehr would be minor compared to a brand-new base in Poland. President Donald Trump’s recent guidance for federal agencies to cut budgets by 5 percent makes these cost savings more important in a fiscally constrained environment.

Supporters of the rotational approach highlight how these deployments exercise mobility infrastructure that has not been used since the 1980s. Despite that benefit, the lengthy transportation process negatively impacts the rotational unit’s maintenance and readiness. In my previous assignment, I served as a mechanized infantry and headquarters company commander in the 3rd Armored Brigade, 4th Infantry Division in the first enduring Atlantic Resolve rotation. My soldiers spent two months loading equipment at rail yards, container yards, and ports just getting to Europe. The lack of preventative maintenance on vehicles for two months resulted in numerous breakdowns upon arrival in Europe. Similar time commitment and maintenance issues occurred with redeployment to the United States. In one year, we lost four months to deployment mobility operations that could have been spent on lethality training and maintenance. When aggregated across the U.S. Army’s strained armor fleet, this represents a significant amount of time not devoted to enhancing readiness. Occasionally exercising these mobility systems is necessary, but doing so every nine months is wasteful. While rotational proponents claim rotations improve readiness, they fail to account for these real readiness degradations.

Beyond cost savings and improved readiness, a German-based brigade would be better positioned to support rotations in the Baltics and NATO training exercises throughout Europe. This armored brigade would quickly master the complexities of European mobility operations and retain invaluable contacts with the vast transportation network needed to move armored units throughout Europe. Rather than deploying to the Middle East or rotations to Korea and Kuwait, a German-based armored brigade would conduct NATO exercises and join the ongoing Enhanced Forward Presence rotations. These NATO battlegroups would continue to provide the “trip-wire” deterrence designed to raise the stakes of a Russian incursion into the Baltics. The new brigade could assist ongoing rotations supported by the Italy-based 173rd Airborne Brigade or the Germany-based 2nd Cavalry Regiment. This would reduce the high operational tempo shouldered by these last two American combat brigades based in Europe. If additional forces were needed to signal credible deterrence, infantry units could provide this immediate signaling. The Fort Carson-based 2-12 Infantry Battalion demonstrated this last year with its no-notice, emergency deployment to Grafenwoehr.

The Iron Horse Brigade returns to Ft Hood, TX, after 9 mos on NATO's E flank.
http://kdhnews.com/fort_hood_herald/acr ... 08272.html

They're being replaced by the Devil Brigade of the Big Red One, from Ft Riley, KS, along with their Aviation Brigade.

http://www.eur.army.mil/News/Article-Di ... announced/

The brigades, based out of Fort Riley, Kansas, are the fourth iteration of Atlantic Resolve back-to-back rotations. They will deploy to various locations throughout Central and Eastern Europe where they will conduct multinational training and security cooperation activities with allies and partners.

The armored brigade will deploy with more than 3,500 Soldiers around the end of January with approximately 85 Abrams tanks; 135 Bradley Fighting and Fire Support Vehicles; 15 Paladins; and other support equipment.

“After spending the last several months conducting an intensive and comprehensive training cycle that included a National Training Center rotation, the Devil Brigade is looking forward to deploying to Europe in support of the Atlantic Resolve mission,” said Col. Charles Armstrong, 1st Armored Brigade Combat Team commander.

The aviation brigade’s approximately 1,900 Soldiers will follow in February with approximately 50 UH-60 and HH-60 Black Hawks; 10 CH-47 Chinooks; 20 AH-64 Apaches; and 1,500 pieces of support equipment.

Rather than shipping all those troops, vehicles, aircraft & equipment, back & forth every 9 mos, it would save money to permanently base them (& their families) back at our existing bases in Germany. Xmas in Bavaria, with your family, makes shorter deployments to the east, not so bad.

How hollow has NATO become -- an EU tank arsenal ? (try not to laugh)
https://www.offiziere.ch/?p=33701

[Trinity]

Not bad at all. I spent a July in the 60s on an Army base outside Stuttgart. Veingen, I believe. Gorgeous place. We kids had a blast.

Meanwhile, Brett McGurk says Trump’s breathing new life into Isis. NK is getting an undeserved Oval Office visit. Who is on the bridge, Salty?

[Trinity]

Oh, look, another summit with Kim. 90 minutes with their spy guy and voila.

[Trinity]

“US Intel chiefs offered real world assessment how badly is getting “owned” around the world. Trump’s tweets & comments - ISIS, Syria, North Korea, border = false. Trump’s base lives in alternative fantasy land. Damage Trump in foreign policy will haunt Americans for generation.” Clint Watts, ex FBI.

[CU77]

Question for old salt: do you agree with Trump on this?

The Intelligence people seem to be extremely passive and naive when it comes to the dangers of Iran. They are wrong!

[old salt]

Question for old salt: do you agree with Trump on this?

The Intelligence people seem to be extremely passive and naive when it comes to the dangers of Iran. They are wrong!

Specify what the IC's assessment is of Iran & I'll tell you what/if I agree/disagree with.

I believe the IC if they say Iran is still in compliance with the JCPOA. My view is that Iran is waiting to see if Trump is re-elected & if his successor comes back into the deal. I still think the deal was a mistake, but the damage has been done & can't be undone.

Iran is not confronting the US as much under Trump, as they did under Obama.
They're waiting him out & are still working to become the regional hegemon.

[old salt]

Question for old salt: do you agree with Trump on this?

The Intelligence people seem to be extremely passive and naive when it comes to the dangers of Iran. They are wrong!

Specify what the IC's assessment is of Iran & I'll tell you what/if I agree/disagree with.

I believe the IC if they say Iran is still in compliance with the JCPOA. My view is that Iran is waiting to see if Trump is re-elected & if his successor comes back into the deal. I still think the deal was a mistake, but the damage has been done & can't be undone.

Iran is not confronting the US as much under Trump, as they did under Obama.
They're waiting him out & are still working to become the regional hegemon.

OK. Found this :
https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/document ... --SSCI.pdf
(pgs 10 & 29-31)

The IC details all the bad stuff that Iran is still doing.
Apparently Trump did not appreciate the finding that they're still in compliance with the JCPOA.