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Re: FanLax Forum Poll
Posted: Tue Feb 25, 2020 4:54 pm
by ICGrad
Matnum PI wrote: ↑Tue Feb 25, 2020 4:38 pm
laxpere wrote: ↑Tue Feb 25, 2020 4:23 pmNice discussion on early season upsets. I think that it hurts the higher ranked team more than helps the lower ranked teams. Maryland dropped down below Villanova for me because they also barely avoided an upset at Richmond.
This is a good example. When Air Force beat Duke very early in the season, in theory, this shouldn't be an upset. We all knew it was and a couple weeks later, this has been proven true. But immediately after the game, in theory, it wasn't an upset because... Maybe Air Force is truly a better team than Duke. That's why I want to get rid of the preseason poll ASAP. Because the Air Forces (bad example)... Because the Villanovas of the world shouldn't have to do more than a Maryland, Notre Dame, or otherwise to get a top spot.
Different example, 3 years ago, maybe 4, UVM was winning games against nothing teams. I think at some point they had a pretty good W but even that w was against a B+ team. But, for some reason, the Lacrosse World was sold on UVM. And... I just did not understand it. It was partly based on their AA attackman but... It just seemed to be based much more on marketing and pr than on reality. Bottomline, that UVM team was great for UVM but... This was no where near the team the Lacrosse world was presenting them as. Which is at the heart of my issue with this stuff. (And it's not just with lacrosse. This is everywhere.) The disparity between image and reality and how the former so often wins.
Why go back 3 seasons? High Point beak Duke and UVA last year; I mean, they quickly lost, but were sitting at 4-0 and looking like world beaters. But I don't think anyone really thought they were the best team in the country.
So for me, part if it is trying not to overvalue games played in February, often in crappy conditions and by some teams who have had very little chance to practice outdoors - but having nothing else to go on, yeah, you fall back on your preconceptions going into the year. Villanova's win over Maryland was a nice win, but it was over a Maryland team that seemed to be struggling with consistency early in the season (who isn't). Maybe I undervalued that win a bit...sure. But maybe the computer is undervaluing their losses a little, too?
Re: FanLax Forum Poll
Posted: Tue Feb 25, 2020 5:15 pm
by Matnum PI
High Point is a great example. And they had a clear path in front of them after those games. And then they lost to St. John's? and another. and... etc. But at that moment, from where I was sitting, they should've been ranked highly. If you beat Duke and UVA and you're undefeated, at least at that moment in time, you should be really highly ranked. with this said, i understand why poll-ers will look beyond the scores, the Ws and Ls. Not the denigrating this more artful approach.
But maybe the computer is undervaluing their losses a little, too?
I mean, they lost to the #1 and #2 teams in the nation. i know there's no such thing as good losses but these are good losses. these losses prove that 'nova should be #3 or lower. Not so bad.
Re: FanLax Forum Poll
Posted: Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:20 pm
by Wheels
Someone explain the logic of ranking Penn ahead of Maryland? Is Penn's win against Duke somehow better than Maryland's win over Penn? Or is it that Maryland's loss to Villanova was worse than Penn's loss to Maryland? So all of the sudden, head-to-head doesn't matter because Maryland's sloppy, road loss to Penn?
Re: FanLax Forum Poll
Posted: Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:30 pm
by Matnum PI
Wheels wrote: ↑Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:20 pm
Is Penn's win against Duke somehow better than Maryland's win over Penn? Or is it that Maryland's loss to Villanova was worse than Penn's loss to Maryland?
Speaking for the Computer, yes.
Re: FanLax Forum Poll
Posted: Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:37 pm
by laxpere
Matnum PI wrote: ↑Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:30 pm
Wheels wrote: ↑Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:20 pm
Is Penn's win against Duke somehow better than Maryland's win over Penn? Or is it that Maryland's loss to Villanova was worse than Penn's loss to Maryland?
Speaking for the Computer, yes.
laxpere wrote: ↑Tue Feb 25, 2020 9:29 am
Biggest changes based on combination of higher ranked teams losing and/or quality wins.
I think that head-to-head is important at this point in the season so Princeton above Virginia and Villanova above Maryland. Probably have Penn too high and Maryland too low, but games this week will help calibrate those teams. Same with North Carolina, Notre Dame, Cornell and Duke.
You're right about Maryland and Penn. Admittedly, I ranked Penn too high and Maryland too low. I should have ranked Penn right below Maryland, but I realized it too late to correct it.
Re: FanLax Forum Poll
Posted: Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:46 pm
by NElaxtalent
Wheels wrote: ↑Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:20 pm
Someone explain the logic of ranking Penn ahead of Maryland? Is Penn's win against Duke somehow better than Maryland's win over Penn? Or is it that Maryland's loss to Villanova was worse than Penn's loss to Maryland? So all of the sudden, head-to-head doesn't matter because Maryland's sloppy, road loss to Penn?
Maryland also was thumped for 3Qs by Richmond (surviving largely due to a complete meltdown of unforced TOs). Yes a W but definitely a slight blemish for a Top 5 team.
Re: FanLax Forum Poll
Posted: Tue Feb 25, 2020 7:07 pm
by Matnum PI
Doing rankings based on head-to-head results is very short-lived. It doesn't take long before there are circular references and contradictions.
Re: FanLax Forum Poll
Posted: Tue Feb 25, 2020 7:13 pm
by ICGrad
Matnum PI wrote: ↑Tue Feb 25, 2020 5:15 pm
I mean, they lost to the #1 and #2 teams in the nation. i know there's no such thing as good losses but these are good losses. these losses prove that 'nova should be #3 or lower. Not so bad.
I'm a little hesitant to call a 9-goal loss to PSU a "good" loss. That's the rationale/computer modelling that sees an 8-7 JHU team make the tourney...
I mean, for me personally, I absolutely took the margin of defeat in Villanova's two losses into account when I ranked them.
Meanwhile, High Point might just pull off the upset against Virginia...
Re: FanLax Forum Poll
Posted: Tue Feb 25, 2020 7:24 pm
by NElaxtalent
ICGrad wrote: ↑Tue Feb 25, 2020 7:13 pm
I'm a little hesitant to call a 9-goal loss to PSU a "good" loss.
I mean, for me personally, I absolutely took the margin of defeat in Villanova's two losses into account when I ranked them.
+1 (esp the margin)
Re: FanLax Forum Poll
Posted: Tue Feb 25, 2020 7:30 pm
by Matnum PI
ICGrad wrote: ↑Tue Feb 25, 2020 7:13 pmThat's the rationale/computer modelling that sees an 8-7 JHU team make the tourney...
8-7 and the #1 SOS and 2 victories over Maryland and... It's more than just 8-7.
Separately, it's a philosophical difference. Some value game scores. Some do not. Hamilton loses 11-10 to the eventual National Champion in OT and... Wow, I didn't know Hamilton was so good! (For the record, Hamilton isn't so good.) Personally, I don't see it that way. Ws and Ls. That's why an OT loss hurts so much...
Re: FanLax Forum Poll
Posted: Tue Feb 25, 2020 7:35 pm
by WOMBAT, Mod Emeritus
I see the weekly airing of grievances has gotten off to a strong start.
Re: FanLax Forum Poll
Posted: Tue Feb 25, 2020 7:50 pm
by Matnum PI
Listen, if those buffoons over in the Politics Forum can do what they do, we should be able to raise our voices a little over here about team rankings.
Re: FanLax Forum Poll
Posted: Tue Feb 25, 2020 8:07 pm
by CU77
For fans of using Ws and Ls only, and cold starts (all gods chillun equal at dawn), there's KRACH:
https://mattcarberry.com/ZRatings/Z-MLX.HTM
Re: FanLax Forum Poll
Posted: Tue Feb 25, 2020 8:54 pm
by ICGrad
Re: FanLax Forum Poll
Posted: Tue Feb 25, 2020 9:32 pm
by Matnum PI
I'm not a big Krach fan. But I do like
Massey. Though not for all sports at all levels. One size does not fit all.
Re: FanLax Forum Poll
Posted: Tue Feb 25, 2020 10:32 pm
by laxpere
Matnum PI wrote: ↑Tue Feb 25, 2020 7:07 pm
Doing rankings based on head-to-head results is very short-lived. It doesn't take long before there are circular references and contradictions.
I think that I'll be able to adapt as the season progresses. Now, I'll really have a dilemna when Harvard beats #1 Yale. They took it on the chin with a "bad" loss tonight in Wooster. Should I give High Point credit for a "good" loss to Virginia?
Re: FanLax Forum Poll
Posted: Tue Feb 25, 2020 10:55 pm
by Matnum PI
laxpere wrote: ↑Tue Feb 25, 2020 10:32 pm
Should I give High Point credit for a "good" loss to Virginia?
Correct. The Forum Poll has UVA at #7 and has High Point as unranked. For HP, losing to #7 UVA is a good loss.
Re: FanLax Forum Poll
Posted: Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:17 pm
by WOMBAT, Mod Emeritus
LOL. At #52... Hopkins.
No longer a Top 20 program. Hold my beer! No longer a Top 50 program.
Re: FanLax Forum Poll
Posted: Wed Feb 26, 2020 12:33 am
by CU77
But still ahead of Michigan!
Re: FanLax Forum Poll
Posted: Wed Feb 26, 2020 11:33 am
by laxxygilmore
Well, if the New Math Al Goreithm is utilized, then I look forward to Hop and Navy landing in the Top 5! 
