LaxPower Back-Up Stick

10stone5 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 15, 2020 9:41 pm

a fan wrote: ↑Sat Aug 15, 2020 8:02 pm

HopFan16 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 15, 2020 7:41 pm I agree with '06 on virtually nothing, but he is absolutely right here. Pretty sure he's just stating a fact about the IL class rankings, not making a value judgment about those schools' recruits. Those programs have all had good years in spite of not being ranked highly in the eyes of Inside Lacrosse.

Ah. Got it.
Well...what does that tell you about IL's ability to forecast who does well, as JHU06 put it....in May?

I don’t actually disagree with any of this,
but, just pointing out,
Towson did have a top xx IL class in 2013
and they got a top 5-10 transfer in Spencer Parks.

IL ranked Towson's class #14 that year. So while that is high (especially for them), not sure I'd call that "elite."

Farfromgeneva wrote: ↑Sat Aug 15, 2020 9:48 pm Plus the Thompsons, Fields, Ierlan, Riordan, Nanticoke, etc. If anything it seems like Marr has almost underperformed since it’s been discussed often that Albany has become the Native/OCC school of choice over Cuse this past decade.

Sort of like the revisionist bit where no one knew about Pat Spencer and yet he was something like #7 as a Senior.

Similar story here—even in the Thompsons' year, Albany's class as a whole was only ranked #18. They were #13 with Nanticoke. Loyola was #14 Spencer's year. None of these schools' recruiting classes have cracked an IL top 10 in the last decade. Which I think supports the original argument.

That IL is whack? Where was Hop these years?

Farfromgeneva wrote: ↑Sat Aug 15, 2020 10:06 pm That IL is whack? Where was Hop these years?

With respect to the classes discussed above—was IL really that far off? Spencer's class only made one Final Four (as freshmen). The Thompsons made zero.

Hop's classes have typically been top 5, with a few ranked #1. Obviously IL ranked some of them too high and/or the previous staff failed to get the most out of that talent...likely some combination of both.

Ranking recruiting classes is like ranking NFL drafts. No one actually knows how kids are going to turn out and so ranking classes on an ex post basis (i.e. how the kids actually turned out four years later) is just dumb. What matters in ranking a recruiting class is how many kids did you get that other/better programs wanted. If Hop gets a kid who was offered by Duke, UVa and UNC, that's a win, irrespective of whether he ever plays in a game. And that's the worth of the IL rankings. They are in effect, a measure of conventional wisdom with respect to the desirability of a particular recruit. If you get all the kids everyone else wanted, you've done great, even if they don't pan out. The rankings shouldn't be viewed solely as a prediction of which recruits are going to be the best DI players. Now of course there is a correlation between the which players are most desired and which are likely to be the best, but recruiters aren't actually stupid (though they are subject to groupthink). And let's not forget the value of the development of the player once he's actually in the program. Again, some kids are going to succeed no matter where they are. Others need the right coaching and environment.

So yeah, in the past, Hop got a lot a kids that a lot of other programs wanted, which was reflected in the IL rankings. And they didn't all pan out. In fact, the best player we've had over the last 6-7 years wasn't that highly thought of as a recruit (Ryan Brown). And I believe the old staff didn't do a good job of developing players.

We'll see what happens going forward. I don't believe that PM is likely to follow and/or set conventional wisdom as Petro was. So I expect fewer IL highly ranked recruits. The question is whether that's 3-5 a year or 1-2 a year.

Got it, the value of the rankings and worth is in their groupthink and Petro and his staff failed.

jhu06 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 15, 2020 3:34 pm

HopFan16 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 15, 2020 1:52 pm

nyjay wrote: ↑Sat Aug 15, 2020 12:45 pm That's a lot of turnover. Probably not optimal given the current circumstances, but change was definitely needed. Next year (in whatever form it may take) might be tougher than I previously thought, but I remain optimistic for the longer term future. I'm really very curious what the 22 recruiting class ends up looking like. You could convince me that we'll end up with a fair number of highly ranked kids, including some top 10 kind of kids, and you could just as easily convince me that we'll end up with a bunch of unranked Canadians and box kids. I really have no idea what to expect.

Worth noting that Milliman recruited four top 100 IL players to Cornell in the 2020 class (all of whom ended up making this year's UAAA team), including a top 10 player in Kirst (and a top 20 defender in Follows). So while I believe him that recruiting classes will look different from here on out I still think we'll be in the mix for *some* of the same kids Petro would have went after. My guess is it'll be a mix of the IL type kids (though probably not as many as Petro used to land) and the more relatively unknown Canadians/box-background kids. Remains to be seen how the assistant coaches affect recruiting beyond that.

If you look at the rankings over the last decade you see duke, unc, maryland, uva, denver notre dame who have had their may success. You see albany loyola and towson who never had elite classes have good programs and then you see us, georgeotown, harvard whose classes really haven't lived up to the billings and I don't know what to make of syracuse. Petro had a lot of highly ranked recruits, we have a lot of veterans leave, that has to opened up a lot of scholarship $ for milliman to play with.

Player development and coaching is far more important than recruiting class ranking. IL’s rankings were reverse engineered to marry up with UA selections and where a recruit was landing. At least that’s how it was a few years ago. There is probably more visibility on recruits now but I have looked at it historically and player ranking has had little bearing on who becomes an All American.

I will put it more bluntly. The IL rankings are BS.

Why? Despite yeoman efforts by some, like Ty, I have never seen how a handful of people at IL can possibly see thousands of HS players and rank them.

So, what are IL’s primary sources of information? Coaches. Coaches at the college level and some, far from all, obviously, HS coaches. Coaches of camps.

Now, I just don’t think this works that well on several levels. First, there are biases. Second, the coaches aren’t infallible in their assessments. Third, there are many reasons here not to completely show your cards and instead play a campaign of disinformation to some degree. Be coy. I could go on.

The whole underpinning of the IL rankings is shaky. The fact that they get close at all is surprising - BUT - that’s because some recruits truly are “can’t miss” with projections of them somewhere in the ballpark, barring injury. AND, the rankings only enumerate the top 100 or 200 (right? - I’m not sure of the cutoff number. It sure isn’t 1000 or ALL).

Rankings are created to sell a product - publications, website clicks, and are merely a popularity contest between programs that creates talk and interest, particularly in the offseason.

Still, they are BS.

Bottom line - prove it when you step onto a D1 field.

It is mildly interesting that IL ranked its top 100 players in the 2021 class before any of them committed and the class rankings still look exactly the same as they did when they were making the rankings after they knew where kids were going to school. The top 10 right now based on their star-rating system is UNC, Maryland, Notre Dame, Penn State, Duke, Penn, Virginia, Yale, Michigan, Brown. (We were in the top 5 before most of Petro's recruits decommitted.) So while I don't doubt there was some bias in previous versions based on where kids had already committed, it seems that doing the rankings pre-commitments hasn't really changed the calculus very much. Will be interested to see if the 2022 class continues that pattern—I'm pretty sure it will.

In the alumni call Milliman expressed his view about all this which I tend to agree with. While he respects the evaluators—particularly Xanders who really does put the work in—he puts basically zero stock into the end rankings result. Which makes sense from a coaching standpoint. That seemed to be working pretty well for him at Cornell. The rankings are really just fodder for people on message boards and Twitter to argue over and for Quint to reference on ESPNU broadcasts.

Take rankings with a grain of salt. Top twenty five in class are usually identified early and publicized ad nauseam , they do tend to pan out but beyond that top tier many spots could be interchanged given margins and subjectivity. Some programs seem to play it safe and recruit off these rankings but there are also some who recruit solely off what they value and project irregardless of any rank.

by elite I meant rated top 5, not how good the kids turned out or were when recruited. I'm sorry for the discrepancy. I did a post a long time ago comparing uva/loyola/hop back when loyola won and uva was still good under starsia. Loyola consistently had players who outperformed their rankings. we did not.

I have a lot of respect for ty. we are now a nation that used to have great local preps newspaper coverage, depth on college sports and now it's basically millenials and gen zers who all want to be the next woj, schefter, fantasy guy, gambling guy or barstool big cat. xanders and some of the il folks went another way into a sport that's not the top of pecking order financially or career wise. He's not perfect, this isn't 25 years ago where you had a limited geographic region of talent to compare against each other and it's only going to get harder w/corona. many of you like 51 know these kids personally it's not just hs aa to college champion.

I have no idea how the scholarship game works. It seems like petro was always putting together teams with superstar recruits and milliman is looking more for guys who fit what he wants to do that aren't as highly ranked so perhaps we'll have more balanced rosters now because he's got more $ to put into other positions.

I hope hopkins cut the price of tuition for the fall. When I think back to my experience I think of all the extracurriculars and other stuff that the kids aren't getting and shouldn't be charged for. Plus the food plan was obviously bloated.

Pinto bean loaf

jhu06 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 16, 2020 12:52 pm by elite I meant rated top 5, not how good the kids turned out or were when recruited. I'm sorry for the discrepancy. I did a post a long time ago comparing uva/loyola/hop back when loyola won and uva was still good under starsia. Loyola consistently had players who outperformed their rankings. we did not.

I have a lot of respect for ty. we are now a nation that used to have great local preps newspaper coverage, depth on college sports and now it's basically millenials and gen zers who all want to be the next woj, schefter, fantasy guy, gambling guy or barstool big cat. xanders and some of the il folks went another way into a sport that's not the top of pecking order financially or career wise. He's not perfect, this isn't 25 years ago where you had a limited geographic region of talent to compare against each other and it's only going to get harder w/corona. many of you like 51 know these kids personally it's not just hs aa to college champion.

I have no idea how the scholarship game works. It seems like petro was always putting together teams with superstar recruits and milliman is looking more for guys who fit what he wants to do that aren't as highly ranked so perhaps we'll have more balanced rosters now because he's got more $ to put into other positions.

I hope hopkins cut the price of tuition for the fall. When I think back to my experience I think of all the extracurriculars and other stuff that the kids aren't getting and shouldn't be charged for. Plus the food plan was obviously bloated.

I heard it was a one time 10% tuition drop.

flalax22 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 18, 2020 8:25 am

jhu06 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 16, 2020 12:52 pm by elite I meant rated top 5, not how good the kids turned out or were when recruited. I'm sorry for the discrepancy. I did a post a long time ago comparing uva/loyola/hop back when loyola won and uva was still good under starsia. Loyola consistently had players who outperformed their rankings. we did not.

I have a lot of respect for ty. we are now a nation that used to have great local preps newspaper coverage, depth on college sports and now it's basically millenials and gen zers who all want to be the next woj, schefter, fantasy guy, gambling guy or barstool big cat. xanders and some of the il folks went another way into a sport that's not the top of pecking order financially or career wise. He's not perfect, this isn't 25 years ago where you had a limited geographic region of talent to compare against each other and it's only going to get harder w/corona. many of you like 51 know these kids personally it's not just hs aa to college champion.

I have no idea how the scholarship game works. It seems like petro was always putting together teams with superstar recruits and milliman is looking more for guys who fit what he wants to do that aren't as highly ranked so perhaps we'll have more balanced rosters now because he's got more $ to put into other positions.

I hope hopkins cut the price of tuition for the fall. When I think back to my experience I think of all the extracurriculars and other stuff that the kids aren't getting and shouldn't be charged for. Plus the food plan was obviously bloated.

I heard it was a one time 10% tuition drop.

what happened to the phonathon?

not mens lax related but article on impact of corona on d3 programs. $ saved from not having to put on championships but students are revenue drivers for schools so there's a financial hit there.

https://frontofficesports.com/division- ... d-changes/

jhu06 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 18, 2020 10:11 am

flalax22 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 18, 2020 8:25 am

jhu06 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 16, 2020 12:52 pm by elite I meant rated top 5, not how good the kids turned out or were when recruited. I'm sorry for the discrepancy. I did a post a long time ago comparing uva/loyola/hop back when loyola won and uva was still good under starsia. Loyola consistently had players who outperformed their rankings. we did not.

I have a lot of respect for ty. we are now a nation that used to have great local preps newspaper coverage, depth on college sports and now it's basically millenials and gen zers who all want to be the next woj, schefter, fantasy guy, gambling guy or barstool big cat. xanders and some of the il folks went another way into a sport that's not the top of pecking order financially or career wise. He's not perfect, this isn't 25 years ago where you had a limited geographic region of talent to compare against each other and it's only going to get harder w/corona. many of you like 51 know these kids personally it's not just hs aa to college champion.

I have no idea how the scholarship game works. It seems like petro was always putting together teams with superstar recruits and milliman is looking more for guys who fit what he wants to do that aren't as highly ranked so perhaps we'll have more balanced rosters now because he's got more $ to put into other positions.

I hope hopkins cut the price of tuition for the fall. When I think back to my experience I think of all the extracurriculars and other stuff that the kids aren't getting and shouldn't be charged for. Plus the food plan was obviously bloated.

I heard it was a one time 10% tuition drop.

what happened to the phonathon?

Don't know but I definitely got a call this summer with a 410-516-xxxx number. I can only assume they were looking for money.

WOMBAT, Mod Emeritus wrote: ↑Tue Aug 18, 2020 5:18 am Pinto bean loaf

Breakfasts were good (especially the eggs and French toast), although I missed too many of those meals in college.

DocBarrister

Turns out the DOLO search was.....interesting.

Glad PM was finally able to get it nailed down.

LaxPundit07 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 20, 2020 9:39 am Turns out the DOLO search was.....interesting.

Glad PM was finally able to get it nailed down.

Do tell.

nyjay wrote: ↑Thu Aug 20, 2020 9:46 am

LaxPundit07 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 20, 2020 9:39 am Turns out the DOLO search was.....interesting.

Glad PM was finally able to get it nailed down.

Do tell.

I heard some interesting high profile names were interviewed and offered. These candidates were more on the coaching than administrator side of things. I know nothing of the new hire other than Junior must be familiar and comfortable with him.

nyjay wrote: ↑Thu Aug 20, 2020 9:46 am

LaxPundit07 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 20, 2020 9:39 am Turns out the DOLO search was.....interesting.

Glad PM was finally able to get it nailed down.

Do tell.

See your inbox.