All things CoronaVirus

[SCLaxAttack]

last i saw 12-15s were at about 35%. stepping on the gas for 6-12s isn't going to help much in avoiding a cluster. if r0 truly is closer to 6 with delta, there's going to be infection happening. and there always was going to be.

and as it's a one lane construction zone (20k per day infection in the whole u.s.), that "maybe by the fall" may very well go back to "early '22" anyway.

my hope is our very high numbers for seniors gets better, same with any immunocompromised if they can vaxx, and the numbers at least for 50's and maybe 40s get a bit better over time.

I never thought Covid would be gone anytime soon. I can live with something that’s not too disruptive. We will see what the fall brings. I have hope that the fall peak is 1/4 to 1/3 of what it was last year. That would be a big step. Anything better than that is a home run. Time will tell.

Unless vaccination rates kick up soon, I think your fall dream will be a disappointment.

this is joe's chance. the 28 - 41 million mouth breathers at wal-mart aren't answering the cattle call blue light special.

but the 56 - 69 million others are in play.
#squashthevirus

... what can he do, if these people don't want to be vaccinated? The FEDS are not going to mandate it, they have made that pretty clear. The private sector and the states are the only ones that can mandate or people can just change their minds. Door knocking will be tried, but I am skeptical that it will improve the situation by much.

PS: There is also this meme being repeated about people not willing to be vaccinated because they are waiting for FDA general marketing approval. I am skeptical that is anything but a convenient excuse.

i'm not in charge, dunno. somebody should have a plan, though. i could list a lot of things as possibles. so could you.

it's said messaging is important. people go with what's foremost in their memories. anything well done that could erase the tone pre-election on the vaxx would help.
transparency could be part of that messaging? how about if it was blasted how many people have died since end-jan fully (and even partially since early jan) vaccinated vs unvaccinated? what are those raw numbers? the "see how it's going crowd", which is supposed to be pretty big, might lap that up. billboard counters everywhere or too morbid?

haven't lots of peeps said access is an issue for some parts of society? if that's true, shouldn't we be able to find out where that is and help solve it?

we have databases on who got vaxxed and then demographic data (minorities, political affiliation) on who didn't. can't they be targeted locally using fed and vax portal big data? maybe they are already.

people are back to work many places. are there businesses in suburbs that are large enough they could run "door to door", pay the business for an hour of employees' time and leverage 50-150 possibles at once vs "door to door"?

how 'bout the walmart cattle call? instead of offering free vaxx, think they might get a few walmart takers if they were advertising 1/2 off your bill, point of sale, up to $100 off $200 24/7? we're still describing walmart shoppers socioeconomically? we probably have some jnj to still get out of inventory if we're afraid they won't come back.

those might all be dumb ideas. maybe there are better ones. it's gold star on the prez if it can be done, though.

Really like this idea! They are performing outreach in the black and Hispanic communities, have been for a while. I am not seeing any evidence that it is working.

Great ideas! Add CVS, Walgreens, and any food store pharmacy to Walmart. Let the feds fund a $20 in store gift certificate for every vaccination.

[wgdsr]

in other news and pertinent to moi... thought several months ago jnj was going to be running with booster shot news in july or august. stab in the dark, my neighbor thought i was nuts and broadcasted our discussion, which ftr i'm good with. all discussions with neighbors should be treated as an email that could end up anywhere.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -over-time

for now, looking i guess at late august numbers on a booster. then it's fda approval i guess (month +?). in the meantime, peeps evidently are housing mrna boosters in fear of delta and usurping the system to get them. maybe at walmart.

[Typical Lax Dad]

https://ktla.com/news/local-news/l-a-co ... -saturday/

well that didn't last long. 2 weeks after the statewide mask mandate is lifted, la county has seen trends reverse as could be expected, and the masks are back on.

no word whether the health chief reached out to cdc to see whether they've changed their stance on vaccinated indoors and at what levels.
#followthescience

la and sk should huddle up: https://twitter.com/ianmsc/status/14153 ... 96576?s=21

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/20 ... ing-virus/

This may be a clue.

copy and paste me the juicy parts. wapo is freezing me out.

Cases went up as mask and social distance mandates eased. I guess South Koreans are humans too

that's the confirm on masks in the community i've been looking for. thank you.

“South Korea reverses loosening of mask mandate, ramps up curbs as cases soar”

SK should call LA

[wgdsr]

https://ktla.com/news/local-news/l-a-co ... -saturday/

well that didn't last long. 2 weeks after the statewide mask mandate is lifted, la county has seen trends reverse as could be expected, and the masks are back on.

no word whether the health chief reached out to cdc to see whether they've changed their stance on vaccinated indoors and at what levels.
#followthescience

la and sk should huddle up: https://twitter.com/ianmsc/status/14153 ... 96576?s=21

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/20 ... ing-virus/

This may be a clue.

copy and paste me the juicy parts. wapo is freezing me out.

Cases went up as mask and social distance mandates eased. I guess South Koreans are humans too

that's the confirm on masks in the community i've been looking for. thank you.

“South Korea reverses loosening of mask mandate, ramps up curbs as cases soar”

SK should call LA

i heard cases soared when la loosened their mandates also. i love science.

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-paci ... 021-07-14/

looks like they're cutting gatherings to 2 people before 6 pm in seoul, so they should be fine. understand doc had to reschedule a trip in homage to their covid response (note: this not actually true). some people may think that's a bit ironic, but i consider it proof of concept.

shame they didn't order enough vaxx.

[Typical Lax Dad]

https://ktla.com/news/local-news/l-a-co ... -saturday/

well that didn't last long. 2 weeks after the statewide mask mandate is lifted, la county has seen trends reverse as could be expected, and the masks are back on.

no word whether the health chief reached out to cdc to see whether they've changed their stance on vaccinated indoors and at what levels.
#followthescience

la and sk should huddle up: https://twitter.com/ianmsc/status/14153 ... 96576?s=21

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/20 ... ing-virus/

This may be a clue.

copy and paste me the juicy parts. wapo is freezing me out.

Cases went up as mask and social distance mandates eased. I guess South Koreans are humans too

that's the confirm on masks in the community i've been looking for. thank you.

“South Korea reverses loosening of mask mandate, ramps up curbs as cases soar”

SK should call LA

i heard cases soared when la loosened their mandates also. i love science.

Nahhh…Fauci said we didn’t need masks during the first week of February 2020. Masks are political. I sneezed with mine on today. I should have taken it off first. Social distancing is stupid. I am in good physical shape.

[wgdsr]

https://ktla.com/news/local-news/l-a-co ... -saturday/

well that didn't last long. 2 weeks after the statewide mask mandate is lifted, la county has seen trends reverse as could be expected, and the masks are back on.

no word whether the health chief reached out to cdc to see whether they've changed their stance on vaccinated indoors and at what levels.
#followthescience

la and sk should huddle up: https://twitter.com/ianmsc/status/14153 ... 96576?s=21

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/20 ... ing-virus/

This may be a clue.

copy and paste me the juicy parts. wapo is freezing me out.

Cases went up as mask and social distance mandates eased. I guess South Koreans are humans too

that's the confirm on masks in the community i've been looking for. thank you.

“South Korea reverses loosening of mask mandate, ramps up curbs as cases soar”

SK should call LA

i heard cases soared when la loosened their mandates also. i love science.

Nahhh…Fauci said we didn’t need masks during the first week of February 2020. Masks are political. I sneezed with mine on today. I should have taken it off first. Social distancing is stupid. I am in good physical shape.

i'm sorry, maybe the wapo article said something different... the loosened mask rules were vaccinated/semi-vaccinated could take them off outdoors?

[Typical Lax Dad]

https://ktla.com/news/local-news/l-a-co ... -saturday/

well that didn't last long. 2 weeks after the statewide mask mandate is lifted, la county has seen trends reverse as could be expected, and the masks are back on.

no word whether the health chief reached out to cdc to see whether they've changed their stance on vaccinated indoors and at what levels.
#followthescience

la and sk should huddle up: https://twitter.com/ianmsc/status/14153 ... 96576?s=21

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/20 ... ing-virus/

This may be a clue.

copy and paste me the juicy parts. wapo is freezing me out.

Cases went up as mask and social distance mandates eased. I guess South Koreans are humans too

that's the confirm on masks in the community i've been looking for. thank you.

“South Korea reverses loosening of mask mandate, ramps up curbs as cases soar”

SK should call LA

i heard cases soared when la loosened their mandates also. i love science.

Nahhh…Fauci said we didn’t need masks during the first week of February 2020. Masks are political. I sneezed with mine on today. I should have taken it off first. Social distancing is stupid. I am in good physical shape.

i'm sorry, maybe the wapo article said something different... the loosened mask rules were vaccinated/semi-vaccinated could take them off outdoors?

All I know is the officials believe that they let their guard down:

Experts said the country lowered its guard against the coronavirus too soon, with the majority of the population still unvaccinated and outbreaks continuing in the densely populated Seoul area.
Authorities may have given a wrong signal to the public with premature lifting of virus curbs. “The government was complacent about the virus, even as the vaccine rollouts were going slowly,” said Choi Jae-wook, a medical professor at Korea University in Seoul. “With the delta variant spreading in the world, health authorities should have tightened, not eased the virus curbs.”
The latest wave of the virus — which appears to be the worst the country has faced thus far — deals a blow to Seoul’s reputation as a model for infectious-disease response. Early in the pandemic, South Korea received international recognition for controlling the virus with robust testing and contact tracing while avoiding a stringent nationwide lockdown.


Following the recent jump in cases, South Korea is imposing its strongest social distancing curbs in Seoul and neighboring regions before some of its proposed relaxation measures could take place. Starting July 12, schools go remote, nightlife venues will be closed and evening social gatherings will be capped at two people. Rallies are banned and only family members can attend weddings and funerals.
The government also suspended an earlier exemption for vaccinated residents to go mask-free outdoors.

Oh well hopefully they get their arms around it. Maybe a call into LA would help.

[wgdsr]

https://ktla.com/news/local-news/l-a-co ... -saturday/

well that didn't last long. 2 weeks after the statewide mask mandate is lifted, la county has seen trends reverse as could be expected, and the masks are back on.

no word whether the health chief reached out to cdc to see whether they've changed their stance on vaccinated indoors and at what levels.
#followthescience

la and sk should huddle up: https://twitter.com/ianmsc/status/14153 ... 96576?s=21

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/20 ... ing-virus/

This may be a clue.

copy and paste me the juicy parts. wapo is freezing me out.

Cases went up as mask and social distance mandates eased. I guess South Koreans are humans too

that's the confirm on masks in the community i've been looking for. thank you.

“South Korea reverses loosening of mask mandate, ramps up curbs as cases soar”

SK should call LA

i heard cases soared when la loosened their mandates also. i love science.

Nahhh…Fauci said we didn’t need masks during the first week of February 2020. Masks are political. I sneezed with mine on today. I should have taken it off first. Social distancing is stupid. I am in good physical shape.

i'm sorry, maybe the wapo article said something different... the loosened mask rules were vaccinated/semi-vaccinated could take them off outdoors?

All I know is the officials let their guard down:

Experts said the country lowered its guard against the coronavirus too soon, with the majority of the population still unvaccinated and outbreaks continuing in the densely populated Seoul area.
Authorities may have given a wrong signal to the public with premature lifting of virus curbs. “The government was complacent about the virus, even as the vaccine rollouts were going slowly,” said Choi Jae-wook, a medical professor at Korea University in Seoul. “With the delta variant spreading in the world, health authorities should have tightened, not eased the virus curbs.”
The latest wave of the virus — which appears to be the worst the country has faced thus far — deals a blow to Seoul’s reputation as a model for infectious-disease response. Early in the pandemic, South Korea received international recognition for controlling the virus with robust testing and contact tracing while avoiding a stringent nationwide lockdown.


Following the recent jump in cases, South Korea is imposing its strongest social distancing curbs in Seoul and neighboring regions before some of its proposed relaxation measures could take place. Starting July 12, schools go remote, nightlife venues will be closed and evening social gatherings will be capped at two people. Rallies are banned and only family members can attend weddings and funerals.
The government also suspended an earlier exemption for vaccinated residents to go mask-free outdoors.

Oh well hopefully they get their arms around it. Maybe a call into LA would help.

probably was the outdoor vaccinated, at 0.3% of all infections, taken down 5 or 10 fold to 0.06 - 0.03% by the vaccinated.

don't forget to wash your mask.

[Typical Lax Dad]

https://ktla.com/news/local-news/l-a-co ... -saturday/

well that didn't last long. 2 weeks after the statewide mask mandate is lifted, la county has seen trends reverse as could be expected, and the masks are back on.

no word whether the health chief reached out to cdc to see whether they've changed their stance on vaccinated indoors and at what levels.
#followthescience

la and sk should huddle up: https://twitter.com/ianmsc/status/14153 ... 96576?s=21

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/20 ... ing-virus/

This may be a clue.

copy and paste me the juicy parts. wapo is freezing me out.

Cases went up as mask and social distance mandates eased. I guess South Koreans are humans too

that's the confirm on masks in the community i've been looking for. thank you.

“South Korea reverses loosening of mask mandate, ramps up curbs as cases soar”

SK should call LA

i heard cases soared when la loosened their mandates also. i love science.

Nahhh…Fauci said we didn’t need masks during the first week of February 2020. Masks are political. I sneezed with mine on today. I should have taken it off first. Social distancing is stupid. I am in good physical shape.

i'm sorry, maybe the wapo article said something different... the loosened mask rules were vaccinated/semi-vaccinated could take them off outdoors?

All I know is the officials let their guard down:

Experts said the country lowered its guard against the coronavirus too soon, with the majority of the population still unvaccinated and outbreaks continuing in the densely populated Seoul area.
Authorities may have given a wrong signal to the public with premature lifting of virus curbs. “The government was complacent about the virus, even as the vaccine rollouts were going slowly,” said Choi Jae-wook, a medical professor at Korea University in Seoul. “With the delta variant spreading in the world, health authorities should have tightened, not eased the virus curbs.”
The latest wave of the virus — which appears to be the worst the country has faced thus far — deals a blow to Seoul’s reputation as a model for infectious-disease response. Early in the pandemic, South Korea received international recognition for controlling the virus with robust testing and contact tracing while avoiding a stringent nationwide lockdown.


Following the recent jump in cases, South Korea is imposing its strongest social distancing curbs in Seoul and neighboring regions before some of its proposed relaxation measures could take place. Starting July 12, schools go remote, nightlife venues will be closed and evening social gatherings will be capped at two people. Rallies are banned and only family members can attend weddings and funerals.
The government also suspended an earlier exemption for vaccinated residents to go mask-free outdoors.

Oh well hopefully they get their arms around it. Maybe a call into LA would help.

probably was the outdoor vaccinated, at 0.3% of all infections, taken down 5 or 10 fold to 0.06 - 0.03% by the vaccinated.

don't forget to wash your mask.

I rotate them. Four in rotation for a couple of weeks and then I toss them. Not really around many people so they never got a lot of use. I probably have 50 N-95 left. I don’t believe I will need that many.

[wgdsr]

https://ktla.com/news/local-news/l-a-co ... -saturday/

well that didn't last long. 2 weeks after the statewide mask mandate is lifted, la county has seen trends reverse as could be expected, and the masks are back on.

no word whether the health chief reached out to cdc to see whether they've changed their stance on vaccinated indoors and at what levels.
#followthescience

la and sk should huddle up: https://twitter.com/ianmsc/status/14153 ... 96576?s=21

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/20 ... ing-virus/

This may be a clue.

copy and paste me the juicy parts. wapo is freezing me out.

Cases went up as mask and social distance mandates eased. I guess South Koreans are humans too

that's the confirm on masks in the community i've been looking for. thank you.

“South Korea reverses loosening of mask mandate, ramps up curbs as cases soar”

SK should call LA

i heard cases soared when la loosened their mandates also. i love science.

Nahhh…Fauci said we didn’t need masks during the first week of February 2020. Masks are political. I sneezed with mine on today. I should have taken it off first. Social distancing is stupid. I am in good physical shape.

i'm sorry, maybe the wapo article said something different... the loosened mask rules were vaccinated/semi-vaccinated could take them off outdoors?

All I know is the officials let their guard down:

Experts said the country lowered its guard against the coronavirus too soon, with the majority of the population still unvaccinated and outbreaks continuing in the densely populated Seoul area.
Authorities may have given a wrong signal to the public with premature lifting of virus curbs. “The government was complacent about the virus, even as the vaccine rollouts were going slowly,” said Choi Jae-wook, a medical professor at Korea University in Seoul. “With the delta variant spreading in the world, health authorities should have tightened, not eased the virus curbs.”
The latest wave of the virus — which appears to be the worst the country has faced thus far — deals a blow to Seoul’s reputation as a model for infectious-disease response. Early in the pandemic, South Korea received international recognition for controlling the virus with robust testing and contact tracing while avoiding a stringent nationwide lockdown.


Following the recent jump in cases, South Korea is imposing its strongest social distancing curbs in Seoul and neighboring regions before some of its proposed relaxation measures could take place. Starting July 12, schools go remote, nightlife venues will be closed and evening social gatherings will be capped at two people. Rallies are banned and only family members can attend weddings and funerals.
The government also suspended an earlier exemption for vaccinated residents to go mask-free outdoors.

Oh well hopefully they get their arms around it. Maybe a call into LA would help.

probably was the outdoor vaccinated, at 0.3% of all infections, taken down 5 or 10 fold to 0.06 - 0.03% by the vaccinated.

don't forget to wash your mask.

I rotate them. Four in rotation for a couple of weeks and then I toss them. Not really around many people so they never got a lot of use. I probably have 50 N-95 left. I don’t believe I will need that many.

you will. wait 'til the fall.

i wonder if joe's proposed comprehensive response is still up on his website, with updates on progress for all of them?

[Typical Lax Dad]

https://ktla.com/news/local-news/l-a-co ... -saturday/

well that didn't last long. 2 weeks after the statewide mask mandate is lifted, la county has seen trends reverse as could be expected, and the masks are back on.

no word whether the health chief reached out to cdc to see whether they've changed their stance on vaccinated indoors and at what levels.
#followthescience

la and sk should huddle up: https://twitter.com/ianmsc/status/14153 ... 96576?s=21

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/20 ... ing-virus/

This may be a clue.

copy and paste me the juicy parts. wapo is freezing me out.

Cases went up as mask and social distance mandates eased. I guess South Koreans are humans too

that's the confirm on masks in the community i've been looking for. thank you.

“South Korea reverses loosening of mask mandate, ramps up curbs as cases soar”

SK should call LA

i heard cases soared when la loosened their mandates also. i love science.

Nahhh…Fauci said we didn’t need masks during the first week of February 2020. Masks are political. I sneezed with mine on today. I should have taken it off first. Social distancing is stupid. I am in good physical shape.

i'm sorry, maybe the wapo article said something different... the loosened mask rules were vaccinated/semi-vaccinated could take them off outdoors?

All I know is the officials let their guard down:

Experts said the country lowered its guard against the coronavirus too soon, with the majority of the population still unvaccinated and outbreaks continuing in the densely populated Seoul area.
Authorities may have given a wrong signal to the public with premature lifting of virus curbs. “The government was complacent about the virus, even as the vaccine rollouts were going slowly,” said Choi Jae-wook, a medical professor at Korea University in Seoul. “With the delta variant spreading in the world, health authorities should have tightened, not eased the virus curbs.”
The latest wave of the virus — which appears to be the worst the country has faced thus far — deals a blow to Seoul’s reputation as a model for infectious-disease response. Early in the pandemic, South Korea received international recognition for controlling the virus with robust testing and contact tracing while avoiding a stringent nationwide lockdown.


Following the recent jump in cases, South Korea is imposing its strongest social distancing curbs in Seoul and neighboring regions before some of its proposed relaxation measures could take place. Starting July 12, schools go remote, nightlife venues will be closed and evening social gatherings will be capped at two people. Rallies are banned and only family members can attend weddings and funerals.
The government also suspended an earlier exemption for vaccinated residents to go mask-free outdoors.

Oh well hopefully they get their arms around it. Maybe a call into LA would help.

probably was the outdoor vaccinated, at 0.3% of all infections, taken down 5 or 10 fold to 0.06 - 0.03% by the vaccinated.

don't forget to wash your mask.

I rotate them. Four in rotation for a couple of weeks and then I toss them. Not really around many people so they never got a lot of use. I probably have 50 N-95 left. I don’t believe I will need that many.

you will. wait 'til the fall.

i wonder if joe's proposed comprehensive response is still up on his website, with updates on progress for all of them?

Not sure. The government doesn’t tell me what to do.

[wgdsr]

good for you. you'll fit right in.

just things i think about when i wonder where everyone's gone on coronavirus directives. maybe to another site.

[Typical Lax Dad]

good for you. you'll fit right in.

just things i think about when i wonder where everyone's gone on coronavirus directives. maybe to another site.

Not sure I know anyone that checked that site.

[wgdsr]

good for you. you'll fit right in.

just things i think about when i wonder where everyone's gone on coronavirus directives. maybe to another site.

Not sure I know anyone that checked that site.

squash.com

i'm talking about here. used to be we had a lot of great ideas on what we should be doing at the federal level to combat the virus. some real good critique.

now mass testing, contact tracing fruitless. what can you do about vaccine uptake, why bother? on to infrastructure. it's weird. like we don't want to be south korea all of a sudden.

[Typical Lax Dad]

Mouth breathers: https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/318 ... e-covid-19

[wgdsr]

Mouth breathers: https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/318 ... e-covid-19

cashman seems like a bit of a covid expert, predicting positive tests. i've emailed him and invited him to the thread.

[Typical Lax Dad]

Mouth breathers: https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/318 ... e-covid-19

cashman seems like a bit of a covid expert, predicting positive tests. i've emailed him and invited him to the thread.

He’s a downer! What’s the point in being negative? He needs to live his life with no fear…..why is he talking about a test might be positive. That kind of negative thinking never solves anything. We are Americans. We will figure it out. Cashman needs to go!

[wgdsr]

Mouth breathers: https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/318 ... e-covid-19

cashman seems like a bit of a covid expert, predicting positive tests. i've emailed him and invited him to the thread.

He’s a downer! What’s the point in being negative? He needs to live his life with no fear…..why is he talking about a test might be positive. That kind of negative thinking never solves anything. We are Americans. We will figure it out. Cashman needs to go!

go usa!! you are spot on. cashman is no steinbrenner. george was a bootstrap guy.

[ggait]

Mouth breathers: https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/318 ... e-covid-19

Yup, but too well paid, I guess, to shop at Walmart and hear about the free on-demand shots.

Not all of the infected Yanks were vaxed. Bosox were below 85%.

There's nothing much you can do about breakthrough infections (I was convinced I had one last week but it was just a summer cold).

But what are you thinking, dudes? Your multi-million dollar job consists of constantly traveling and working in close quarters with a large group of dozens of people. And you don't get a shot???

[CU88]

How many breakthrough cases are there?

Katelyn Jetelina
Jul 16


The news is peppered with anecdotal evidence of breakthrough cases. The headlines are terrifying and the personal stories are tragic:

Boston Globe: “79 fully vaccinated Massachusetts residents have died, 303 hospitalized in very rare COVID ‘breakthrough’ cases, officials say”

The Guardian: “COVID outbreak among vaccinated Vegas hospital workers underscores Delta risks”

NBC: “Illinois Coronavirus Updates: Breakthrough COVID Cases Are 2% of State's Deaths This Year”

So, why do breakthrough cases happen?

We shouldn’t think of vaccine protection as binary (yes or no). It’s better to think of protection on a spectrum: On one end the vaccine will protect people in every situation and on the other end it doesn’t protect people at all. And each of us land somewhere in between.

There are many factors that determine where we land:

There’s of course the variants. Depending which variant you come in contact with determines your level of protection. mRNA vaccines’ efficacy is now ~88% against Delta. If 100 people got COVID19, Pfizer/Moderna could have prevented 88 of them. 12 people would have still gotten some form of the disease. On the other hand, if people came in contact with the original strain, 95 (out of a 100) would have been prevented.

Some of us just don’t have immune systems that can build protection. For example, it looks like certain drugs for immunocompromised patients reduce and/or prevent protection. Also, older adults are less protected.

Behaviors, too, can predict your place on this spectrum. If a vaccinated person is exposed to a large enough dose of a virus OR exposed to enough unvaccinated people where transmission is high, the virus can overcome the vaccine and cause infection, even among the sturdiest of immune defenses.

And then there’s just luck. Even if you compare twins, the level of protection can differ. Some people will just create fewer or less strong defense mechanisms (antibodies, T cells, and/or memory B cells). And we don’t really know why.

Nonetheless, should the virus make it through, Dr. Ali Ellebody, an immunologist at Washington University in St. Louis, said it best:

“It becomes a race [against] time. The pathogen rushes to copy itself, and the immune system recruits more defenders. The longer the tussle drags on, the more likely the disease is to manifest.”

It’s important to monitor all breakthrough cases.

If we closely monitor them, we can answer some very critical questions like…

Are breakthrough cases happening at the rate in which we expect?

Who’s most likely to break through?

What is the rate of a mild breakthrough case vs. severe breakthrough case?

Are variants, like Delta, causing more (or more severe) breakthrough cases than other variants?

A study was published describing breakthrough cases between January 1-April 30. During this time among 101 million fully vaccinated Americans, 10,262 breakthrough infections were reported to the CDC. Who were they?

63% female

Median age was 58 years (age range was 40–74 years)

10% were hospitalized

2% died. Median age of patients who died was 82 years (age range was 71–89 years)

Genomic sequence data were available for 5% of breakthrough cases

64% were identified as a Variant of Concern (this was before Delta emerged)

Beginning May 1, 2021, though, the CDC transitioned from monitoring all breakthrough infections to investigating only those among patients who are hospitalized or die. The CDC doesn’t have the infrastructure to rigorously investigate all breakthrough cases. They needed to prioritize their operation, so they decided to focus on cases of highest clinical and public health significance.

The CDC continuously publishes the latest count on their website. As of July 6, there were 5,186 severe breakthrough cases. This includes 988 deaths (although it’s important to notice the footnote stating that 255 of these were not directly related to COVID19).

Unfortunately because the CDC does not track asymptomatic or mild breakthrough cases, we have no idea what the true breakthrough rate is in the United States. We just don’t have a clue.


So, we are dependent on other countries that have rigorous surveillance systems in place.

The UK has the best variant surveillance system in the world. The UK alone is responsible for 40% of the world’s COVID19 sequencing. It’s also incredibly fast and the data is made public almost immediately. This helps inform real-time decision-making by public health officials and vaccine sponsors. I continue to be amazed by their efforts.


We can learn a lot from their data- like breakthrough cases due to certain variants. Every week-ish, Public Health England publishes a technical report of the current state of affairs. Here is their latest report from July 9. Within the report, you can find the rate of breakthrough cases per Delta.

From February 1 to June 21, 123,620 Delta cases were sequenced in the UK. Among those, 10,834 cases were among fully vaccinated (i.e. breakthrough cases) and 71,932 cases among the unvaccinated. While this isn’t all of the breakthrough cases, this gives an even closer estimate to the “true” rate of breakthrough cases due to Delta. But even this is among patients who went to the hospital. We still don’t know the asymptomatic and/or mild breakthrough rate.


Bottom Line:

We just don’t know how many breakthrough cases there are in the United States. With Delta or with any other variant. And we may never know. Just know that being vaccinated doesn’t mean you’re immune. It means you have another fantastic layer of protection. Given that we’re now facing exponential spread in the United States, it’s time to add more layers of protection. Like masking up inside.

Love, YLE