LaxPower Back-Up Stick

I am only trying to project what the media poll will be tomorrow.

This should make the OSU fans feel better. LaxBytes has OSU with the highest NCAA Tournament Selection probability.

RNK TEAMNAME TOURN SEL PROB
1 Ohio State 62.61
2 Yale 60.37
3 Denver 55.43
4 Loyola 54.67
5 Penn State 53.18
6 Maryland 53.05
7 Penn 51.89
8 Duke 51.34
9 Virginia 48.14
10 Towson 47.35
11 Notre Dame 46.62
12 Syracuse 45.15
13 Hobart 39.36
14 Villanova 38.78
15 Cornell 38.61
16 Lehigh 37.91
17 Army 37.27
18 Johns Hopkins 35.32
19 UMass 35.01
20 Richmond 29.56

D1 MEN: Beating Duke was obviously good for Syracuse... as well as a team that beat Syracuse and is now the new #1, Virginia.

DU-fan wrote: ↑Sun Mar 24, 2019 4:22 pm What a great comeback by Syracuse....

My updated projection:

Rank Team Result
1. Penn State (7 - 1) | Beat CSU
2. Yale (5 - 1) | Beat Princeton
3. Maryland (8 - 1) | Beat UNC
4. Duke (8 - 2) | Lost to SU OT
5. Ohio State (7 - 0) | Beat ND
6. Loyola (6 - 2) | Beat Bucknell
7. Virginia (6 - 2) | Beat JHU
8. Syracuse (5 - 2) | Beat Duke OT
9. Denver (5 - 2) | Beat Towson
10. Cornell (5 - 3) | Lost to Penn
11. Notre Dame (4 - 3) | Lost to OSU
12. High Point (7 - 2) | Lost to Jacksonville
13. Lehigh (6 - 3) | Beat Navy
14. Towson (5 - 3) | Lost to Denver
15. Penn (4 - 3) | Beat Cornell
16. Army (7 - 2) | Beat Colgate
17. UMass (6 - 3) | Beat Brown
18. Georgetown (7 - 2) | Lost to Marquette
19. Hobart (7 - 1) | Beat Sacred Heart
20. Johns Hopkins (4 - 4) | Lost to UVA
21. Richmond (5 - 3) | Beat Bellarmine
22. North Carolina (6 - 3) | Lost to MD
23. Delaware (7 - 2) | Beat Michigan
24. Rutgers (4 - 4) | Beat Hofstra
25. Boston University (7 - 3) | Beat Lafyette, Lost to Harvard
26. Air Force (6-2) | Beat Furman
27. UAlbany (3 - 4) | Beat Binghamton
28. Princeton (2 - 5) | Lost to Yale

DU-fan certainly had his finger on the pulse of the media voters this week with 8 out of ten in the top ten projected exactly and only a Duke and Ohio State flip flop keeping him from 100%. Furthermore he had the entire top 17 within two spots of their actual positions. Makes one wonder how his NCAA b-ball bracket is doing (if he even has one, perhaps too busy divining D1 lacrosse to go after the really big money).

calourie wrote: ↑Mon Mar 25, 2019 10:33 am DU-fan certainly had his finger on the pulse of the media voters this week with 8 out of ten in the top ten projected exactly and only a Duke and Ohio State flip flop keeping him from 100%. Furthermore he had the entire top 17 within two spots of their actual positions. Makes one wonder how his NCAA b-ball bracket is doing (if he even has one, perhaps too busy divining D1 lacrosse to go after the really big money).

Too funny:lol: I have 1 NCAA bracket in second place. But, I spent a lot more time watching lacrosse than basketball this weekend

The USILA coaches Poll is out:
https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/lacrosse- ... la-coaches
PSU stays on top, despite the fact that their support vector, Cornell, dropped down to 10. Yale is very close on their tail though.
With the Terps playing PSU this Sunday in College Park, I don't mind seeing PSU at #1. Yale has a game with Air Force tomorrow, and then travels to play #13 Penn on Saturday. OSU gets Rutgers in Columbus on Saturday. Duke has their big rivalry game with UNC on Saturday. Loyola plays Colgate on Saturday. Virginia has a double-header weekend with Richmond on Friday and Utah on Sunday. Syracuse, bubbling up, goes out to Southbend to play #12 Notre Dame. Denver plays at Princeton Tomorrow, and then has a home league match-up with Georgetown on Saturday.

1 Penn State 343 (8) 7-1 1
2 Yale 341 (8) 5-1 3
3 Maryland 329 (2) 8-1 4
4 Ohio State 303 7-0 5
5 Duke 279 8-2 2
6 Loyola Maryland 254 6-2 6
7 Virginia 253 6-2 9
8 Syracuse 224 5-2 12
9 Denver 222 5-2 13
10 Towson 186 5-3 7
10 Cornell 186 5-3 8
12 Notre Dame 161 4-3 11
13 Penn 138 4-3 19
14 Lehigh 104 6-3 17
15 High Point 99 7-2 10
16 Massachusetts 94 6-3 20
17 Army West Point 92 7-2 18
18 Johns Hopkins 44 4-4 15
19 Georgetown 33 7-2 14
20 Hobart 26 7-1 NR

Others receiving votes: Rutgers, Richmond, Hobart, Villanova, and Boston University

PSU at #1 is based more on "what's your worst loss?" than "what's your best win(s)?" which makes little sense and "How much did you beat that mediocre team by?" which makes even less sense.

admin wrote: ↑Mon Mar 25, 2019 1:26 pm PSU at #1 is based more on "what's your worst loss?" than "what's your best win(s)?" which makes little sense and "How much did you beat that mediocre team by?" which makes even less sense.

I think a lot of it is related to "pecking order" also. PSU was #1 last week...

Penn State was #1 the two previous weeks. A team, generally, only loses the #1 spot if they lose the game the preceding week.

admin wrote: ↑Mon Mar 25, 2019 1:26 pm PSU at #1 is based more on "what's your worst loss?" than "what's your best win(s)?" which makes little sense and "How much did you beat that mediocre team by?" which makes even less sense.

Not to mention that the team they lost to is directly behind them. Does head to head mean nothing to pollsters?

Have the people who decide these polls actually been watching the games? As much as I am loathe to say it, Maryland is the best team in the country. A 1-goal loss on the road at Notre Dame's indoor facility is the only blemish on an otherwise spotless record. They took some heat for the very narrow victory over Penn but that doesn't look half bad now. Completely dismantled Navy, Albany, Villanova, and North Carolina. Getting it from all phases—offense, defense, faceoffs, goaltending. Believe me it makes me nauseous just saying it but as someone who tries (most of the time) to be an unbiased observer, Maryland looks like the best, most complete, most balanced team so far. Penn State, Yale, and Ohio State would be my 2, 3, and 4. After that I'd have Virginia, Loyola, Duke, and Syracuse in a cluster, a big gap, and then everyone else.

If Penn State beats Maryland at Maryland this coming weekend, they will deserve to be #1. Maybe the same could be said of the Terps if they win, but if Yale beats Penn... It's a good thing that there's a tournament at the end of the season; I think of these mid-season rankings as general approximations, not precise distinctions between very good teams.

Hawkeye wrote: ↑Mon Mar 25, 2019 3:19 pm

admin wrote: ↑Mon Mar 25, 2019 1:26 pm PSU at #1 is based more on "what's your worst loss?" than "what's your best win(s)?" which makes little sense and "How much did you beat that mediocre team by?" which makes even less sense.

Not to mention that the team they lost to is directly behind them. Does head to head mean nothing to pollsters?

I do think recent head to head is taken into account, but over time it becomes less important. Plus, with all the permutations of Team A beat Team B, but Team A lost to Team C, and Team B beat Team C, it is impossible to get them all accounted for. Polls tend to be based on what have you done lately. Losing at the beginning of year is better than losing in the current week, etc.

And I think Maryland would be favored to beat both PSU and Yale.

I guess we spoke to soon about Princeton, as they rose up today and knocked of Denver.

This will probably knock Denver from the top 10, although Denver gets a chance for redemption versus Georgetown this weekend.

D1 MEN: With this loss, Denver dropped from 12 to 19 while Princeton jumped from... 43 to 22. Lest we forget, before this game, P'ton had wins over #33 Navy and #67 Monmouth. This was a big W for Princeton but it's one win.

http://fanlax.com/fanlax/2019/03/26/201 ... gs-mar-26/

HopFan16 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 25, 2019 3:22 pm Have the people who decide these polls actually been watching the games? As much as I am loathe to say it, Maryland is the best team in the country. A 1-goal loss on the road at Notre Dame's indoor facility is the only blemish on an otherwise spotless record. They took some heat for the very narrow victory over Penn but that doesn't look half bad now. Completely dismantled Navy, Albany, Villanova, and North Carolina. Getting it from all phases—offense, defense, faceoffs, goaltending. Believe me it makes me nauseous just saying it but as someone who tries (most of the time) to be an unbiased observer, Maryland looks like the best, most complete, most balanced team so far. Penn State, Yale, and Ohio State would be my 2, 3, and 4. After that I'd have Virginia, Loyola, Duke, and Syracuse in a cluster, a big gap, and then everyone else.

Maryland has probably been the most consistently excellent program over last 6 to 7 years. Really consistent. Tillman has run a model program really.

HopFan16 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 25, 2019 3:22 pmHave the people who decide these polls actually been watching the games?...

We can't speak for the others, especially since most are making subjective, personal assessments, but our Computer Ranking isn't a predictor. i.e. Our Ranking isn't saying who (future) will be the best. It says who (past) was the best. Based on Ws (and Ls), Maryland is relatively unproven.

admin wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2019 8:14 am Based on Ws (and Ls), Maryland is relatively unproven.

Poster board material for the locker room! Fuel for the fire!!!

What's a little odd is that they only have a couple quality games left this season (if all the teams stay at the same trajectory). And I guess the B1G Tourney. We have them with the #20 SOS. Ironically, the top teams with a similarly low SOS is... PSU. Big game on Sunday. As an aside, OSU's SOS is #36.

03/31 vs Penn State
04/06 vs Michigan
04/14 @ Rutgers
04/20 @ Ohio State
04/27 vs Johns Hopkins

Typical Lax Dad wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2019 11:22 pm Maryland has probably been the most consistently excellent program over last 6 to 7 years. Really consistent. Tillman has run a model program really.

as much as it pains me to admit - this is true. It would be hard to argue against the Terps and Duke as the current models for long-term excellence. Although I will give the edge to Duke because they have more recent NC's. But it is Duke, UMD and then a big drop to a lot of other people.....

As we are getting closer to when it matters, what is a good site for D1 RPI?