LaxPower Back-Up Stick

Twitter post of the day

"It's like the stock market has finally realized Donald Trump is president."

No socialism here.

OCanada wrote: ↑Tue Mar 10, 2020 9:55 am The fuel is there. All that is needed is a match to create a recession more severe than 2007/2008. The earlier recession was basically a failure of the financial system. This one will, if the match arrives, be much broader based. The Fed has little firepower left. Debt has kept the economy afloat. Both issuers and investors in bonds are at high risk. Corporations hoarded cash or bought back stock from the cash available from a tax cut that never provided much of anything it promised but did provide fiscal stimulus to the economy at the cost of driving debt over $23 billion. Many people are worse off now than previously. The trade war has been a failure. Many jobs have been paying service industry jobs that provide limited room if any for savings or health insurance. 44% of Americans are barely earning enough to live. The Fed repeatedly has warned about leveraged borrowing. What’s going on is hitting everyone with a business.

The $8 billion allotted to the coronavirus so far "is an insult," Claudia Sahm, former top economist for the Fed's Board of Governors. "It has to be hundreds of billions of dollars, and it has to be now."

Our response has been pathetic. In Italy the demand for treatment is 200% of available beds. Treatment is pushing aside treatment for other disease. People over 65 are not getting treatment. Italy is not a third world country and had a pretty good healthcare system. In Lombardy a very developed area:

“Patients above 65 or younger with comorbidities are not even assessed by ITU, I am not saying not tubed, I’m saying not assessed and no ITU staff attends when they arrest. Staff are working as much as they can but they are starting to get sick and are emotionally overwhelmed.” Jason Von Schorr in Italy.

He also repoets “ We’ve stopped all routine, all ORs have been converted to ITUs and they are now diverting or not treating all other emergencies like trauma or strokes. There are hundreds of pts with severe resp failure and many of them do not have access to anything above a reservoir mask.

Failure to adequately address this will lead to premature deaths not only from the virus but possibly bother causes from diverted resources

This what has the US healthcare system scared. US is in better position, we have more beds per capita (I believe), but not near enough.

I'm trying to envision how US businesses are going to survive the next 6 months.

Trump and Congress are going to have to come up with something bigger than post 08 crash.

Good news, is the world is DESPERATE to find a place to hide their money, so borrowing won't be a problem. Paying it back will be, though.

I'm trying to conjure how the Federal government is going to get this money out to businesses. Best I can come up with is what Italy is trying to do....give a mortgage/rent holiday to everyone carrying a bank note. Back up the banks with Federal Money, and allow borrowers to skip payments.

Outside of that? I have no earthly idea how indie restaurants are going to make it through a few months with a 50-75% drop in sales.

And that's just one sector. Hotels? Theme parks? Basically any small/medium sized city depending on tourism?


Buckle up, folks.

Fed spoke to corporate leverage thst is at all time high. Retail debt is at an all time high. Interest rates are at an all time low. The Trump economy was funded by huge fiscal stimulus and debt. The question when would it implode or be pushed over the edge.

This is a black swan event. If you have t read the book it’s an interesting read. It could easily be called the black swan flu. That so many were dismissive of all these kinds of developments reminds of nothing so much as the dismissive attitude about the growing housing bubble of the early 2000s the government encouraged then as now

CU88 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 07, 2020 6:49 am

6ftstick wrote: ↑Fri Mar 06, 2020 3:32 pm

CU88 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 06, 2020 3:21 pm

6ftstick wrote: ↑Fri Mar 06, 2020 1:39 pm 273,000 new jobs in February

ALREADY ADDED MORE JOBS in 2020 then were predicted for the year.

December and January job numbers adjusted upward 85,000 jobs.

Gotta fire this basted. Make it stop

So how many more jobs do you predict for the next three quarters?

What're you hoping for-0

Its what the American people will take into consideration—democrats want them hurt—trump wants them doing well.

Wow, so nothing of substance to offer?

Theres my answer.

Job creation sucks mostly. Continuing to go down and for many of those jobs that are created are service industry jobs that prevent savings and health insurance if you want to have anything like a life.

It would be far more efficient to send money to individuals.

6ftstick wrote: ↑Wed Mar 11, 2020 8:50 am

CU88 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 07, 2020 6:49 am

6ftstick wrote: ↑Fri Mar 06, 2020 3:32 pm

CU88 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 06, 2020 3:21 pm

6ftstick wrote: ↑Fri Mar 06, 2020 1:39 pm 273,000 new jobs in February

ALREADY ADDED MORE JOBS in 2020 then were predicted for the year.

December and January job numbers adjusted upward 85,000 jobs.

Gotta fire this basted. Make it stop

So how many more jobs do you predict for the next three quarters?

What're you hoping for-0

Its what the American people will take into consideration—democrats want them hurt—trump wants them doing well.

Wow, so nothing of substance to offer?

Theres my answer.

After spending 8 years rooting for Obama to fail, you're "horrified" that people who don't like Trump are rooting for him to fail.

OCanada wrote: ↑Wed Mar 11, 2020 9:24 am Job creation sucks mostly. Continuing to Gi down and foo many of those jobs that are created are see I do dimustry jobs that prevent savings and health insurance if you want to have anything like a life.

It would be far more efficient to send money to individuals.

Would you get a new job, sell a house, buy a house....or make any other major financial decision or purchase in the coming months?

Trump and Congress better do something big, and fast. Robbing Medicare and SS ain't gonna cut it.

Good thing we blew Trillions of dollars on nothing over the past 3 years. Oh, and those tax cuts were just brilliant....good thing we don't have a way to pay back the stimulus package that they are prepping.

The FIRST thing Trump should do is immediately end all of the recently imposed Tariffs. At the very least all non-China tariffs. He gets to save face by blaming it on the virus....

You had the tariffs exactly right including China. Trump is too invested in his ill advised tariff war is my guess, to stop it. It would accelerate global and domestic growth. and serve to reduce what is a tax on the American people as well as the absurd subsidies.

There are 330? Million Americans. What would it cost to send 8,000 per family. Deficit has already risen to 23 trillion thanks to the tac cut. You can’t cut your way to prosperity.

a fan wrote: ↑Wed Mar 11, 2020 12:34 pm

OCanada wrote: ↑Wed Mar 11, 2020 9:24 am Job creation sucks mostly. Continuing to Gi down and foo many of those jobs that are created are see I do dimustry jobs that prevent savings and health insurance if you want to have anything like a life.

It would be far more efficient to send money to individuals.

The FIRST thing Trump should do is immediately end all of the recently imposed Tariffs. At the very least all non-China tariffs. He gets to save face by blaming it on the virus....

Maybe that is what China is hoping.....did they release COVID19 virus? possibly?

You're kidding. Right?

OCanada wrote: ↑Wed Mar 11, 2020 12:42 pm You had the tariffs exactly right including China.

Easiest call ever. I take zero pride is seeing Trump's nonsense "Trade War" for what it was.

OCanada wrote: ↑Wed Mar 11, 2020 12:42 pm You had the tariffs exactly right including China. Trump is too invested in his ill advised tariff war is my guess, to stop it. It would accelerate global and domestic growth. and serve to reduce what is a tax on the American people as well as the absurd subsidies.

There are 330? Million Americans. What would it cost to send 8,000 per family. Deficit has already risen to 23 trillion thanks to the tac cut. You can’t cut your way to prosperity.

Trump and FoxNation has their audience convinced that the Chinese are paying the tariffs, not consumers. Likewise that the tariffs are actually "paying for the Wall"...Trump keeps his promises. Had that conversation with my brother-in-law last night.

Really hard to tell them that was all horse manure now.

Of course, they'll believe anything he says, so maybe...

Maybe they won’t notice Trump’s Bear Market.

The latest take is that the Markets are going to test the 2018 Christmas Eve lows before any kind of a recovery.

The next two quarters are going to be a bloodbath for many companies especially in those sectors where demand has essentially evaporated.

OCanada wrote: ↑Wed Mar 11, 2020 7:23 am Fed spoke to corporate leverage thst is at all time high. Retail debt is at an all time high. Interest rates are at an all time low. The Trump economy was funded by huge fiscal stimulus and debt. The question when would it implode or be pushed over the edge.

This is a black swan event. If you have t read the book it’s an interesting read. It could easily be called the black swan flu. That so many were dismissive of all these kinds of developments reminds of nothing so much as the dismissive attitude about the growing housing bubble of the early 2000s the government encouraged then as now

The problem with this argument is that a black sean isn’t really observed until after the event and we are in the eye of the storm but point taken. (I write this bc everyone who did read the book throws out the term for every small exogenous event not fully grasping that the metaphor refers to the fact that no one believe black swans existed for centuries until one was observed and yet these readers all want to declare the next one like they are suddenly mountain men).

Data-point/micro note that strikes me as a very big deal is Boeing deciding to draw down all $14Bn of its working capital and liquidity lines. Banks, unfortunately, extend these mostly indrawn lines (which pay tiny commitment fees while tying up capital for years) when times are better but don’t want to be the creditor you’re the borrower when the are in need of getting drawn. Trust me, I worked for a large German bank and recall some chats with my friend in house counsel who was tasked by Frankfurt with trying to figure out how to not fund if Ford came calling (which they did, and prudently IMO). Upshot was no chance bc the lines were bilaterally negotiated and written by Ford in the late 90s when they were near Aaa rated. Consequently when companies look to get liquids using cheap bank money then the banks stop extending credit and the wheels of money flow slow down. I expect many banks to be looking at all their unitilized commitments and start forward planning as if they were all drawn which will make any new loan that much tougher to get. We will see though, but this brings back some fun memories.

Lesson to individuals is get liquid, de-lever a bit and be ready. There will be opportunities at some point, not sure when, but those with cash will win.

Personally, I think our president is partly to blame for this. People don’t trust information anymore and he’s responsible for a chunk of that which leads to more unknown which leads to more shoot first and ask questions later. Read this Michael Lewis book maybe a year ago or bit less called the Fifth Risk and it’s what pushed me from “I know all about this loser scumbag and he’s annoying and wish he didn’t represent my country” to “oh turd this guy may be single handedly responsible for destroying our position as Fiat and reserve currency for the world with his purely political and anthitethical to the ethos of our country behavior”.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Fifth_Risk

MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 11, 2020 3:11 pm

OCanada wrote: ↑Wed Mar 11, 2020 12:42 pm You had the tariffs exactly right including China. Trump is too invested in his ill advised tariff war is my guess, to stop it. It would accelerate global and domestic growth. and serve to reduce what is a tax on the American people as well as the absurd subsidies.

There are 330? Million Americans. What would it cost to send 8,000 per family. Deficit has already risen to 23 trillion thanks to the tac cut. You can’t cut your way to prosperity.

Trump and FoxNation has their audience convinced that the Chinese are paying the tariffs, not consumers. Likewise that the tariffs are actually "paying for the Wall"...Trump keeps his promises. Had that conversation with my brother-in-law last night.

Really hard to tell them that was all horse manure now.

Of course, they'll believe anything he says, so maybe...

Was watching the axios show on HBO the other day w DJT Jr and not surprising but still interesting that when asked everyone in the room said they were supportive of trump, none supported the Republican Party. (And then of course these sh**sticks will throw out RHINO at anyone and everyone. I swear there are days I want to head up to Savona, NY and punch some of my cousins in the face, tell them to stop being whiny awful cry baby’s, man up and shut the F up, they are so full of s**t and not one tenth as tough as they think they are just because they have a relatively tough lot in life-and it’s relative in the grand scheme of humanity)

What we need is honesty and a real plan of action. Cut Trump and Pence out and just give us Fauci on the Health issues and Powell on the Economy.

4:18 p.m.
Dow reaches bear-market territory on a nearly 1,500-point skid, ending record 11-year stock rally
Wall Street went into a deep slump Wednesday, falling so far and so fast that the Dow Jones industrial average officially tipped into a bear market, ending a record 11-year stock rally.

The bear market reflects a 20 percent fall from record highs, which the Dow hit less than a month ago, and came as the coronavirus officially became a pandemic.

The World Health Organization’s declaration Wednesday signaled that health experts believe efforts should shift from trying to contain the virus to mitigation.

The Dow — already deep in the red for the day — plunged further, tumbling almost to the 1,500-points-down mark, after the WHO announcement.

“Bear markets are ugly,” said Michael Farr, president of Farr, Miller and Washington. “They’re painful and they all last too long. Sadly, it seems that a new one is just getting started.”

All 11 S&P stock market sectors turned negative on Wednesday. Real estate, utilities and energy — often safe havens for nervous investors — were faring the worst. The health sector was the least affected by the sell-off. UnitedHealth Group was the lone component of the Dow‘s 30 blue chips to show a gain. Boeing was getting raked, down more than 10 percent.

I know Michael Farr, good guy. Really more of a retail guy than institutional, but still solid guy to work with.

Trump was just on CNBC w Bank CEOs (have met Kelly king total doughnut) and closed out on a question w CNN, Fake News. What the f**k.