D1 Men Rankings

[CU77]

My understanding is that while Lax Bytes starts with the goal differential, it normalizes it in two sensible ways:
- It adjusts for Home Field Advantage.
- It collapses run-away scores so a blow-out and a comfortable margin of victory have similar impact.

Correct. Score differentials greater than 10 are set to 10. Home-field advantage usually works out to be close to 1 goal per game by the end of the season.

[admin]

Krach: I stand corrected. There's a relationship but it's different. "While RPI is winning percentage plus strength of schedule, KRACH is winning ratio times strength of schedule."

Bytes: I stand corrected. I was conflating the Bytes Ratings and the Tourney predictor. Or, more accurately, the Power ratings are composed of numerous criteria and RPI is just one of them. "In addition, predictions are made for the selection of teams to the men and women's NCAA championship tournament for Divisions I, II, and III, which is predicated on strength of schedule, ratings percentage index, quality wins, win-loss records, and polls."

[admin]

... It adjusts for Home Field Advantage....

A bit off-topic but... Once listened to a podcast about home field advantage (I think it was Freakonomics) and... It's real and is based all but solely on the home field referees.

[CU77]

Krach: I stand corrected. There's a relationship but it's different. "While RPI is winning percentage plus strength of schedule, KRACH is winning ratio times strength of schedule."

Bytes: I stand corrected. I was conflating the Bytes Ratings and the Tourney predictor. Or, more accurately, the Power ratings are composed of numerous criteria and RPI is just one of them. "In addition, predictions are made for the selection of teams to the men and women's NCAA championship tournament for Divisions I, II, and III, which is predicated on strength of schedule, ratings percentage index, quality wins, win-loss records, and polls."

The Bytes rating I was referring to was the one originated by laf, originally called the power rating (hence "laxpower"), and now called the MOV rating ("margin of victory"):
http://www.laxbytes.com/2019/binmenstats/moving01.php

The one now called "rating" is indeed a combo of RPI, SOS, and W-L record, which are the ingredients in RPI in the first place. I admit that I don't see the point of this.
http://www.laxbytes.com/2019/binmenstats/rating01.php

[admin]

The MOV rating base ratings on the scores of games, the strength of the opponent (power ratings)(... which I believe is the same as the "rating"), and the home field advantage.

I think part of my difficulty with some ratings, and i think MOV/Rating may be one of them, is that there are numerous ingredients and some of those ingredients (e.g. the RPI SOS) are not to my taste so it puts me in a strange position. As the actual rating system is a black box, there may be negligible amounts of RPI SOS or substantially more but we don't know. I just read the ingredients and think, I don't like Cinnamon or whatever and... We never know how much cinnamon is actually present. Similar with relation to the Expert Polls ingredient. It's a computer Ranking yet Petro's vote on who are the D1 Top Ten is part of the formula? But again, this ingredient may be negligible or maybe not. We don't know. i have to say, I'll run the Computer Rating System and see Georgetown way too high and... It's tempting just to move them. But, for obvious reasons, you can't. The formula has to drive the ranking. With "black box" systems, I can't help but be a cynic. and, as a consequence, though possibly 100% unjustified, be bothered.

[CU77]

This is how laf's MOV rating (formerly known as the power rating at laxpower) is computed. Assume each team has a rating, a number between 0 and 100, which is to be determined, and that there is a home-field advantage (the same for each team, call it H), also to be determined. Suppose that team B (with rating RB) plays at team A (with rating RA), and that A wins by 4 goals. Write this down: (RA - H - RB - 4)^2. Sum a similar expression over all games played. Adjust all the ratings, and H, to minimize this sum (this is called a "least squares fit"). Since each term in the sum only depends on the difference of two ratings, we can shift them all by the same amount. Choose this shift so that the highest rated team has a rating of 99.90 (but don't ask me why laf chose this number instead of 100). That's it.

The difference between two teams' ratings is then the expected goal difference if they were to play on a neutral field. Add H to the rating of the home team if the game is at that team.

Patrick McEwen at IL is using this system for high schools (as laf used to do at laxpower). Here is a recent article about it (which sadly does not credit laf for coming up with the formula):
https://www.insidelacrosse.com/article/ ... mula/53970

[DU-fan]

Add another 6-7 teams to D1 and maybe pushing the tournament out to 20 becomes a reasonable ask.

The structure of 24 is much cleaner than 20. Why I would not advocate for expansion beyond what is necessary to meet the AQ/At-large balance requirements until 24 is reasonable.

8 hosts. 8 pods of three.

Round 1:
Thursday/Friday at host sites (top 8 seeds). Winner plays host on Saturday/Sunday
(Just like now, geography and "integrity of the bracket" both play a factor in deciding who goes where)

Round 2 - round of 16
Saturday/Sunday at host sites (top 8 seeds)

Quarterfinals and championship weekend same as now.

I like this structure. Hopefully, it happens some day in the not to distant future.

[PicLax]

I like the construct and simplicity of the 24 teams (8 pods of 3), but 24 teams is too many given the current number of DI programs. Would equate to 1/3 of the teams making the tournament. Compare to basketball where less than 1/5 of teams make the tournament. Need to keep tournament numbers where they are until number of DI programs grow in order to keep regular season relevant and to ensure only the Most deserving teams make the tournament. How those teams are determined or chosen a different topic, but don’t water down the meaning of making the tournament by expanding the current percentage of schools represented.

[DU-fan]

More changes in the rankings this week. My thoughts based on Saturday.

1 Penn State (7 - 1) / Beat CSU
2 Duke (8 - 1) / @SU 3/24
3 Yale (5 - 1) / Beat Princeton
4 Maryland (8 - 1) / Beat UNC
5 Ohio State (7 - 0) / Beat ND
6 Loyola (6 - 2) / Beat Bucknell
7 Virginia (6 - 2) / Beat JHU
8 Denver (5 - 2) / Beat Towson
9 Cornell (5 - 3) / Lost to Penn
10 High Point (7 - 2) / Lost to Jacksonville
11 Notre Dame (4 - 3) / Lost to OSU
12 Penn (4 - 3) / Beat Cornell
13 Towson (5 - 3) / Lost to Denver
14 Syracuse (4 - 2) / vs. Duke 3/24
15 Lehigh (6 - 3) / Beat Navy
16 Army (7 - 2) / Beat Colgate
17 UMass (6 - 3) / Beat Brown
18 Johns Hopkins (4 - 4) / Lost to UVA
19 Richmond (5 - 3) / Beat Bellarmine
20 Georgetown (7 - 2) / Lost to Marquette
21 Hobart (7 - 1) / Beat Sacred Heart
22 North Carolina (6 - 3) / Lost to MD
23 Delaware (7 - 2) / Beat Michigan
24 Rutgers (4 - 4) / Beat Hofstra
25 Boston University (7 - 3) / Beat Lafyette, Lost to Harvard
26 Air Force (6-2) / Beat Furman
27 UAlbany (3 - 4) / Beat Binghamton
28 Princeton (2 - 5) / Lost to Yale

[10stone5]

Course, the question with Penn State.
Why was Grant Ament held out ?
To have him ready for Maryland ?

[calourie]

More changes in the rankings this week. My thoughts based on Saturday.

1 Penn State (7 - 1) / Beat CSU
2 Duke (8 - 1) / @SU 3/24
3 Yale (5 - 1) / Beat Princeton
4 Maryland (8 - 1) / Beat UNC
5 Ohio State (7 - 0) / Beat ND
6 Loyola (6 - 2) / Beat Bucknell
7 Virginia (6 - 2) / Beat JHU
8 Denver (5 - 2) / Beat Towson
9 Cornell (5 - 3) / Lost to Penn
10 High Point (7 - 2) / Lost to Jacksonville
11 Notre Dame (4 - 3) / Lost to OSU
12 Penn (4 - 3) / Beat Cornell
13 Towson (5 - 3) / Lost to Denver
14 Syracuse (4 - 2) / vs. Duke 3/24
15 Lehigh (6 - 3) / Beat Navy
16 Army (7 - 2) / Beat Colgate
17 UMass (6 - 3) / Beat Brown
18 Johns Hopkins (4 - 4) / Lost to UVA
19 Richmond (5 - 3) / Beat Bellarmine
20 Georgetown (7 - 2) / Lost to Marquette
21 Hobart (7 - 1) / Beat Sacred Heart
22 North Carolina (6 - 3) / Lost to MD
23 Delaware (7 - 2) / Beat Michigan
24 Rutgers (4 - 4) / Beat Hofstra
25 Boston University (7 - 3) / Beat Lafyette, Lost to Harvard
26 Air Force (6-2) / Beat Furman
27 UAlbany (3 - 4) / Beat Binghamton
28 Princeton (2 - 5) / Lost to Yale

I'm mostly okay with DU's top 17 with the following caveats. Duke-Syracuse tomorrow will obviously have some influence on Monday's voting. I wouldn't think a loss by Duke would drop them lower than 5, but a win by Cuse might get them as high as 6. Otherwise the two are likely to stay near where DU has them. I project High Point to drop at least 5 spots. Lehigh will stay ahead of Penn as will Syracuse and Army. Beyond 17 this swami sees Georgetown 18, Hobart 19, Hopkins 20, Richmond 21, Delaware 22, Rutgers 23, UNC 24, BU 25, AFA 26

[ABV 8.3%]

I like the construct and simplicity of the 24 teams (8 pods of 3), but 24 teams is too many given the current number of DI programs. Would equate to 1/3 of the teams making the tournament. Compare to basketball where less than 1/5 of teams make the tournament. Need to keep tournament numbers where they are until number of DI programs grow in order to keep regular season relevant and to ensure only the Most deserving teams make the tournament. How those teams are determined or chosen a different topic, but don’t water down the meaning of making the tournament by expanding the current percentage of schools represented.

There is nothing, and I mean nothing, watered down about expanding to 24 teams. Especially if you eliminate the conference/league championships, (for time/playoffs ) making the regular season very, very meaningful.

Comparing lacrosse to other NCAA sports is folly. And honestly, who cares what other sports do.

Football invites FOUR teams for it's championship. That's 3% of all teams playing football (and only need 11 players, yet 80 plus scholarships )

Basketball and hockey play twice as many games, making selection stats more meaningful. The other glaring aspect is that EVERY conference/league team in basketball gets invited to it's own AQ. (I think?) Basketball has a very long season. And, lets not forget that the NCAA owns the NIT tournament, so another 32 teams get post season play.

Hockey has a similar number of teams,compared to lacrosse (60 vs 71 ) but has 6 AQ's as compared to 9 for lacrosse. While I think Hockey should go to 24 teams, the system is much better than lacrosse in terms of playoff teams and invites. Case in point, UMass lost the hockey east championship to Northeastern. Both got invites. This does NOT happen in lacrosse. The Patriot and CAA rarely get two teams in, primarily because of the junk the NCAA pulls when it comes to the play in game, AQ's equal to at larges. The other aspect that makes hockey better is the fluctuation of leagues getting bids based on merit, versus history. (ACC is essentially a bunch of lacrosse independents, yet get many at large bids. This doesn't happen in hockey. Last year, B1G got 4 invites. This year 2. )

[CU77]

And honestly, who cares what other sports do.

The NCAA cares. And they have the only opinion that matters.

[ABV 8.3%]

And honestly, who cares what other sports do.

The NCAA cares. And they have the only opinion that matters.

understand the need to have central rules and structure........but IN a blink of an eye, especially when it comes to the colleges playing lacrosse, ( lots of top academic and endowments) the NCAA could become irrelevant. Indicative of a society that is weak minded, lazy and beholden to an incumbency of ineptitude that is the NCAA. Sanctions for autographs? But bribery, sexual assault rug sweeping, fake classes and sneaker scandals abound with little to no sanctions.

Sorry, but the MCLA functions just fine without this albatros of blackmailers, hypocrites and money grabbers. Rugby, one of the best sports, has nothing to do with the NCAA.
Like folks say about US Lax, who died and made NCAA god? Colleges have ALL the power. To lazy to realize it.

[DU-fan]

What a great comeback by Syracuse....

My updated projection:

Rank Team Result
1. Penn State (7 - 1) | Beat CSU
2. Yale (5 - 1) | Beat Princeton
3. Maryland (8 - 1) | Beat UNC
4. Duke (8 - 2) | Lost to SU OT
5. Ohio State (7 - 0) | Beat ND
6. Loyola (6 - 2) | Beat Bucknell
7. Virginia (6 - 2) | Beat JHU
8. Syracuse (5 - 2) | Beat Duke OT
9. Denver (5 - 2) | Beat Towson
10. Cornell (5 - 3) | Lost to Penn
11. Notre Dame (4 - 3) | Lost to OSU
12. High Point (7 - 2) | Lost to Jacksonville
13. Lehigh (6 - 3) | Beat Navy
14. Towson (5 - 3) | Lost to Denver
15. Penn (4 - 3) | Beat Cornell
16. Army (7 - 2) | Beat Colgate
17. UMass (6 - 3) | Beat Brown
18. Georgetown (7 - 2) | Lost to Marquette
19. Hobart (7 - 1) | Beat Sacred Heart
20. Johns Hopkins (4 - 4) | Lost to UVA
21. Richmond (5 - 3) | Beat Bellarmine
22. North Carolina (6 - 3) | Lost to MD
23. Delaware (7 - 2) | Beat Michigan
24. Rutgers (4 - 4) | Beat Hofstra
25. Boston University (7 - 3) | Beat Lafyette, Lost to Harvard
26. Air Force (6-2) | Beat Furman
27. UAlbany (3 - 4) | Beat Binghamton
28. Princeton (2 - 5) | Lost to Yale

[Cooter]

Looks pretty good.
I think I would have to give serious consideration to putting OSU at #1. The knock was they hadn't played anyone good, but they beat Notre Dame on the road this past weekend. Further, UMass (6-3) keeps looking more and more like a quality win.

I think maybe Notre Dame should be in front of Cornell, due to their top 5 win over Maryland.

What is the point of ranking 2-5 Princeton at #28? Why not Marquette at 5-3 with a win over Georgetown at #28. Or why not just not bother with #28?

[runrussellrun]

very bizarre that ohio state isn't getting the support to be ranked number one. does the lacrosse world do this to prove some kind of weird point?

[DU-fan]

What is the point of ranking 2-5 Princeton at #28? Why not Marquette at 5-3 with a win over Georgetown at #28. Or why not just not bother with #28?

Completely agree that they don't belong on the list anymore.

Ohio State will prove their ranking as they head into B1G team play. They will remove the doubt about not playing tough teams.
03/30 vs Rutgers
04/07 @ Penn State
04/14 @ Johns Hopkins
04/20 vs Maryland

[Cooter]

What is the point of ranking 2-5 Princeton at #28? Why not Marquette at 5-3 with a win over Georgetown at #28. Or why not just not bother with #28?

Completely agree that they don't belong on the list anymore.

Ohio State will prove their ranking as they head into B1G team play. They will remove the doubt about not playing tough teams.
03/30 vs Rutgers
04/07 @ Penn State
04/14 @ Johns Hopkins
04/20 vs Maryland

How much better are PSU's wins than OSU's?
Yale does have a nice group of wins: top 5 PSU, Cornell, UMass but they also have a loss to Villanova who isn't in your top 20 anymore.
OSU beat Notre Dame, Maryland didn't.

[runrussellrun]

What is the point of ranking 2-5 Princeton at #28? Why not Marquette at 5-3 with a win over Georgetown at #28. Or why not just not bother with #28?

Completely agree that they don't belong on the list anymore.

Ohio State will prove their ranking as they head into B1G team play. They will remove the doubt about not playing tough teams.
03/30 vs Rutgers
04/07 @ Penn State
04/14 @ Johns Hopkins
04/20 vs Maryland

Remove doubt? In what laxmafia world would a team with a 7-0 record not be considered number one? The laundry, not the man. got it