I like it....Army does this every year, they know how the system works. They play to the system...book RU and someone else like Cuse or COrnell for the OOC matchups, then ride into the PL Tourney dialed in.
I wonder if they can get another notch in their belt if they booked a UVA. Terps, Yale, Duke, etc over having an NJIT, VMI, Sienna, Wagner. But I do undersand the the brutality of the PL 9 team log jam, with a locked in Bye week....certainly limits your OOC dates.
NCAA Selection Discussion - Containment Thread
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Re: NCAA Selection Discussion - Containment Thread
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Re: NCAA Selection Discussion - Containment Thread
Marchand only had 4 shots........not a good niteyouthathletics wrote: ↑Thu Apr 20, 2023 9:38 am I like it....Army does this every year, they know how the system works. They play to the system...book RU and someone else like Cuse or COrnell for the OOC matchups, then ride into the PL Tourney dialed in.
I wonder if they can get another notch in their belt if they booked a UVA. Terps, Yale, Duke, etc over having an NJIT, VMI, Sienna, Wagner. But I do undersand the the brutality of the PL 9 team log jam, with a locked in Bye week....certainly limits your OOC dates.
Last edited by runrussellrun on Thu Apr 20, 2023 11:34 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: NCAA Selection Discussion - Containment Thread
If you don't weight the most notable results higher, then if two teams have an 8-2 record against the same 10 opponents, but the losses are to different teams, they have the same RPI SOR. That may be fine, but I think that most people would want the system to distinguish whether a team's best wins are better than another teams' best wins. Or you may not, in which case you'd probably prefer no decay factor.rolldodge wrote: ↑Thu Apr 20, 2023 8:39 amDoesn’t the RPI already determine the ordering and weight of the notable wins/losses? I still don’t understand the need for the decay.laxreference wrote: ↑Thu Apr 20, 2023 8:36 amIt's not based on time. You sort the wins by how notable they are (i.e. best teams beaten are ordered first and given the most weight). So the least notable wins get the least weight and count the least toward your quality wins score.rolldodge wrote: ↑Thu Apr 20, 2023 8:32 amIt seems that the decay parameter is about time, not about who the win or loss was against. If it’s tied to time, why not make that explicit and set a decay based on actually how long ago the win/loss was? One thing a good system should be is easily grokable by althe average fan.laxreference wrote: ↑Thu Apr 20, 2023 8:15 amLet's say Cornell MLAX had beaten Harvard and lost to Yale instead of the reverse. Without steps 1a and 2a, it wouldn't affect their SOR. I agree with BigRed that any system used for Selection purposes should care who the wins and losses were against.rolldodge wrote: ↑Thu Apr 20, 2023 8:07 amI’m not sure about the “weight” aspect to this. Seems arbitrary. Why not just rank each win and loss straight up?laxreference wrote: ↑Thu Apr 20, 2023 7:28 amStrenth-of-Record does look at who you beat and who you lost to.
Step 1: Assign points for each win based on the RPI (or other metric) of the opponent in reverse order (i.e. 75 points for beating #1)
Step 1a: Assign weight to victories depending on how notable they are; each victory is weighted (say 20%) less than the one before it
Step 2: Assign points for each loss based on the RPI (or other metric) of the opponent (i.e. 75 points for losing to #75)
Step 2a: Assign weight to losses depending on how notable they are; each loss is weighted (say 30%) less than the one before it
Step 3: Sum the points from step 1a (total win points / quality wins factor) and subtract the points from step 2a (total loss points / bad loss factor)
This gives you the total Strength-of-Record (if you use RPI as the input, it's called RPI SOR); it is the simplest method, but there are some ways to adjust it if you want to emphasize a team's best wins vs punish teams for their worst losses. Here's the profile for Cornell's season.
Capture.PNG
But with the decay factors, their bad loss score is improved because the Harvard game has become a victory and their most weighted loss is now Yale. Every team's worst loss is weighted the same, so having a better "worst loss" improves their score.
Their quality wins score would be reduced because you replaced their best win with a less impressive victory, but since the Harvard game is being compared against every other team's 5th best victory, it doesn't go down as much. Net effect = higher RPI SOR.
You can say my 20/30 weights are arbitrary, and you wouldn't be wrong. I've always thought a team's best performances should be more important in NCAA selections than their worst losses, which is why I chose to decay wins more slowly. Other people may think different weightings make more sense.
If you want to see how this works in practice with every team in DI MLAX, you can see the calculation for each team here. You can even set your own weights and see how it affects the rankings.
In the same way, you sort the losses by how notable they are (so worst teams who beat you come first).
We are already used to comparing teams' best wins vs other teams' best wins and their worst losses against other teams' worst losses, so I assumed that the average fan would be able to grasp it.
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Re: NCAA Selection Discussion - Containment Thread
If the schedule is that same and the record is the same, but the wins and losses are to different teams, just use the RPI to determine the overall strength of the wins and the overall weakness of the losses. Bringing another arbitrary datapoint into the mix is unnecessary complication IMHO.laxreference wrote: ↑Thu Apr 20, 2023 10:54 amIf you don't weight the most notable results higher, then if two teams have an 8-2 record against the same 10 opponents, but the losses are to different teams, they have the same RPI SOR. That may be fine, but I think that most people would want the system to distinguish whether a team's best wins are better than another teams' best wins. Or you may not, in which case you'd probably prefer no decay factor.rolldodge wrote: ↑Thu Apr 20, 2023 8:39 amDoesn’t the RPI already determine the ordering and weight of the notable wins/losses? I still don’t understand the need for the decay.laxreference wrote: ↑Thu Apr 20, 2023 8:36 amIt's not based on time. You sort the wins by how notable they are (i.e. best teams beaten are ordered first and given the most weight). So the least notable wins get the least weight and count the least toward your quality wins score.rolldodge wrote: ↑Thu Apr 20, 2023 8:32 amIt seems that the decay parameter is about time, not about who the win or loss was against. If it’s tied to time, why not make that explicit and set a decay based on actually how long ago the win/loss was? One thing a good system should be is easily grokable by althe average fan.laxreference wrote: ↑Thu Apr 20, 2023 8:15 amLet's say Cornell MLAX had beaten Harvard and lost to Yale instead of the reverse. Without steps 1a and 2a, it wouldn't affect their SOR. I agree with BigRed that any system used for Selection purposes should care who the wins and losses were against.rolldodge wrote: ↑Thu Apr 20, 2023 8:07 amI’m not sure about the “weight” aspect to this. Seems arbitrary. Why not just rank each win and loss straight up?laxreference wrote: ↑Thu Apr 20, 2023 7:28 amStrenth-of-Record does look at who you beat and who you lost to.
Step 1: Assign points for each win based on the RPI (or other metric) of the opponent in reverse order (i.e. 75 points for beating #1)
Step 1a: Assign weight to victories depending on how notable they are; each victory is weighted (say 20%) less than the one before it
Step 2: Assign points for each loss based on the RPI (or other metric) of the opponent (i.e. 75 points for losing to #75)
Step 2a: Assign weight to losses depending on how notable they are; each loss is weighted (say 30%) less than the one before it
Step 3: Sum the points from step 1a (total win points / quality wins factor) and subtract the points from step 2a (total loss points / bad loss factor)
This gives you the total Strength-of-Record (if you use RPI as the input, it's called RPI SOR); it is the simplest method, but there are some ways to adjust it if you want to emphasize a team's best wins vs punish teams for their worst losses. Here's the profile for Cornell's season.
Capture.PNG
But with the decay factors, their bad loss score is improved because the Harvard game has become a victory and their most weighted loss is now Yale. Every team's worst loss is weighted the same, so having a better "worst loss" improves their score.
Their quality wins score would be reduced because you replaced their best win with a less impressive victory, but since the Harvard game is being compared against every other team's 5th best victory, it doesn't go down as much. Net effect = higher RPI SOR.
You can say my 20/30 weights are arbitrary, and you wouldn't be wrong. I've always thought a team's best performances should be more important in NCAA selections than their worst losses, which is why I chose to decay wins more slowly. Other people may think different weightings make more sense.
If you want to see how this works in practice with every team in DI MLAX, you can see the calculation for each team here. You can even set your own weights and see how it affects the rankings.
In the same way, you sort the losses by how notable they are (so worst teams who beat you come first).
We are already used to comparing teams' best wins vs other teams' best wins and their worst losses against other teams' worst losses, so I assumed that the average fan would be able to grasp it.
Last edited by rolldodge on Thu Apr 20, 2023 11:02 am, edited 1 time in total.
Re: NCAA Selection Discussion - Containment Thread
This is a major flaw with RPI. It doesn't evaluate game by game, team by team. It paints with broad brushstrokes. I don't hate it much as I don't hate any/many ranking systems. But this flaw does bother me.laxreference wrote: ↑Thu Apr 20, 2023 10:54 amIf you don't weight the most notable results higher, then if two teams have an 8-2 record against the same 10 opponents, but the losses are to different teams, they have the same RPI SOR. That may be fine, but I think that most people would want the system to distinguish whether a team's best wins are better than another teams' best wins. Or you may not, in which case you'd probably prefer no decay factor.
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Re: NCAA Selection Discussion - Containment Thread
If I'm understanding you correctly, I think I disagree that using the RPI would allow you to differentiate which resume is better.rolldodge wrote: ↑Thu Apr 20, 2023 10:59 am If the schedule is that same, but the wins and losses are to different teams, just use the RPI to determine the overall strength of the wins and the overall weakness of the losses. Bringing another arbitrary datapoint into the mix is unnecessary complication IMHO.
Team 1: RPI #15
Team 2: RPI # 25
Team 3: RPI #35
Team 4: RPI #45
Team A: 3-1
Wins: T1 (75 - 15 = +60), T2 (+50), T4 (+30) = 140 quality win points
Losses: T3 (- 35) = -35 quality loss points
Undecayed RPI SOR: 105
Team B: 3-1
Wins: T3 (75 - 35= +40), T2 (+50), T4 (+30) = 120 quality win points
Losses: T1 (-15) = -15 quality loss points
Undecayed RPI SOR: 105
So if you don't weight the most notable results higher, you end up with a tie in SOR. Again, you may be fine with that.
But by using decay factors, if you want to give Team A the edge because their best win is better, you would be able to do that. Or if you want to give Team B the edge because they have the better loss, you could do that as well.
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Re: NCAA Selection Discussion - Containment Thread
It's a major flaw if RPI is the metric used to sort teams for bubble purposes. It's a major flaw if you use an SOR approach that uses opponent RPI as the input, but doesn't weight the most notable results higher. But adding a weight to the most notable results solves the issue.Matnum PI wrote: ↑Thu Apr 20, 2023 11:01 amThis is a major flaw with RPI. It doesn't evaluate game by game, team by team. It paints with broad brushstrokes. I don't hate it much as I don't hate any/many ranking systems. But this flaw does bother me.laxreference wrote: ↑Thu Apr 20, 2023 10:54 amIf you don't weight the most notable results higher, then if two teams have an 8-2 record against the same 10 opponents, but the losses are to different teams, they have the same RPI SOR. That may be fine, but I think that most people would want the system to distinguish whether a team's best wins are better than another teams' best wins. Or you may not, in which case you'd probably prefer no decay factor.
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Re: NCAA Selection Discussion - Containment Thread
I see. That makes sense. I still think the scenario that this reconciles is uncommon enough that you don’t need the complication across the board. I can’t think of a case where teams have exactly the same schedules and on top of that exactly the same records against that schedule but different wins and losses.laxreference wrote: ↑Thu Apr 20, 2023 11:08 amIf I'm understanding you correctly, I think I disagree that using the RPI would allow you to differentiate which resume is better.rolldodge wrote: ↑Thu Apr 20, 2023 10:59 am If the schedule is that same, but the wins and losses are to different teams, just use the RPI to determine the overall strength of the wins and the overall weakness of the losses. Bringing another arbitrary datapoint into the mix is unnecessary complication IMHO.
Team 1: RPI #15
Team 2: RPI # 25
Team 3: RPI #35
Team 4: RPI #45
Team A: 3-1
Wins: T1 (75 - 15 = +60), T2 (+50), T4 (+30) = 140 quality win points
Losses: T3 (- 35) = -35 quality loss points
Undecayed RPI SOR: 105
Team B: 3-1
Wins: T3 (75 - 35= +40), T2 (+50), T4 (+30) = 120 quality win points
Losses: T1 (-15) = -15 quality loss points
Undecayed RPI SOR: 105
So if you don't weight the most notable results higher, you end up with a tie in SOR. Again, you may be fine with that.
But by using decay factors, if you want to give Team A the edge because their best win is better, you would be able to do that. Or if you want to give Team B the edge because they have the better loss, you could do that as well.
I think in the off chance that this could possibly happen, you just go with the team that has stronger wins.
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Re: NCAA Selection Discussion - Containment Thread
The other feature of weighting the most notable results higher is more important IMO.rolldodge wrote: ↑Thu Apr 20, 2023 11:15 am
I see. That makes sense. I still think the scenario that this reconciles is uncommon enough that you don’t need the complication across the board. I can’t think of a case where teams have exactly the same schedules and on top of that exactly the same records against that schedule but different wins and losses.
I think in the off chance that this could possibly happen, you just go with the team that has stronger wins.
# of games played is always going to be different between different teams. Straight SOR struggles with this because if you are Duke, who plays a ton of games, you are getting credit added to your total by beating lower ranked teams. Compare that with an ND who plays very few softies. So you have to choose whether you want to divide by total games played or not. Either way, one of those two scheduling strategies gets penalized.
With decay rates, your least notable victory is going to give you very little boost in the SOR formula because a) it's by definition against a poor team and b) the weight is so low that you get almost no credit. So neither of those strategies necessarily is better under a decaying SOR formula.
But if you are Duke and you happen to lose one of those games, it probably becomes your most notable loss and gets the full weight that comes from being the most notable result. So a decaying RPI SOR formula gets the risk/reward right.
ND doesn't get the small boost from their 14th victory, and Duke does. But if Duke happened to lose that game, it tanks their RPI SOR score.
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Re: NCAA Selection Discussion - Containment Thread
I'm a User Experience designer, so I look these things from an ease of use/understandability viewpoint. So my opinions are going to naturally favor those qualities over mathematical completeness. That's why I use the divide by number of games to get a quality of win per game. I understand your point about Duke playing the softies helping them when you don't divide by # of games, but can you expand on how divide by games hurts the ND case?laxreference wrote: ↑Thu Apr 20, 2023 11:28 amThe other feature of weighting the most notable results higher is more important IMO.rolldodge wrote: ↑Thu Apr 20, 2023 11:15 am
I see. That makes sense. I still think the scenario that this reconciles is uncommon enough that you don’t need the complication across the board. I can’t think of a case where teams have exactly the same schedules and on top of that exactly the same records against that schedule but different wins and losses.
I think in the off chance that this could possibly happen, you just go with the team that has stronger wins.
# of games played is always going to be different between different teams. Straight SOR struggles with this because if you are Duke, who plays a ton of games, you are getting credit added to your total by beating lower ranked teams. Compare that with an ND who plays very few softies. So you have to choose whether you want to divide by total games played or not. Either way, one of those two scheduling strategies gets penalized.
With decay rates, your least notable victory is going to give you very little boost in the SOR formula because a) it's by definition against a poor team and b) the weight is so low that you get almost no credit. So neither of those strategies necessarily is better under a decaying SOR formula.
But if you are Duke and you happen to lose one of those games, it probably becomes your most notable loss and gets the full weight that comes from being the most notable result. So a decaying RPI SOR formula gets the risk/reward right.
ND doesn't get the small boost from their 14th victory, and Duke does. But if Duke happened to lose that game, it tanks their RPI SOR score.
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Re: NCAA Selection Discussion - Containment Thread
I would argue that dividing by the # of games helps a team like ND that plays fewer games against great competition. From an SOR/game played perspective, if ND and Duke played the same schedule, with the same record, but Duke added two games against softies and won them both, they could easily have a lower RPI SOR if you divide by games played. Here's an example that I thought out in more detail:rolldodge wrote: ↑Thu Apr 20, 2023 11:34 amI'm a User Experience designer, so I look these things from an ease of use/understandability viewpoint. So my opinions are going to naturally favor those qualities over mathematical completeness. That's why I use the divide by number of games to get a quality of win per game. I understand your point about Duke playing the softies helping them when you don't divide by # of games, but can you expand on how divide by games hurts the ND case?laxreference wrote: ↑Thu Apr 20, 2023 11:28 am
The other feature of weighting the most notable results higher is more important IMO.
# of games played is always going to be different between different teams. Straight SOR struggles with this because if you are Duke, who plays a ton of games, you are getting credit added to your total by beating lower ranked teams. Compare that with an ND who plays very few softies. So you have to choose whether you want to divide by total games played or not. Either way, one of those two scheduling strategies gets penalized.
With decay rates, your least notable victory is going to give you very little boost in the SOR formula because a) it's by definition against a poor team and b) the weight is so low that you get almost no credit. So neither of those strategies necessarily is better under a decaying SOR formula.
But if you are Duke and you happen to lose one of those games, it probably becomes your most notable loss and gets the full weight that comes from being the most notable result. So a decaying RPI SOR formula gets the risk/reward right.
ND doesn't get the small boost from their 14th victory, and Duke does. But if Duke happened to lose that game, it tanks their RPI SOR score.
Two teams (A and B) have both played 12 games against the same opponents and have won every game (so they both have 12-0 records). The average ranking of the opponents played is 27. Team B then plays one extra game against the 65th ranked team. At selection time, Team A has a 12-0 record against teams with an average ranking of 27. Team B has a 13-0 record with an average opponent ranking of 30. Does Team A or Team B have the more impressive resume?
The issue that I see with dividing by games played is that you are going to have to put Team B behind Team A even though I'm sure that many would argue that they have the better resume. Do we want to incentivize teams to schedule fewer games against better competition and avoid games against worse competition? I don't think so, but that's what dividing by games played would get you (IMO).
Smart use of a decaying mechanism doesn't penalize either scheduling strategy so coaches don't feel incentivized to go one way or the other. Whatever they think is the best strategy for building their program they can go with.
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Re: NCAA Selection Discussion - Containment Thread
I deal with this by bucketing the RPIs. Every win over a team less than #40 gets the same value. But you can definitely argue this is just as arbitrary.laxreference wrote: ↑Thu Apr 20, 2023 11:44 am
I would argue that dividing by the # of games helps a team like ND that plays fewer games against great competition. From an SOR/game played perspective, if ND and Duke played the same schedule, with the same record, but Duke added two games against softies and won them both, they could easily have a lower RPI SOR if you divide by games played. Here's an example that I thought out in more detail:
Two teams (A and B) have both played 12 games against the same opponents and have won every game (so they both have 12-0 records). The average ranking of the opponents played is 27. Team B then plays one extra game against the 65th ranked team. At selection time, Team A has a 12-0 record against teams with an average ranking of 27. Team B has a 13-0 record with an average opponent ranking of 30. Does Team A or Team B have the more impressive resume?
The issue that I see with dividing by games played is that you are going to have to put Team B behind Team A even though I'm sure that many would argue that they have the better resume. Do we want to incentivize teams to schedule fewer games against better competition and avoid games against worse competition? I don't think so, but that's what dividing by games played would get you (IMO).
Smart use of a decaying mechanism doesn't penalize either scheduling strategy so coaches don't feel incentivized to go one way or the other. Whatever they think is the best strategy for building their program they can go with.
Re: NCAA Selection Discussion - Containment Thread
laxreference wrote: ↑Thu Apr 20, 2023 11:44 amI would argue that dividing by the # of games helps a team like ND that plays fewer games against great competition. From an SOR/game played perspective, if ND and Duke played the same schedule, with the same record, but Duke added two games against softies and won them both, they could easily have a lower RPI SOR if you divide by games played. Here's an example that I thought out in more detail:rolldodge wrote: ↑Thu Apr 20, 2023 11:34 amI'm a User Experience designer, so I look these things from an ease of use/understandability viewpoint. So my opinions are going to naturally favor those qualities over mathematical completeness. That's why I use the divide by number of games to get a quality of win per game. I understand your point about Duke playing the softies helping them when you don't divide by # of games, but can you expand on how divide by games hurts the ND case?laxreference wrote: ↑Thu Apr 20, 2023 11:28 am
The other feature of weighting the most notable results higher is more important IMO.
# of games played is always going to be different between different teams. Straight SOR struggles with this because if you are Duke, who plays a ton of games, you are getting credit added to your total by beating lower ranked teams. Compare that with an ND who plays very few softies. So you have to choose whether you want to divide by total games played or not. Either way, one of those two scheduling strategies gets penalized.
With decay rates, your least notable victory is going to give you very little boost in the SOR formula because a) it's by definition against a poor team and b) the weight is so low that you get almost no credit. So neither of those strategies necessarily is better under a decaying SOR formula.
But if you are Duke and you happen to lose one of those games, it probably becomes your most notable loss and gets the full weight that comes from being the most notable result. So a decaying RPI SOR formula gets the risk/reward right.
ND doesn't get the small boost from their 14th victory, and Duke does. But if Duke happened to lose that game, it tanks their RPI SOR score.
Two teams (A and B) have both played 12 games against the same opponents and have won every game (so they both have 12-0 records). The average ranking of the opponents played is 27. Team B then plays one extra game against the 65th ranked team. At selection time, Team A has a 12-0 record against teams with an average ranking of 27. Team B has a 13-0 record with an average opponent ranking of 30. Does Team A or Team B have the more impressive resume?
The issue that I see with dividing by games played is that you are going to have to put Team B behind Team A even though I'm sure that many would argue that they have the better resume. Do we want to incentivize teams to schedule fewer games against better competition and avoid games against worse competition? I don't think so, but that's what dividing by games played would get you (IMO).
Smart use of a decaying mechanism doesn't penalize either scheduling strategy so coaches don't feel incentivized to go one way or the other. Whatever they think is the best strategy for building their program they can go with.
I think this is why the committee caps the SOS at your top 10 RPI games? Maybe something similar? I like the idea behind the decay, it still feels a little hard to quickly grasp.
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Re: NCAA Selection Discussion - Containment Thread
Two bubble teams (A and B) have gone 12-3 against the same schedule.
They are independents, so they have no AQ; their losses were to the same 3 teams; they did not play each other and both ended the year on a WLWLW streak
The avg RPI of the 12 teams that they beat is 27. Team B then plays a game against the #65 team, who they beat. (The game was previously scheduled; not a last minute add).
Assuming they are the last two teams in consideration for one spot in the NCAA field, who should get the bid?
They are independents, so they have no AQ; their losses were to the same 3 teams; they did not play each other and both ended the year on a WLWLW streak
The avg RPI of the 12 teams that they beat is 27. Team B then plays a game against the #65 team, who they beat. (The game was previously scheduled; not a last minute add).
Assuming they are the last two teams in consideration for one spot in the NCAA field, who should get the bid?
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Re: NCAA Selection Discussion - Containment Thread
Assuming that beating the #65 team drops Team B's RPI and avg RPI win below those of Team A, then Team A should get in. That's the way the cookie crumbles. Team A scheduled smarter.laxreference wrote: ↑Thu Apr 20, 2023 2:56 pm Two bubble teams (A and B) have gone 12-3 against the same schedule.
They are independents, so they have no AQ; their losses were to the same 3 teams; they did not play each other and both ended the year on a WLWLW streak
The avg RPI of the 12 teams that they beat is 27. Team B then plays a game against the #65 team, who they beat. (The game was previously scheduled; not a last minute add).
Assuming they are the last two teams in consideration for one spot in the NCAA field, who should get the bid?
Otherwise, this scenario sounds like where input from the regional advisory committee, which is technically part of the criteria, should come into play.
Re: NCAA Selection Discussion - Containment Thread
Isn't this one of the reasons the committee looks at wins via RPI tiers? The avg RPI could be the same, but one team could have more top 5 or top 10 wins. My hypothesis is that (in some years) they particularly like to take teams with top 5 wins because it indicates an ability for an upset.laxreference wrote: ↑Thu Apr 20, 2023 2:56 pm Two bubble teams (A and B) have gone 12-3 against the same schedule.
They are independents, so they have no AQ; their losses were to the same 3 teams; they did not play each other and both ended the year on a WLWLW streak
The avg RPI of the 12 teams that they beat is 27. Team B then plays a game against the #65 team, who they beat. (The game was previously scheduled; not a last minute add).
Assuming they are the last two teams in consideration for one spot in the NCAA field, who should get the bid?
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Re: NCAA Selection Discussion - Containment Thread
Interesting discussion, especially the zero-sum nature of 2 teams with the same schedule: one with better wins, the other with better losses. It all gets to what you want in the tourney. Do you reward consistency, which would point to the team with better losses? IMO, no. For bubble teams, I'd prefer the team with the higher "standard deviation" of performance - the team with better wins (and worse losses) - as that team is more likely to upset a highly ranked team in the tourney.
Re: NCAA Selection Discussion - Containment Thread
I agree. Teams should be judged mainly by their wins. Losses should be accounted for but carry less weight. Wins should always improve a teams standing, losses should always hurt.NOVALax2015 wrote: ↑Fri Apr 21, 2023 8:44 am Interesting discussion, especially the zero-sum nature of 2 teams with the same schedule: one with better wins, the other with better losses. It all gets to what you want in the tourney. Do you reward consistency, which would point to the team with better losses? IMO, no. For bubble teams, I'd prefer the team with the higher "standard deviation" of performance - the team with better wins (and worse losses) - as that team is more likely to upset a highly ranked team in the tourney.
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Re: NCAA Selection Discussion - Containment Thread
I was really surprised that this was not the dominant opinion actually. I did a twitter poll asking the question above about the same record + a win vs a lowly ranked team. Not that it's scientific and who knows how many of the answers were trolling, but 57% said that the team with the extra win should be left out.rolldodge wrote: ↑Fri Apr 21, 2023 9:00 amI agree. Teams should be judged mainly by their wins. Losses should be accounted for but carry less weight. Wins should always improve a teams standing, losses should always hurt.NOVALax2015 wrote: ↑Fri Apr 21, 2023 8:44 am Interesting discussion, especially the zero-sum nature of 2 teams with the same schedule: one with better wins, the other with better losses. It all gets to what you want in the tourney. Do you reward consistency, which would point to the team with better losses? IMO, no. For bubble teams, I'd prefer the team with the higher "standard deviation" of performance - the team with better wins (and worse losses) - as that team is more likely to upset a highly ranked team in the tourney.
I would be fine with the boost from a terrible win being very close to zero, but I feel like it has to be positive certainly.
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Re: NCAA Selection Discussion - Containment Thread
Wins.....such a strange idea. Some, call it silly. Top 16, not a bad field, but somewhere, it IS written, that only certain "types" of friends can go to beach day. American East with multiple teams !! insanityrolldodge wrote: ↑Fri Apr 21, 2023 9:00 amI agree. Teams should be judged mainly by their wins. Losses should be accounted for but carry less weight. Wins should always improve a teams standing, losses should always hurt.NOVALax2015 wrote: ↑Fri Apr 21, 2023 8:44 am Interesting discussion, especially the zero-sum nature of 2 teams with the same schedule: one with better wins, the other with better losses. It all gets to what you want in the tourney. Do you reward consistency, which would point to the team with better losses? IMO, no. For bubble teams, I'd prefer the team with the higher "standard deviation" of performance - the team with better wins (and worse losses) - as that team is more likely to upset a highly ranked team in the tourney.
https://www.ncaa.com/stats/lacrosse-men ... t/team/233
but.....golly gee.....that UPenn sure does know how to lose themselves some games. Matters NOT.....top 10 in the magic dust formula......will get the Quakers in. Winning doesn't mean much and the sporting world thinks lacrosse is strange.
Penn lost to Brown
Brown lost to Quinnipiac
Quinnipiac lost to Wagner
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And, apologize to all the Wahoo fans. University of Virginia HAS.......played a regular season AWAY game against a New England opponent: (east of the Hudson river )
Manhattan 2018 (Uva squeeked out the win 8-5 )
Brown Lockdown year. (Brown won) any connection or reason as to why this game happened?
and....apparently, played Dartmouth, at Dartmouth....at some point in history. Maybe the 1938 game, when FDR was president ?
Why does THIS matter ?
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https://static.virginiasports.com/pdfs/ ... 1682083176
Vermont
Umass
Sacred Heart
Yale
Harvard
Bryant
Fairfield
Providence
Merrimack
Dartmouth
Quinnipiac
Lowell
Brown
Holy Cross
Boston U.
UVA is an independent team. NO .....reason to play other ACC teams, at all. Cool they are playing in Easton, PA. Getting the boys introduced to hotel living for the playoffs.
ILM...Independent Lives Matter
Pronouns: "we" and "suck"
Pronouns: "we" and "suck"