LaxPower Back-Up Stick

PizzaSnake wrote: ↑Sun May 15, 2022 10:32 pm

Maverick wrote: ↑Sun May 15, 2022 10:30 pm

PizzaSnake wrote: ↑Sun May 15, 2022 10:27 pm I know what it is, Maverick. The rains in Spain are causing these teams to disappoint. That it?

I'm going to make a hypothesis based on the interactions I've had today. Since your comments lack any use of logic deductive reasoning or tact, I'm going to guess you are a Cornell fan not named cu77

But they have punctuation.

Do you know the rule of holes?

You win! Your prize is hidden behind the outlet your router is plugged into

Maverick wrote: ↑Sun May 15, 2022 10:34 pm

wgdsr wrote: ↑Sun May 15, 2022 10:30 pm

Maverick wrote: ↑Sun May 15, 2022 10:25 pm

wgdsr wrote: ↑Sun May 15, 2022 10:17 pm huh? we haven't made anything remotely close to the same point about how vegas makes money.

They favor the team that should win, but not by too much unless the difference is drastic. Then people bet each thinking both sides are reasonable.

To repeat; they favored UVA because if they dogged then they would have way too many bets that's they might lose. We are saying the same thing

no mav, they don't favor the team that should win. they favor the team that will draw 50% money on each side. the line is what the betting public thinks. that's all. the betting public could be completely wrong. vegas doesn't care.

So what draws money on both sides? How do they pick that number what makes them realize it will draw even bets? They favor the team likely to win but only by enough that others will bet the upset. That's why it's a spread not w or l you might think Duke is gonna beat UNC in the final four but not by 8

experience on what the public will bet. and then it moves accordingly. i tried.

Maverick wrote: ↑Sun May 15, 2022 10:37 pm

PizzaSnake wrote: ↑Sun May 15, 2022 10:32 pm

Maverick wrote: ↑Sun May 15, 2022 10:30 pm

PizzaSnake wrote: ↑Sun May 15, 2022 10:27 pm I know what it is, Maverick. The rains in Spain are causing these teams to disappoint. That it?

I'm going to make a hypothesis based on the interactions I've had today. Since your comments lack any use of logic deductive reasoning or tact, I'm going to guess you are a Cornell fan not named cu77

But they have punctuation.

Do you know the rule of holes?

You win! Your prize is hidden behind the outlet your router is plugged into

Stop digging.

Bookies set odds based on what will draw an equal number of bets on each team. The game odds/spread are not based on what team they think is better, but solely on what will provide the 50/50 split in bets. Then when you add the 11/10 odds/vig on top of that, the casino sports book makes money no matter who wins. That is the goal for every single game.

wgdsr wrote: ↑Sun May 15, 2022 10:38 pm

Maverick wrote: ↑Sun May 15, 2022 10:34 pm

wgdsr wrote: ↑Sun May 15, 2022 10:30 pm

Maverick wrote: ↑Sun May 15, 2022 10:25 pm

wgdsr wrote: ↑Sun May 15, 2022 10:17 pm huh? we haven't made anything remotely close to the same point about how vegas makes money.

They favor the team that should win, but not by too much unless the difference is drastic. Then people bet each thinking both sides are reasonable.

To repeat; they favored UVA because if they dogged then they would have way too many bets that's they might lose. We are saying the same thing

no mav, they don't favor the team that should win. they favor the team that will draw 50% money on each side. the line is what the betting public thinks. that's all. the betting public could be completely wrong. vegas doesn't care.

So what draws money on both sides? How do they pick that number what makes them realize it will draw even bets? They favor the team likely to win but only by enough that others will bet the upset. That's why it's a spread not w or l you might think Duke is gonna beat UNC in the final four but not by 8

experience on what the public will bet. and then it moves accordingly. i tried.

So why favor UVA vs brown? What made them think that was the smart play. Why do people bet the spread and not w-l?

Chousnake wrote: ↑Sun May 15, 2022 10:40 pm Bookies set odds based on what will draw an equal number of bets on each team. The game odds/spread are not based on what team they think is better, but solely on what will provide the 50/50 split in bets. Then when you add the 11/10 odds/vig on top of that, the casino sports book makes money no matter who wins. That is the goal for every single game.

So why favor any team? What would draw even bets? Why do we have a spread? You guys struggling to realize they favor the team they expect to win but not by too much so that people will bet the upset. That's what you are saying, but denying at the same exact time

This should help. Why would Vegas not favor brown? Because everyone would bet UVA. Why would they not favor UVA by 10? Because everyone would take brown to cover. Their odds while ultimately are set to get equal bets are based on who they expect to cover

Maverick wrote: ↑Sun May 15, 2022 10:40 pm

wgdsr wrote: ↑Sun May 15, 2022 10:38 pm

Maverick wrote: ↑Sun May 15, 2022 10:34 pm

wgdsr wrote: ↑Sun May 15, 2022 10:30 pm

Maverick wrote: ↑Sun May 15, 2022 10:25 pm

wgdsr wrote: ↑Sun May 15, 2022 10:17 pm huh? we haven't made anything remotely close to the same point about how vegas makes money.

They favor the team that should win, but not by too much unless the difference is drastic. Then people bet each thinking both sides are reasonable.

To repeat; they favored UVA because if they dogged then they would have way too many bets that's they might lose. We are saying the same thing

no mav, they don't favor the team that should win. they favor the team that will draw 50% money on each side. the line is what the betting public thinks. that's all. the betting public could be completely wrong. vegas doesn't care.

So what draws money on both sides? How do they pick that number what makes them realize it will draw even bets? They favor the team likely to win but only by enough that others will bet the upset. That's why it's a spread not w or l you might think Duke is gonna beat UNC in the final four but not by 8

experience on what the public will bet. and then it moves accordingly. i tried.

So why favor UVA vs brown? What made them think that was the smart play. Why do people bet the spread and not w-l?

experience. i already said that, mav. and people do bet both spreads and w/l. the w/l draws odds. and even larger vig.

Maverick wrote: ↑Sun May 15, 2022 10:40 pm

wgdsr wrote: ↑Sun May 15, 2022 10:38 pm

Maverick wrote: ↑Sun May 15, 2022 10:34 pm

wgdsr wrote: ↑Sun May 15, 2022 10:30 pm

Maverick wrote: ↑Sun May 15, 2022 10:25 pm

wgdsr wrote: ↑Sun May 15, 2022 10:17 pm huh? we haven't made anything remotely close to the same point about how vegas makes money.

They favor the team that should win, but not by too much unless the difference is drastic. Then people bet each thinking both sides are reasonable.

To repeat; they favored UVA because if they dogged then they would have way too many bets that's they might lose. We are saying the same thing

no mav, they don't favor the team that should win. they favor the team that will draw 50% money on each side. the line is what the betting public thinks. that's all. the betting public could be completely wrong. vegas doesn't care.

So what draws money on both sides? How do they pick that number what makes them realize it will draw even bets? They favor the team likely to win but only by enough that others will bet the upset. That's why it's a spread not w or l you might think Duke is gonna beat UNC in the final four but not by 8

experience on what the public will bet. and then it moves accordingly. i tried.

So why favor UVA vs brown? What made them think that was the smart play. Why do people bet the spread and not w-l?

For most sports, there is a point spread and a money line on each game. Let's say Cornell was favored to beat OSU by 2.5 goals today. You could bet either team, but with the vig, a $100 bet wins $90 and loses $100. So if you bet $100 on Cornell -2.5 , you win $190 (your $100 back plus $90). If you bet OSU, you lost $100. So if there was one bet on each team, the house took in $200 and paid out $190 for a $10 profit.

Let's say for the money line, the sports book thinks the Cornell/OSU game was a toss up. The odds for each team would be -110, which means a $100 bet pays $190 to win. So if one better bets Cornell -110 and another bets OSU -110, the house pays out $190 and takes in $200.

Maverick wrote: ↑Sun May 15, 2022 10:44 pm This should help. Why would Vegas not favor brown? Because everyone would bet UVA. Why would they not favor UVA by 10? Because everyone would take brown to cover. Their odds while ultimately are set to get equal bets are based on who they expect to cover

you just won't get it. vegas does not at any point set a line based on who they expect to cover what. they would go bankrupt more often than their clients.

Chousnake wrote: ↑Sun May 15, 2022 10:49 pm

Maverick wrote: ↑Sun May 15, 2022 10:40 pm

wgdsr wrote: ↑Sun May 15, 2022 10:38 pm

Maverick wrote: ↑Sun May 15, 2022 10:34 pm

wgdsr wrote: ↑Sun May 15, 2022 10:30 pm

Maverick wrote: ↑Sun May 15, 2022 10:25 pm

wgdsr wrote: ↑Sun May 15, 2022 10:17 pm huh? we haven't made anything remotely close to the same point about how vegas makes money.

They favor the team that should win, but not by too much unless the difference is drastic. Then people bet each thinking both sides are reasonable.

To repeat; they favored UVA because if they dogged then they would have way too many bets that's they might lose. We are saying the same thing

no mav, they don't favor the team that should win. they favor the team that will draw 50% money on each side. the line is what the betting public thinks. that's all. the betting public could be completely wrong. vegas doesn't care.

So what draws money on both sides? How do they pick that number what makes them realize it will draw even bets? They favor the team likely to win but only by enough that others will bet the upset. That's why it's a spread not w or l you might think Duke is gonna beat UNC in the final four but not by 8

experience on what the public will bet. and then it moves accordingly. i tried.

So why favor UVA vs brown? What made them think that was the smart play. Why do people bet the spread and not w-l?

For most sports, there is a point spread and a money line on each game. Let's say Cornell was favored to beat OSU by 2.5 goals today. You could bet either team, but with the vig, a $100 bet wins $90 and loses $100. So if you bet $100 on Cornell -2.5 , you win $190 (your $100 back plus $90). If you bet OSU, you lost $100. So if there was one bet on each team, the house took in $200 and paid out $190 - $10 profit.

Let's say for the money line, the sports book thinks the Cornell/OSU game was a toss up. The odds for each team would be -110, which means a $100 bet pays $190 to win. So if one better bets Cornell -110 and another bets OSU -110, the house pays out $190 and takes in $200.

You are a patient and generous soul.

Maverick wrote: ↑Sun May 15, 2022 10:44 pm This should help. Why would Vegas not favor brown? Because everyone would bet UVA. Why would they not favor UVA by 10? Because everyone would take brown to cover. Their odds while ultimately are set to get equal bets are based on who they expect to cover

If a team has lots of betting fans (eg. ND), then vegas will make ND an overweighted favorite to balance out the bets. Trying to look at betting lines to determine which team is better is not productive.

Chousnake wrote: ↑Sun May 15, 2022 10:40 pm Bookies set odds based on what will draw an equal number of bets on each team. The game odds/spread are not based on what team they think is better, but solely on what will provide the 50/50 split in bets. Then when you add the 11/10 odds/vig on top of that, the casino sports book makes money no matter who wins. That is the goal for every single game.

+1000

I know the ACC people are PO’d,

but that was a great first round, for the lax fan.

CU77 wrote: ↑Sun May 15, 2022 10:26 pm

a fan wrote: ↑Sun May 15, 2022 10:23 pm I think the one part we all agree with is that the RPI system they've been using has been flawed for decades now.

I do not agree. I think RPI is perfectly fine.

And if you think it's not fine, you need to tell us what would be better.

Exactly what was done this year. Use RPI...or Krach or whatever...as a starting point, and then dig into who teams beat and to whom they lost. That stops the nonsense where a team plays and loses to top ten teams, beats up on mediocre (21+ teams), but gets a high RPI score based on those top ten losses. If you've played five top ten teams and lost to four, you are not a third seed in the tournament. I don't care what RPI says.

Gobigred wrote: ↑Mon May 16, 2022 8:02 am

CU77 wrote: ↑Sun May 15, 2022 10:26 pm

a fan wrote: ↑Sun May 15, 2022 10:23 pm I think the one part we all agree with is that the RPI system they've been using has been flawed for decades now.

I do not agree. I think RPI is perfectly fine.

And if you think it's not fine, you need to tell us what would be better.

Exactly what was done this year. Use RPI...or Krach or whatever...as a starting point, and then dig into who teams beat and to whom they lost. That stops the nonsense where a team plays and loses to top ten teams, beats up on mediocre (21+ teams), but gets a high RPI score based on those top ten losses. If you've played five top ten teams and lost to four, you are not a third seed in the tournament. I don't care what RPI says.

and as long as the coaches are good with it, we'll continue to get what we've gotten for a long time... random selections on the bubble with no discernible pattern, applied unevenly year to year and even team to team in the same year. with a new group of asst ad's from varying non-lacrosse backgrounds and a couple coaches who carry bias unwittingly or not.

buyer beware, your school is next.

Rutgers was told to suck it up when we didn't make it. There was no outrage. I'd say the same to ND now.

1766 wrote: ↑Mon May 16, 2022 10:57 am Rutgers was told to suck it up when we didn't make it. There was no outrage. I'd say the same to ND now.

what was the case for rutgers?

wgdsr wrote: ↑Mon May 16, 2022 11:01 am

1766 wrote: ↑Mon May 16, 2022 10:57 am Rutgers was told to suck it up when we didn't make it. There was no outrage. I'd say the same to ND now.

what was the case for rutgers?

Beating the team that got in over them....on the field......twice.

Chousnake wrote: ↑Mon May 16, 2022 11:18 am

wgdsr wrote: ↑Mon May 16, 2022 11:01 am

1766 wrote: ↑Mon May 16, 2022 10:57 am Rutgers was told to suck it up when we didn't make it. There was no outrage. I'd say the same to ND now.

what was the case for rutgers?

Beating the team that got in over them....on the field......twice.

is that it? one out of like 9 criteria? there has to be more, i'd imagine.