All things CoronaVirus

[ardilla secreta]

And you trust that serious/critical number? And that it is going down even if true while the total number of cases skyrockets?

Given the lack of testing, it would be my belief that the total number of cases is much higher than listed already.

No Fing sheet!

[RedFromMI]

And you trust that serious/critical number? And that it is going down even if true while the total number of cases skyrockets?

Given the lack of testing, it would be my belief that the total number of cases is much higher than listed already.

Then the correct conclusion is it keeps getting worse. Just the opposite of what you first said.

[ardilla secreta]

I live a couple miles from the Canadian border. We call it Normaltown. So, if I cross the border with a beaver in the front seat, a Loon and Moose in the back, I can’t get in? Eh?

[wgdsr]

This site
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Has the active cases at 18,984 with only 64 as serious or critical.
This low number of serious or critical cases indicates that we should end the lockdown.

Deaths are up to 256.

Look farther down the page and find the total number of cases in the US. Still exponential growth. You are deluding yourself.

Switch the view to log plot. Straight line=exponential. The threat is GROWING

So far, the coronavirus in the US is not causing enough serious or critical cases.

i've been monitoring worldometer for several weeks bc it seems to have the most updated numbers, and breaks it down, you can track.
some countries have what look like daily updated critical numbers. the us does not. they were on 10 for a long time, then bumped to 28 for a while and then 64 for now several days. several times more people have died since it's been posted.

iran has had some pretty consistent case and death numbers for a number of days. they don't seem accurate, but the critical case number for the us definitely is not.

getting much higher detected case numbers can do nothing but help. there's no guessing that there's some multiple of cases that haven't been tested. 5x? 30x? what we needed was tests out there awhile ago (s korea). supposedly there's more of them. and more of them coming. they are what's needed to identify who is carrying to slow this down.

the reason why this is the most dangerous virus in over 100 years is that's it's passed on with so many people showing no symptoms.

and yet -- we've so far spent trillions and destroyed trillions more bc we don't have test kits. read that again.

[RedFromMI]

and yet -- we've so far spent trillions and destroyed trillions more bc we don't have test kits. read that again.

Needs a little more emphasis...

[Jim Malone]

One patient per hour passing in NYC per last report in NY Post minutes ago. And, it is just the beginning. Folk can blame Trump all they want but the Administrators of these large health plans knew this was coming and got caught short too! The fat cats who pull in the do re me!!

[jhu72]

This site
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Has the active cases at 18,984 with only 64 as serious or critical.
This low number of serious or critical cases indicates that we should end the lockdown.

Deaths are up to 256.

Look farther down the page and find the total number of cases in the US. Still exponential growth. You are deluding yourself.

Switch the view to log plot. Straight line=exponential. The threat is GROWING

Agree. I have finished my calculations for the past 24 hours and we continue to see 24 hour infection growth of more than 45% - shown on your first graph above. More states moving into the over 1 death per million, and growing category. I will post all of this later.

For now I am updating on what is going on in one of the largest national HMOs (wife's employer). They have already cut back their daily patient load by canceling appointments for preventative care in preparation for a huge influx. In those parts of the country where they have not started seeing that influx, they are forcing clinicians to take vacation days on a rotating basis to rest up for the coming battle. They are conducting most of their patient exams via telemedicine so as not to degrade the work force through patient interaction at this time. They have decided to despecialize so that when the battle begins non-internist physicians will work under the direction of the internists (internal medicine specialists) in the groups. This is a force multiplier for the internists, the most capable in handling this type of disease. HMO management has notified their physicians that they under no circumstance are to prescribe the Trump anti-malaria ("he feels good about them") drugs.

As I have indicated the past few days, Louisiana appeared to be a growing problem based on the per capita data. Today Louisiana made news that they are indeed in trouble, so we will start hearing more about them. Florida also looks like they are soon to be in the crosshairs based on the Kinsa networked thermometer data. Probably a week away. They have not started reporting large per capita infections, but they will.

It has been reported that Ivanka tested negative after contact with Australian carrier. The meeting was reported (I posted) a few weeks ago. Ivanka was there with Barr. Radio silence on Barr.

[old salt]

We have smart states and dumbass states. Unfortunately, we have an ununited states that’s allowing the spread. If a national enemy were invading the US there would hopefully be a strategic plan led by the president. So, why doesn’t the president shut down the USA instead of waiting for the backward states to take it for real? They are literally killing us.

So NY,CA & WA are dumbass states ?

in the big picture, i understand the need for testing (contact tracing & community spread mapping),
but we're facing a triage crisis in PPE for our healthcare workers, ...which was known & forecast.
How much of our PPE stockpile was consumed doing testing, yielding 90% negatives,
...when we were headed for social distancing & lockdowns anyway ?

[holmes435]

One patient per hour passing in NYC per last report in NY Post minutes ago. And, it is just the beginning. Folk can blame Trump all they want but the Administrators of these large health plans knew this was coming and got caught short too! The fat cats who pull in the do re me!!

The fat cats deserve plenty of blame.

But who enables this system of for-profit healthcare where we spend thousands more per capita for healthcare than the rest of the modern world?

The fat cats can't get fatter if there isn't excess food.

[calourie]

Quote from jhu72:

"For now I am updating on what is going on in one of the largest national HMOs (wife's employer). They have already cut back their daily patient load by canceling appointments for preventative care in preparation for a huge influx. In those parts of the country where they have not started seeing that influx, they are forcing clinicians to take vacation days on a rotating basis to rest up for the coming battle. They are conducting most of their patient exams via telemedicine so as not to degrade the work force through patient interaction at this time. They have decided to despecialize so that when the battle begins non-internist physicians will work under the direction of the internists (internal medicine specialists) in the groups. This is a force multiplier for the internists, the most capable in handling this type of disease. HMO management has notified their physicians that they under no circumstance are to prescribe the Trump anti-malaria ("he feels good about them") drugs."


Interesting note on the anti-malarial drug as L. Ingraham was on Fox tonight talking to a Lennox Hill oncologist who claims they were seeing encouraging results with the anti-mmalarial drug hydroxycloroquine combined with azithromycine. Imagine Dr. Faucci will have something to say about this soon.

[DocBarrister]

This site
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Has the active cases at 18,984 with only 64 as serious or critical.
This low number of serious or critical cases indicates that we should end the lockdown.

Deaths are up to 256.

Look farther down the page and find the total number of cases in the US. Still exponential growth. You are deluding yourself.

Switch the view to log plot. Straight line=exponential. The threat is GROWING

Agree. I have finished my calculations for the past 24 hours and we continue to see 24 hour infection growth of more than 45% - shown on your first graph above. More states moving into the over 1 death per million, and growing category. I will post all of this later.

For now I am updating on what is going on in one of the largest national HMOs (wife's employer). They have already cut back their daily patient load by canceling appointments for preventative care in preparation for a huge influx. In those parts of the country where they have not started seeing that influx, they are forcing clinicians to take vacation days on a rotating basis to rest up for the coming battle. They are conducting most of their patient exams via telemedicine so as not to degrade the work force through patient interaction at this time. They have decided to despecialize so that when the battle begins non-internist physicians will work under the direction of the internists (internal medicine specialists) in the groups. This is a force multiplier for the internists, the most capable in handling this type of disease. HMO management has notified their physicians that they under no circumstance are to prescribe the Trump anti-malaria ("he feels good about them") drugs.

As I have indicated the past few days, Louisiana appeared to be a growing problem based on the per capita data. Today Louisiana made news that they are indeed in trouble, so we will start hearing more about them. Florida also looks like they are soon to be in the crosshairs based on the Kinsa networked thermometer data. Probably a week away. They have not started reporting large per capita infections, but they will.

It has been reported that Ivanka tested negative after contact with Australian carrier. The meeting was reported (I posted) a few weeks ago. Ivanka was there with Barr. Radio silence on Barr.

New York City is in serious trouble. Gov. Cuomo waited too long to shut down the city.

Louisiana looks like a developing disaster.

The thermometer data from Florida appears catastrophic. I hope this is not the case, but I’m concerned we could see apocalyptic casualties in Florida over the next month.

I think the casualty numbers in the United States are potentially heading in a disastrous direction. The relative lack of testing is an absolute calamity.

DocBarrister

[DocBarrister]

We have smart states and dumbass states. Unfortunately, we have an ununited states that’s allowing the spread. If a national enemy were invading the US there would hopefully be a strategic plan led by the president. So, why doesn’t the president shut down the USA instead of waiting for the backward states to take it for real? They are literally killing us.

So NY,CA & WA are dumbass states ?

in the big picture, i understand the need for testing (contact tracing & community spread mapping),
but we're facing a triage crisis in PPE for our healthcare workers, ...which was known & forecast.
How much of our PPE stockpile was consumed doing testing, yielding 90% negatives,
...when we were headed for social distancing & lockdowns anyway ?

We need more of it all ... much, much more testing ... much, much more PPEs ... much, much more lockdowns.

We’re already far behind in all of that. The pandemic is surging in the United States.

DocBarrister

[DocBarrister]

We are now at 19,624 confirmed cases. Within the next 24 hours, the United States will surge past Germany, Iran, and Spain.

Within two weeks, we will likely surpass Italy in confirmed cases. Within four weeks, we may surpass Italy in fatalities. I hope the current trajectory doesn’t hold and that none of that happens. I’m not optimistic.

DocBarrister

[CU77]

So NY,CA & WA are dumbass states ?

Thanks for this useless snark.

How much of our PPE stockpile was consumed doing testing, yielding 90% negatives,
...when we were headed for social distancing & lockdowns anyway ?

Around 100,000 tests have been done in the US so far. The PPE need is in the tens of millions.

Tell me that you honestly didn't know this.

[Farfromgeneva]

Here a fun story:

So my mother who lives alone in a small house w maybe one friend nearby (also older lady) is in the hospital bc she fell down at home after having been at an emergency room and release night prior. Hadn’t eaten in two days and now has a broken arm. In addition, though I have to verify, she told me and my sister she has liver cancer (unofficially diagnoses by an MRI not sure dr seems convinced but biopsy is weds). They’ve made the decision she can’t live alone and won’t release her that way so I’m driving up mom or Tuesday to Binghamton. Town is shut down I’m told and I have to go up get her out and find her a ALF facility as fast as possible. All while this virus pandemic is going on. Should be fun. Not even sure I can visit ALF joints right now. Bad time for any other stuff to happen in life suffice to say bc this wouldn’t be easy without the virus. Thank whoever I can do my work remotely and have a contract with a partner that rolls a few months on this work.

[seacoaster]

Here a fun story:

So my mother who lives alone in a small house w maybe one friend nearby (also older lady) is in the hospital bc she fell down at home after having been at an emergency room and release night prior. Hadn’t eaten in two days and now has a broken arm. In addition, though I have to verify, she told me and my sister she has liver cancer (unofficially diagnoses by an MRI not sure dr seems convinced but biopsy is weds). They’ve made the decision she can’t live alone and won’t release her that way so I’m driving up mom or Tuesday to Binghamton. Town is shut down I’m told and I have to go up get her out and find her a ALF facility as fast as possible. All while this virus pandemic is going on. Should be fun. Not even sure I can visit ALF joints right now. Bad time for any other stuff to happen in life suffice to say bc this wouldn’t be easy without the virus. Thank whoever I can do my work remotely and have a contract with a partner that rolls a few months on this work.

Not a fun story, and very sorry for your and your mom’ troubles. Hang in there, and good luck.

[Kismet]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/heal ... fb-nytimes

A Different Way to Chart the Spread of Coronavirus

Those skyrocketing curves tell an alarming story. But logarithmic graphs can help reveal when the pandemic begins to slow.

A nice explanation of linear vs. logarithmic measurements.

This would be especially important here is USA as we have not been testing, so it is difficult to impossible to know if the positives increased testing are from those recently infected or who have had it for a while.

[Trinity]

“Inside the White House, Trump’s advisers struggled to get him to take the virus seriously.”
A compelling case for gross negligence and dereliction of duty in ignoring the clear warning signs of the coming pandemic.“

Michael Bromwich, SDNY vet

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national ... story.html

[seacoaster]

“Inside the White House, Trump’s advisers struggled to get him to take the virus seriously.”
A compelling case for gross negligence and dereliction of duty in ignoring the clear warning signs of the coming pandemic.“

Michael Bromwich, SDNY vet

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national ... story.html

Here is some of the text, for whose who hit a paywall:

"On Jan. 27, White House aides huddled with then-acting chief of staff Mick Mulvaney in his office, trying to get senior officials to pay more attention to the virus, according to people briefed on the meeting. Joe Grogan, the head of the White House Domestic Policy Council, argued that the administration needed to take the virus seriously or it could cost the president his reelection, and that dealing with the virus was likely to dominate life in the United States for many months.

Mulvaney then began convening more regular meetings. In early briefings, however, officials said Trump was dismissive because he did not believe that the virus had spread widely throughout the United States.

By early February, Grogan and others worried that there weren’t enough tests to determine the rate of infection, according to people who spoke directly to Grogan. Other officials, including Matthew Pottinger, the president’s deputy national security adviser, began calling for a more forceful response, according to people briefed on White House meetings.

But Trump resisted and continued to assure Americans that the coronavirus would never run rampant as it had in other countries.

“I think it’s going to work out fine,” Trump said on Feb. 19. “I think when we get into April, in the warmer weather, that has a very negative effect on that and that type of a virus.”

“The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA,” Trump tweeted five days later. “Stock Market starting to look very good to me!”

But earlier that month, a senior official in the Department of Health and Human Services delivered a starkly different message to the Senate Intelligence Committee, in a classified briefing that four U.S. officials said covered the coronavirus and its global health implications.

Robert Kadlec, the assistant secretary for preparedness and response — who was joined by intelligence officials, including from the CIA — told committee members that the virus posed a “serious” threat, one of those officials said.

Kadlec didn’t provide specific recommendations, but he said that to get ahead of the virus and blunt its effects, Americans would need to take actions that could disrupt their daily lives, the official said. “It was very alarming.”

Trump’s insistence on the contrary seemed to rest in his relationship with China’s President Xi Jingping, whom Trump believed was providing him with reliable information about how the virus was spreading in China, despite reports from intelligence agencies that Chinese officials were not being candid about the true scale of the crisis.

Some of Trump’s advisers told him that Beijing was not providing accurate numbers of people who were infected or who had died, according to administration officials. Rather than press China to be more forthcoming, Trump publicly praised its response.

“China has been working very hard to contain the Coronavirus,” Trump tweeted Jan. 24. “The United States greatly appreciates their efforts and transparency. It will all work out well. In particular, on behalf of the American People, I want to thank President Xi!”

Some of Trump’s advisers encouraged him to be tougher on China over its decision not to allow teams from the CDC into the country, administration officials said.

In one February meeting, the president said that if he struck a tougher tone against Xi, the Chinese would be less willing to give the Americans information about how they were tackling the outbreak.

Trump on Feb. 3 banned foreigners who had been in China in the previous 14 days from entering the United States, a step he often credits for helping to protect Americans against the virus. He has also said publicly that the Chinese weren’t honest about the effects of the virus. But that travel ban wasn’t accompanied by additional significant steps to prepare for when the virus eventually infected people in the United States in great numbers.

As the disease spread beyond China, U.S. spy agencies tracked outbreaks in Iran, South Korea, Taiwan, Italy and elsewhere in Europe, the officials familiar with those reports said. The majority of the information came from public sources, including news reports and official statements, but a significant portion also came from classified intelligence sources. As new cases popped up, the volume of reporting spiked.

As the first cases of infection were confirmed in the United States, Trump continued to insist that the risk to Americans was small.

“I think the virus is going to be — it’s going to be fine,” he said on Feb. 10.

“We have a very small number of people in the country, right now, with it,” he said four days later. “It’s like around 12. Many of them are getting better. Some are fully recovered already. So we’re in very good shape.”

On Feb. 25, Nancy Messonnier, a senior CDC official, sounded perhaps the most significant public alarm to that point, when she told reporters that the coronavirus was likely to spread within communities in the United States and that disruptions to daily life could be “severe.” Trump called Azar on his way back from a trip to India and complained that Messonnier was scaring the stock markets, according to two senior administration officials.

Trump eventually changed his tone after being shown statistical models about the spread of the virus from other countries and hearing directly from Deborah Birx, the coordinator of the White House coronavirus task force, as well as from chief executives last week rattled by a plunge in the stock market, said people ­familiar with Trump’s conversations.

But by then, the signs pointing to a major outbreak in the United States were everywhere."

Now think about how very long ago January 27 seems. At least there was enough time for Senator Burr to get out of the market. Phew.

[Trinity]

Have we banned incoming Aeroflot flights or is Russian travel still open?

I checked. Of course we’re still open to Russia, where they are building emergency hospitals in days. Flights available today connecting Miami and New York to Moscow.