2020 Elections - Trump FIRED

[jhu72]

72,
I think the story being missed is that ALL of the major offices in KY went R except the Governor, pick any one of those statewide offices. The AG is a black R and a former college football player, good on him in many ways. Unfortunately, he got less national news then the lady representing a county in MD as she flipped off the President's motorcade and lost her job many years ago - I am NOT in favor of that but that is her right. The Governor for years/months has been shooting himself in the foot and has had as we use to say, "hoof and mouth disease". He lost and he needs to concede over his own stupidity IMHO. You all have a whole year to debate this but you are missing, so are news organizations, IMHO the key point of this election in KY, everything came up R except the big one.

How often does anything come up D in KY? It's a ruby red state, right?
Yes, great that a black R AG was elected, sounds like an interesting story, but the story isn't that an R was elected in KY.

Exactly. Those same voters who voted for all Rs in the election, voted for the D in the biggest race. They did this by ignoring Trump's call to vote for that R. Trump made a special visit to help that R who was clearly in trouble. This proves there is a limit to what some in his "base" will do for him. It is not really a surprise that the suburbs went for the D. Doesn't really surprise me the size of the margin there. Rural blue collar workers ignoring Trump's call and voting for the D in surprisingly large numbers should surprise everyone given what is the "common wisdom", that he could kill some one on 5th avenue and get away with it, is clearly not the case.

[jhu72]

Pete looks like a real possibility. I think he'd crush Trump, would be extremely difficult to touch other than with the shrinking base of voters that just hate any Dem.

Sorry, no. If P.Butt is on the ticket, watch out for the tsunami of anti-gay agitprop that will swamp social media. Any gay man (in the states that matter) starts out with a handicap, hard to quantify, but IMO it's at least -5%. And plenty of AAs are social conservatives who will not turn out for a white gay dude.

But if he gets the nomination, I hope he tops his current personal best of 8515 votes received.

I dunno; 10 years ago, probable. 20 no chance at all.
But I think there'd be one heck of a backlash to that sort of thing.

Saw some African American researcher talking head yesterday addressing this issue. The thought that black democrats, church goers would have an outsized problem with mayor Pete's lifestyle. While not their cup of tea, he claimed the numbers show Pete would not have a problem in this regard going up against Trump. He claims that African American voters are among the most pragmatic.

[MDlaxfan76]

72,
I think the story being missed is that ALL of the major offices in KY went R except the Governor, pick any one of those statewide offices. The AG is a black R and a former college football player, good on him in many ways. Unfortunately, he got less national news then the lady representing a county in MD as she flipped off the President's motorcade and lost her job many years ago - I am NOT in favor of that but that is her right. The Governor for years/months has been shooting himself in the foot and has had as we use to say, "hoof and mouth disease". He lost and he needs to concede over his own stupidity IMHO. You all have a whole year to debate this but you are missing, so are news organizations, IMHO the key point of this election in KY, everything came up R except the big one.

Trump carried Mississippi by almost 18% points. The R governor won with 5.5%. What's up with that?

That was then, this is now...happening all over.

[LandM]

Two observations:
1. Trump was not a fan of Bevin's and is on record for that. Most people thought he had no chance at all to be re-elected - those are unfortunately the facts on the ground and they have not changed for at least the past year. The fact that he lost comes as no surprise to most who follow - he shot himself in the foot multiple times and instead of acknowledging and moving on, he kept firing at the same foot. Sorry to use a weapons term;
2. You all keep looking at %'s. Not sure about you all but when I looked at the scoreboard all I cared about was who had the most points. Toughest games were always the teams that had no chance as that was their bowl game.....IMHO, percentage wins/losses mean nothing to me, it is who won the game.

[Typical Lax Dad]

Two observations:
1. Trump was not a fan of Bevin's and is on record for that. Most people thought he had no chance at all to be re-elected - those are unfortunately the facts on the ground and they have not changed for at least the past year. The fact that he lost comes as no surprise to most who follow - he shot himself in the foot multiple times and instead of acknowledging and moving on, he kept firing at the same foot. Sorry to use a weapons term;
2. You all keep looking at %'s. Not sure about you all but when I looked at the scoreboard all I cared about was who had the most points. Toughest games were always the teams that had no chance as that was their bowl game.....IMHO, percentage wins/losses mean nothing to me, it is who won the game.

My brother lives in Lexington. He told me three months ago that the support for Trump therebis not what it was. Next door neighbor told him in September she isn’t sending anymore money to the Trump campaign....an Old Kentucky Native. Just one of those conversations as my brother doesn’t really care much about politics. Northern Ky going Blue could foreshadow problems in Ohio. Time will tell. I worked in that market for a few years.

[ggait]

https://www.kff.org/other/report/blue-w ... s-project/

In depth polling from the Blue Wall states (PA, MI, WI, MN). Pretty interesting read. A few tidbits:

Trump's approve/disapprove numbers: 25% strong approve; 16% somewhat approve; 9% somewhat disapprove; 50% strong disapprove.

Top reason to vote. 21% (and 40% of Dems) say to defeat Trump; 8% (and 20% of Reps) say re-elect Trump/prevent Dems from winning. 20% of Indies say defeat Trump; 7% say re-elect Trump/defeat Dems. I'll keep saying it -- there really are no independents -- Indies are just Dems or Reps once you scratch the surface.

Top issues: economy (Trump +1) and health care (Trump -21).

Dems evenly split between beat Trump and share my views. Also evenly split between bold change vs. moderate change.

64% of Dems more motivated to vote in 2020 vs. 2016. 53% of Reps more motivated. Turnout is going to break records.

[MDlaxfan76]

Two observations:
1. Trump was not a fan of Bevin's and is on record for that. Most people thought he had no chance at all to be re-elected - those are unfortunately the facts on the ground and they have not changed for at least the past year. The fact that he lost comes as no surprise to most who follow - he shot himself in the foot multiple times and instead of acknowledging and moving on, he kept firing at the same foot. Sorry to use a weapons term;
2. You all keep looking at %'s. Not sure about you all but when I looked at the scoreboard all I cared about was who had the most points. Toughest games were always the teams that had no chance as that was their bowl game.....IMHO, percentage wins/losses mean nothing to me, it is who won the game.

Interesting first point, wasn't aware that Trump didn't support Bevin. Which part of Bevin's policy choices did Trump not support? The refusal to accept Medicaid aid from the feds? Or the attack on the teachers' union? Maybe I'm missing something (I don't live there and haven't done a deep dive), but Bevin sounds quite ideologically aligned with Trumpism. How did he fall short? Certainly it wasn't that he wasn't an outspoken Trump supporter, heck that's what he chose to campaign on.

On second point, I dunno what you're even talking about.
Did the GOP pick up a bunch of seats or governorships and I'm just not watching the right media sources?
Or did they lose more than they gained?

[Trinity]

Bloomberg is in. Files in Alabama. If he wants.

[foreverlax]

Bloomberg is in. Files in Alabama. If he wants.

Here we goooo! Better be as a Dem!!

[jhu72]

Two observations:
1. Trump was not a fan of Bevin's and is on record for that. Most people thought he had no chance at all to be re-elected - those are unfortunately the facts on the ground and they have not changed for at least the past year. The fact that he lost comes as no surprise to most who follow - he shot himself in the foot multiple times and instead of acknowledging and moving on, he kept firing at the same foot. Sorry to use a weapons term;
2. You all keep looking at %'s. Not sure about you all but when I looked at the scoreboard all I cared about was who had the most points. Toughest games were always the teams that had no chance as that was their bowl game.....IMHO, percentage wins/losses mean nothing to me, it is who won the game.

Interesting first point, wasn't aware that Trump didn't support Bevin. Which part of Bevin's policy choices did Trump not support? The refusal to accept Medicaid aid from the feds? Or the attack on the teachers' union? Maybe I'm missing something (I don't live there and haven't done a deep dive), but Bevin sounds quite ideologically aligned with Trumpism. How did he fall short? Certainly it wasn't that he wasn't an outspoken Trump supporter, heck that's what he chose to campaign on.

On second point, I dunno what you're even talking about.
Did the GOP pick up a bunch of seats or governorships and I'm just not watching the right media sources?
Or did they lose more than they gained?

Trump doesn't like being associated with losers.

[Bandito]

Two observations:
1. Trump was not a fan of Bevin's and is on record for that. Most people thought he had no chance at all to be re-elected - those are unfortunately the facts on the ground and they have not changed for at least the past year. The fact that he lost comes as no surprise to most who follow - he shot himself in the foot multiple times and instead of acknowledging and moving on, he kept firing at the same foot. Sorry to use a weapons term;
2. You all keep looking at %'s. Not sure about you all but when I looked at the scoreboard all I cared about was who had the most points. Toughest games were always the teams that had no chance as that was their bowl game.....IMHO, percentage wins/losses mean nothing to me, it is who won the game.

My brother lives in Lexington. He told me three months ago that the support for Trump therebis not what it was. Next door neighbor told him in September she isn’t sending anymore money to the Trump campaign....an Old Kentucky Native. Just one of those conversations as my brother doesn’t really care much about politics. Northern Ky going Blue could foreshadow problems in Ohio. Time will tell. I worked in that market for a few years.

Lol. I’ll take “Lies that TLD tells himself for 500 Alex”. The Kentucky election the other day proves the opposite of what you are saying. Bevin was a horrible candidate. Trump brought him back from 17 or so points down to a 5K difference in vote. Republicans won every other election. Keep lying to yourself. A black Republican was voted in as attorney general and won by over 200,000 votes. Evidence shows Bevin was a trash candidate who was greatly helped by Trumps rally.

[Typical Lax Dad]

Two observations:
1. Trump was not a fan of Bevin's and is on record for that. Most people thought he had no chance at all to be re-elected - those are unfortunately the facts on the ground and they have not changed for at least the past year. The fact that he lost comes as no surprise to most who follow - he shot himself in the foot multiple times and instead of acknowledging and moving on, he kept firing at the same foot. Sorry to use a weapons term;
2. You all keep looking at %'s. Not sure about you all but when I looked at the scoreboard all I cared about was who had the most points. Toughest games were always the teams that had no chance as that was their bowl game.....IMHO, percentage wins/losses mean nothing to me, it is who won the game.

My brother lives in Lexington. He told me three months ago that the support for Trump therebis not what it was. Next door neighbor told him in September she isn’t sending anymore money to the Trump campaign....an Old Kentucky Native. Just one of those conversations as my brother doesn’t really care much about politics. Northern Ky going Blue could foreshadow problems in Ohio. Time will tell. I worked in that market for a few years.

Lol. I’ll take “Lies that TLD tells himself for 500 Alex”. The Kentucky election the other day proves the opposite of what you are saying. Bevin was a horrible candidate. Trump brought him back from 17 or so points down to a 5K difference in vote. Republicans won every other election. Keep lying to yourself. A black Republican was voted in as attorney general and won by over 200,000 votes. Evidence shows Bevin was a trash candidate who was greatly helped by Trumps rally.

Hi Manuelito. How is Jellystone National Park these days?

[Typical Lax Dad]

With Bloomberg entering the race, let’s see how many folks that “supported Trump because he was a business man” turn their support to Bloomberg here. You know since it was ALL ABOUT getting a businessman in office.....

[jhu72]

With Bloomberg entering the race, let’s see how many folks that “supported Trump because he was a business man” turn their support to Bloomberg here. You know since it was ALL ABOUT getting a businessman in office.....

… difference is, Bloomberg is actually a real businessman with real billions of dollars.

[jhu72]

https://www.kff.org/other/report/blue-w ... s-project/

In depth polling from the Blue Wall states (PA, MI, WI, MN). Pretty interesting read. A few tidbits:

Trump's approve/disapprove numbers: 25% strong approve; 16% somewhat approve; 9% somewhat disapprove; 50% strong disapprove.

Top reason to vote. 21% (and 40% of Dems) say to defeat Trump; 8% (and 20% of Reps) say re-elect Trump/prevent Dems from winning. 20% of Indies say defeat Trump; 7% say re-elect Trump/defeat Dems. I'll keep saying it -- there really are no independents -- Indies are just Dems or Reps once you scratch the surface.

Top issues: economy (Trump +1) and health care (Trump -21).

Dems evenly split between beat Trump and share my views. Also evenly split between bold change vs. moderate change.

64% of Dems more motivated to vote in 2020 vs. 2016. 53% of Reps more motivated. Turnout is going to break records.

Another take on the Charlie Cook poll/report.

WaPo Take

[LandM]

MD,
Bevins may have had an R next to his name but it was reported that Trump was not a supporter and that he would have a difficult time being re-elected. The guy by all accounts in multiple news organizations was a disaster waiting to happen;
My second point is who cares what % someone gets or how he had 35% approval and that is down to 5% as long as they win, who cares. Folks keep reading too much into how he did and what % he won running for President. EVERY President has had a downswing - nature of the business - but if you win the election, who cares by what % or how he supposedly did verse current ratio's - too much analytics will stifle decisions and lead to paralysis.

TLD - do NOT equate me with Bandito with your Jellystone comment - I am back in Canandaigua - boating and looking for a good game this weekend. Thank you.

The hail Mary Bloomberg pass is not gonna work - he is unfortunately a retread just like all the rest - new bodies and blood.

[cradleandshoot]

MD,
Bevins may have had an R next to his name but it was reported that Trump was not a supporter and that he would have a difficult time being re-elected. The guy by all accounts in multiple news organizations was a disaster waiting to happen;
My second point is who cares what % someone gets or how he had 35% approval and that is down to 5% as long as they win, who cares. Folks keep reading too much into how he did and what % he won running for President. EVERY President has had a downswing - nature of the business - but if you win the election, who cares by what % or how he supposedly did verse current ratio's - too much analytics will stifle decisions and lead to paralysis.

TLD - do NOT equate me with Bandito with your Jellystone comment - I am back in Canandaigua - boating and looking for a good game this weekend. Thank you.

The hail Mary Bloomberg pass is not gonna work - he is unfortunately a retread just like all the rest - new bodies and blood.

Seriously, we had 3 inches of snow in Rochester last night and you plan on boating? You sir are hard core. I would boat as far as Nolans and hunker down behind a nice Reuben sandwich.

[Typical Lax Dad]

MD,
Bevins may have had an R next to his name but it was reported that Trump was not a supporter and that he would have a difficult time being re-elected. The guy by all accounts in multiple news organizations was a disaster waiting to happen;
My second point is who cares what % someone gets or how he had 35% approval and that is down to 5% as long as they win, who cares. Folks keep reading too much into how he did and what % he won running for President. EVERY President has had a downswing - nature of the business - but if you win the election, who cares by what % or how he supposedly did verse current ratio's - too much analytics will stifle decisions and lead to paralysis.

TLD - do NOT equate me with Bandito with your Jellystone comment - I am back in Canandaigua - boating and looking for a good game this weekend. Thank you.

The hail Mary Bloomberg pass is not gonna work - he is unfortunately a retread just like all the rest - new bodies and blood.

I thought I replied to Bandito. If I caught your thread, it was a mistake. I believe he mentioned he was from West Jellystone. My reply to you was about my brother’s community in Lexington, Ky. and the attitude change toward Trump. You may have mixed up the two replies.

[MDlaxfan76]

MD,
Bevins may have had an R next to his name but it was reported that Trump was not a supporter and that he would have a difficult time being re-elected. The guy by all accounts in multiple news organizations was a disaster waiting to happen;
My second point is who cares what % someone gets or how he had 35% approval and that is down to 5% as long as they win, who cares. Folks keep reading too much into how he did and what % he won running for President. EVERY President has had a downswing - nature of the business - but if you win the election, who cares by what % or how he supposedly did verse current ratio's - too much analytics will stifle decisions and lead to paralysis.

TLD - do NOT equate me with Bandito with your Jellystone comment - I am back in Canandaigua - boating and looking for a good game this weekend. Thank you.

The hail Mary Bloomberg pass is not gonna work - he is unfortunately a retread just like all the rest - new bodies and blood.

Very sure that TLD was not referencing you, LandM, just our resident troll.
Gonna get cold on the lake this weekend? I'm supposed to be up in NYC for D Lacrosse Friends meeting and 'tailgate' at a bar with 200 lax folks, before the Dartmouth-Princeton football game...need to bring some cold weather gear!

I dunno about Trump not supporting Bevin. All of his policies, as well as his style, were aligned with Trump's, and he ran on anti-impeachment, nationalizing the election. But yes, his being a jerk, and the hard right ideological positions he took (rejection of Medicaid, incendiary anti-immigrant, anti-public education) had him at a quite unpopular position, pre campaign. A definite risk to lose. But he was reportedly actually still ahead in the polls in that ruby red state a week before the election...and Trump came in, endorsing the nationalization aspects of the Bevin campaign. Maybe it was already very close before Trump, but on the scoreboard, Bevin-Trump lost.

Most other R's avoided that nationalization and the hard right ideology. And weren't jerks. So, they won in their ruby red areas.

I quite agree that what matters is the final score on the scoreboard...but that's in 2020. This past week the Dems won the scoreboard big. Just as they won historically big in 2018.

So, we examine the 'why', where are Dems winning and why is that? How does that portend 2020 results?
I'd argue that specific sets of voters have been turned off by various aspects of Trumpism, even in ruby red states, if given a moderate D to support instead. However, probably not enough in most of those to overcome the ruby red aspect. But plenty to win back the purple lost narrowly last time.

That is, as long as the binary choice doesn't have the same dynamics present in 2016.

[foreverlax]

MD,
Bevins may have had an R next to his name but it was reported that Trump was not a supporter and that he would have a difficult time being re-elected. The guy by all accounts in multiple news organizations was a disaster waiting to happen;
My second point is who cares what % someone gets or how he had 35% approval and that is down to 5% as long as they win, who cares. Folks keep reading too much into how he did and what % he won running for President. EVERY President has had a downswing - nature of the business - but if you win the election, who cares by what % or how he supposedly did verse current ratio's - too much analytics will stifle decisions and lead to paralysis.

TLD - do NOT equate me with Bandito with your Jellystone comment - I am back in Canandaigua - boating and looking for a good game this weekend. Thank you.

The hail Mary Bloomberg pass is not gonna work - he is unfortunately a retread just like all the rest - new bodies and blood.

I thought I replied to Bandidiot. If I caught your thread, it was a mistake. I believe he mentioned he was from West Jellystone.

It's either reading comprehension or paper thin skin.