tech37 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 28, 2023 2:58 pm
a fan wrote: ↑Wed Jun 28, 2023 2:53 pm
Trump gave Putin the green light to invade. Still, Putin did nothing.
Trump sent lethal arms to Ukraine. How is that a green light?
You're probably right, those few Stingers were a big red light. And Trump obviously was telling Putin to back off in those private meetings he had with him, no note takers for the US side...of course. He's a tough guy, America First.
So, obviously in private he was a tough guy with Putin, while in public he praised him, said in front of him that he believed Putin over his own US intelligence people, including those he appointed.
I don't agree with a fan that the few arms we provided to Ukraine, whether under Trump or Biden, precipitated Putin's thinking that an invasion would be successful, easily, but much harder if he waited, and so Ukraine should not have been supported.
But I do think that under Trump, Putin was thinking that he could achieve his objectives of a greatly weakened and fractured NATO without a direct invasion and likewise that Trump would help him undermine the legitimacy and support for democracy in Ukraine so that he could re-install a puppet instead of Zelensky.
That calculus
did change with Biden's election and it was pretty apparent quickly that the Biden admin would bring the NATO states back into alignment and mutual commitment. But that was still in early stages.
It was also clear that the Zelensky government was making progress with corruption reforms, was standing tough in the eastern fighting against the Russian backed and armed "separatists", so it wasn't likely to fall apart.
The trajectory of Ukraine was strengthening its ties with the West and democracy, and that was understood (As Salty tells us), as contrary to Putin's and the Russian "nationalist" right's views of Russian destiny.
So, better sooner than later as there was nothing on the horizon for Putin to think would make his ambitions more likely otherwise.
I don't think Biden's overruling his military advisors in making a firm decision to leave Afghanistan, as previously promised by Trump, factored at all into the decision to invade Ukraine. Biden's resolve on that matter would have been seen by Putin as an exercise of control by the American leader, uncowed by military. That's the Russian mindset. Control and power.
That said, Putin has long believed that the West is feckless and "morally weak", and, moreover, would not only be scared to put their own lives on the line for Ukraine, but also that they would be afraid of the economic effects of trying to sanction Russia in response. Too dependent on Russian energy, etc.
Correct on the first, but big miscalculation on the second.
And of course the miscalculation that the Russian military would swiftly take Kyiv and the war would be over before the West could do anything about it.
However, the Biden Admin sussed out the coming attack and decided to loudly warn the world of the coming invasion, sharing their intelligence with allies.
In response, Putin lied to the world about his intentions, expecting that the "surprise" attack would make objections swiftly moot.
Trump called it "genius".
He was wrong.