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Re: All things COVID-19
Posted: Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:00 pm
by RedFromMI
- ETlHz3oXQAAHTJL.jpg (96.62 KiB) Viewed 1871 times
Normalized curves to see the progression of the pandemic by country. Note the bent curves of Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan, and South Korea.
And sadly the lack of curve bending for the US so far...
Pic was made early afternoon today...
Re: All things COVID-19
Posted: Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:06 pm
by RedFromMI
From Twitter: (quoting VP Pence's office press secretary):
“This evening we were notified that a member of the Office of the Vice President tested positive for the Coronavirus. Neither President Trump nor Vice President Pence had close contact with the individual...(1/2)
Further contact tracing
is being conducted in accordance with CDC guidelines.”
Further story from The Hill:
https://thehill.com/homenews/administra ... oronavirus
Re: All things COVID-19
Posted: Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:16 pm
by DocBarrister
RedFromMI wrote: ↑Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:00 pm
ETlHz3oXQAAHTJL.jpg
Normalized curves to see the progression of the pandemic by country. Note the bent curves of Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan, and South Korea.
And sadly not the lack of curve bending for the US so far...
Pic was made early afternoon today...
The United States is on a path to surpass China in overall cases. Over 19,000 cases now. We are in serious trouble.
DocBarrister
Re: All things COVID-19
Posted: Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:43 pm
by youthathletics
DocBarrister wrote: ↑Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:16 pm
RedFromMI wrote: ↑Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:00 pm
ETlHz3oXQAAHTJL.jpg
Normalized curves to see the progression of the pandemic by country. Note the bent curves of Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan, and South Korea.
And sadly not the lack of curve bending for the US so far...
Pic was made early afternoon today...
The United States is on a path to surpass China in overall cases. Over 19,000 cases now. We are in serious trouble.
DocBarrister
I thought you did not believe China stats....now you do??
Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus
Posted: Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:10 pm
by Cooter
This site
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Has the active cases at 18,984 with only 64 as serious or critical.
This low number of serious or critical cases indicates that we should end the lockdown.
Deaths are up to 256.
Re: All things COVID-19
Posted: Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:31 pm
by RedFromMI
Look farther down the page and find the total number of cases in the US. Still exponential growth. You are deluding yourself.
Switch the view to log plot. Straight line=exponential. The threat is GROWING
Re: All things CoronaVirus
Posted: Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:36 pm
by DocBarrister
Your lack of understanding is truly astounding.
You do understand that if we don’t take these extraordinary measures, then coronavirus could infect as many people as the “common” flu. That is AT LEAST 15 million people, and up to 60 million people or more. Extrapolate the numbers above and you get for the OPTIMISTIC scenario:
15 million infected
202,105 dead
If coronavirus acts like a “bad” flu season or H1N1, then the extrapolated numbers look like this:
60 million infected
808,421 dead
In other words, your lack of shock at the current coronavirus numbers merely reflects your lack of understanding.
Those numbers you cite in your post are DEVASTATINGLY HORRIBLE, far beyond ordinary flu and H1N1. For comparison, “ordinary” flu kills 12,000-61,000 Americans each year.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html
With coronavirus, we’re talking about 200,000 to 800,000 potential deaths.
Unless you find hundreds of thousands of deaths acceptable, then I would respectfully suggest you stop recommending the end of the lockdown. You clearly don’t understand the numbers you are reading.
DocBarrister
Re: All things COVID-19
Posted: Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:37 pm
by Cooter
RedFromMI wrote: ↑Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:31 pm
Look farther down the page and find the total number of cases in the US. Still exponential growth. You are deluding yourself.
Switch the view to log plot. Straight line=exponential. The threat is GROWING
So far, the coronavirus in the US is not causing enough serious or critical cases.
Re: All things COVID-19
Posted: Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:44 pm
by Typical Lax Dad
Cooter wrote: ↑Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:37 pm
RedFromMI wrote: ↑Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:31 pm
Look farther down the page and find the total number of cases in the US. Still exponential growth. You are deluding yourself.
Switch the view to log plot. Straight line=exponential. The threat is GROWING
So far, the coronavirus in the US is not causing enough serious or critical cases.
When that slope flattens out, we can get back to some sense of normal. That is not a good trend line. It’s going to get worse before it gets better.
Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus
Posted: Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:46 pm
by calourie
I would venture that what you surmise the trends indicate is going to look like a misinterpretation of the data quite soon unless the virus is considerably less virulent than is touted. The rate of increase in our cases, which is now only behind Italy, combined with our lack of testing and therefore identifying and isolating, would suggest that the number of critical cases and death will rise dramatically within the next week or two. This is not my hope, 6ft. and Youth (and perhaps Cooter), but my analysis based on the numbers, and a considerable amount of the information that his been distributed about the disease that doesn't appear to be "fake" news. China and South Korea and perhaps Germany (judging from the nimbers) have seemingly dealt with the problem in differing yet effective ways. I don't know why the mortality rate in Germany has so far set the standard for survival, but we do know that China took a draconian isolation regimen, and South Korea a test and isolate approach to stem the spread of the virus. We are only at the beginning of ramping up our response, and seem to be doing it in a somewhat state by state piecemeal way, which would suggest caution in assuming we have this thing under control enough to end whatever lockdowns have been implemented.
Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus
Posted: Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:50 pm
by Jim Malone
New York Hospitals already having trouble with number of patients. Not enough beds. And, this is just the start.
Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus
Posted: Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:54 pm
by DocBarrister
Jim Malone wrote: ↑Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:50 pm
New York Hospitals already having trouble with number of patients. Not enough beds. And, this is just the start.
In addition, many medical centers are already low on basic personal protective equipment. The pandemic is just starting in the U.S. and our health care system is already struggling.
And some of you want to end the lockdown?!?!?
DocBarrister
Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus
Posted: Fri Mar 20, 2020 9:00 pm
by ardilla secreta
Compared to downstate, places in WNY have modest positives. However, in Erie County NY it’s easier to name a successful Trump enterprise than get a CV test.
Re: All things COVID-19
Posted: Fri Mar 20, 2020 9:00 pm
by RedFromMI
Cooter wrote: ↑Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:37 pm
RedFromMI wrote: ↑Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:31 pm
Look farther down the page and find the total number of cases in the US. Still exponential growth. You are deluding yourself.
Switch the view to log plot. Straight line=exponential. The threat is GROWING
So far, the coronavirus in the US is not causing enough serious or critical cases.
And you trust that serious/critical number? And that it is going down even if true while the total number of cases skyrockets?
You clearly don’t understand either the data or the threat. And the actions you recommend would only make the situation far worse.
NY state alone has ten times the cases today as it did at the beginning of the week. And you are dreaming if you think this is a true lockdown...
Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus
Posted: Fri Mar 20, 2020 9:04 pm
by youthathletics
My optimistic view....and based on all the crazy things that have happened with testing, lack of test kits, and their accuracy early on, I’d expect the cases of the virus to rise and the deaths rate not go up in the same proportion as it has been. We are seeing a decline in death rate in the US, as more tests are coming in. sure the deaths may lag, I’m not overlooking that.
I also wonder if the death counts are 100% accurate for COVID19 or could they also be a result of existing flu/pneumonia. Can COVID19 be confirmed postmortem?
Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus
Posted: Fri Mar 20, 2020 9:07 pm
by RedFromMI
More info on the current government incompetence:
National Security U.S. intelligence reports from January and February warned about a likely pandemic
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nationa ... story.html
U.S. intelligence agencies were issuing ominous, classified warnings in January and February about the global danger posed by the coronavirus while President Trump and lawmakers played down the threat and failed to take action that might have slowed the spread of the pathogen, according to U.S. officials familiar with spy agency reporting.
The intelligence reports didn’t predict when the virus might land on U.S. shores or recommend particular steps that public health officials should take, issues outside the purview of the intelligence agencies. But they did track the spread of the virus in China, and later in other countries, and warned that Chinese officials appeared to be minimizing the severity of the outbreak.
Taken together, the reports and warnings painted an early picture of a virus that showed the characteristics of a globe-encircling pandemic that could require governments to take swift actions to contain it. But despite that constant flow of reporting, Trump continued publicly and privately to play down the threat the virus posed to Americans. Lawmakers, too, did not grapple with the virus in earnest until this month, as officials scrambled to keep citizens in their homes and hospitals braced for a surge in patients suffering from covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus.
And Burr as part of the intel committee would have heard all of this...
Re: All things COVID-19
Posted: Fri Mar 20, 2020 9:11 pm
by RedFromMI
youthathletics wrote: ↑Fri Mar 20, 2020 9:04 pm
My optimistic view....and based on all the crazy things that have happened with testing, lack of test kits, and their accuracy early on, I’d expect the cases of the virus to rise and the deaths rate not go up in the same proportion as it has been. We are seeing a decline in death rate in the US, as more tests are coming in. sure the deaths may lag, I’m not overlooking that.
I also wonder if the death counts are 100% accurate for COVID19 or could they also be a result of existing flu/pneumonia. Can COVID19 be confirmed postmortem?
There is a CDC page that tells morgues how to safely collect post mortem specimens to send to them, so it appears to be yes. Of course that does not say they would be collected. But presumably they would have tested for other things like flu or pneumonia so would have some idea of whether to expect Coronavirus to be a good possibility.
Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus
Posted: Fri Mar 20, 2020 9:19 pm
by ardilla secreta
We have smart states and dumbass states. Unfortunately, we have an ununited states that’s allowing the spread. If a national enemy were invading the US there would hopefully be a strategic plan led by the president. So, why doesn’t the president shut down the USA instead of waiting for the backward states to take it for real? They are literally killing us.
Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus
Posted: Fri Mar 20, 2020 9:38 pm
by Trinity
The system was blinking red. Trump backed up his boy Xi.
Re: All things COVID-19
Posted: Fri Mar 20, 2020 9:50 pm
by Cooter
RedFromMI wrote: ↑Fri Mar 20, 2020 9:00 pm
And you trust that serious/critical number? And that it is going down even if true while the total number of cases skyrockets?
Given the lack of testing, it would be my belief that the total number of cases is much higher than listed already.