njbill wrote: ↑Mon Jan 25, 2021 1:28 am
wgdsr wrote: ↑Sun Jan 24, 2021 8:38 pm
njbill wrote: ↑Sun Jan 24, 2021 8:16 pm
What is your obsession with NJ? You don't live here, right?
Why won't you identify the state you live in? Are you in the witness protection program?
![Laughing :lol:](./images/smilies/icon_lol.gif)
Fair is fair. Let me take some potshots at your state.
be my guest.
Did a little research and figured it out. Had forgotten. No potshots. Will leave that to you.
Not sure why you threw out a "demand" figure of 150-200 million. The actual number of +65s, etc. is way, way below that. No state currently is opening up vaccinations to everyone under age 65. The current demand is no more than tens of millions of people (double, of course, for shots).
not one state has kept the applications to over 65. I think you misread what I said, which was "no state currently is opening up vaccinations to everyone under age 65." I didn't say states are not vaccinating anyone under 65. Of course they are. Healthcare workers, etc. The reference was to current demand, which is those currently eligible (hence +65s, etc.). That group in no way totals 150-200 million, which is 60% of the U.S. population. it's higher than the daily supply, right? i am assuming you are with me on the point intended. let me know if you're not, i'll use different numbers? Your 150-200 m. figure is demonstrably wrong so no need to waste time on it.
All I know is that the prior administration did not do everything it could to manufacture as much supply as humanly possible starting last summer. They didn't invoke the DPA, they didn't strike enough mega-deals, they didn't crack the whip on manufacturers to go 24/7, expand/add facilities six to eight months ago. That is really beyond dispute at this point as I and others have demonstrated on this forum. If you prefer, wait to see what the Covid Commission report says. I know where I'll put my money.
Lack of supply is a nation-wide problem. Look at yesterday's WaPo article. Maybe some states aren't yet fully up to speed in administering vaccinations, but it seems many are. Look at reports out of NY.
I'm focusing on NJ because I live here and hope to get vaccinated here. Plus I have lots of friends and family here whom I'd like to see get vaccinated ASAP.
I don't know where you get your numbers on daily doses delivered (you attached a link Friday (I think) that shows total delivered but I don't see anything that breaks that down by day). But what you say seems to be contradicted by the governor. Today, in a national TV interview he said 100,000+ (didn't quantify the "plus") per week (let's say 165,000 based on six weeks (NJ first doses were on Dec. 15) and 989,000 total per your site). Murphy specifically said we could use (by that I'm sure he means administer) two to three times that.
go to the new jersey dept of health. they have at least weekly updates.Well familiar with that site. Look at it several times a day. On the list to get email updates from them, several of which are sent each week.
Even if NJ got 200,000 doses per week, that is still fewer than NJ is currently putting into arms (about 250,000). BTW, are you aware that the six mega sites have only been open a little more than one week? Administration capability is dramatically higher now than it was even two weeks ago.
Also, you understand that at the pace of administration last week (about 250,000) 450,000 doses is less than a two week supply? Not sure why you keep ignoring the point that you don't want to zero out everyday, and that you need to have a bit of supply on hand. You must have never worked in retail.
Murphy's complaints today aren't new. He has been complaining about lack of supply in NJ since last month.
https://patch.com/new-jersey/lacey/gov- ... -apologize
I am by no means a Murphy apologist in terms of his handling of Covid. He's done some good things, but a lot of bad things as well. But in terms of administering vaccines, so far I think he's done a decent job with the hand he has been dealt. Believe me, if I thought he was dropping the ball, I would be the first (even before you) to criticize him because it affects me personally. But he isn't.
If by "cohorts" you mean those eligible to be vaccinated, I would agree that the states have been too aggressive in expanding groupings. And that is counter to my own interest because I am being benefited by NJ's expanding to 65s. But NJ doesn't have sufficient supply to administer to the 65s right now. That's obvious as demonstrated by the chaotic appointment situation. They should have started, say, with 80s, then 75s, then 70s before going to 65s. This is probably the biggest current problem nationwide: not enough supply to meet +65 demand. But the lack of supply is the fault of T****.
Mega sites are good, but the best delivery system is local drug stores. Local doctors' offices would be great, too, but that seems a bridge too far at this point. But drug stores have a built in delivery system of their own. Get chunks of doses to, say, CVS, then let CVS distribute to each of their stores. A complication here is that that would only work for Moderna since local stores don't have the super freezers. In NJ we are not getting enough supply to deliver to drug stores. That's a simple fact which is a major road block.
Second shot appointments are a major, major concern in NJ. Article in one of the local papers today that someone who got his first shot at one of the mega sites was simply told to go out and register for the second one on his own. Yeah, right. Try and get an appointment, even within the newly expanded window. I am going to go over to my mega site this week and try to find out the specifics of getting appointments for second shots. (I know, sounds greedy, when many haven't gotten their first appointment.) Maybe they will blow me off, but I'm gonna try.
i gave you a link and you don't want to track it.
Ah, bait and switch. Now you say I have to track it. Sure you can get daily deliveries if you go on the site every day and compare the total from one day to the next day. Big whoop. Thanks for finally conceding the site doesn't provide the number of daily doses delivered. Anyway, I have the info I need on NJ doses. My trust in your numbers took a decided nose dive when I discovered that your daily doses administered numbers were wrong, which I pointed out to you a couple of days ago. so i may just be done discussing numbers with you about new jersey.
Sounds like a good idea. At first I thought you had valuable info. After looking at what you've had to say, and debating it with you a bit, I see that isn't really true. No value added. You just like to argue. Nothing inherently wrong with that. I do, too. We all do on this forum. It's a required box you have to check when you sign up.
i have said a buffer is fine and of course is expected.
Yet you go on and on criticizing NJ for holding onto and not using their buffer.
weren't you one of the guys that said we shouldn't be saving shots for second doses?
Nope. cdc just gave you a 42.day window, too.
You heard if from me first. You're welcome.
here ya go.... there are millions of people in new jersey that want shots, and millions won't be made available tomorrow. so it's a supply problem.
good luck to new jersey!
things sure were getting chippy there! certainly i should take my fair share of the blame and then some. so i thought a break would be good, and a read back a week later, 7 day average.
here is the bloomberg link tracking:
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covi ... tribution/
when i first posted about the total last friday night, jersey had listed as: "new jersey has been given 951,875 doses and administered 490,677."
their totals 7 days later are: 1,230,839 doses and administered 727,426.
so over a 7 day span, they received 278,964 (39,852 per day) and administered 236,749 (33,821 per day). their inventory grew from 461,198 to 503,413.
here is the dashboard for nj where you can get some granular info, you may be familiar with it:
https://covid19.nj.gov/index.html
click <vaccination overview> and then <vaccination doses over time> if you want to look at daily doses administered.
the previous week, they had given out 182,240 (26,034 per day). so this week, like a lot of the country, it had continued to get much better. just like previous weeks. i suspect when you look back a week from now on their full week numbers (sat to friday) it will either bump up slightly or bump down. the data is very noisy with a 2 day lag, and then there is lag that sometimes isn't reported for multiple days or weeks. but this last week's shouldn't change much either way.
anyway, they have been getting 40,000 doses per day for the last 3 weeks. 280,000 per week.
https://www.state.nj.us/health/cd/topic ... tion.shtml
dating back to the jan 8 vax matters newsletter when they had 175k doses administered, they had been delivered 390k something at that time.
what is evident by now (to me) is that new jersey has been taking delivery and administration with the idea that they are holding 2nd doses for people. that's likely a distrust of the deliveries ahead for any number of reasons, not the least of which was poor and changing communication and guidance.
what i was trying to suggest, if crudely, is that now that both the trump and biden administration have now both gone on record to say getting shots to people as quickly as possible as they have faith in the supply channel... that nj (and other states) focus on how they can execute on that. that was first communicated jan 10 or 12. and supply has run in the 1.5 - 1.7 million per day range since.
how can jersey do it, by the numbers? now that second shots on a daily basis will be the norm, they should factor those in (knowable) and then set appointments based on getting their buffer down to what they are 99% sure they can execute in distribution from time of delivery. to me, that number is maybe a week from delivery (maybe it's 6 days, maybe it's 8). 48 hours to figure out where it's going and communicate to sites, 2-3 days to load and get it there, a day or 2 for hangups. the states can fill in any extra slots with 5 days notice. the biden admin last week also promised to squeeze out of moderna an pfizer their expected delivery schedule 2-3 weeks out, and promised to communicate to the states. if the latter is true, they may even be able to distribute efficiently in like 5 days.
smoothed out, what does that look like daily 2-3 weeks from now?
40,000 doses received
26,000 for second doses
20,000 - 24,000 for first doses
that's 46,000 - 50,000 doses administered per day, 6,000-10,000 per day chips into the buffer/inventory. now that they have the buffer/inventory and have been given assurances on supply, they can use the situation wisely. as you say, they have the infrastructure.
what's expected last i heard for supply?
giroir said we'd get 50 million by the end of january. we did. glad we finally hit a mark. we started at about 12 million, so 38 million+ delivered in a 31 day month. giroir also said expect another 50 million for feb. that's 1.785 million per day in a 28 day month. that's 45,750 for new jersey per day.
joe just said he expects a 20% bump soon (this week?). don't know how accurate that is, but let's say it may be. so that may be another 10% on top of the 1.785 million per day figure. and then maybe a possible run rate of 51-55k per day for new jersey to administer for the month.
good luck to new jersey!