LaxPower Back-Up Stick

youthathletics wrote: ↑Mon Feb 24, 2020 6:19 pm

a fan wrote: ↑Mon Feb 24, 2020 6:02 pm

youthathletics wrote: ↑Mon Feb 24, 2020 2:26 pm We'll just raise taxes and take from the wealthy when the time comes.....problem solved. Just follow Bernies Tax Plan: https://www.bernietax.com/?fbclid=IwAR3 ... eCUM#0;0;s

Bernie's been in Congress.....you know, the guys who write our tax laws.....since 1991.

Shockingly, taxes on the rich went down every year Bernie was in office.

So what would possibly make you think this would change if Bernie managed to get elected President?

Go plug in your numbers in his online calculator and get back to us. You know full well Bernie has been a deadbeat in congress. I suppose your argument, is simply that Bernie is playing everyone.

Plugged mine in and we'd save a little bit. Apparently we'd have to make $543k per year to see a decrease in disposable income. If we brought in $1M we'd only be paying $33k more in taxes under his plan. But I have a pretty damn good accountant so who actually knows.

I certainly wouldn't mind that for healthier, more educated and more productive Americans. The long term savings and benefits would be greater too - fewer people on welfare, showing up to emergency rooms for routine stuff because they don't have insurance.

Few people like to think long-term when it comes to this stuff.

youthathletics wrote: ↑Mon Feb 24, 2020 6:19 pm Go plug in your numbers in his online calculator and get back to us.

Thanks to Holmes, as I didn't know what calculator you meant.

Dude. I'm an employer. Take a wild guess as to whether or not I'd be ahead of the game under Bernie's plan?

Hint: right now, I'm on the hook for my employee's health care. Do you REALLY think I care if I personally have to pay a little more in taxes if I get that money back several times over because I'm not paying for my employee's health care anymore?

It's not a close call.

But as I said before, this is irrelevant, because we're never getting this.

foreverlax wrote: ↑Mon Feb 24, 2020 1:20 pm

Peter Brown wrote: ↑Fri Jan 31, 2020 2:29 pm

I am no market expert, but today;'s action I believe is about the China virus...which imo is overblown. The flu alone kills way more.

contra-indicator

I didn't see the orig post but of course anytime anyone "blames" a market move on any one even or incident they are wrong. Hence the term market. Information is fairly perfect, price discovery is always moving, no static equilibrium exists.

But I've seen these comments before. Not right or thoughtful. Stuff that sells WSJ but not what actually explains anything happening in a market.

Farfromgeneva wrote: ↑Wed Feb 26, 2020 11:14 am

foreverlax wrote: ↑Mon Feb 24, 2020 1:20 pm

Peter Brown wrote: ↑Fri Jan 31, 2020 2:29 pm

I am no market expert, but today;'s action I believe is about the China virus...which imo is overblown. The flu alone kills way more.

contra-indicator

I didn't see the orig post but of course anytime anyone "blames" a market move on any one even or incident they are wrong. Hence the term market. Information is fairly perfect, price discovery is always moving, no static equilibrium exists.

But I've seen these comments before. Not right or thoughtful. Stuff that sells WSJ but not what actually explains anything happening in a market.

Sorry, but what is your point?

blaming a 7% decline on coronavirus is stupid. Just like any other singular event. That's my point. Typical of someone who reads headlines and doesn't investigate but believes whatever is in the headline they see. Trust but veify..

A note from my money guy, nothing fancy or privileged here, but thought I would share:

"...I’ve been warning that COVID-19 is causing some investors to panic. And we saw a big demonstration of that yesterday with the 3.4 percent decline in the S&P 500. And stock prices are continuing to fall today. So, should you be panicking like some people are?

Not at all. Quick drops in stock prices occur from time to time, and we’ve witnessed many such instances in our 30+ years as financial advisors. It’s easy to see why investors might get spooked during such scary times, so we understand that you might have concerns. That’s why we want to assure you and explain why we are not fearful about COVID-19.

First and foremost, I'm very sorry if the virus has affected your health or that of anyone in your life. The stories we’ve all heard about quarantines, illness and death give one pause, and you’re right to be concerned about the public health implications of the virus.

But it’s important to keep COVID-19 in perspective. There have been about 14 confirmed cases in the U.S. and 2,600 deaths globally, mainly in China, according to the latest figures from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Meanwhile, the flu so far this season has infected 29 million people worldwide, and killed 16,000, according to the CDC. Why are some people panicking over COVID-19, when they aren’t at all concerned about the flu?

The reason is obvious: COVID-19 is new; flu isn’t. And “new” means unfamiliar, and that can be scary. We want you to know that, although COVID-19 is new, we see no reason to alter or deviate from your investment strategy or broader financial plan. After all, either COVID-19 will pass – meaning the short-term impact on the financial markets will soon be over – or, well, the virus will wipe out the human race. If the former occurs and a cure or vaccine is found, COVID-19 will be like polio: a thing of the past. And if the latter occurs, and we’re all gone, no one will care what happens to their investments!

In other words, those who are panicking aren’t thinking about this logically. And that’s the point, really: Nobody decides logically that it’s time to panic. Panic is an emotional response, not an intellectual one. So, let’s look at the facts to help you determine the best course of action. Consider that:

The White House National Economic Council and the White House Council of Economic Advisers both report that they expect limited economic impact from COVID-19 – a reduction this year in our gross domestic product (the total value of all goods and services our nation produces) of 0.2 percentage points. Last year’s GDP rose 2.3 percent, according to countryeconomy.com, so a 0.2 cut would mean our economy would expand by 2.1 percent instead of 2.3 percent.

The Congressional Budget Office says 100,000 deaths from the virus would cut GDP growth by 1 percent (not enough to cause a recession) and that a true pandemic of far greater proportion would be similar to an average recession. We’ve had many recessions in our nation’s history, and none have destroyed the U.S. economy. It’s reasonable to expect that the next one won’t either.
Even in China, the virus’s economic impact has been minimal. Oxford Economics notes that China’s GDP last year grew 6.1 percent, and says it expects COVID-19 to reduce China's growth to 5.4 percent in 2020. Thus, China’s economy is expected to grow more than twice as much as the U.S. economy.

Despite our confidence that the virus – and the world’s panic – will be short-lived, we do acknowledge that market volatility might persist until people begin to accept the fact that the world isn’t coming to an end. When they do, it would not surprise us to see stock prices rise as quickly and sharply as they have recently fallen.

And economists are terrible at predicting anything. Great at explaining how the world allocated resources (after the fact) and telling a story but their predictive abilities are as good as mine when playing blackjack at a casino. So who knows if the projections they’ve come up with are even correct.

(Nobel prize in economics is a fraudulent award-given to Robert Merton who was then a driving force behind Long Term Capital Mgt and also the guy who invented Portfolio Insurance which led to black Monday in 87)

Farfromgeneva wrote: ↑Wed Feb 26, 2020 12:05 pm blaming a 7% decline on coronavirus is stupid. Just like any other singular event. That's my point. Typical of someone who reads headlines and doesn't investigate but believes whatever is in the headline they see. Trust but veify..

The catalyst, in this case, coronavirus, the reason(s) are as varied as the seller.

Is that a revival of Yogi Berra-isms?

Farfromgeneva wrote: ↑Wed Feb 26, 2020 3:01 pm Is that a revival of Yogi Berra-isms?

Sort of....we never know in advance what will break a markets trend. We do know that each seller (and buyer) has their own motivation(s)...together they make a market

Narrative Economics is a book.

Markets are greatly over valued.

If profits/revenues are threatened..,,

Last I looked mortality rate for CV was about 3%; flu about 0.01% if memory serves

Nailed it, the narrative fallacy.

Even combining it in a thought w CV so missing the bigger picture. Profits were already threatened and the market is, let’s just say, highly premium valued. Everyone was looking for a 5-10% correction. If we fly through 10%, close down on another reversal on Friday and get closer to high teens from peak early next week then it’s time to evaluate and maybe even consider buying the dip.

Recent developments in the bond market also.

Market is pricing in Fed easing. 2/3 by year end

I hope they don’t. And I really hope as much as for almost any other reason somebody else is President next Jan bc he will replace Powell with someone who will do what he wants and we cannot sterilize our currency. It will cause irreversible harm to our status globally.

Bad night in Europe and US futures are way down again. The new Goldman revision on US profits is bleak.

Farfromgeneva wrote: ↑Wed Feb 26, 2020 5:48 pm Nailed it, the narrative fallacy.

Even combining it in a thought w CV so missing the bigger picture. Profits were already threatened and the market is, let’s just say, highly premium valued. Everyone was looking for a 5-10% correction. If we fly through 10%, close down on another reversal on Friday and get closer to high teens from peak early next week then it’s time to evaluate and maybe even consider buying the dip.

Nice call. You could be right on the money. Down another 4% today (and past 10% total so far in the past 6 trading days) and Friday is never a good day when the market is reeling. I expect more selling tomorrow.

We are not testing so we don’t know. Investors like to know.

Recent ancedotes:

Chatting with a buddy who's a macro strategist (former head of reates strategy at UBS amongst other gigs, ironically got a degree in either english or literature from harvard, son goes to Yale, was on lacrosse team for two years, second really just on sideline from concussion problems) discussing the activity. Only thing either of us seemed to feel confident-ish about is that it's probably a decent time to sell vol(atility). Can be expressed many ways, CNBC tosses around VIX a lot, but that's a fairly retail instrument, anything with embedded options would work.

A $19Bn asset ($2 - $3Bn mkt cap) bank that's got a mixed reputation and acquired a couple of funky banks over the years was concerned their ABL (asset based lending) group was overexposed and CEO was told they could sell that book at par or better. Shopped it and got no bids except a couple of hedge funds (well below par). CEO lost his mind and blew out the whole group, some of whom I know here in Atlanta and had been super aggressive. What's more interesting is that they were really doing mostly lender finance, which is giving leverage/debt to other non bank lenders. That stuff is great when it works but losses are heavy in a sideways situation, thin equity cushion/collateral coverage, very pro cyclical.

Still a ton of cash to be deployed which keeps me from worrying much about this at the moment, but we've increasingly set up a system of liquidity, not solvency, crises.

Top 8 Largest Dow Jones Drops in American History.

1) Trump: -1,191 2/27/20
2) Trump: -1,175 2/5/18
3) Trump: -1,032 2/8/18
4) Trump: -1,031 2/24/20
5) Trump: -879 2/25/20
6) Trump: -831 10/10/18
7) Trump: -800 8/14/19
8) Trump: -799 12/4/18

WINNING.

CU88 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 28, 2020 9:38 am Top 8 Largest Dow Jones Drops in American History.

1) Trump: -1,191 2/27/20
2) Trump: -1,175 2/5/18
3) Trump: -1,032 2/8/18
4) Trump: -1,031 2/24/20
5) Trump: -879 2/25/20
6) Trump: -831 10/10/18
7) Trump: -800 8/14/19
8) Trump: -799 12/4/18

WINNING.

Dow is down nearly 1000 points as I write this.

I’m trying to invest a couple of million dollars for my daughter over the next two decades. With that kind of investing horizon, I am ignoring all this noise and simply relying on dollar cost averaging.

Anyone really believe there would be this much panic in the markets if Trump and his goons at least looked like they had their act together?

Incompetence has its costs. Trump’s incompetence probably cost a few trillion dollars in addition to what coronavirus would have cost us anyway.

DocBarrister