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Re: All things CoronaVirus
Posted: Mon Jan 25, 2021 9:44 am
by CU88
There have been 25,128,378 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 419,225 people have died.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Re: All things CoronaVirus
Posted: Mon Jan 25, 2021 9:55 am
by CU88
Has anyone been able to even buy any "N95" masks, meaning NOT the knock-off version "KN95"?
Masks, Physical Distancing Likely Necessary Until At Least Mid Year
A model by researchers at Columbia University shows that even once Covid-19 vaccinations are well underway, other mitigation strategies like masking and physical distancing will still be key elements to ending the pandemic in the United States (NYT). The model incorporates estimated speed of vaccine distribution, current mitigation strategies and vaccine efficacy after one and two doses. It assumes that healthcare workers and older adults will be prioritized in vaccine rollout and that vaccine distribution will steadily increase to around 5 million doses per week.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... llout.html
Dr. Jeffrey Shaman, the lead investigator on the project, predicts that 105 million people in the U.S. have already been infected with the coronavirus, well above the officially reported number of approximately 25 million. Even if current restrictions are kept in place until July, the model estimates that around 53 million more infections will be added to that tally before enough people are vaccinated to bring the pandemic to a halt. Lifting restrictions in February or March is likely to result in even more infections. Other experts interviewed by the New York Times agreed with the conclusions of the model, though it has not undergone the rigorous peer review process. Dr. Trevor Bedford, a geneticist at the University of Washington, cautioned that the model did not take into account the possible spread of the more-contagious U.K. coronavirus variant, meaning that a spring surge could be more severe than the model predicts.
Some Experts Encourage Public Use of N95 Masks
Mask wearing has long been considered a key measure for stopping the Covid-19 pandemic. Recently, experts have voiced encouragement for the public to start wearing higher-quality masks. Some, including Dr. Abraar Karan, a physician at Brigham and Women’s Hospital and Harvard Medical School, think it’s time for the public to consider wearing N95 masks, commonly reserved for frontline medical workers. N95s are so named because they block 95 percent of small and large particles, providing strong protection for both the wearer and those nearby.
https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/22/health/f ... index.html
Throughout much of 2020, supplies of N95s were low, and some hospitals struggled to supply their workers with the critical protective gear. More recently, however, supplies have stabilized. An executive order by President Biden focuses on ramping up supplies like N95 masks even further, and experts hope that they might soon be widely available for public use. Some European countries are already encouraging their citizens to wear N95 masks, and Germany and France have gone as far as to mandate their use in all public areas (CNN).
Re: All things CoronaVirus
Posted: Mon Jan 25, 2021 10:30 am
by CU88
Re: All things CoronaVirus
Posted: Mon Jan 25, 2021 10:38 am
by Carroll81
CU88 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 25, 2021 9:55 am
Has anyone been able to even buy any "N95" masks, meaning NOT the knock-off version "KN95"?
Masks, Physical Distancing Likely Necessary Until At Least Mid Year
A model by researchers at Columbia University shows that even once Covid-19 vaccinations are well underway, other mitigation strategies like masking and physical distancing will still be key elements to ending the pandemic in the United States (NYT). The model incorporates estimated speed of vaccine distribution, current mitigation strategies and vaccine efficacy after one and two doses. It assumes that healthcare workers and older adults will be prioritized in vaccine rollout and that vaccine distribution will steadily increase to around 5 million doses per week.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... llout.html
Dr. Jeffrey Shaman, the lead investigator on the project, predicts that 105 million people in the U.S. have already been infected with the coronavirus, well above the officially reported number of approximately 25 million. Even if current restrictions are kept in place until July, the model estimates that around 53 million more infections will be added to that tally before enough people are vaccinated to bring the pandemic to a halt. Lifting restrictions in February or March is likely to result in even more infections. Other experts interviewed by the New York Times agreed with the conclusions of the model, though it has not undergone the rigorous peer review process. Dr. Trevor Bedford, a geneticist at the University of Washington, cautioned that the model did not take into account the possible spread of the more-contagious U.K. coronavirus variant, meaning that a spring surge could be more severe than the model predicts.
Some Experts Encourage Public Use of N95 Masks
Mask wearing has long been considered a key measure for stopping the Covid-19 pandemic. Recently, experts have voiced encouragement for the public to start wearing higher-quality masks. Some, including Dr. Abraar Karan, a physician at Brigham and Women’s Hospital and Harvard Medical School, think it’s time for the public to consider wearing N95 masks, commonly reserved for frontline medical workers. N95s are so named because they block 95 percent of small and large particles, providing strong protection for both the wearer and those nearby.
https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/22/health/f ... index.html
Throughout much of 2020, supplies of N95s were low, and some hospitals struggled to supply their workers with the critical protective gear. More recently, however, supplies have stabilized. An executive order by President Biden focuses on ramping up supplies like N95 masks even further, and experts hope that they might soon be widely available for public use. Some European countries are already encouraging their citizens to wear N95 masks, and Germany and France have gone as far as to mandate their use in all public areas (CNN).
Ordered 10 pack of 3M N95 masks from Grainger on Wednesday. Arrived on Saturday.
Re: All things CoronaVirus
Posted: Mon Jan 25, 2021 10:44 am
by Typical Lax Dad
Carroll81 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 25, 2021 10:38 am
CU88 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 25, 2021 9:55 am
Has anyone been able to even buy any "N95" masks, meaning NOT the knock-off version "KN95"?
Masks, Physical Distancing Likely Necessary Until At Least Mid Year
A model by researchers at Columbia University shows that even once Covid-19 vaccinations are well underway, other mitigation strategies like masking and physical distancing will still be key elements to ending the pandemic in the United States (NYT). The model incorporates estimated speed of vaccine distribution, current mitigation strategies and vaccine efficacy after one and two doses. It assumes that healthcare workers and older adults will be prioritized in vaccine rollout and that vaccine distribution will steadily increase to around 5 million doses per week.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... llout.html
Dr. Jeffrey Shaman, the lead investigator on the project, predicts that 105 million people in the U.S. have already been infected with the coronavirus, well above the officially reported number of approximately 25 million. Even if current restrictions are kept in place until July, the model estimates that around 53 million more infections will be added to that tally before enough people are vaccinated to bring the pandemic to a halt. Lifting restrictions in February or March is likely to result in even more infections. Other experts interviewed by the New York Times agreed with the conclusions of the model, though it has not undergone the rigorous peer review process. Dr. Trevor Bedford, a geneticist at the University of Washington, cautioned that the model did not take into account the possible spread of the more-contagious U.K. coronavirus variant, meaning that a spring surge could be more severe than the model predicts.
Some Experts Encourage Public Use of N95 Masks
Mask wearing has long been considered a key measure for stopping the Covid-19 pandemic. Recently, experts have voiced encouragement for the public to start wearing higher-quality masks. Some, including Dr. Abraar Karan, a physician at Brigham and Women’s Hospital and Harvard Medical School, think it’s time for the public to consider wearing N95 masks, commonly reserved for frontline medical workers. N95s are so named because they block 95 percent of small and large particles, providing strong protection for both the wearer and those nearby.
https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/22/health/f ... index.html
Throughout much of 2020, supplies of N95s were low, and some hospitals struggled to supply their workers with the critical protective gear. More recently, however, supplies have stabilized. An executive order by President Biden focuses on ramping up supplies like N95 masks even further, and experts hope that they might soon be widely available for public use. Some European countries are already encouraging their citizens to wear N95 masks, and Germany and France have gone as far as to mandate their use in all public areas (CNN).
Ordered 10 pack of 3M N95 masks from Grainger on Wednesday. Arrived on Saturday.
Very hard to find last spring and summer. Just not enough melt blown capacity. Capacity has been added. I know of some large industrial companies that donated supply to hospitals and other facilities last Spring. I also just ordered some 3M masks.
Re: All things CoronaVirus
Posted: Mon Jan 25, 2021 11:51 am
by wgdsr
Re: All things CoronaVirus
Posted: Mon Jan 25, 2021 11:56 am
by MDlaxfan76
Re: All things CoronaVirus
Posted: Mon Jan 25, 2021 12:03 pm
by a fan
Shocker.
Maybe next pandemic we'll go all in, and take this stuff seriously.
(probably not)
Re: All things CoronaVirus
Posted: Mon Jan 25, 2021 12:07 pm
by Kismet
"Moderna Is Working on Vaccine Booster for New Variant
Its existing shot produces fewer protective antibodies against the variant found in South Africa, so the company plans to test an alternate version."
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/01/25 ... oronavirus
Re: All things CoronaVirus
Posted: Mon Jan 25, 2021 12:09 pm
by Typical Lax Dad
a fan wrote: ↑Mon Jan 25, 2021 12:03 pm
Shocker.
Maybe next pandemic we'll go all in, and take this stuff seriously.
(probably not)
It was going to disappear and we probably wouldn’t need a vaccine.
Re: All things CoronaVirus
Posted: Mon Jan 25, 2021 12:12 pm
by wgdsr
https://covidtracking.com/data
i've said for a while now this coming week and beyond will tell us a good deal directionally.
we've already had good recent results on hospitalizations, which isn't a noisey number and is fairly accurate daily and not subject to much reporting lag and noise. down from a high of low 130's to 110.
cases at the present level already give the indication that they've improved over the last month. and maybe quite a bit. and many states have pointed that way.
deaths as the most lagging indicator and with the most noise from the holidays hopefully gollow the direction of the other 2 going forward. even a big chunk recently california seems to be going in the right direction.
while the vaccine effect may kick in, not a ton of what's been given out has gone to seniors in the u.s.. hopefully, that changes. and maybe if we got to most nursing homes it kicks in soon on deaths. looking at israel, which has the highest vaccine adoption so far, that corner hasn't been turned yet. tl;dr - a lot of the numbers help is going to be non-vaccine related for a while. hopefully, not too long.
Re: All things CoronaVirus
Posted: Mon Jan 25, 2021 12:13 pm
by wgdsr
a fan wrote: ↑Mon Jan 25, 2021 12:03 pm
Shocker.
Maybe next pandemic we'll go all in, and take this stuff seriously.
(probably not)
what does "a very long time" mean to build a facility?
i don't know!!! learning as i go along!!!
Re: All things CoronaVirus
Posted: Mon Jan 25, 2021 12:34 pm
by Bart
Glad they are looking into this as this is the real power of an mRNA vaccine.
That being said, they released a presser this am indicating their vaccine still produced enough of a response to be protective, although 6x less neutralizing ab's but enough to get the desired response.
"The study showed no significant impact on neutralizing titers against the B.1.1.7 variant relative to prior variants. A six-fold reduction in neutralizing titers was observed with the B.1.351 variant relative to prior variants. Despite this reduction, neutralizing titer levels with B.1.351 remain above levels that are expected to be protective. "
Here is the preprint:
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 48v1?rss=1
Re: All things CoronaVirus
Posted: Mon Jan 25, 2021 12:39 pm
by wgdsr
wgdsr wrote: ↑Mon Jan 25, 2021 12:13 pm
a fan wrote: ↑Mon Jan 25, 2021 12:03 pm
Shocker.
Maybe next pandemic we'll go all in, and take this stuff seriously.
(probably not)
what does "a very long time" mean to build a facility?
i don't know!!! learning as i go along!!!
so here ya go a fan:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... es-factory
doesn't sound like the italian guy is too happy about it, maybe he won't be up for the increased production, either.
and here's biontech:
supposedly striking deals with other pharmas. tbd.
https://www.france24.com/en/europe/2021 ... o-fill-gap
and of that new production facility in germany... bought in mid-september. they expect to go live in feb or end of feb, 250 million in 2nd quarter.
https://investors.biontech.de/news-rele ... 19-vaccine
Re: All things CoronaVirus
Posted: Mon Jan 25, 2021 12:46 pm
by Bart
From the article above, this is a great take on the entire thing: ""I'd rather hear the companies have fallen short of their production goal, but managed to maintain their quality control because all of this really depends on the quality control," he said. "It's really the case for all drugs. So like I said before, but in this case, just because of the particular nature of this drug and the specific fragility of dealing with anything RNA-related, it's important to take a step back."
If there is a bad production run and the safety of the vaccine comes into question then we will no longer have to worry about a shortage of available product.
And I 100% agree, working with RNA is a huge arseache. In most labs around my neck of the woods, if you work with RNA you have an entirely separate set up to just work with the RNA.
Re: All things CoronaVirus
Posted: Mon Jan 25, 2021 1:02 pm
by wgdsr
Bart wrote: ↑Mon Jan 25, 2021 12:46 pm
From the article above, this is a great take on the entire thing: ""I'd rather hear the companies have fallen short of their production goal, but managed to maintain their quality control because all of this really depends on the quality control," he said. "It's really the case for all drugs. So like I said before, but in this case, just because of the particular nature of this drug and the specific fragility of dealing with anything RNA-related, it's important to take a step back."
If there is a bad production run and the safety of the vaccine comes into question then we will no longer have to worry about a shortage of available product.
And I 100% agree, working with RNA is a huge arseache. In most labs around my neck of the woods, if you work with RNA you have an entirely separate set up to just work with the RNA.
just don't look at it wrong.
in other news, 2nd article down for now:
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/25/coronav ... idappshare
pfizer from the jump just seems tough to work with.
are they already counting it as 6? have they distributed the 6 dose syringes to every location if yay?
we should maybe enact a hostile takeover of biontech with a hedgie. or moderna. those guys seem easier to deal with fo sho.
and 2 masks are better than 1 if you can't get an n95. what about 4? has to be better? this pandemic is tough to stay up with.
Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus
Posted: Mon Jan 25, 2021 1:23 pm
by kramerica.inc
President Joe Biden has painted a bleak picture of the nation’s coronavirus outbreak in his first few days in office.
During a Friday press briefing, Biden said that Covid-19 deaths are expected to reach “well over 600,000.”
The president also warned that “there’s nothing we can do to change the trajectory of the pandemic in the next several months.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/22/biden-s ... onths.html
Here's hoping he's just sandbagging so we're all impressed with his results.
But for so much critique of Trump's lousy messaging, one would think Biden coulda said, "continue to sign up for vaccines, mask, distance, and wash hands."
Re: All things CoronaVirus
Posted: Mon Jan 25, 2021 1:23 pm
by a fan
wgdsr wrote: ↑Mon Jan 25, 2021 12:13 pm
a fan wrote: ↑Mon Jan 25, 2021 12:03 pm
Shocker.
Maybe next pandemic we'll go all in, and take this stuff seriously.
(probably not)
what does "a very long time" mean to build a facility?
It completely depends on what you're producing. Producing vials or needles are different than producing vaccine substrate.
If you ask me how I would double Bourbon production? I could lay it out for you on one, easy to read sheet of paper...... X number of barrels, Y number of fermenters, Z number of stills, F number of bottle filling lines. And I can ALWAYS tell you what the bottleneck is.
The fact that Pfizer and Moderna can't tell us "here's the bottleneck", tells me that we're in a "well let you know when the vaccine arrives, stop bothering us" mode. Which is fine under normal circumstances, but 1000% not ok during an emergency when WE THE PEOPLE are the customer that's cutting billion dollar checks.
As for the "RNA is hard"-----so is everything in manufacturing. Try hitting a flavor profile of balanced fruit and spice notes 10 years from when you start, when you're making a Rye Whiskey. I have to do that. My company depends on it.
All these production forecasts INCLUDES failures and what's called "production line efficiencies". These days? If you go to a Budweiser plant, the floor manager can tell you the efficiency of every SINGLE piece of equipment on the production floor. In other words, filling line #1 may be 5% more efficient than filling line #7. And they go to work on why that's the case immediately.
This isn't WWII, where pencils and clipboards handled logistics. The difference between WWII and 2020-----is that we treated WWII as a national emergency. We're NOT doing that with the vaccine. We're taking a "you'll get it when you get it" approach, and it's plain to see.....
We don't have the will. So.....we'll deal with this pandemic for months more than we needed to.....
Re: All things CoronaVirus
Posted: Mon Jan 25, 2021 1:28 pm
by Typical Lax Dad
a fan wrote: ↑Mon Jan 25, 2021 1:23 pm
wgdsr wrote: ↑Mon Jan 25, 2021 12:13 pm
a fan wrote: ↑Mon Jan 25, 2021 12:03 pm
Shocker.
Maybe next pandemic we'll go all in, and take this stuff seriously.
(probably not)
what does "a very long time" mean to build a facility?
It completely depends on what you're producing. Producing vials or needles are different than producing vaccine substrate.
If you ask me how I would double Bourbon production? I could lay it out for you on one, easy to read sheet of paper...... X number of barrels, Y number of fermenters, Z number of stills, F number of bottle filling lines. And I can ALWAYS tell you what the bottleneck is.
The fact that Pfizer and Moderna can't tell us "here's the bottleneck", tells me that we're in a "well let you know when the vaccine arrives, stop bothering us" mode. Which is fine under normal circumstances, but 1000% not ok during an emergency when WE THE PEOPLE are the customer that's cutting billion dollar checks.
As for the "RNA is hard"-----so is everything in manufacturing. Try hitting a flavor profile of balanced fruit and spice notes 10 years from when you start, when you're making a Rye Whiskey. I have to do that. My company depends on it.
All these production forecasts INCLUDES failures and what's called "production line efficiencies". These days? If you go to a Budweiser plant, the floor manager can tell you the efficiency of every SINGLE piece of equipment on the production floor. In other words, filling line #1 may be 5% more efficient than filling line #7. And they go to work on why that's the case immediately.
This isn't WWII, where pencils and clipboards handled logistics. The difference between WWII and 2020-----is that we treated WWII as a national emergency. We're NOT doing that with the vaccine. We're taking a "you'll get it when you get it" approach, and it's plain to see.....
We don't have the will. So.....we'll deal with this pandemic for months more than we needed to.....
I mentioned that last Spring. Lack of will and hubris...
Re: All things CoronaVirus
Posted: Mon Jan 25, 2021 1:30 pm
by njbill
Bart wrote: ↑Mon Jan 25, 2021 12:34 pm
Glad they are looking into this as this is the real power of an mRNA vaccine.
That being said, they released a presser this am indicating their vaccine still produced enough of a response to be protective, although 6x less neutralizing ab's but enough to get the desired response.
"The study showed no significant impact on neutralizing titers against the B.1.1.7 variant relative to prior variants. A six-fold reduction in neutralizing titers was observed with the B.1.351 variant relative to prior variants. Despite this reduction, neutralizing titer levels with B.1.351 remain above levels that are expected to be protective. "
Here is the preprint:
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 48v1?rss=1
Hopefully we can get to the point where they can remove “expected to be” from that sentence.