2020 Elections - Trump FIRED

[jhu72]

President SFB has stepped on his own dick again. He today officially informed the UN that the US is withdrawing from the Paris Accords. International law requires a one year notice period, meaning it cannot take place until a year from now. One day after the general election in fact, is the earliest. Given the window, the UN and other signatories may not be so quick to accept the notice if Trump does not win the general election, providing the US with a grace period until the winning democrat takes office 2 months later.

This is a great issue for the democrats. There is concern that young voters may not show up if their candidate is not the winner of the democratic nomination. The young voters biggest hot button issue is climate change. Publicizing widely this notice given by Trump can get the youngsters to come out to vote no matter who the democratic candidate is.

[calourie]

In Kentucky Governor's race Democrat Beshear ekes out a win against incumbent Repulican Bevin, a state that Trump won by 30 points. Trump tried to carry Bevin over the finish line with a last minute Kentucky rally for Bevin who had made a point of hitching his wagon to the Trump star. Bevin was an unpopular Governor but as we know Trump likes to see himself as the world's greatest winner and probably doesn't like to see his star lose some of its' luster. Relative to the results from 4 years ago, gains by the Bevin in rural areas were more than offset by suburban gains for Beshear. I have a feeling these will be the trends to look at this coming election cycle.

[jhu72]

In Kentucky Governor's race Democrat Beshear ekes out a win against incumbent Repulican Bevin, a state that Trump won by 30 points. Trump tried to carry Bevin over the finish line with a last minute Kentucky rally for Bevin who had made a point of hitching his wagon to the Trump star. Bevin was an unpopular Governor but as we know Trump likes to see himself as the world's greatest winner and probably doesn't like to see his star lose some of its' luster. Relative to the results from 4 years ago, gains by the Bevin in rural areas were more than offset by suburban gains for Beshear. I have a feeling these will be the trends to look at this coming election cycle.

Also .5 million more voters showed up than in 2018 mid terms. A lot of republicans voted for the democrat. Bevin is a real dog candidate, but he still won 4 years ago without Trump and by a very comfortable margin. Probably his two biggest negatives; he is a real dick, much like Trump. Personality is similar. He also pissed a lot of Kentuckians off by not taking federal health care dollars (ACA).

I would not read too much into this, other than the urban and suburban ex-republican vote now goes to democrats in all states. Kentucky is not so rural if urban and suburban voters show up.

[MDlaxfan76]

In Kentucky Governor's race Democrat Beshear ekes out a win against incumbent Repulican Bevin, a state that Trump won by 30 points. Trump tried to carry Bevin over the finish line with a last minute Kentucky rally for Bevin who had made a point of hitching his wagon to the Trump star. Bevin was an unpopular Governor but as we know Trump likes to see himself as the world's greatest winner and probably doesn't like to see his star lose some of its' luster. Relative to the results from 4 years ago, gains by the Bevin in rural areas were more than offset by suburban gains for Beshear. I have a feeling these will be the trends to look at this coming election cycle.

Am I correct (Morning Joe data), the polls had R Bevin ahead by 5 a week ago?
In the meantime, Trump had a rally the night before the vote.
Was the poll wrong the week before, or did I miss hear?

[Bandito]

In Kentucky Governor's race Democrat Beshear ekes out a win against incumbent Repulican Bevin, a state that Trump won by 30 points. Trump tried to carry Bevin over the finish line with a last minute Kentucky rally for Bevin who had made a point of hitching his wagon to the Trump star. Bevin was an unpopular Governor but as we know Trump likes to see himself as the world's greatest winner and probably doesn't like to see his star lose some of its' luster. Relative to the results from 4 years ago, gains by the Bevin in rural areas were more than offset by suburban gains for Beshear. I have a feeling these will be the trends to look at this coming election cycle.

Am I correct (Morning Joe data), the polls had R Blevin ahead by 5 a week ago?
In the meantime, Trump had a rally the night before the vote.
Was the poll wrong the week before, or did I miss hear?

Bevin was arguably the least popular Governor in the country. Republicans won every other election in the state but this one, including a black Republican attorney general. Kentucky has barely had any Republicans hold high office in the state as a lot of old school southern Democrats live there not realizing their older party has completely left them as the Dems are highly socialist today. Bevin would’ve lost by a lot more if not for Trump’s endorsement. Also, he lost by only 5K votes which means a recount is most likely in order. If you disagree with a recount but got your panties in a wad about Abrams in Ga, you are a hypocrite

[Trinity]

Know who is liked less in Ky? Moscow Mitch.

[Bandito]

In Kentucky Governor's race Democrat Beshear ekes out a win against incumbent Repulican Bevin, a state that Trump won by 30 points. Trump tried to carry Bevin over the finish line with a last minute Kentucky rally for Bevin who had made a point of hitching his wagon to the Trump star. Bevin was an unpopular Governor but as we know Trump likes to see himself as the world's greatest winner and probably doesn't like to see his star lose some of its' luster. Relative to the results from 4 years ago, gains by the Bevin in rural areas were more than offset by suburban gains for Beshear. I have a feeling these will be the trends to look at this coming election cycle.

Also .5 million more voters showed up than in 2018 mid terms. A lot of republicans voted for the democrat. Bevin is a real dog candidate, but he still won 4 years ago without Trump and by a very comfortable margin. Probably his two biggest negatives; he is a real dick, much like Trump. Personality is similar. He also ticked a lot of Kentuckians off by not taking federal health care dollars (ACA).

I would not read too much into this, other than the urban and suburban ex-republican vote now goes to democrats in all states. Kentucky is not so rural if urban and suburban voters show up.

Republicans aren’t overall voting for Dems. This was an anomaly. If you were correct (which you never are) then why didn’t MS voters vote Democrat? Exactly. It’s because Bevin was a trash candidate who Trump made a close candidate because of his endorsement.

[MDlaxfan76]

In Kentucky Governor's race Democrat Beshear ekes out a win against incumbent Repulican Bevin, a state that Trump won by 30 points. Trump tried to carry Bevin over the finish line with a last minute Kentucky rally for Bevin who had made a point of hitching his wagon to the Trump star. Bevin was an unpopular Governor but as we know Trump likes to see himself as the world's greatest winner and probably doesn't like to see his star lose some of its' luster. Relative to the results from 4 years ago, gains by the Bevin in rural areas were more than offset by suburban gains for Beshear. I have a feeling these will be the trends to look at this coming election cycle.

Also .5 million more voters showed up than in 2018 mid terms. A lot of republicans voted for the democrat. Bevin is a real dog candidate, but he still won 4 years ago without Trump and by a very comfortable margin. Probably his two biggest negatives; he is a real dick, much like Trump. Personality is similar. He also ticked a lot of Kentuckians off by not taking federal health care dollars (ACA).

I would not read too much into this, other than the urban and suburban ex-republican vote now goes to democrats in all states. Kentucky is not so rural if urban and suburban voters show up.

That's the key. But note that the trend swing (like '18) is suburban voters who can go either way, more educated, and a lot of them...they're not D's per se...they're turned off by Trumpism.

It's not that the D base is energized (both bases are), it's that educated, suburban voters who are R's and I's are swinging D...but this is based on anti-Trumpism, not an affection for the furthest left base Dem policy views and tone. So, it's tenuous, based on the binary choice to be made.

Dems have been putting up a lot of candidates who have focused not on Trump per se, but rather on tone and policies that counter the overreach of Trumpism. Conversely, R's have largely been doubling down on Trumpism, ie rejection of Medicaid expansion, anti public education, anti-immigrant extremism, etc. Turns off the educated swing voter big time.

[Typical Lax Dad]

In Kentucky Governor's race Democrat Beshear ekes out a win against incumbent Repulican Bevin, a state that Trump won by 30 points. Trump tried to carry Bevin over the finish line with a last minute Kentucky rally for Bevin who had made a point of hitching his wagon to the Trump star. Bevin was an unpopular Governor but as we know Trump likes to see himself as the world's greatest winner and probably doesn't like to see his star lose some of its' luster. Relative to the results from 4 years ago, gains by the Bevin in rural areas were more than offset by suburban gains for Beshear. I have a feeling these will be the trends to look at this coming election cycle.

Also .5 million more voters showed up than in 2018 mid terms. A lot of republicans voted for the democrat. Bevin is a real dog candidate, but he still won 4 years ago without Trump and by a very comfortable margin. Probably his two biggest negatives; he is a real dick, much like Trump. Personality is similar. He also ticked a lot of Kentuckians off by not taking federal health care dollars (ACA).

I would not read too much into this, other than the urban and suburban ex-republican vote now goes to democrats in all states. Kentucky is not so rural if urban and suburban voters show up.

That's the key. But note that the trend swing (like '18) is suburban voters who can go either way, more educated, and a lot of them...they're not D's per se...they're turned off by Trumpism.

It's not that the D base is energized (both bases are), it's that educated, suburban voters who are R's and I's are swinging D...but this is based on anti-Trumpism, not an affection for the furthest left base Dem policy views and tone. So, it's tenuous, based on the binary choice to be made.

Dems have been putting up a lot of candidates who have focused not on Trump per se, but rather on tone and policies that counter the overreach of Trumpism. Conversely, R's have largely been doubling down on Trumpism, ie rejection of Medicaid expansion, anti public education, anti-immigrant extremism, etc. Turns off the educated swing voter big time.

Those people that finally got to see him in action don’t like what they see. Trump has a carefully cultivated television image which masked his incompetence and his worst impulses. People gave him a chance. Many have been turned off and many are now turning the page. For people following him for 30+ years, he is basically Paris Hilton. Famous by using a publicist to create fame. That’s how he started. The Kardashian’s did the same thing, but as much as I don’t care for them, they are smarter business people than Trump....and are more decent people.

[jhu72]

In Kentucky Governor's race Democrat Beshear ekes out a win against incumbent Repulican Bevin, a state that Trump won by 30 points. Trump tried to carry Bevin over the finish line with a last minute Kentucky rally for Bevin who had made a point of hitching his wagon to the Trump star. Bevin was an unpopular Governor but as we know Trump likes to see himself as the world's greatest winner and probably doesn't like to see his star lose some of its' luster. Relative to the results from 4 years ago, gains by the Bevin in rural areas were more than offset by suburban gains for Beshear. I have a feeling these will be the trends to look at this coming election cycle.

Also .5 million more voters showed up than in 2018 mid terms. A lot of republicans voted for the democrat. Bevin is a real dog candidate, but he still won 4 years ago without Trump and by a very comfortable margin. Probably his two biggest negatives; he is a real dick, much like Trump. Personality is similar. He also ticked a lot of Kentuckians off by not taking federal health care dollars (ACA).

I would not read too much into this, other than the urban and suburban ex-republican vote now goes to democrats in all states. Kentucky is not so rural if urban and suburban voters show up.

Republicans aren’t overall voting for Dems. This was an anomaly. If you were correct (which you never are) then why didn’t MS voters vote Democrat? Exactly. It’s because Bevin was a trash candidate who Trump made a close candidate because of his endorsement.

Read what I wrote. The republicans voting for the democrat lived in an around (and mostly around) major cities. Mississippi doesn't have but one major city, Jackson, and a very small one at that. 160,000 population. Mississippi is a nearly pure rural state. I have no expectation that the democrats will win Mississippi anytime soon. There are a lot more states like Kentucky.

MD you are correct about the polling. There is no way to know whether the poll was wrong at that time or Trump cost Bevin the election. There is evidence that although Trump pulled out his base, HE ALSO PULLED OUT the resistance. Trump is by far the most divisive candidate ever, this includes Lincoln.

[MDlaxfan76]

In Kentucky Governor's race Democrat Beshear ekes out a win against incumbent Repulican Bevin, a state that Trump won by 30 points. Trump tried to carry Bevin over the finish line with a last minute Kentucky rally for Bevin who had made a point of hitching his wagon to the Trump star. Bevin was an unpopular Governor but as we know Trump likes to see himself as the world's greatest winner and probably doesn't like to see his star lose some of its' luster. Relative to the results from 4 years ago, gains by the Bevin in rural areas were more than offset by suburban gains for Beshear. I have a feeling these will be the trends to look at this coming election cycle.

Also .5 million more voters showed up than in 2018 mid terms. A lot of republicans voted for the democrat. Bevin is a real dog candidate, but he still won 4 years ago without Trump and by a very comfortable margin. Probably his two biggest negatives; he is a real dick, much like Trump. Personality is similar. He also ticked a lot of Kentuckians off by not taking federal health care dollars (ACA).

I would not read too much into this, other than the urban and suburban ex-republican vote now goes to democrats in all states. Kentucky is not so rural if urban and suburban voters show up.

Republicans aren’t overall voting for Dems. This was an anomaly. If you were correct (which you never are) then why didn’t MS voters vote Democrat? Exactly. It’s because Bevin was a trash candidate who Trump made a close candidate because of his endorsement.

Read what I wrote. The republicans voting for the democrat lived in an around (and mostly around) major cities. Mississippi doesn't have but one major city, Jackson, and a very small one at that. 160,000 population. Mississippi is a nearly pure rural state. I have no expectation that the democrats will win Mississippi anytime soon. There are a lot more states like Kentucky.

MD you are correct about the polling. There is no way to know whether the poll was wrong at that time or Trump cost Bevin the election. There is evidence that although Trump pulled out his base, HE ALSO PULLED OUT the resistance. Trump is by far the most divisive candidate ever, this includes Lincoln.

Interestingly, Kentucky has a very low % of college educated folks #46 (not as low as Missisisipi #49), but white, non-college grads is very high in Kentucky...yet, nevertheless it's in play, given the right candidate match-up.

[jhu72]

In Kentucky Governor's race Democrat Beshear ekes out a win against incumbent Repulican Bevin, a state that Trump won by 30 points. Trump tried to carry Bevin over the finish line with a last minute Kentucky rally for Bevin who had made a point of hitching his wagon to the Trump star. Bevin was an unpopular Governor but as we know Trump likes to see himself as the world's greatest winner and probably doesn't like to see his star lose some of its' luster. Relative to the results from 4 years ago, gains by the Bevin in rural areas were more than offset by suburban gains for Beshear. I have a feeling these will be the trends to look at this coming election cycle.

Also .5 million more voters showed up than in 2018 mid terms. A lot of republicans voted for the democrat. Bevin is a real dog candidate, but he still won 4 years ago without Trump and by a very comfortable margin. Probably his two biggest negatives; he is a real dick, much like Trump. Personality is similar. He also ticked a lot of Kentuckians off by not taking federal health care dollars (ACA).

I would not read too much into this, other than the urban and suburban ex-republican vote now goes to democrats in all states. Kentucky is not so rural if urban and suburban voters show up.

Republicans aren’t overall voting for Dems. This was an anomaly. If you were correct (which you never are) then why didn’t MS voters vote Democrat? Exactly. It’s because Bevin was a trash candidate who Trump made a close candidate because of his endorsement.

Read what I wrote. The republicans voting for the democrat lived in an around (and mostly around) major cities. Mississippi doesn't have but one major city, Jackson, and a very small one at that. 160,000 population. Mississippi is a nearly pure rural state. I have no expectation that the democrats will win Mississippi anytime soon. There are a lot more states like Kentucky.

MD you are correct about the polling. There is no way to know whether the poll was wrong at that time or Trump cost Bevin the election. There is evidence that although Trump pulled out his base, HE ALSO PULLED OUT the resistance. Trump is by far the most divisive candidate ever, this includes Lincoln.

Interestingly, Kentucky has a very low % of college educated folks #46 (not as low as Missisisipi #49), but white, non-college grads is very high in Kentucky...yet, nevertheless it's in play, given the right candidate match-up.

Yup. You look at Kentucky's eastern coal country, traditionally democratic, still mostly registered democrats, it went for the democrat. Its West Virginia!

I think McConnell should be concerned given his approval rating in Kentucky and the democratic candidate he will face.

[CU88]

I still expect o d to be re-elected in 2020, but this is a bit of a quiet surprise to me, as he needs to win PA:

Democrats did well last night in the Philadelphia suburbs, which will be key to the party's chances of winning back the commonwealth in 2020...

https://www.inquirer.com/news/pennsylva ... 91106.html

On a very local level, Upper Gwynedd in Montco (where major Merck facility is) elected three Dem women who beat incumbent Republicans who have been in office for 14 28, and 40 years. The board is now 5-0 Dem and all are women.

These are Reagan Democrats, and if voters turn out like this, against o d, then he could be in trouble.

[njbill]

Biden would beat Trump in Pennsylvania. Trump knows that, which is why he is worried about him. Biden would do well in northeast Pennsylvania, where he was raised. Don’t have the numbers in front of me, but Trump did very well up there in 2016. Biden would either win that region outright or at least to do much better than Clinton.

[RedFromMI]

Biden would beat Trump in Pennsylvania. Trump knows that, which is why he is worried about him. Biden would do well in northeast Pennsylvania, where he was raised. Don’t have the numbers in front of me, but Trump did very well up there in 2016. Biden would either win that region outright or at least to do much better than Clinton.

Margin in 2016 in PA was 44,292 out of more than 6 million votes.

[njbill]

Thanks. I should have been clearer. I was referring to the votes in the northeast counties which I didn’t bother to look up. I also think Biden would do better with African-American voters than Clinton did. Perhaps not by a huge amount, but every vote counts.

[RedFromMI]

Thanks. I should have been clearer. I was referring to the votes in the northeast counties which I didn’t bother to look up. I also think Biden would do better with African-American voters than Clinton did. Perhaps not by a huge amount, but every vote counts.

He would likely get a higher turnout - some of those Russian bots were working very hard on Facebook (or should that be FACEBOOK) and Twitter trying to suppress the AA vote...

[jhu72]

Thanks. I should have been clearer. I was referring to the votes in the northeast counties which I didn’t bother to look up. I also think Biden would do better with African-American voters than Clinton did. Perhaps not by a huge amount, but every vote counts.

Based on last nights results, I think Biden would have an excellent chance of beating Trump without it being really close. This based on the results in eastern Kentucky. Coal miners and other blue collar workers who voted for Trump 2016, abandoned him last night. Biden is a magnet for this type of voter.

[Bandito]

Facts:

Matt Bevin was down 17 points before @realDonaldTrump held a rally in Lexington

Now he's within .3 points of his Democrat opponent

Republicans also won 5 of 6 statewide races

There is HUGE Trump enthusiasm in Kentucky and across America

[Bandito]

Thanks. I should have been clearer. I was referring to the votes in the northeast counties which I didn’t bother to look up. I also think Biden would do better with African-American voters than Clinton did. Perhaps not by a huge amount, but every vote counts.

He would likely get a higher turnout - some of those Russian bots were working very hard on Facebook (or should that be FACEBOOK) and Twitter trying to suppress the AA vote...

Only morons believe Russian collusion. Welcome to the club of cluelessness brainwashing