wgdsr wrote: ↑Sat Jan 02, 2021 2:34 pm
i haven't seen yet what uk's daily testing has been the last couple months, could be part of it.
but they did have a huge run in confirmed cases up to 25k/day and ran it back down to <15k in november. but in one month now looking to overrun 50k/day. that's... maybe a big problem. hopefully we catch it in its tracks here.
We don't test enough. Period.
who does?
i mean... maybe/probably? what does that look like? probably not with our lab capacity and "normal" pcr tests. more like rapid tests that are close to same accuracy. seems to me they just got recently developed as being in the same accuracy range. then big headlines "we'll be able to deploy 5 million in a month/several months" that's several days worth.
real impact on that would be moving algorithmically 10 fold or more. don't know if we have even the resource capacity to do that.
Yes. I have been reading quite a bit on the rapid antigen tests. Home models. Mina at Harvard is a huge proponent of them. In my mind he has some extremely valid points.
I have seen differing ideas on the roll out numbers. If I were king I’d be sending them out to everyone, free of charge. You wouldn’t need 100% compliance, which you would never get. Getting a certain percentage to test and similarly to just stay home if positive would continually chip away to bring R below 1. Add in the vaccines and other social mitigation strategies would, imo, get us back towards normal quicker. Death of a thousand cuts.
A random representative sample of sufficient size to allow a high confidence value would be a good start.
But it needs to be random. People who feel sick is not random.
I like your idea of sending the rapid antigen tests to everyone — with the hope they will self-report any positives. Maybe design the test so that the user has to respond with a code to see results? Then we could get some data.
“Data, data everywhere.
And not a bit to sample.”
I hope Coleridge will excuse my paraphrasing.
"There is nothing more difficult and more dangerous to carry through than initiating changes. One makes enemies of those who prospered under the old order, and only lukewarm support from those who would prosper under the new."
wgdsr wrote: ↑Sat Jan 02, 2021 2:34 pm
i haven't seen yet what uk's daily testing has been the last couple months, could be part of it.
but they did have a huge run in confirmed cases up to 25k/day and ran it back down to <15k in november. but in one month now looking to overrun 50k/day. that's... maybe a big problem. hopefully we catch it in its tracks here.
We don't test enough. Period.
who does?
i mean... maybe/probably? what does that look like? probably not with our lab capacity and "normal" pcr tests. more like rapid tests that are close to same accuracy. seems to me they just got recently developed as being in the same accuracy range. then big headlines "we'll be able to deploy 5 million in a month/several months" that's several days worth.
real impact on that would be moving algorithmically 10 fold or more. don't know if we have even the resource capacity to do that.
Yes. I have been reading quite a bit on the rapid antigen tests. Home models. Mina at Harvard is a huge proponent of them. In my mind he has some extremely valid points.
I have seen differing ideas on the roll out numbers. If I were king I’d be sending them out to everyone, free of charge. You wouldn’t need 100% compliance, which you would never get. Getting a certain percentage to test and similarly to just stay home if positive would continually chip away to bring R below 1. Add in the vaccines and other social mitigation strategies would, imo, get us back towards normal quicker. Death of a thousand cuts.
A random representative sample of sufficient size to allow a high confidence value would be a good start.
But it needs to be random. People who feel sick is not random.
I like your idea of sending the rapid antigen tests to everyone — with the hope they will self-report any positives. Maybe design the test so that the user has to respond with a code to see results? Then we could get some data.
“Data, data everywhere.
And not a bit to sample.”
I hope Coleridge will excuse my paraphrasing.
Not my Idea. It’s Micheal Mina’s. Read up on his stuff if you like that line of thought. He has been pushing it since last spring. I came around on it, like that matters, a while back when the accuracy became better. In hindsight, I think even with a lower accuracy this strategy is sound
wgdsr wrote: ↑Sat Jan 02, 2021 2:34 pm
i haven't seen yet what uk's daily testing has been the last couple months, could be part of it.
but they did have a huge run in confirmed cases up to 25k/day and ran it back down to <15k in november. but in one month now looking to overrun 50k/day. that's... maybe a big problem. hopefully we catch it in its tracks here.
We don't test enough. Period.
who does?
i mean... maybe/probably? what does that look like? probably not with our lab capacity and "normal" pcr tests. more like rapid tests that are close to same accuracy. seems to me they just got recently developed as being in the same accuracy range. then big headlines "we'll be able to deploy 5 million in a month/several months" that's several days worth.
real impact on that would be moving algorithmically 10 fold or more. don't know if we have even the resource capacity to do that.
Yes. I have been reading quite a bit on the rapid antigen tests. Home models. Mina at Harvard is a huge proponent of them. In my mind he has some extremely valid points.
I have seen differing ideas on the roll out numbers. If I were king I’d be sending them out to everyone, free of charge. You wouldn’t need 100% compliance, which you would never get. Getting a certain percentage to test and similarly to just stay home if positive would continually chip away to bring R below 1. Add in the vaccines and other social mitigation strategies would, imo, get us back towards normal quicker. Death of a thousand cuts.
A random representative sample of sufficient size to allow a high confidence value would be a good start.
But it needs to be random. People who feel sick is not random.
I like your idea of sending the rapid antigen tests to everyone — with the hope they will self-report any positives. Maybe design the test so that the user has to respond with a code to see results? Then we could get some data.
“Data, data everywhere.
And not a bit to sample.”
I hope Coleridge will excuse my paraphrasing.
Not my Idea. It’s Micheal Mina’s. Read up on his stuff if you like that line of thought. He has been pushing it since last spring. I came around on it, like that matters, a while back when the accuracy became better. In hindsight, I think even with a lower accuracy this strategy is sound
lower or decent accuracy,
compliance is what it is.... can we send out to everyone? is that possible? that's the question i asked when (you or) someone posted on it. wasn't an answer then.
could we be putting the full force behind it? sure. as an idea, great. what legitimately does that have in practice in getting out? start with resources and production. if there are answers on that, fantastic.
wgdsr wrote: ↑Sat Jan 02, 2021 2:34 pm
i haven't seen yet what uk's daily testing has been the last couple months, could be part of it.
but they did have a huge run in confirmed cases up to 25k/day and ran it back down to <15k in november. but in one month now looking to overrun 50k/day. that's... maybe a big problem. hopefully we catch it in its tracks here.
We don't test enough. Period.
who does?
i mean... maybe/probably? what does that look like? probably not with our lab capacity and "normal" pcr tests. more like rapid tests that are close to same accuracy. seems to me they just got recently developed as being in the same accuracy range. then big headlines "we'll be able to deploy 5 million in a month/several months" that's several days worth.
real impact on that would be moving algorithmically 10 fold or more. don't know if we have even the resource capacity to do that.
Yes. I have been reading quite a bit on the rapid antigen tests. Home models. Mina at Harvard is a huge proponent of them. In my mind he has some extremely valid points.
I have seen differing ideas on the roll out numbers. If I were king I’d be sending them out to everyone, free of charge. You wouldn’t need 100% compliance, which you would never get. Getting a certain percentage to test and similarly to just stay home if positive would continually chip away to bring R below 1. Add in the vaccines and other social mitigation strategies would, imo, get us back towards normal quicker. Death of a thousand cuts.
A random representative sample of sufficient size to allow a high confidence value would be a good start.
But it needs to be random. People who feel sick is not random.
I like your idea of sending the rapid antigen tests to everyone — with the hope they will self-report any positives. Maybe design the test so that the user has to respond with a code to see results? Then we could get some data.
“Data, data everywhere.
And not a bit to sample.”
I hope Coleridge will excuse my paraphrasing.
Not my Idea. It’s Micheal Mina’s. Read up on his stuff if you like that line of thought. He has been pushing it since last spring. I came around on it, like that matters, a while back when the accuracy became better. In hindsight, I think even with a lower accuracy this strategy is sound
lower or decent accuracy,
compliance is what it is.... can we send out to everyone? is that possible? that's the question i asked when (you or) someone posted on it. wasn't an answer then.
could we be putting the full force behind it? sure. as an idea, great. what legitimately does that have in practice in getting out? start with resources and production. if there are answers on that, fantastic.
I trust the resources and production will become available post 1/20.
We have been staggering around blind while being exhorted that everything is fine and will work out.
We (humans) can’t afford anymore of that willful stupidity or duplicity. Oh, and that’s not an exclusive “or”...
"There is nothing more difficult and more dangerous to carry through than initiating changes. One makes enemies of those who prospered under the old order, and only lukewarm support from those who would prosper under the new."
wgdsr wrote: ↑Sat Jan 02, 2021 2:34 pm
i haven't seen yet what uk's daily testing has been the last couple months, could be part of it.
but they did have a huge run in confirmed cases up to 25k/day and ran it back down to <15k in november. but in one month now looking to overrun 50k/day. that's... maybe a big problem. hopefully we catch it in its tracks here.
We don't test enough. Period.
who does?
i mean... maybe/probably? what does that look like? probably not with our lab capacity and "normal" pcr tests. more like rapid tests that are close to same accuracy. seems to me they just got recently developed as being in the same accuracy range. then big headlines "we'll be able to deploy 5 million in a month/several months" that's several days worth.
real impact on that would be moving algorithmically 10 fold or more. don't know if we have even the resource capacity to do that.
Yes. I have been reading quite a bit on the rapid antigen tests. Home models. Mina at Harvard is a huge proponent of them. In my mind he has some extremely valid points.
I have seen differing ideas on the roll out numbers. If I were king I’d be sending them out to everyone, free of charge. You wouldn’t need 100% compliance, which you would never get. Getting a certain percentage to test and similarly to just stay home if positive would continually chip away to bring R below 1. Add in the vaccines and other social mitigation strategies would, imo, get us back towards normal quicker. Death of a thousand cuts.
A random representative sample of sufficient size to allow a high confidence value would be a good start.
But it needs to be random. People who feel sick is not random.
I like your idea of sending the rapid antigen tests to everyone — with the hope they will self-report any positives. Maybe design the test so that the user has to respond with a code to see results? Then we could get some data.
“Data, data everywhere.
And not a bit to sample.”
I hope Coleridge will excuse my paraphrasing.
Not my Idea. It’s Micheal Mina’s. Read up on his stuff if you like that line of thought. He has been pushing it since last spring. I came around on it, like that matters, a while back when the accuracy became better. In hindsight, I think even with a lower accuracy this strategy is sound
lower or decent accuracy,
compliance is what it is.... can we send out to everyone? is that possible? that's the question i asked when (you or) someone posted on it. wasn't an answer then.
could we be putting the full force behind it? sure. as an idea, great. what legitimately does that have in practice in getting out? start with resources and production. if there are answers on that, fantastic.
I trust the resources and production will become available post 1/20.
We have been staggering around blind while being exhorted that everything is fine and will work out.
We (humans) can’t afford anymore of that willful stupidity or duplicity. Oh, and that’s not an exclusive “or”...
well, maybe that works.
what i've heard from the head of the snake is 100 days masking. and "more" testing.
i'm guessing the health "experts" have been involved in some decisions to date. a lot will be held over.
i'm encouraged that klain is point man in-between, and he's been thru the bad and good and pandemics seems to be a focus of what he's done and seen in the last decade. probably been well informed as that go-between.
i'd be much more enamored with an effective vaccine rollout, inclusive of distribution, in arms, approvals.
wgdsr wrote: ↑Sat Jan 02, 2021 2:34 pm
i haven't seen yet what uk's daily testing has been the last couple months, could be part of it.
but they did have a huge run in confirmed cases up to 25k/day and ran it back down to <15k in november. but in one month now looking to overrun 50k/day. that's... maybe a big problem. hopefully we catch it in its tracks here.
We don't test enough. Period.
who does?
i mean... maybe/probably? what does that look like? probably not with our lab capacity and "normal" pcr tests. more like rapid tests that are close to same accuracy. seems to me they just got recently developed as being in the same accuracy range. then big headlines "we'll be able to deploy 5 million in a month/several months" that's several days worth.
real impact on that would be moving algorithmically 10 fold or more. don't know if we have even the resource capacity to do that.
Yes. I have been reading quite a bit on the rapid antigen tests. Home models. Mina at Harvard is a huge proponent of them. In my mind he has some extremely valid points.
I have seen differing ideas on the roll out numbers. If I were king I’d be sending them out to everyone, free of charge. You wouldn’t need 100% compliance, which you would never get. Getting a certain percentage to test and similarly to just stay home if positive would continually chip away to bring R below 1. Add in the vaccines and other social mitigation strategies would, imo, get us back towards normal quicker. Death of a thousand cuts.
A random representative sample of sufficient size to allow a high confidence value would be a good start.
But it needs to be random. People who feel sick is not random.
I like your idea of sending the rapid antigen tests to everyone — with the hope they will self-report any positives. Maybe design the test so that the user has to respond with a code to see results? Then we could get some data.
“Data, data everywhere.
And not a bit to sample.”
I hope Coleridge will excuse my paraphrasing.
Not my Idea. It’s Micheal Mina’s. Read up on his stuff if you like that line of thought. He has been pushing it since last spring. I came around on it, like that matters, a while back when the accuracy became better. In hindsight, I think even with a lower accuracy this strategy is sound
lower or decent accuracy,
compliance is what it is.... can we send out to everyone? is that possible? that's the question i asked when (you or) someone posted on it. wasn't an answer then.
could we be putting the full force behind it? sure. as an idea, great. what legitimately does that have in practice in getting out? start with resources and production. if there are answers on that, fantastic.
you did. I did not have an answer then and don't have one now. I think the ability to get to "everyone" is there. "Everyone" wont be 100% but a large enough percentage to knock it back, I saw that figure one time but can not find it off the top of my head. You are certainly correct on the compliance issue, imo. The thing is, according to Mina, we need much less than full compliance...he indicates testing a large fraction of people where cases are most abundant. (right now that would be everywhere....)
This gives an idea of how it may work in a gif..... (sorry I do not know hoe to embed the gif)
everyone here and on air says "i think the ability is there". no one ever puts any evidence behind that.
i.e.: i think we should/could test everyone every week and we'll kick this thing's ass.... great post and i'm a genius that loves people and saves the world. and i'm a better, more altruistic person than you are.
you know (i hope) i am not referencing you with any disparagement. just this line of discussion in general on here is... tiring.
wgdsr wrote: ↑Sat Jan 02, 2021 6:58 pm
here is my issue, if i haven't been clear...
everyone here and on air says "i think the ability is there". no one ever puts any evidence behind that.
i.e.: i think we should/could test everyone every week and we'll kick this thing's ass.... great post and i'm a genius that loves people and saves the world. and i'm a better, more altruistic person than you are.
you know (i hope) i am not referencing you with any disparagement. just this line of discussion in general on here is... tiring.
You mean you expect a guy that fell off of a turnip truck and landed on this site to be able to advise the federal government on a pandemic response otherwise they shouldn’t spitball?
wgdsr wrote: ↑Sat Jan 02, 2021 6:58 pm
here is my issue, if i haven't been clear...
everyone here and on air says "i think the ability is there". no one ever puts any evidence behind that.
i.e.: i think we should/could test everyone every week and we'll kick this thing's ass.... great post and i'm a genius that loves people and saves the world. and i'm a better, more altruistic person than you are.
you know (i hope) i am not referencing you with any disparagement. just this line of discussion in general on here is... tiring.
You mean you expect a guy that fell off of a turnip truck and landed on this site to be able to advise the federal government on a pandemic response otherwise they shouldn’t spitball?
i expect the spitballer (not bart) to not believe they've solved covid 19.
and i bring it up with bart bc i don't expect him to react with great umbrage that i don't immediately agree they've necessarily figured out that secret sauce. on fanlax.
wgdsr wrote: ↑Sat Jan 02, 2021 6:58 pm
here is my issue, if i haven't been clear...
everyone here and on air says "i think the ability is there". no one ever puts any evidence behind that.
i.e.: i think we should/could test everyone every week and we'll kick this thing's ass.... great post and i'm a genius that loves people and saves the world. and i'm a better, more altruistic person than you are.
you know (i hope) i am not referencing you with any disparagement. just this line of discussion in general on here is... tiring.
I get what you are saying. You’ve said it before, there’s no clear answers.
There is evidence, imo. Look at the total, not number of distributed, vaccines. Ability is there. That IS evidence imo. Rollout, not do much, again imo. Do manufacturing is there.... perhaps we should look at americas clearing house for distribution? They can get that stupid sweepstakes to everyone why not home tests?
Death by a thousand cuts starts with a single slice.....
wgdsr wrote: ↑Sat Jan 02, 2021 6:58 pm
here is my issue, if i haven't been clear...
everyone here and on air says "i think the ability is there". no one ever puts any evidence behind that.
i.e.: i think we should/could test everyone every week and we'll kick this thing's ass.... great post and i'm a genius that loves people and saves the world. and i'm a better, more altruistic person than you are.
you know (i hope) i am not referencing you with any disparagement. just this line of discussion in general on here is... tiring.
You mean you expect a guy that fell off of a turnip truck and landed on this site to be able to advise the federal government on a pandemic response otherwise they shouldn’t spitball?
i expect the spitballer (not bart) to not believe they've solved covid 19.
and i bring it up with bart bc i don't expect him to react with great umbrage that i don't immediately agree they've necessarily figured out that secret sauce. on fanlax.
Solved? Not sure I have read here anyone that believes they have the strategy for “solving” COVID-19.
wgdsr wrote: ↑Sat Jan 02, 2021 6:58 pm
here is my issue, if i haven't been clear...
everyone here and on air says "i think the ability is there". no one ever puts any evidence behind that.
i.e.: i think we should/could test everyone every week and we'll kick this thing's ass.... great post and i'm a genius that loves people and saves the world. and i'm a better, more altruistic person than you are.
you know (i hope) i am not referencing you with any disparagement. just this line of discussion in general on here is... tiring.
You mean you expect a guy that fell off of a turnip truck and landed on this site to be able to advise the federal government on a pandemic response otherwise they shouldn’t spitball?
i expect the spitballer (not bart) to not believe they've solved covid 19.
and i bring it up with bart bc i don't expect him to react with great umbrage that i don't immediately agree they've necessarily figured out that secret sauce. on fanlax.
Solved? Not sure I have read here anyone that believes they have the strategy for “solving” COVID-19.
ok, tld. i'm satisfied with my back and forth with bart thus far. finishing up the grill. will be back to him when i can.
wgdsr wrote: ↑Sat Jan 02, 2021 6:58 pm
here is my issue, if i haven't been clear...
everyone here and on air says "i think the ability is there". no one ever puts any evidence behind that.
i.e.: i think we should/could test everyone every week and we'll kick this thing's ass.... great post and i'm a genius that loves people and saves the world. and i'm a better, more altruistic person than you are.
you know (i hope) i am not referencing you with any disparagement. just this line of discussion in general on here is... tiring.
You mean you expect a guy that fell off of a turnip truck and landed on this site to be able to advise the federal government on a pandemic response otherwise they shouldn’t spitball?
i expect the spitballer (not bart) to not believe they've solved covid 19.
and i bring it up with bart bc i don't expect him to react with great umbrage that i don't immediately agree they've necessarily figured out that secret sauce. on fanlax.
Solved? Not sure I have read here anyone that believes they have the strategy for “solving” COVID-19.
ok, tld. i'm satisfied with my back and forth with bart thus far. finishing up the grill. will be back to him when i can.
"There is nothing more difficult and more dangerous to carry through than initiating changes. One makes enemies of those who prospered under the old order, and only lukewarm support from those who would prosper under the new."
"There is nothing more difficult and more dangerous to carry through than initiating changes. One makes enemies of those who prospered under the old order, and only lukewarm support from those who would prosper under the new."
wgdsr wrote: ↑Sat Jan 02, 2021 6:58 pm
here is my issue, if i haven't been clear...
everyone here and on air says "i think the ability is there". no one ever puts any evidence behind that.
i.e.: i think we should/could test everyone every week and we'll kick this thing's ass.... great post and i'm a genius that loves people and saves the world. and i'm a better, more altruistic person than you are.
you know (i hope) i am not referencing you with any disparagement. just this line of discussion in general on here is... tiring.
You mean you expect a guy that fell off of a turnip truck and landed on this site to be able to advise the federal government on a pandemic response otherwise they shouldn’t spitball?
i expect the spitballer (not bart) to not believe they've solved covid 19.
and i bring it up with bart bc i don't expect him to react with great umbrage that i don't immediately agree they've necessarily figured out that secret sauce. on fanlax.
Solved? Not sure I have read here anyone that believes they have the strategy for “solving” COVID-19.
ok, tld. i'm satisfied with my back and forth with bart thus far. finishing up the grill. will be back to him when i can.
What did you grill?
a couple pound? slab of salmon. mom-in-law loves salmon. they made me slightly overcook. marinated in olive oil and squeezed lemons.
paired with steamed broccoli and microwaved mashed potatoes.
and a 94 rated argentinian cab. chosen by rating only and certainly not as a partner to the above.
wgdsr wrote: ↑Sat Jan 02, 2021 6:58 pm
here is my issue, if i haven't been clear...
everyone here and on air says "i think the ability is there". no one ever puts any evidence behind that.
i.e.: i think we should/could test everyone every week and we'll kick this thing's ass.... great post and i'm a genius that loves people and saves the world. and i'm a better, more altruistic person than you are.
you know (i hope) i am not referencing you with any disparagement. just this line of discussion in general on here is... tiring.
I get what you are saying. You’ve said it before, there’s no clear answers.
There is evidence, imo. Look at the total, not number of distributed, vaccines. Ability is there. That IS evidence imo. Rollout, not do much, again imo. Do manufacturing is there.... perhaps we should look at americas clearing house for distribution? They can get that stupid sweepstakes to everyone why not home tests?
Death by a thousand cuts starts with a single slice.....
let's just say i'm dubious on everything government run. distribution. compliance.
production is a mystery.
if ed mcmahon can make it to our doorstep, and everyone can buy a coke tomorrow if they want one, should it be available? sure. in theory.
wgdsr wrote: ↑Sat Jan 02, 2021 6:00 pm
i'd be much more enamored with an effective vaccine rollout, inclusive of distribution, in arms, approvals.
Yes. And we discussed this over the summer. Did the Federal Government throw its shoulder into that effort.
Can you point to a story where the Feds expanded the ability to manufacture ( building manufacturing infrastructure) the vaccine exponentially from where it was before the pandemic?
Not distribute the vaccines. Manufacture them in the first place.
I can't either. Why? Because we didn't do that, that's why.
wgdsr wrote: ↑Sat Jan 02, 2021 6:58 pm
here is my issue, if i haven't been clear...
everyone here and on air says "i think the ability is there". no one ever puts any evidence behind that.
i.e.: i think we should/could test everyone every week and we'll kick this thing's ass.... great post and i'm a genius that loves people and saves the world. and i'm a better, more altruistic person than you are.
you know (i hope) i am not referencing you with any disparagement. just this line of discussion in general on here is... tiring.
You mean you expect a guy that fell off of a turnip truck and landed on this site to be able to advise the federal government on a pandemic response otherwise they shouldn’t spitball?
i expect the spitballer (not bart) to not believe they've solved covid 19.
and i bring it up with bart bc i don't expect him to react with great umbrage that i don't immediately agree they've necessarily figured out that secret sauce. on fanlax.
Solved? Not sure I have read here anyone that believes they have the strategy for “solving” COVID-19.
ok, tld. i'm satisfied with my back and forth with bart thus far. finishing up the grill. will be back to him when i can.
What did you grill?
a couple pound? slab of salmon. mom-in-law loves salmon. they made me slightly overcook. marinated in olive oil and squeezed lemons.
paired with steamed broccoli and microwaved mashed potatoes.
and a 94 rated argentinian cab. chosen by rating only and certainly not as a partner to the above.
ardilla would have my ass.
Right up my alley. I would rather drink beer though.
