ODAC 2023

[JustOneTime]

I don't believe the gap is as big as you are insinuating. Look at a guy like Tyler Gallagher in 21' for Lynchburg. Had 2 goals, 52 GB, 22 CT in 21 games. Yes, one is an LSM & one was at close, but stats don't tell the whole story. Gallagher was 6'3, 215. Both prototypical size in a D1 defenseman. But, Greene plays in a conference where there is little, to no competition on the same level as York. On paper, Greene looks like the guy you would take but I think most would take Gallagher.

Hubbard had 48 GB & 19 CT in 22', very similar numbers to Gallagher, who was a first team AA & probably should have been DPOY that year. Factor in that most teams initiate their offenses from the midfield & Hubbard doesn't play in the middle of the field (where a lot of CT's & GB's happen) it is easy to see why the numbers are different. While both players are great in their own right, I just feel that for defenseman especially, stats don't tell the whole story.

I wouldn’t put too much stock in that LSM positional/statistical advantage idea. 2022 was Greene’s first year at LSM…

As for strength of competition, last year when York faced #3 CNU in the elite 8, CNU lead the nation in GBs per game. York out ground balled them- and was lead that day in GBs by, you guessed it, Ethan Greene.

Both are great players in their own right, on that much I will agree. Stats don’t tell the whole story, they are the story. Who won the game? Check the score. Who scored the most? Check that stat. Who picked up the most GBs? Check that stat. Etc etc.

I disagree that stats tell the whole story or are the story. I have seen stat sheets that say a defender had 0 GB's and 0 CT's and yet that defender covered a #1 attackman the whole game giving up only one goal but forcing and harassing that #1 attackman to take many bad shots and forcing him to give up the ball to his teammates. The other defenders on his team had more GB's and CT's on the stat sheet but if you watched the game you could tell who was the most valuable player - not the guy with the "stats".

[DeepPocket]

I disagree that stats tell the whole story or are the story. I have seen stat sheets that say a defender had 0 GB's and 0 CT's and yet that defender covered a #1 attackman the whole game giving up only one goal but forcing and harassing that #1 attackman to take many bad shots and forcing him to give up the ball to his teammates. The other defenders on his team had more GB's and CT's on the stat sheet but if you watched the game you could tell who was the most valuable player - not the guy with the "stats".

I understand what you’re saying, but what do you suggest that an uninvolved party looks at after the fact to figure out who dominated a year or a game? Personal feelings and beliefs? Conjecture?

[ShenandoahLaxDad]

I disagree that stats tell the whole story or are the story. I have seen stat sheets that say a defender had 0 GB's and 0 CT's and yet that defender covered a #1 attackman the whole game giving up only one goal but forcing and harassing that #1 attackman to take many bad shots and forcing him to give up the ball to his teammates. The other defenders on his team had more GB's and CT's on the stat sheet but if you watched the game you could tell who was the most valuable player - not the guy with the "stats".

I understand what you’re saying, but what do you suggest that an uninvolved party looks at after the fact to figure out who dominated a year or a game? Personal feelings and beliefs? Conjecture?

By your logic, Jared Nelson who played at Pfeiffer should have been the POY for D3 in 2021 when they played one ranked team & lost by 15 goals. He led the country in points that year and broke the career point record. Its simply not that black and white.

[DeepPocket]

By your logic, Jared Nelson who played at Pfeiffer should have been the POY for D3 in 2021 when they played one ranked team & lost by 15 goals. He led the country in points that year and broke the career point record. Its simply not that black and white.

That’s a bad strawman take. It’s like me transposing the opposing view to “by your logic” say that if Ferrara doesn’t accumulate points he would still be worthy of POY because he drew the top cover man and early slides, there by opening things up for his team. It’s silly, and it’s extreme.

By my logic, or rather BY THE STATS, Nelson lead the country in points. If there was another player, with a comparable resume of opponents etc, and you were to pick the better of the two, would you not look to their stats?

When considering comparable and within reason player options for any accolade, they will undoubtedly be viewed through the lens of their statistics.

And BTW, check the old posts. I did think that Nelson deserved an accolade. I was in favor of an AA of some level because of his accomplishments.

Anyone have a take on this part of what I said?

I wouldn’t put too much stock in that LSM positional/statistical advantage idea. 2022 was Greene’s first year at LSM…

As for strength of competition, last year when York faced #3 CNU in the elite 8, CNU lead the nation in GBs per game. York out ground balled them- and was lead that day in GBs by… you guessed it, Ethan Greene….

Or have we fully switched from “the stats are skewed” to “the stats shouldn’t matter” ?

[BallHunt]

On the use of stats - To kickoff my 2023 preseason rankings I combined about 5 different stats per team based on 2022. On a team's Goal Differential I subtracted goals leaving the team, ie seniors goals from 2022, and applied that ranking.

I used:
FO ranking
Goal differential ranking, adjusted for departing goals
Clearing ranking
Turnovers ranking
Win percentage 2022
Conference adjustment (simple subjective multiplier)

This produced a ranking that looks believable, but with a few teams appearing too high and a few too low. Made subjective changes on those and voila.

Gotta start somewhere.

[Hardhat]

Welcome back D'hunt. I have missed your insight.

Does anyone have any news of the W&L-Richmond scrimmage yesterday?

W&L vs York in less than a week. Big test for both teams. York should be favored by 5 or 6. An outcome of anything closer (or a W&L win) could mean an up year for W&L or a down year for York

We will find out early in the season

seems like W&L may have a few more holes to fill especially on the defensive side with the loss of Spags and 4 of 6 defenders (both SSDM and 2 at close) York dominated the faceoff's last year and could do the same this year but the will not have to see the brick wall that was Spags again. So as I see it

game day
FOGO advantage York
W&L Off v York Def advantage York
W&L Defense v York Off. advantage W&L ( W&L has the best defender on the field)
goal - both will have new guys so this is a push

This will be a close game I think but, I think York pulls out a close low scoring game.

You are crazy if you don't think York's Ethan Greene is best defender on the field. Heck, he is probably the best player on the field. 6'5 225 and has had 120 GB's, 60 CT's, 14 Goals and 7 Assists in the last 2 years. Hubbard is good, but most colleges would take Greene in a heart beat

I don't believe the gap is as big as you are insinuating. Look at a guy like Tyler Gallagher in 21' for Lynchburg. Had 2 goals, 52 GB, 22 CT in 21 games. Yes, one is an LSM & one was at close, but stats don't tell the whole story. Gallagher was 6'3, 215. Both prototypical size in a D1 defenseman. But, Greene plays in a conference where there is little, to no competition on the same level as York. On paper, Greene looks like the guy you would take but I think most would take Gallagher.

Hubbard had 48 GB & 19 CT in 22', very similar numbers to Gallagher, who was a first team AA & probably should have been DPOY that year. Factor in that most teams initiate their offenses from the midfield & Hubbard doesn't play in the middle of the field (where a lot of CT's & GB's happen) it is easy to see why the numbers are different. While both players are great in their own right, I just feel that for defenseman especially, stats don't tell the whole story.

If you look at stats alone Shenandoah had 2 guys with better stats LSM Bradley Holt with 53gb and 21ct and close D Robert Harvey had 54gb and 27ct. Along with a Guilford pole Wyatt Dwyer who went 48gb and 30ct

[ShenandoahLaxDad]

By your logic, Jared Nelson who played at Pfeiffer should have been the POY for D3 in 2021 when they played one ranked team & lost by 15 goals. He led the country in points that year and broke the career point record. Its simply not that black and white.

That’s a bad strawman take. It’s like me transposing the opposing view to “by your logic” say that if Ferrara doesn’t accumulate points he would still be worthy of POY because he drew the top cover man and early slides, there by opening things up for his team. It’s silly, and it’s extreme.

By my logic, or rather BY THE STATS, Nelson lead the country in points. If there was another player, with a comparable resume of opponents etc, and you were to pick the better of the two, would you not look to their stats?

When considering comparable and within reason player options for any accolade, they will undoubtedly be viewed through the lens of their statistics.

And BTW, check the old posts. I did think that Nelson deserved an accolade. I was in favor of an AA of some level because of his accomplishments.

Anyone have a take on this part of what I said?

I wouldn’t put too much stock in that LSM positional/statistical advantage idea. 2022 was Greene’s first year at LSM…

As for strength of competition, last year when York faced #3 CNU in the elite 8, CNU lead the nation in GBs per game. York out ground balled them- and was lead that day in GBs by… you guessed it, Ethan Greene….

Or have we fully switched from “the stats are skewed” to “the stats shouldn’t matter” ?

You allow for strawman takes when your logic is black and white. The game is not black and white. In my original post I stated that stats for defensemen do not tell the whole story.

How do we determine comparable & within reason when there are so many teams in D3 & SOS is all over the place? I assume you mean level of play of the team the player is on? Nelson & Ferrara are not comparable for statistics then because of the vast difference in level of play for their teams.

As for your stab at the part you felt I did not answer. stats are 100% skewed for defensemen and LSM's. Greene runs off the wing, then plays most defensive possessions, a close defenseman only plays defensive possessions. The majority of face-offs allow for an opportunity at a GB. If a player has 20 opportunities at a GB vs a player who has only 5 opportunities, id imagine the guy with 20 opportunities will have more. Go look at the leaders in GB's in the country, usually F/O guys or LSM's. Plus look at Greene's stats from the year he played close to LSM, he doubled his GB numbers.

Stats are 100% skewed. They help paint the picture, but not the entire picture.

[DeepPocket]

You allow for strawman takes when your logic is black and white. The game is not black and white. In my original post I stated that stats for defensemen do not tell the whole story.

Fair statement.

How do we determine comparable & within reason when there are so many teams in D3 & SOS is all over the place? I assume you mean level of play of the team the player is on? Nelson & Ferrara are not comparable for statistics then because of the vast difference in level of play for their teams.

My Ferrara hypothetical (which you rightly nullify having specified defensemen only) was in response to the example applying my logic to Nelson, and meant to highlight and mirror what I thought was a silly transposing of someone’s logic to an extreme. (Clearly Nelson’s resume wouldn’t put him in the comparable conversation for POY)

As far as how to tell who is comparable within reason, you as a fair and reasonable person seem to have been able to answer that question yourself using logic. That’s my point, that these two defensive players are comparable within reason to one another, and therefore you go to tangibles. Imagine you didn’t have a dog in the fight and didn’t watch W&L games to see that an absence or lacking of stats constitutes a clear on-field contribution.

As for your stab at the part you felt I did not answer. stats are 100% skewed for defensemen and LSM's. Greene runs off the wing, then plays most defensive possessions, a close defenseman only plays defensive possessions. The majority of face-offs allow for an opportunity at a GB. If a player has 20 opportunities at a GB vs a player who has only 5 opportunities, id imagine the guy with 20 opportunities will have more. Go look at the leaders in GB's in the country, usually F/O guys or LSM's. Plus look at Greene's stats from the year he played close to LSM, he doubled his GB numbers.

Stats are 100% skewed. They help paint the picture, but not the entire picture.

Not to argue semantics, but I didn’t feel that you didn’t answer it…

Greene only started at LSM last year. And in his year prior (21’) starting at close, he brought in 4 goals 2 assists 37 GBs and 39 CTOs. He wasn’t York’s top shut down man. I don’t know if Hubbard was for W&L that year (21’) either, but he started at close too, yielding 1 assist 23 GBs and 12 CTOs.

That year I don’t think I watched Hubbard play, so how do I gauge how he performed? You guessed it, I CHECK THE STATS. To anybody who didn’t watch a player in question play, numbers are quite literally the way to check someone’s performance.

All that said, I think you’ve made some valid arguments, and I will try to look at things in a less black and white manner going forward. But if you ask me who the best defenseman in DIII was in 1996, the first and likely only place I’ll be able to look are the accolades &
stats... the story as it is written I suppose.

[Nothinbutthelax]

Noke should handle Sewanee - Transfer Goud #22 and fresh #40 good strong additions at midfield balance attention Kammerman sees. 15-8

York handles W&L - Game in Lexington helps the Gennies but York closes door in 2nd half 14-7.

HSC should handle Southern VA whose rooster seems light. HSC firepower is ? - 12-5

LYN at St. Mary’s- good test but LYN wears them down 16-7
Darminio at 6’3” 200lbs dominates wing on FOs and transition.

[Nothinbutthelax]

W&L deserves this one..York goalie only one making plays in the 4th.. W&L out hustling all over field

[KnowingWizardofODAC]

W&L deserves this one..York goalie only one making plays in the 4th.. W&L out hustling all over field

W&L paying off the refs no question.

[KnowingWizardofODAC]

Would you guys agree that Pilat, if he cannot get a ranked win this year would be placed on the hot seat?

[Nothinbutthelax]

Down goes da Spartans!
Bravo W&L, way to rep!

[Dehuntshigwa’es]

ODAC needs these type of out of conference wins to stay healthy. Good start for the ODAC

[Leonard Washington]

Would you guys agree that Pilat, if he cannot get a ranked win this year would be placed on the hot seat?

No.

He will be there as long as he chooses to be (unless there is something dramatic off the field involving his team)

[ShenandoahLaxDad]

Great win for W&L. I assume this win will be extremely valuable for them come the end of the year if they need an at large bid. I am sure Coach K is taking notice of this game for conference play.

Side note, Greene had 2 GB & 1 CTO, Hubbard 2 GB & 1 CTO. As we know, stats aren't the whole story but bodes to the statement that the gap between the two isn't that large. One game, but interesting to look at.

I believe this win just made conference play all that more interesting & beneficial for the conference. The ODAC is 100% at its best when the top 4 are ranked.

[JustOneTime]

Great win for W&L. Anytime an ODAC team can win a big game it makes the conference look good.

As far as stats go, my question is who keeps them during a game. Is it an employee of the home team, a student volunteer? Do some teams not care about the stats as much as others? I was watching a game this weekend and I saw a kid clearly take the ball away from a player (CT), I saw that kid clearly throw an errant pass(TO), and I saw that same kid clearly pick up two balls out of scrums and then run the ball up field both times(2GB's). Yet when I look at the stat line for the game today that kid had 0 GB's, 0 CT and 0 TO. How do we measure players against other players if they can't keep the stats properly?

[Nothinbutthelax]

4-0 OOC was great. Hard to repeat this week but possible.

HSC hosts Denison- Should be close game. Some motivation to knock off Koch coming out of ODAC. Both teams coming off similar results vs. weaker teams. Advantage being at HSC on that slick field..

NOKE - Dickinson @ USA lax neutral site- Sunday game of the week. Offense will be tested and hope Brandau is off. Defense and composure not often used in same sentence and if they give up 4-5 man-ups they fall harder to the Red Devils. Pilat is a legend and will not be shown the door. I’d you look at this roster they are young so future looks bright.

LYN - Cabrini @ Cabrini. LYN is young and had 20 TO’s vs St. Mary’s. Most by 2 freshman and Soph. attack. LYN plays fast and pushes transition.. they will adjust and settle in. Darminio is a dominate LSM and has green light.. Cole Nestor still sidelined but Barnes #35 is back. 2 converted poles, sr #25 and freshman #31 saw most time. Cabrini could expose here but LYN goal play by Hadley will stop enough. LYN toyed with a 10 man ride Saturday. Thinking this will be a 2 or 3 goal game.

W&L will roll @ Catholic. Impressed with adjustments after half. Hubbard did a great job in Mayer and had many of those non stat. plays. He is as advertised. Well coached and disciplined and balanced offense.. 8 of 11 goals were assisted vs. York. They were fast in transition, scrappy on FOs. 24 shots in 2nd half. If that 2nd team shows up against anyone watch out!

[River Donkey]

Looks like the benches may have cleared in the Ferrum game this weekend. Anyone in ODAC land have any intel on that??

[ShenandoahLaxDad]

4-0 OOC was great. Hard to repeat this week but possible.

HSC hosts Denison- Should be close game. Some motivation to knock off Koch coming out of ODAC. Both teams coming off similar results vs. weaker teams. Advantage being at HSC on that slick field..

NOKE - Dickinson @ USA lax neutral site- Sunday game of the week. Offense will be tested and hope Brandau is off. Defense and composure not often used in same sentence and if they give up 4-5 man-ups they fall harder to the Red Devils. Pilat is a legend and will not be shown the door. I’d you look at this roster they are young so future looks bright.

LYN - Cabrini @ Cabrini. LYN is young and had 20 TO’s vs St. Mary’s. Most by 2 freshman and Soph. attack. LYN plays fast and pushes transition.. they will adjust and settle in. Darminio is a dominate LSM and has green light.. Cole Nestor still sidelined but Barnes #35 is back. 2 converted poles, sr #25 and freshman #31 saw most time. Cabrini could expose here but LYN goal play by Hadley will stop enough. LYN toyed with a 10 man ride Saturday. Thinking this will be a 2 or 3 goal game.

W&L will roll @ Catholic. Impressed with adjustments after half. Hubbard did a great job in Mayer and had many of those non stat. plays. He is as advertised. Well coached and disciplined and balanced offense.. 8 of 11 goals were assisted vs. York. They were fast in transition, scrappy on FOs. 24 shots in 2nd half. If that 2nd team shows up against anyone watch out!

Will be good tests for HSC & Noke this weekend. Thinking we'll be able to get a great read on both of them. Brandau is good but not sure if i'm completely sold on Dickinson. They were 18-0 going into the tournament last year, then lost by 10 goals to Gettysburg as the top seed in their portion of the bracket. Pretty sure they return a lot of guys, so will be a good test for Noke.

Interested to see how Cabrini goes for Lynchburg. Saw some of the St. Mary's game, the freshman and soph on attack play well together. The mistakes made are typical for freshman and sophomores, they should only improve over time. Hadley is a brick wall in the cage, big kid with the ability to just somehow make saves. Not really sure how Cabrini is. Thinking Lynchburg needs to lean on their older guys to get it done. Will be important for them to get out of there with a win as they are entering a very, very difficult stretch. They are, @ Cabrini, Salisbury, Stevenson, @ Tufts, then St. Lawrence, & F&M at Mustang Classic, then @ W&L. Important to note they also play that tufts, St. Lawrence & F&M in a 5 day stretch.

W&L is now playing with house money. Don't think many expected them to win against York. They have some big games coming up too, @ Denison, this game is even more difficult because of Koch being there. Then Gettysburg, and then games against CNU & Lynchburg back to back. Interested to see if they can keep their rhythm going but they seem to have all the momentum going into the beginning of their system.