Elon Musk’s Twitter Takeover Faces Choppy Debt Markets
Debt investors are demanding better yields on risky paper than they were a few months ago
By Alexander Saeedy and Alexander Gladstone
Oct. 5, 2022 6:11 pm ET
With the continuing market turmoil, investors might not be willing to buy Twitter’s debt unless it comes at a discount, analysts say.
Photo: Gregory Bull/Associated Press
Elon Musk’s ability to raise debt for his revived takeover of Twitter Inc. is likely to face turbulence in a market that has become less receptive than it was a few months ago.
Mr. Musk would need roughly $13 billion of debt as secondary market conditions remain exceptionally tough for high-yield debt.
In a recent deal to take Citrix Systems Inc. private, banks sold $4 billion in bonds backing the transaction at a 16% discount, resulting in about $500 million in losses as investors failed to show enough interest in the original terms of the deal, The Wall Street Journal has reported. The banks sold a further $4.1 billion leveraged loan related to the Citrix deal at a 9% discount to face value, with losses of more than $100 million.
With the continuing market turmoil, investors might not be willing to buy Twitter’s debt unless it comes at a discount, analysts said.
Daniel Ives, an analyst at Wedbush Securities Inc., said “the environment has changed so dramatically from where they locked in the [Twitter] deal to where it is today,” noting the decline in the leveraged-loan and high-yield markets over the past several months. “It’s going to be ugly pricing,” Mr. Ives said.
Ratings firms haven’t spelled out what rating they would give to the social-media company with its new $13 billion debt load, split between loans and bonds.
S&P Global Ratings, which had assigned a BB+ rating to Twitter before accounting for the impact of the buyout, has said that it expects to “lower the rating by multiple notches due to increased leverage” as the result of Mr. Musk’s deal, pushing Twitter’s credit rating toward the lower end of speculative grade.
That would likely cause the company’s cost of borrowing to jump higher than what investors think is sustainable.
Twitter plans to raise junior debt as part of the new financing, and strategists at Bank of America Corp. recently estimated that credits rated CCC have spreads over Treasurys of about 13 percentage points, compared with 6.6 percentage points at the beginning of the year. Single-B-rated paper currently has spreads of less than 6 percentage points, compared to around 3 percentage points earlier in the year. Spreads over Treasurys refer to the difference between the interest rate for a U.S. government bond and how much companies have to pay to borrow.
Higher borrowing costs are causing difficulties for deals already in the market. Latam Airlines Group SA, the South American airline, has been struggling to sell $2.25 billion in debt to finance its exit from bankruptcy, people familiar with the matter said.
Analysts said a softer debt market may ultimately prove a crucial element that contributes to the Federal Reserve easing monetary policy over the long run as a slower pace of financing leads to lower corporate spending and fewer mergers and acquisitions.
“Excessive tightening in credit conditions is likely to become the key factor that forces the Fed to accept a slower pace of policy tightening going forward,” credit strategists said in a BofA Global Research report. “With credit stress approaching critical levels, now is the time to put emphasis on risk management. This means a slower pace of rate hikes at immediate upcoming meetings and a potential pause subsequently, to allow the economy to fully adjust to all the extreme tightening,” the analysts wrote.
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