With Scholarship Limits Ending, Who Makes a Push in the Next 3-4 Years?

[LiveLaxLove]

Knowing that recruiting is now only limited by roster counts versus scholarship totals, and considering how much a school is willing to invest in players, who do you all put on the map to emerge as top programs in WLax in the next 3-4 years? Who falls off the most?

For me...

Emerge:
Ohio State, Clemson, and FSU (if they start the program)

Michigan and Florida will definitely stay on top as well.

Fall Off:
Penn, Boston College, and Syracuse

I think Stanford, Yale, and Duke will have a rough go at it as well.

Let’s look at the ACC schools you mention using the data they have to submit on their sports programs to the government each year (along with Ohio State). Remember too, that Title IX states that opportunity should be in percentage to student population at school. So if school is 55% women, the slots and aid should be 55%. Also, that the Women’s Sports Federation states 86% of NCAA institutions are not in compliance with Title IX today.

Clemson – Athletes 292 Male/244 Female. Women athletic aid 46% of total aid. Total sports Revenue $152m. Women Direct Athletic expense $16m (coach/aid/recruiting/operating expense but excludes allocations). Women direct expense % of revenue 10.5%

Boston College - Athletes 353 Male/358 Female. Women athletic aid 48%. Total sports Revenue $118m. Women Direct Athletic expense $22m. Women direct expense % of revenue 18.6%

Syracuse - Athletes 298 Male/267 Female. Women athletic aid 49%. Total sports Revenue $113m. Women Direct Athletic expense $20m. Women direct expense % of revenue 17.7%

Ohio State - Athletes 521 Male/468 Female. Women athletic aid 45%. Total sports Revenue $250m. Women Direct Athletic expense $27m. Women direct expense % of revenue 10.8%

I have no idea what the new rules will mean and not trying to be “sky is falling”. But if Power 5 schools have to give $20M annually out of their budget, something has got to give. At Syracuse and BC overall, $20M out of $115m sports revenue is HUGE number. Either have to rethink Aid, expenses, number of teams or all the above. What sports it may impact is anyone’s guess, but I would rather be facing these decisions with a revenue stream of $150m at Clemson rather than $115m at BC and Syracuse. Especially if some predictions are correct that this $20m somehow undercuts Title IX if not "deemed" as Aid.

I added Ohio State above as well as you can also see why Clemson and other more attractive ACC teams want out and move to the Big 10 or SEC with larger TV contracts and more revenue. If (a big if with legal fights to come) the more attractive ACC teams leave, Syracuse and BC will be left behind and fall into a mid-major conference and would see their revenue cut in half.

Here is the link. You can view any school out there
https://ope.ed.gov/athletics/#/institution/search

Great post! Completely agree.

[spidey44]

Unless I missed something, isn't this all speculation at this point? I mean yes they ruled in the courts to allow schools to pay athletes, etc, but I'm guessing this all has to go through a boatload of red tape before anything is official. Or did it just magically go into effect?

[hmmm]

Unless I missed something, isn't this all speculation at this point? I mean yes they ruled in the courts to allow schools to pay athletes, etc, but I'm guessing this all has to go through a boatload of red tape before anything is official. Or did it just magically go into effect?

There's no way this is in effect for the 2025/26 academic year. The judge hasn't approved the settlement and there could always be appeals. There will still be scholarship limits for this coming year. They can't just suddenly put roster caps in place when rosters for next year are basically set other than portal activity. They aren't going to pull scholarships from incoming freshman that have already signed NLIs and they aren't going to make coaches kick players off the roster with no notice.

[spidey44]

Unless I missed something, isn't this all speculation at this point? I mean yes they ruled in the courts to allow schools to pay athletes, etc, but I'm guessing this all has to go through a boatload of red tape before anything is official. Or did it just magically go into effect?

There's no way this is in effect for the 2025/26 academic year. The judge hasn't approved the settlement and there could always be appeals. There will still be scholarship limits for this coming year. They can't just suddenly put roster caps in place when rosters for next year are basically set other than portal activity. They aren't going to pull scholarships from incoming freshman that have already signed NLIs and they aren't going to make coaches kick players off the roster with no notice.

Thank you... seems like everyone is really overanalyzing a situation that has SOOOOOOOO many unanswered questions right now.

[LiveLaxLove]

Unless I missed something, isn't this all speculation at this point? I mean yes they ruled in the courts to allow schools to pay athletes, etc, but I'm guessing this all has to go through a boatload of red tape before anything is official. Or did it just magically go into effect?

Scholarship limits are extinct after this year. The recruiting class signing in November will be the first the experience this change. Many collegiate athletic departments are already operating this way... if they can afford it.

[njbill]

Do you know of any schools that have decided to fund beyond 12 for wlax?

[hmmm]

Do you know of any schools that have decided to fund beyond 12 for wlax?

They can't yet. I just don't see why schools would sink more money into a sport that loses money to begin with, even if they can. They are going to be struggling to make these payments as it is. They're going to have to cut back on travel, facility improvements, etc to even afford them.

[cdb]

Any of the schools who play Division 1 football, award 85 scholarships -- add that to other sports such as basketball, baseball, track and field, Lacrosse, Soccer, Swim and Dive, and many other minor sports, and are required to spend like amounts on women sports. Football pays the bills for most. So, why would they eliminate LAX -- what other women sport would they spend the money on? The only way to avoid the financia duresss, is to de-emphasize or eliminate football. Football schools have to spend money on women sports whether they are profitable or not.

One could argue that all college sports should be at the club or intramural level. I hope that doesn't happen. It may if the courts agree that they are employees. But that hasn't happened -- least not yet.

WLAX is growing -- interest is growing -- let's hope this continues -- that the women sport develops into a full season professional league -- etc. And for goodness sakes, increase the cost of a ticket to see see of the best college tilts to more than the cost of acupuncture of coffee.

[cdb]

Mea Culpa -- I meant to say increase the cost of a ticket

[suffolk]

Per Mit Winter
@WinterSportsLaw

Ohio St’s AD confirms it will pay all of the $22M in NIL comp allowed to be paid to its athletes.

He also says they plan to pay proportionally to the school’s male/female student population.

Which means NIL collectives will come in to provide additional comp in some sports.

[suffolk]

Mit Winter
@WinterSportsLaw
·
1h
Yep.

A $22M payroll will become the new baseline to compete in college athletics.

[West Coaster]

Unless I missed something, isn't this all speculation at this point? I mean yes they ruled in the courts to allow schools to pay athletes, etc, but I'm guessing this all has to go through a boatload of red tape before anything is official. Or did it just magically go into effect?

Scholarship limits are extinct after this year. The recruiting class signing in November will be the first the experience this change. Many collegiate athletic departments are already operating this way... if they can afford it.

Scholarship limits remain. They may go away for 25-26 season concurrent with the proposed House settlement, but that's all it is at this point a proposed settlement of general terms. More secific terms are in the works. Don't expect that for months. Even after the details of the settlement are resolved, the judge has to agree to the settlement. I would not expect a slam dunk on this. Don't be surprised if scholarship limits remain for yet another year.

[forthelaxofit]

Per Mit Winter
@WinterSportsLaw

Ohio St’s AD confirms it will pay all of the $22M in NIL comp allowed to be paid to its athletes.

He also says they plan to pay proportionally to the school’s male/female student population.

Which means NIL collectives will come in to provide additional comp in some sports.

And the AD Bjork is saying this is scheduled to start in the Fall 2025. So at least 1 school not sitting back just waiting for Class Action settlement but actually out front and planning for this. (he also says the money will not be spent equally by sport or athlete). If Ohio State does this for Fall 2025, hard to believe other major revenue programs don't follow.

[njbill]

Boy, I sure hope this NIL proposal is challenged by someone or that the NCAA steps in and disallows it.

The idea behind legalizing NIL payments was that it was unfair that an athlete (such as a Caitlin Clark) who could earn money off of his or her name wasn’t permitted to do so. Begrudgingly, I can accept that.

But now wealthy donors have put together a scheme whereby they “buy up” alleged NIL rights, the result of which is there is now a slush fund to pay athletes beyond the level and type of payments that were legal in the past.

Why should Johnny, the fifth string center on a football team, or Susie, the 35th player on a lacrosse roster, get any NIL money unless they can negotiate such deals on their own, which, of course they can’t.

Or, why shouldn’t all college students get a piece of the NIL slush fund?

I’ve been saying for a long time that college athletes are professionals. They are paid to play. If this NIL proposal actually comes to fruition, there will no longer be any question about that.

[wgdsr]

Any of the schools who play Division 1 football, award 85 scholarships -- add that to other sports such as basketball, baseball, track and field, Lacrosse, Soccer, Swim and Dive, and many other minor sports, and are required to spend like amounts on women sports. Football pays the bills for most. So, why would they eliminate LAX -- what other women sport would they spend the money on? The only way to avoid the financia duresss, is to de-emphasize or eliminate football. Football schools have to spend money on women sports whether they are profitable or not.

One could argue that all college sports should be at the club or intramural level. I hope that doesn't happen. It may if the courts agree that they are employees. But that hasn't happened -- least not yet.

WLAX is growing -- interest is growing -- let's hope this continues -- that the women sport develops into a full season professional league -- etc. And for goodness sakes, increase the cost of a ticket to see see of the best college tilts to more than the cost of acupuncture of coffee.

schools are not required to spend like amounts on women's sports. otherwise.... they would be. ohio state spends much, much, much more money on men's sports than they do women's.

women's sports, however, are relatively safe for the time being until all the white shoes figure out how to cut out football and basketball from title ix requirements.

[cdb]

Title Nine began in 1972 -- Colleges have not been able to change the requirements since then. Doubt they can do it now. Most of the changes lately have to do with what is gender -- not how much we have to pay each gender.

Folks sometimes do not understand college finances. Many schools have negative athletic budgets, but that does not mean they do not have great finances as colleges and universities -- esepicailly private colleges whose finances are not open to public scrutiny.

Decisions about women LAX will come down to what many of these colleges want to spend -- not on if they can spend.

As everyone has been saying -- these next few years will be pivotable to all college sports.

[West Coaster]

Per Mit Winter
@WinterSportsLaw

Ohio St’s AD confirms it will pay all of the $22M in NIL comp allowed to be paid to its athletes.

He also says they plan to pay proportionally to the school’s male/female student population.

Which means NIL collectives will come in to provide additional comp in some sports.

There's also this from the Ohio State AD:

At Ohio State, that includes "stratification" of sports in the future. The term is also known as "tiering," where the future reallocation of funds will cause some sports to be deemphasized.

At the bottom end, some Ohio State sports will be non-scholarship, which means no financial aid.

" … No summer school aid, no Alston aid, low salaries for coaches," Smith told CBS Sports. "You change your expectations [because] you're not going to pay the same. It's a whole series of different things to save dollars."

Those deemphasized sports will play more regionally, likely traveling by bus instead of flying.

After that, the middle tier will be a mix of scholarship and non-scholarship sports. Currently, the NCAA allows full roster scholarships in only five sports: football, men's and women's basketball, women's volleyball and women's tennis. The rest are so-called "equivalency sports" where scholarships can be shared across a spectrum.
The top tier will be fully funded, of course, starting with football, basketball and whatever the third-most popular sport is in any given conference.

"Then you have to pick what you're good at historically," Smith said. "[In evaluating how to prioritize sports], you start with how many schools in your state sponsor that sport. How many Big Ten schools sponsor that sport? How many NCAA teams are there?"

After the 2029 fiscal year, Ohio State is estimated to save $8 million per year with those moves. (The savings won't hit until 2029 because current scholarships will have to run their course.) The money could be rolled over into paying for some of the revenue sharing payouts.

Ohio State will not be alone in stratification. It has been talked about in college sports for a while. Smith said there is no plan to cut sports at Ohio State, but other schools will have to make their own decisions. Those that have recently cut sports have faced legal challenges and moral outrage from parents, supporters, etc.

"You may have some schools where they can drop sports, but we're going to have to stratify," Smith said. "Then you're going to have to change expectations … Philosophically, every sport is chasing championships."

https://www.cbssports.com/college-footb ... ettlement/

[LiveLaxLove]

Unless I missed something, isn't this all speculation at this point? I mean yes they ruled in the courts to allow schools to pay athletes, etc, but I'm guessing this all has to go through a boatload of red tape before anything is official. Or did it just magically go into effect?

Scholarship limits are extinct after this year. The recruiting class signing in November will be the first the experience this change. Many collegiate athletic departments are already operating this way... if they can afford it.

Scholarship limits remain. They may go away for 25-26 season concurrent with the proposed House settlement, but that's all it is at this point a proposed settlement of general terms. More secific terms are in the works. Don't expect that for months. Even after the details of the settlement are resolved, the judge has to agree to the settlement. I would not expect a slam dunk on this. Don't be surprised if scholarship limits remain for yet another year.

I'm telling you with 100% certainty that schools are operating in a way that scholarship limits do not exist for 2025-2026, only roster limits. You will see this on display before Independence Day.

[laxfan9999]

I talked to a power five women’s lacrosse coach and he said that the expectation is budgets will
Be cut to get to the 22 million or whatever the number is. He went so far as to say the coaches at their school
Weren’t going to really be recruiting until the new year started July 1 and the budget was there. They had no money left for June. Haven’t heard that before from a football
School.

[njbill]

Per Mit Winter
@WinterSportsLaw

Ohio St’s AD confirms it will pay all of the $22M in NIL comp allowed to be paid to its athletes.

He also says they plan to pay proportionally to the school’s male/female student population.

Which means NIL collectives will come in to provide additional comp in some sports.

This sounds like you are referring to the TV money from the lawsuit settlement, not NIL funds.